Guys, I woke up to see BTC playing around 88K again. Arthur Hayes' statement about 'short-term fluctuations between 80K and 100K' seems too gentle to me—this isn't just fluctuation, it's clearly a bulls vs. bears meat grinder! But the more it gets like this, the more we need to see where the chips are being pushed under the table.
Let me be clear: I tend to believe that the current pullback is a 'liquidity stress test' midway through a bull market, not the end of the trend. Why?
1. What you think of as 'tapering' might actually be 'changing the disguise to inject liquidity'. The market is afraid of the Federal Reserve withdrawing liquidity, but Arthur Hayes revealed a key point: the Federal Reserve's new 'reserve management purchases' are essentially targeted infusions to major banks. Liquidity will always overflow, and Bitcoin, the 'ultimate sponge', may arrive late but will not be absent.
2. The options market has revealed its 'fox's tail.' On December 26, there are 23 billion US dollars in options expiring, and 85K is filled with put options. What does this mean? The main force has a strong willingness to pin the price above 85K before expiration, turning these put options into worthless paper. Therefore, 85K is not a technical bottom, but rather a 'main force cost line'; whether it breaks or not, it is a matter of heaven and hell.
3. The most panic often comes at the safest times. A quarterly decline may create the worst in three years? That's right. But looking back at the historical candlestick chart, which bull market's main rising wave did not have a despairing deep squat wash before? Retail investors are asking 'Is the bull still there?', while smart money is quietly picking up bloody chips.
So, my operational framework is very clear:
Short term (by the end of the year): I have my eyes firmly fixed on 85K. As long as the closing price does not effectively drop below, I view every sharp decline as a discount buying opportunity. If it breaks, I will reduce my position to avoid risk, but I will also prepare my ammunition because that could be a golden pit.
Medium term (Q1 next year): Once the market generally understands and prices the liquidity of the 'new version of QE', the target for Bitcoin is definitely not the previous high of 126,000, but rather the 143,000 mentioned in the Citigroup report, or even higher. I will consider increasing my position after breaking through 100,000 dollars and stabilizing.
Brothers, a bull market never begins with cheers, but grows in doubt and ends in frenzy. Now is precisely when the market is most doubtful.
Remember one thing: liquidity never sleeps, it only shifts. When it surges again, I hope you are already on the Bitcoin boat.
The above is my personal market observation and thinking, and does not constitute any investment advice.
