This morning when I got up, I saw the market was all red
I was woken up repeatedly by my phone this morning, and when I opened it, various trading apps were pushing notifications—Bitcoin dropped below 86000 dollars, Ethereum approached 2800 dollars. Rubbing my eyes, I checked the time, Beijing time January 26th morning, and thought: This week's opening is really exciting.
The Moments and groups are already in an uproar, some are sharing liquidation screenshots, some are shouting 'the bull has left', and others quietly post 'it's time to add positions'. I’m staring at the market, over 200,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, more than 600 million dollars vanished, this kind of scene is a first this year.
What's wrong with the market?
To be honest, today's drop feels a bit like a 'blanket attack.' It's not just cryptocurrencies; I looked at U.S. stock futures, gold, and foreign exchange, and almost everything is moving. This kind of correlated market usually indicates that there are macro-level issues rather than problems within the industry.
Sure enough, after checking the news, several messages are fermenting at the same time:
1. U.S.-Canada trade relations suddenly became tense, with Trump threatening a possible 100% tariff on Canadian goods, stirring the nerves of global trade again;
2. The foreign exchange market is also unsettled, with signals emerging that the U.S. may intervene in the forex market;
3. The aircraft carriers are in position in the Middle East, and geopolitical risk indicators are starting to rise.
Looking at these events individually might not trigger such a large fluctuation, but together, the market's risk aversion sentiment surged. Gold shot up to $5,000, and silver skyrocketed; funds are obviously running into traditional safe-haven assets.
Interesting on-chain movements
The market software is all red, but if you look at the on-chain data, you'll find another side to the story.
It seems whales are not afraid. I saw analysis showing that in the past few days, some addresses quietly bought over 70,000 ETH, worth over $200 million. This kind of sustained buying during a downturn is not a retail investor's behavior.
What's even more interesting is that the usage of the Ethereum network is actually rising, with the number of active addresses hitting a new high. The price has dropped, but more people are using it—this divergence means something that seasoned players know.
Of course, not everyone is that resolute. I noticed an ancient ETH address that had been dormant for 9 years moved, transferring out a large amount of Ethereum. The movement of such 'ancient' holders always makes people wonder: did they see risks we haven't noticed, or is it purely for living needs?
My observations and reflections
Having been in this market for a long time, you gradually learn to distinguish between 'market sentiment' and 'market facts.' Today's fact is: macro events triggered short-term risk aversion, leading to the selling of risk assets. But what about sentiment? Is it panic, following the herd, or calm?
My personal view is:
Short-term fluctuations are magnified by macro factors, but the fundamental narrative of the industry remains unchanged.
I carefully read the statements from traditional financial titans at the Davos Forum. The CEO of BlackRock said that financial on-chain is an 'irreversible trend,' while the head of UBS said that blockchain will be the infrastructure of future banks. Words spoken by them carry different weight.
Trump said he wants to maintain the U.S. as the 'crypto capital,' and while a politician's words should be taken with a grain of salt, it at least indicates that crypto assets are now an undeniable presence.
What's the outlook going forward?
I know many people are most concerned about: has the drop finished? Can we buy the dip?
To be honest, no one can give you a 100% answer. But I can share my thoughts:
1. The period of concentrated macro events is not over; the U.S. government may shut down, and the Federal Reserve is set to meet, all of which will continue to affect market sentiment. Volatility may persist for a while.
2. Observe the movements of whales and institutions; they often have more information and patience than retail investors. On-chain data doesn't lie.
3. Position management is always more important than predicting price movements. In this kind of market, surviving is more important than how much you earn.
My own operation today was: no significant increase or decrease in positions, just a small portion of funds placed on orders at key positions to catch some panic selling. Most of the funds remain unchanged, continuing to hold the assets I am optimistic about.
Written at the end
When the market crashes, it's easiest to see who is here to invest and who is here to gamble. Looking at the liquidation data for 200,000 people, the same old saying applies: never use money you can't afford to lose to leverage you can't handle.
Markets are born in despair, grow in hesitation, mature in optimism, and end in frenzy. Which stage are we in now? Everyone might have a different answer.
But one thing I firmly believe: every deep correction caused by external shocks presents a long-term investment opportunity for those who truly believe in this industry. The only question is whether you have enough awareness, patience, and funds to seize it.
That's all for today; the market is still moving, and I will continue to monitor it. Stay calm, keep thinking, and we can all make it to the next cycle.
