龙哥要赚一万个大饼

Market sentiment has reached freezing point. ETH price struggles around $2,880, and panic selling is clearly visible on-chain: a giant whale sold 5,500 ETH at an average price of $2,912 within 3 days; an ancient address that had been dormant for 9 years transferred 50,000 ETH to exchanges, raising market concerns. From a technical perspective, $2,742 is the key defense line; once broken, it could trigger nearly $287 million in long liquidations, exacerbating the decline.

However, on the other side is cold greed. A giant whale bought over 70,000 ETH against the trend within 5 days, worth over 200 million dollars. Moreover, funds are rotating from WBTC to ETH, indicating a bet on the relative performance of the latter. The most critical data divergence has appeared: the number of active Ethereum addresses (7-day average) has reached a historical high of about 718,000. Prices are sluggish while active usage is high, which is a classic bullish accumulation signal.

This morning when I got up, I saw the market was all red

I was woken up repeatedly by my phone this morning, and when I opened it, various trading apps were pushing notifications—Bitcoin dropped below 86000 dollars, Ethereum approached 2800 dollars. Rubbing my eyes, I checked the time, Beijing time January 26th morning, and thought: This week's opening is really exciting.

The Moments and groups are already in an uproar, some are sharing liquidation screenshots, some are shouting 'the bull has left', and others quietly post 'it's time to add positions'. I’m staring at the market, over 200,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, more than 600 million dollars vanished, this kind of scene is a first this year.

At the beginning of 2026, while the market was still discussing the direction of the new cycle, a cultural symbol originating from the Chinese community had quietly completed a magnificent transformation.

Binance Life reached a new high of $0.280438 on January 14, 2026, soaring 234% from the low point in November 2025. As the first Chinese Meme coin to land on Binance's main spot trading, it has firmly established itself as the leader in this category, holding 67% of the market share.

Cultural Breakthrough: From Community Memes to Asset Totems

The rise of Binance Life is far from a simple price fluctuation. It began during the National Day holiday in 2025 with an interesting community interaction, where Binance co-founder He Yi and CZ's social media dynamics unexpectedly ignited this fuse.

The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has surged to 75%, and risk-averse sentiment is sweeping in like a tsunami. In the past 24 hours, over 200,000 investors have been forcibly liquidated amid extreme volatility, with liquidation amounts reaching as high as 664 million USD.

📉 Market Overview: Panic is spreading, critical points are in distress

Current Price: Bitcoin briefly dipped to 86,434.5 USD, currently struggling near 87,800 USD, with a weekly decline of about 6.21%.
Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 25 (Extreme Fear), with a strong risk-averse atmosphere enveloping the market.
Chain Reaction: Ethereum is also under pressure, falling back to around 2,847 USD, with major cryptocurrencies generally following suit.

ETH is weakly fluctuating near the key psychological level of $2950, facing strong resistance at $3000 above, while below it faces the test of a dense liquidation zone. Market sentiment and capital flow have shown significant differentiation: mainstream ETF funds are collectively withdrawing from BTC and ETH, while some keen 'smart money' has begun to tentatively layout in high-elasticity sectors.

1. Capital flow perspective: institutions are 'putting on the brakes', and the market has started a stock game.

Recently, the signals released from the funding situation are very clear: mainstream assets are experiencing a phase of profit-taking and risk aversion.

On January 25th, Beijing time, the market was lifeless, but blockchain does not lie. When we put ENA's candlestick chart and the on-chain capital flow chart together, a classic picture of 'market cognitive dissonance' emerged.

🎯 Key Contradiction Point:

Price Narrative: $0.177, down 80% from the peak, over 21% drop since the beginning of the year, with 'death spiral' all over the chart.
On-chain Narrative: The project team and whale addresses bought over $10 million of ENA against the market trend in the past week. Particularly on January 21st, 40 million ENA (about $7.15 million) was mysteriously transferred within 4 minutes, with part possibly entering wallets intended for long-term custody.

Bitcoin stands firm at $93K; is it due to whales hoarding or geopolitical crises?

