Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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Fraudulent call centers are the fastest-growing "business" on Telegram right now.
Fraudulent call centers are the fastest-growing "business" on Telegram right now.
The SCAM LIST channel detailed another scheme that hunts for the money of messenger users. We will briefly outline the key points.
These are not one-time schemes, but an established business with a network of channels, call offices, and huge advertising budgets. Since January 10, the authors of the channel have recorded at least 15 new active channels of this group, and another 7 were deleted by Telegram on January 17.
The SCAM LIST channel detailed another scheme that hunts for the money of messenger users. We will briefly outline the key points.
These are not one-time schemes, but an established business with a network of channels, call offices, and huge advertising budgets. Since January 10, the authors of the channel have recorded at least 15 new active channels of this group, and another 7 were deleted by Telegram on January 17.
Futures trading on BTC at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has resumed with a gap of 86,610-89,295$. Noticeable in size and even visible on higher time frames. If the price shows signs of growth and a bounce is realized - then closing the gap is an obvious target.
Other nearby gaps are not as important and are more visible on hourly time frames. Moreover, they are also above:
- 92,940-93,060$,
- 95,600-95,660$,
- 116,570-116,990$.
Meanwhile, the nearest gaps below are only 67,675-67,745$ since the beginning of November 2024 and 53,975-54,550$ since the beginning of September 2024.
Although the lower gaps seem to be significantly further - the unpleasant truth for bulls is that, according to our indicator, BTC is maintaining a steady downtrend on the weekly time frame - the price is heading towards them. The only question is what part of the upper gaps it can take on the way through the bounce.
This is not about expectations; it is only about interpreting market trend signals.
Other nearby gaps are not as important and are more visible on hourly time frames. Moreover, they are also above:
- 92,940-93,060$,
- 95,600-95,660$,
- 116,570-116,990$.
Meanwhile, the nearest gaps below are only 67,675-67,745$ since the beginning of November 2024 and 53,975-54,550$ since the beginning of September 2024.
Although the lower gaps seem to be significantly further - the unpleasant truth for bulls is that, according to our indicator, BTC is maintaining a steady downtrend on the weekly time frame - the price is heading towards them. The only question is what part of the upper gaps it can take on the way through the bounce.
This is not about expectations; it is only about interpreting market trend signals.
The BTC dominance chart continues the struggle for the horizontal level of 59.88%
The BTC dominance chart continues the struggle for the horizontal level of 59.88%. Although locally the dominance has shown a Strong signal of a potential high on the hourly timeframe - this is not a reason to expect a decline. Trends are more important than markers, and based on them, there is, for example, a return to a stable uptrend on the 2- and 3-hour timeframes, with target density up to 60.20%.
On the chart of the dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC, the density of targets is gathering from above. As can be clearly seen on the hourly timeframe. On January 23, we began the review of this metric with the words "The dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC still looks threatening for the growth prospects of the cryptocurrency market."
Now this threat, unfortunately for the bulls, is being realized. And, as mentioned, everything is currently "spinning" around the range of 8.756-9.099%. A breakout upwards and consolidation above 9.099%, if it happens, will become a very serious test for the bulls of the cryptocurrency market for the remainder of winter. However, if buyers manage to push the dominance below 8.756% - the picture for the bulls will again become much more positive.
Mirroring BTC, the dominance of stablecoins still maintains a stable downtrend on the 2-day timeframe. But the level of potential breakdown at 8.920% - for now, has been broken. The bulls of the cryptocurrency market have until the end of Monday to solve this problem. With a transition into an uptrend - just like that, the remainder of winter does not promise positivity for the bulls, and shorts will be a clear priority.
However, after the growth in December-January, the situation regarding trends looked extremely positive - everything happening since January 15 has clearly changed the balance of power.
