Analyst: BTC has currently soared above the rate of adoption - next is either a pause or a pullback to the "base."
Analyst Timothy Peterson presents a simple idea: in the long run, #BTC cannot consistently grow faster than about 2 times the rate of network adoption. If the price accelerates more than that - it is always not a "new reality," but an overheating that the market will then compensate for either with a correction or a long range.
On the chart - the adoption curve of #BTC by addresses and the price.
The curve is a conditional "fundamental trajectory", how #BTC should grow if its value is driven by real network expansion and not just speculative impulse.
What Peterson says about the numbers:
- the rate of adoption growth over the past year: about 23%
- "intrinsic value" (fundamental base growth): about 46%. Those same 2 times the rate of network adoption.
Not that such a picture now cancels out the chances of a continued bull market in 2026 (they are small for a number of other reasons), but this is +1 explanation for why the price behaved that way in 2025.
In the long term, #BTC relies on adoption. The price may soar, but it will still be pulled back to the base.
Let’s remind that Timothy Peterson (nsquaredvalue in X) is a financial analyst and researcher of the crypto market, known for his fair value models for #BTC and studies on long-term and seasonal price cycles. His analytical works and methodologies are regularly cited in #Bloomberg, #CNBC, and #Forbes.