In the early hours of Monday, when the numbers on the Bitcoin trading screen jumped over $93,000, a dull market that had lasted nearly three months was completely ignited, with over $260 million in short positions being devoured in the roar.

The signal for the market to hold its breath has finally appeared: as of January 6, 2026, the price of Bitcoin firmly stands above $93,000. In the past week, this king of cryptocurrencies has achieved an astonishing growth of 7%, while Ethereum and Solana have performed even more impressively, with increases nearing 9%.

Brothers, did you see the ETH roller coaster today? It poked at $3200 and then bounced back. Both sides are already at each other's throats at this position. Don't let long-term narratives fool you; short-term trading is about playing with sharp knives. The following is the driest intraday analysis, helping you to see the battlefield clearly.

📈 Core K-Line Structure and Long/Short Battle Points

Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $3164, with the key being the evolution of patterns on the hourly chart:

1. Key K-Line Combination:
The early morning breakout line: The volume candle in the early morning peaked at $3227, but the upper shadow is very long, indicating massive selling pressure in the $3200-$3230 area. This is a typical 'test-failure' K-Line.

Gold has surged to a historic high of $4500, while Bitcoin is tangled around $90,000; veteran investors are already sensing that the tide is turning completely.

Gold has seen its largest annual increase since 1979, while Bitcoin has remained stagnant, nearly flatlining.

This rare bifurcation in the market not only hints at asset rotation but also exposes deep fractures in the global monetary system—by 2026, the rules of the game in the crypto world will be completely rewritten.

1. Macro shifts: Understanding the 'subtext' of the Federal Reserve

To understand the global capital flows in 2026, one must first decipher the riddle posed by the Federal Reserve.

Dear fans, it is now December 30, 2025. As we look back at this annual candlestick that is worthy of being recorded in history, our feelings are undoubtedly complex. Bitcoin just touched the dream high of $126,000 in October this year, but is now fluctuating around $89,000, having dropped more than 25% from its peak. Was this rollercoaster year the end of a bull market or the prelude to a grander narrative?
Today, we won't talk about hollow slogans; instead, we'll use facts and data to break down the truth of the profound changes in 2025, and outline the key pathways you must grasp in 2026.

On December 30, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) once again fell below the psychological level of $3000, currently situated in the range of $2920-$2950. This breakdown is not just a numerical change, but a deep clearing of long and short positions and a clearing of market sentiment at the end of the year. For investors, the current situation is fraught with crisis, yet it also contains significant layout signals for the coming months.

🎯 Core Situation: Market outlook after the breakdown

Current Price Status: Effectively broke below $3000, and the technical pattern has deteriorated in the short term.
Technical Alert: A "Death Cross" has appeared on the daily chart (the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average), accompanied by a "Bearish Flag" risk, which reflects a long-term loss of confidence in the market.

Guys, I woke up to see BTC playing around 88K again. Arthur Hayes' statement about 'short-term fluctuations between 80K and 100K' seems too gentle to me—this isn't just fluctuation, it's clearly a bulls vs. bears meat grinder! But the more it gets like this, the more we need to see where the chips are being pushed under the table.
Let me be clear: I tend to believe that the current pullback is a 'liquidity stress test' midway through a bull market, not the end of the trend. Why?

1. What you think of as 'tapering' might actually be 'changing the disguise to inject liquidity'. The market is afraid of the Federal Reserve withdrawing liquidity, but Arthur Hayes revealed a key point: the Federal Reserve's new 'reserve management purchases' are essentially targeted infusions to major banks. Liquidity will always overflow, and Bitcoin, the 'ultimate sponge', may arrive late but will not be absent.

Brothers, at 2 PM Beijing time, ETH is undergoing a brutal test, with the price having fallen below the key psychological level of 3,000 USD, currently reported at about 2,937 USD, with a 24-hour drop of over 6%. The market is in mourning, but we need to see the underlying data of the long-short battle more clearly.

Three major drivers of the crash

Macroeconomic liquidity exhaustion: Year-end market liquidity is evaporating rapidly. This amplifies any decline, forming a vicious cycle where 'every drop evolves into a larger fall.'