Now this threat, unfortunately for the bulls, is being realized. And, as mentioned, everything is currently "spinning" around the range of 8.756-9.099%. A breakout upwards and consolidation above 9.099%, if it happens, will become a very serious test for the bulls of the cryptocurrency market for the remainder of winter. However, if buyers manage to push the dominance below 8.756% - the picture for the bulls will again become much more positive.
Mirroring BTC, the dominance of stablecoins still maintains a stable downtrend on the 2-day timeframe. But the level of potential breakdown at 8.920% - for now, has been broken. The bulls of the cryptocurrency market have until the end of Monday to solve this problem. With a transition into an uptrend - just like that, the remainder of winter does not promise positivity for the bulls, and shorts will be a clear priority.
However, after the growth in December-January, the situation regarding trends looked extremely positive - everything happening since January 15 has clearly changed the balance of power.
BTC impulsively went below 87,000$, which took down our long
BTC impulsively went below 87,000$, which took down our long. We did not see the expected rebound before this downward movement.
For the umpteenth time, we got "burned" by the rule not to work against the dominant trend on the 3-hour timeframe. When on January 18, #BTC showed a downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, we expected to exit on a rebound through averaging. As a result, the price has been falling down since then without any rebounds. The optimal option would have been to accept the loss on January 18 and instantly enter a short. An immediate reversal, to be fair, was particularly difficult in this case - the asset showed a drop of -1.8% literally right after the trend change at night. But overall, since the trend change on the 3-hour timeframe, the price at its peak has already dropped by -7.3%. With the selected leverage of 30, this is approximately +210%.
For the umpteenth time, we got "burned" by the rule not to work against the dominant trend on the 3-hour timeframe. When on January 18, #BTC showed a downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, we expected to exit on a rebound through averaging. As a result, the price has been falling down since then without any rebounds. The optimal option would have been to accept the loss on January 18 and instantly enter a short. An immediate reversal, to be fair, was particularly difficult in this case - the asset showed a drop of -1.8% literally right after the trend change at night. But overall, since the trend change on the 3-hour timeframe, the price at its peak has already dropped by -7.3%. With the selected leverage of 30, this is approximately +210%.
BTC is showing weakness today after a "ranging" Saturday
BTC is showing weakness today after a "ranging" Saturday and has not only created new downtrends but has also worked them out. Completely or partially.
Stable downtrends according to our indicator are shown today on three time frames - 45-minute, hourly, and 1.5-hour.
As seen from the screenshots, the basic targets for reduction have already been achieved on the 45-minute and hourly time frames. The last target of 87,861$ has not yet been reached on the 1.5-hour time frame.
Stable downtrends according to our indicator are shown today on three time frames - 45-minute, hourly, and 1.5-hour.
As seen from the screenshots, the basic targets for reduction have already been achieved on the 45-minute and hourly time frames. The last target of 87,861$ has not yet been reached on the 1.5-hour time frame.
Peter Brandt is once again painting a "below what is desired" scenario for BTC - a move to the 58,000-62,000$ zone.
The opinion of the renowned trader seems even more important this time after he predicted a price move to the 81,700$ level at the end of October, when the rate was 110,000$. He forecasted a dump in November.
Now, a new bearish forecast and the already mentioned target - 58,000-62,000$. On Brandt's chart, the key reference point from below is the area of 63,254$, with deeper levels around 58 840$ and 73,786$.
In a comment on X, the analyst writes - if BTC does not go there, he will not justify himself or explain why "the market did not understand the genius". Brandt reminds that he is wrong about 50% of the time, and that is normal. Being wrong is part of the market analyst's profession 👌
What is important in the logic of Brandt's new analysis:
- The market remains in a descending structure. After a series of local peaks, the price created pressure from above and is holding below key zones where there was previously support.
- The current rise resembles more of a correction. Brandt interprets it as a bounce within a range, rather than the start of a new upward impulse.
- Targets from below are predefined. 58,000-62,000$ looks like a zone where the price can "stretch" to relieve overheating and test demand.
