A new block of macro data from the USA has been released, and so far the first reaction of the crypto market to it is negative.

A new block of macro data from the USA has been released, and so far the first reaction of the crypto market to it is negative. The reaction of BTC is on the screenshot.

What about the data? First of all, and this is a positive for the US economy - GDP has been revised upward, from 4.3% to 4.4%. Considering how often the topic of increasing recession risks in 2026 was raised in 2025, this is a clear positive for risky asset markets. The economy is not just 'holding on' - it is growing faster than the market is comfortable with.

Overall picture by the numbers:

- U.S. GDP (q/q) (Q3): 4.4% against a forecast of 4.3% and a previous figure of 3.8%.

- Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits: 200,000 against a forecast of 209,000 and a previous figure of 199,000.

- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Q3): 2.90% against a forecast of 2.90% and a previous figure of 2.60%.

- GDP Deflator (q/q) (Q3): 3.7% against a forecast of 3.7% and a previous figure of 2.1%.

- Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits: 1,849 million against a previous figure of 1,875 million.

So why is the crypto market falling? Not because of GDP. Macroeconomic data overall showed exactly the set that the Fed does not like to see before a possible rate cut (no one is expecting it in January, so we're already talking about the next meetings).

Initial unemployment benefit claims - below forecast, the labor market will remain strong: few layoffs, pressure on wages may persist. According to the overall data, those who have already lost their jobs, on average, find a new one faster.

Quarterly Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index - forecasted to be higher than the previous figure. This is very important - inflation is not falling fast enough for the Fed to relax. The market is currently falling primarily due to this indicator.

GDP Deflator (Q3): 3.7%, which is within the forecast and significantly higher than the previous (2.1%). This is a broad inflation indicator for the economy: 'prices in the system' are still high. Specifically in this moment, the GDP data is indeed somewhat negative.

This whole combination is simple and unpleasant for risky asset markets. After all, growth is accelerating (GDP), but the labor market is not cooling down and inflation is 'sticky'. In general, in the big picture, it is not a 'soft landing', it is closer to the scenario 'the economy is too strong for rates to be lowered quickly'.

How this will affect the Fed's policy - has already been said. A reason not to rush to lower rates. Roughly speaking, 'Why rush to lower rates when the economy is doing well anyway?'. The logic here is simple: strong growth + strong labor market + rising personal consumption expenditures index = risks of rekindling inflation.

Therefore, we have the corresponding market reaction. But it's still early to say that this data will 'flatten' the anticipated rebound. Most of the data came in line with forecasts and they were already priced in. The current decline is still considered as liquidity replenishment before another attempt to break important resistances. In the case of #BTC, this is currently, we remind, EMA 50 of the hourly timeframe and the horizontal level of 90,314$.