On December 30, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) once again fell below the psychological level of $3000, currently situated in the range of $2920-$2950. This breakdown is not just a numerical change, but a deep clearing of long and short positions and a clearing of market sentiment at the end of the year. For investors, the current situation is fraught with crisis, yet it also contains significant layout signals for the coming months.
🎯 Core Situation: Market outlook after the breakdown
Current Price Status: Effectively broke below $3000, and the technical pattern has deteriorated in the short term.
Technical Alert: A "Death Cross" has appeared on the daily chart (the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average), accompanied by a "Bearish Flag" risk, which reflects a long-term loss of confidence in the market.
Key battleground: The next core support range is $2800-$2870. This is the "lifeline" to determine whether the market will continue to decline or can build a bottom for a rebound. If breached, the downward targets are $2615 and $2500.
⚔️ In-depth analysis: Who is selling? Who is buying?
The market's divergence is vividly reflected in on-chain data:
Main bearish forces:
Whales taking profits:
Suspected institutional wallets have transferred over 20,000 ETH to exchanges in the past 3 months, forming continuous selling pressure.
Whales have sold over 35,000 ETH within 11 days through complex strategies to lock in profits.
Continuous capital outflow: The US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a continuous net outflow recently, with a maximum single-day outflow of nearly $40 million.
Ecosystem activity cooling: Network fee income and DEX trading volume have significantly declined over the past month, weakening the fundamental support in the short term.
Key bullish signals:
Whales quietly accumulating: After the price fell below $3000, on-chain monitoring detected approximately $4 billion (about 1.36 million ETH) worth of assets flowing out of exchanges, indicating that large funds are accumulating at lower prices.
Staking confidence remains intact: The Ethereum staking rate has exceeded 25% of the total supply, and long-term holders are still voting with their actions.
Strong support area competition: The $2800-$2870 area has successfully defended multiple times in the past month, and it is a fortress that bears must break.
📈 Market Forecast and Operational Strategy
The current market volatility has compressed to a low level, indicating a direction will be chosen. The key is to observe the following points:
1. Decisive battle at the "lifeline": $2800-$2870 is the last stronghold for bulls. If it can stabilize with reduced volume and establish a bottom structure in this area, a rebound is expected. If it breaks with increased volume, be wary of the market accelerating to find a bottom.
2. Reversal confirmation signal: Any effective rebound must be accompanied by increased volume to re-establish above $3000 and observe whether whale selling pressure significantly eases and whether ETF funds turn into net inflows.
3. Maintain patience and discipline: Avoid blind "bottom-fishing" before clear reversal signals appear. For holders, consider accumulating in batches near key support levels, but be sure to set stop-loss orders; for spectators, waiting for right-side signals is more prudent.
💎 Conclusion
The breach of 3000 points marks the breaking of the old balance. The current market is at the intersection of panic emotion release and long-term value reconstruction. The games of the whales and the defense of key support all point to one conclusion: the real trend will be established in the coming weeks.