The opinion of the renowned trader seems even more important this time after he predicted a price move to the 81,700$ level at the end of October, when the rate was 110,000$. He forecasted a dump in November.
Now, a new bearish forecast and the already mentioned target - 58,000-62,000$. On Brandt's chart, the key reference point from below is the area of 63,254$, with deeper levels around 58 840$ and 73,786$.
In a comment on X, the analyst writes - if BTC does not go there, he will not justify himself or explain why "the market did not understand the genius". Brandt reminds that he is wrong about 50% of the time, and that is normal. Being wrong is part of the market analyst's profession 👌
What is important in the logic of Brandt's new analysis:
- The market remains in a descending structure. After a series of local peaks, the price created pressure from above and is holding below key zones where there was previously support.
- The current rise resembles more of a correction. Brandt interprets it as a bounce within a range, rather than the start of a new upward impulse.
- Targets from below are predefined. 58,000-62,000$ looks like a zone where the price can "stretch" to relieve overheating and test demand.
New macro data from the USA: inflation expectations are cooling, the economy is holding up
New macro data from the USA: inflation expectations are cooling, the economy is holding up. For the Fed, this is, if not ideal, then a good mix. However, let's emphasize right away that such data alone is insufficient; a trend is needed.
First to the numbers, then to the conclusions:
- Business Activity Index (PMI) in the services sector (January): 52.5 against a forecast of 52.9 and a previous figure of 52.5.
First to the numbers, then to the conclusions:
- Business Activity Index (PMI) in the services sector (January): 52.5 against a forecast of 52.9 and a previous figure of 52.5.
It's already the third day, since January 21, that the BTC rate cannot break the 50-hour EMA.
It's already the third day, since January 21, that the BTC rate cannot break the 50-hour EMA. A clear indicator of the weakness of buyers.
All this time, after the "cut" that happened on January 21, the price has been in consolidation and there was simply nothing to write about BTC yesterday and today.
Let's repeat the key thought - as long as the asset is below the 50-hour EMA and below the nearest horizontal resistance according to our indicator P73 Key Horizontal Levels (former P73 Smart Liquidity Zones) - the price is looking down.
All this time, after the "cut" that happened on January 21, the price has been in consolidation and there was simply nothing to write about BTC yesterday and today.
Let's repeat the key thought - as long as the asset is below the 50-hour EMA and below the nearest horizontal resistance according to our indicator P73 Key Horizontal Levels (former P73 Smart Liquidity Zones) - the price is looking down.
Matrixport: Trump's tariffs are a tool, and the goal is volatility, to "squeeze" concessions
Matrixport: Trump's tariffs are a tool, and the goal is volatility, to "squeeze" concessions.
In the latest report, #Matrixport explains the logic of Trump's new tariff threats not as trade policy, but as a managed mechanism for creating market turbulence to extract concessions in negotiations.
In the latest report, #Matrixport explains the logic of Trump's new tariff threats not as trade policy, but as a managed mechanism for creating market turbulence to extract concessions in negotiations.
Swissblock: Gold is once again playing the role of a "spoiler" for BTC, this is a historically working scheme
Swissblock: Gold is once again playing the role of a "spoiler" for BTC, this is a historically working scheme.
According to #Swissblock, the divergence between gold (#XAU) and #BTC has repeatedly served as a leading indicator for the next movement. And now the market is once again showing the classic picture that many somehow ignore until it becomes obvious.
According to #Swissblock, the divergence between gold (#XAU) and #BTC has repeatedly served as a leading indicator for the next movement. And now the market is once again showing the classic picture that many somehow ignore until it becomes obvious.
The dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC still looks threatening for the growth prospects of the crypto market
The dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC still looks threatening for the growth prospects of the crypto market. A key issue that has arisen since the review on January 20 is that the metric has transitioned into a stable uptrend on the daily timeframe. With target levels of 8.955%, 9.212%, 9.469%.