High leverage cascading liquidation: Within 24 hours, over 600 million USD contracts were liquidated across the network, with 184,600 people liquidated. A well-known whale's 25x ETH long position was also liquidated to only 28% of its position, creating significant downward pressure.

OMG, ETH just plunged again! The market is so red that I feel anxious, but this might be the 'golden pit' we've all been waiting for! Friends, don't just stare at the candlestick chart with a long face, I'll make a bet with you: 99% of the market may have overlooked a huge positive development that's happening!

🔥 The truth behind the crash: Are whales 'picking up passengers' in reverse?

First, let's look at this sharp drop; it really is shocking:

Price: It just dropped directly to around $3,200, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours.
Reason: $520 million worth of ETH has flowed into Binance, clearly indicating that big players are 'creating panic' to scoop up cheap chips.

#美SEC推动加密创新监管
Bitcoin has fallen for two consecutive days, briefly dropping below $89,000. Amid market anxiety, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins delivered an uplifting message for the crypto world: to provide "compliant pathways" for blockchain innovation.

"If we want to promote innovation, investment, and job growth in the United States, we must provide compliant pathways that allow market participants to leverage the unique capabilities of this new technology," said SEC Chairman Paul Atkins at a recent meeting.

At the same time he was speaking, the cryptocurrency market was experiencing turmoil, with Bitcoin continuously declining in early December, briefly falling below the critical support level of $89,000.

Dear friends, next Wednesday (December 10th) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its last interest rate decision of the year. The global markets are holding their breath, and after experiencing significant fluctuations earlier, the price of Bitcoin is currently stabilizing above $92,000, presenting a kind of 'tense calm.' This meeting is definitely not as simple as 'to cut or not to cut'; it could become a key turning point that determines the market narrative by the end of 2025 or even the beginning of 2026. Below, we will deeply analyze the core highlights of this meeting and our response strategy.

Dear family, today is December 6, and right before our eyes, the macro policy's wind vane has shifted again. The freshly released minutes from the Fed's December FOMC meeting have poured cold water on the market—indicating a 'hawkish' tone, explicitly stating that inflation poses an upward risk, and even suggesting that the current interest rates may be 'not restrictive enough'. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts throughout next year have rapidly shrunk to less than two times.

What does this mean for our crypto circle? Is a cold winter approaching, or is it yet another excellent 'golden pit'? Let's get straight to the point.

🔍 Latest policy signals: it's not that there won't be interest rate hikes, but rather a 'hawkish rate cut'

Brothers, the market has just undergone a bloody washout. Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, and Ethereum (ETH) has lost the critical support of $2,900, with astonishing liquidation across the entire network.
$ETH
But beneath the surface of panic, on-chain data reveals three shocking reversal signals, pointing to a severely undervalued golden pit.

Signal 1: The supply crisis has reached its peak.

Data shows that Ethereum's exchange reserves have plummeted to a historic low of 13.3 million coins. Whales are frantically withdrawing coins from trading platforms. What does this mean? The circulating supply available for sale is drying up, and a potential 'supply shock' is ready to unfold.

As both bulls and bears become entrenched around $2800, the crypto market holds its breath for Ethereum's next breakout direction.

As of the time of writing, Ethereum fluctuates around $2830, reaching a high of $2864 and a low of $2764 within 24 hours.

Only about 6.6% left to rise to the psychological barrier of $3000, market sentiment reveals anticipation amidst caution.

Core data overview

Current price: $2831
Key support: $2620 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level)
Recent resistance: $2890 → $2960
Breakthrough target: Psychological barrier of $3000

The market is filled with pessimism after the crash, but savvy investors are reading different signals from the data.

As Ethereum's price has remained low recently, market sentiment has once again plunged into extreme pessimism. Especially this Friday, when ETH broke below the crucial support of $2650, with a single-day drop exceeding 9%, triggering a wave of panic selling.

The Coinbase premium index has dropped to -0.128, the lowest level since February, indicating that the selling pressure from American investors is particularly strong.

But it is precisely at this moment of widespread panic that we need to think calmly: Has the most dangerous moment passed? Multiple data points suggest that dawn may be just around the corner.