BTC impulsively went below 87,000$, which took down our long. We did not see the expected rebound before this downward movement.
For the umpteenth time, we got "burned" by the rule not to work against the dominant trend on the 3-hour timeframe. When on January 18, #BTC showed a downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, we expected to exit on a rebound through averaging. As a result, the price has been falling down since then without any rebounds. The optimal option would have been to accept the loss on January 18 and instantly enter a short. An immediate reversal, to be fair, was particularly difficult in this case - the asset showed a drop of -1.8% literally right after the trend change at night. But overall, since the trend change on the 3-hour timeframe, the price at its peak has already dropped by -7.3%. With the selected leverage of 30, this is approximately +210%.
It's not enough to create an indicator; you need to force yourself to work according to its signals 🥴.
We will stay out of the market for a while. The bulls are not showing strength for longs, shorting from the current levels is a mediocre idea at least until our indicator breaks the sustained uptrend on the 2-day timeframe (and there are 1 day and 6 hours left until this candle closes). If this bearish signal is indeed received - for the remainder of winter, it will most likely be a bearish trend. At most - after a rebound.
The current key risk for the bulls remaining in the position is that, as has been repeatedly mentioned this week, breaking the zone of $87,457-$87,779 is a threat to impulsively drop straight to the next support at $84,485. So far, this zone has been broken.
On the hourly timeframe, as can be seen, the impulse to $86,622 has gathered all the density of lower targets. But if there is no return above $87,457-$87,779, the price will continue to be pulled lower.
What to pay attention to now - on the 30-minute timeframe for #BTC, there is already a third Strong signal of a potential low.
It's not that this was a guarantee of a rebound or, even more so, a reversal. But for those who successfully caught this short movement - it makes sense to think about at least partially closing the position. Moreover, on the hourly timeframes, there is a ghostly chance for a "Dragon" pattern from January 18. At the same time, it is important to remember - until the "spine line" (this is the trend line from January 18, and now it is around $89,420) is broken, it is not worth talking about the chances of this pattern working out at all, it has not yet formed.