Are there positive signals about the chances that the rebound from January 14-15 is over? Yes, but it's specifically about the chances:
Are there positive signals about the chances that the rebound from January 14-15 is over? Yes, but it's specifically about the chances:
Glassnode: BTC options showed a surge of optimism, but the market did not believe in the breakthrough
Glassnode: BTC options showed a surge of optimism, but the market did not believe in the breakthrough.
Analysts #Glassnode write that in mid-January BTC gained about +8% in just a couple of days, and in terms of options, this looked like a quick reversal of sentiment. Short-term traders began to bet more actively on growth, but in longer terms, market participants remained cautious. This means that in the coming days, people were buying "bullish bets", although over the month and quarter, the insurance against a downturn had not gone anywhere.
Analysts #Glassnode write that in mid-January BTC gained about +8% in just a couple of days, and in terms of options, this looked like a quick reversal of sentiment. Short-term traders began to bet more actively on growth, but in longer terms, market participants remained cautious. This means that in the coming days, people were buying "bullish bets", although over the month and quarter, the insurance against a downturn had not gone anywhere.
Important events for the crypto market on January 23 from the economic calendar.
Data from Japan has already been released this morning - Decision on the Bank of Japan's interest rate, Economic outlook report, Monetary policy report, and Regulator's press conference. The interest rate was kept on hold at 0.75%. But no one expected otherwise. The central bank had already raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points in mid-December, and the markets did not expect any new increases.
For the remainder of the day, important data will come from the States:
❗️- 16:45 in Kyiv / 17:45 in MSK / 19:45 in Astana - PMI for the services sector in the USA (January) and PMI for the manufacturing sector in the USA (January).
❗️- 17:00 in Kyiv / 18:00 in MSK / 20:00 in Astana - Forecasts from the University of Michigan based on January data: Expected inflation, Consumer inflation expectations index in the USA for the next 5 years, Consumer expectations index, Consumer sentiment index.
Data from Japan has already been released this morning - Decision on the Bank of Japan's interest rate, Economic outlook report, Monetary policy report, and Regulator's press conference. The interest rate was kept on hold at 0.75%. But no one expected otherwise. The central bank had already raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points in mid-December, and the markets did not expect any new increases.
For the remainder of the day, important data will come from the States:
❗️- 16:45 in Kyiv / 17:45 in MSK / 19:45 in Astana - PMI for the services sector in the USA (January) and PMI for the manufacturing sector in the USA (January).
❗️- 17:00 in Kyiv / 18:00 in MSK / 20:00 in Astana - Forecasts from the University of Michigan based on January data: Expected inflation, Consumer inflation expectations index in the USA for the next 5 years, Consumer expectations index, Consumer sentiment index.
P73 CryptoMarket Monitor shows today one of the most expressive signals of a potential low
P73 CryptoMarket Monitor shows today one of the most expressive signals of a potential low in the crypto market.
Our algorithm, which analyzes, let us remind you, the TOP-200 crypto assets by market capitalization through the lens of the P73 Trend & Target Dynamics indicator, just showed potential low marks on the daily TF for 51 assets among them at the opening of a new daily candle. Including BTC and ETH.
Our algorithm, which analyzes, let us remind you, the TOP-200 crypto assets by market capitalization through the lens of the P73 Trend & Target Dynamics indicator, just showed potential low marks on the daily TF for 51 assets among them at the opening of a new daily candle. Including BTC and ETH.
Econometrics: Bitcoin ETF has been showing a decline in net demand for more than 100 consecutive days, which is a historic record of weakness.
According to #Econometrics, cumulative BTC reserves in spot ETFs have been falling for over 100 days without interruption. This is the longest downtrend in net demand for ETFs in the history of observations.
Interestingly, last week the first signs of recovery in inflows began to appear, but fresh macroeconomic turbulence this week quickly dampened this momentum. The market has again returned to a state of increased volatility, meaning inflows into ETFs are not yet becoming a sustainable driver.
All this confirms that the regime shift in demand that #BTC is waiting for to ensure recovery has not yet occurred.
According to #Econometrics, cumulative BTC reserves in spot ETFs have been falling for over 100 days without interruption. This is the longest downtrend in net demand for ETFs in the history of observations.
Interestingly, last week the first signs of recovery in inflows began to appear, but fresh macroeconomic turbulence this week quickly dampened this momentum. The market has again returned to a state of increased volatility, meaning inflows into ETFs are not yet becoming a sustainable driver.
All this confirms that the regime shift in demand that #BTC is waiting for to ensure recovery has not yet occurred.
Glassnode: the BTC market has once again hit the zone where short-term holders are turning into sellers
Glassnode: the BTC market has once again hit the zone where short-term holders are turning into sellers.
Analysts at #Glassnode note that the recent attempt to break above the baseline cost of STH (short-term holders) at $98,400 has faltered due to pressure from holders with coin ages of 3-6 months. Their average entry price is around $112,600, and it is they who have begun to more actively realize losses, breaking the upward momentum. Proponents of the idea of a bear market are taking losses and exiting positions.
Analysts at #Glassnode note that the recent attempt to break above the baseline cost of STH (short-term holders) at $98,400 has faltered due to pressure from holders with coin ages of 3-6 months. Their average entry price is around $112,600, and it is they who have begun to more actively realize losses, breaking the upward momentum. Proponents of the idea of a bear market are taking losses and exiting positions.
Analyst: BTC has currently soared above the rate of adoption - next is either a pause or a pullback to the "base."
Analyst: BTC has currently soared above the rate of adoption - next is either a pause or a pullback to the "base."
Analyst Timothy Peterson presents a simple idea: in the long run, #BTC cannot consistently grow faster than about 2 times the rate of network adoption. If the price accelerates more than that - it is always not a "new reality," but an overheating that the market will then compensate for either with a correction or a long range.
Analyst Timothy Peterson presents a simple idea: in the long run, #BTC cannot consistently grow faster than about 2 times the rate of network adoption. If the price accelerates more than that - it is always not a "new reality," but an overheating that the market will then compensate for either with a correction or a long range.
A new block of macro data from the USA has been released, and so far the first reaction of the crypto market to it is negative.
A new block of macro data from the USA has been released, and so far the first reaction of the crypto market to it is negative. The reaction of BTC is on the screenshot.
What about the data? First of all, and this is a positive for the US economy - GDP has been revised upward, from 4.3% to 4.4%. Considering how often the topic of increasing recession risks in 2026 was raised in 2025, this is a clear positive for risky asset markets. The economy is not just 'holding on' - it is growing faster than the market is comfortable with.
What about the data? First of all, and this is a positive for the US economy - GDP has been revised upward, from 4.3% to 4.4%. Considering how often the topic of increasing recession risks in 2026 was raised in 2025, this is a clear positive for risky asset markets. The economy is not just 'holding on' - it is growing faster than the market is comfortable with.
Our new indicator for subscribers will likely be available this week. Unless there are unforeseen circumstances with electricity, etc.
Let us remind you that at the beginning of January, a subscriber of our indicators asked us to think about an order block indicator.
Our result - strictly speaking according to technical analysis, is not quite about order blocks.
What will the new P73 Smart Liquidity Zones do? It is an indicator of supply/demand zones + a trend filter. Let us say right away that it determines trends exactly the same way as our flagship indicator P73 Trend & Target Dynamics. We do not abandon the author's logic of trend determination.
Let us remind you that at the beginning of January, a subscriber of our indicators asked us to think about an order block indicator.
Our result - strictly speaking according to technical analysis, is not quite about order blocks.
What will the new P73 Smart Liquidity Zones do? It is an indicator of supply/demand zones + a trend filter. Let us say right away that it determines trends exactly the same way as our flagship indicator P73 Trend & Target Dynamics. We do not abandon the author's logic of trend determination.
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