Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years
CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years. Real pain, people exited positions at a loss and the scale of this process is impressive.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
The average duration of the BTC/gold bear market is about 14 months, and they are coming to an end.
The average duration of the BTC/gold bear market is about 14 months, and they are coming to an end. Such data is provided by #Bitwise.
But before discussing the details, it should be reminded here again that Bitwise is an interested party, the issuer of spot crypto-ETFs. They are always ready to talk about the fabulous prospects of the crypto market.
But before discussing the details, it should be reminded here again that Bitwise is an interested party, the issuer of spot crypto-ETFs. They are always ready to talk about the fabulous prospects of the crypto market.
The US is once again on the brink of a shutdown - a halt to government operations
The US is once again on the brink of a shutdown - a halt to government operations. As #Bloomberg reminds us, this could start as early as January 31.
Democrats threaten to block the spending package if Republicans do not remove funding for DHS (Department of Homeland Security). The reason for the escalation is the scandal surrounding the actions of border agents/ICE in Minnesota and deaths during protests. To get the bill through the Senate, at least 7 Democratic votes are needed, but some moderates have already said 'no.'
Democrats threaten to block the spending package if Republicans do not remove funding for DHS (Department of Homeland Security). The reason for the escalation is the scandal surrounding the actions of border agents/ICE in Minnesota and deaths during protests. To get the bill through the Senate, at least 7 Democratic votes are needed, but some moderates have already said 'no.'
Glassnode: BTC is currently trading on the edge of the key "market cost price"
Glassnode: BTC is currently trading on the edge of the key "market cost price". The asset's price has fallen to 87 300$ - exactly into the average buying zone of active participants, but still below the cost price of short-term holders. This is a classic zone where the market decides: either a rebound and stabilization, or continued pressure and a move to the next support.
BTC dominance confirms the likelihood of a continued market rebound - there is a steady downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe. It is hard to believe that dominance can decrease in a falling market.
Everything important regarding this metric has already been said last night. Now, it is important, as before, not to settle above the level of 59.88%. And on the 2-day timeframe, it is crucial to start declining from two potential high markers.
And all of this will still be insufficient. Because for a full-fledged growth of altcoins, we need to see:
- stable downtrends of #BTC dominance on timeframes of at least 12 hours and above,
- a breakout of the level of 58.08% and a consolidation below.
Everything important regarding this metric has already been said last night. Now, it is important, as before, not to settle above the level of 59.88%. And on the 2-day timeframe, it is crucial to start declining from two potential high markers.
And all of this will still be insufficient. Because for a full-fledged growth of altcoins, we need to see:
- stable downtrends of #BTC dominance on timeframes of at least 12 hours and above,
- a breakout of the level of 58.08% and a consolidation below.
BTC finally confirms the start of a rebound with a significant trend. Our indicator has just shown a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe for the asset, with target levels of $88,391, $88,859, $89,326. The potential breakdown level is $87,223.
To achieve these targets, it is essential to break above the 50 EMA on the hourly timeframe and hold above it. This moving average has consistently acted as an insurmountable resistance since January 15 (!), showing only one significant fake breakout to the upside on January 23.
As we can see, during yesterday’s decline, #BTC once again demonstrated strong signals of a potential low on the hourly timeframe. These are the strongest extreme markers that our indicator shows.
Some may argue that the hourly timeframe is too minor to consider its signals as important - for such readers, we will provide a more complete picture - the hourly timeframe and trends on it since January 12.
To achieve these targets, it is essential to break above the 50 EMA on the hourly timeframe and hold above it. This moving average has consistently acted as an insurmountable resistance since January 15 (!), showing only one significant fake breakout to the upside on January 23.
As we can see, during yesterday’s decline, #BTC once again demonstrated strong signals of a potential low on the hourly timeframe. These are the strongest extreme markers that our indicator shows.
Some may argue that the hourly timeframe is too minor to consider its signals as important - for such readers, we will provide a more complete picture - the hourly timeframe and trends on it since January 12.
Checkonchain: The capitulation of "weak hands" in BTC has already begun.
As the price of #BTC fell to 86 000$ , short-term holders started to realize losses. This refers to the ratio of realized profit to realized loss among short-term holders (those who bought relatively recently). Right now, it is going deep into negative territory - meaning fresh participants are massively closing positions at a loss, unable to withstand the downturn.
Why is this important for the market? For two reasons:
- when short-term holders capitulate, downward pressure often slows down - sellers "burn out";
• simultaneously, this is a signal that the market is not yet in a phase of strength: any rebound can be sold by those who want to "at least break even".
Such spikes in realized losses often appear near a local bottom because that is where the "washing out" of overheated entries occurs. But, of course, no one can guarantee a reversal - if demand does not kick in, capitulation may enter a second wave.
The dry conclusion is that the drop to 86 000$ has already forced the short-term segment to surrender. Now the market will check if there is a real buyer below this level or if it was just the first series of "cleansing".
As the price of #BTC fell to 86 000$ , short-term holders started to realize losses. This refers to the ratio of realized profit to realized loss among short-term holders (those who bought relatively recently). Right now, it is going deep into negative territory - meaning fresh participants are massively closing positions at a loss, unable to withstand the downturn.
Why is this important for the market? For two reasons:
- when short-term holders capitulate, downward pressure often slows down - sellers "burn out";
• simultaneously, this is a signal that the market is not yet in a phase of strength: any rebound can be sold by those who want to "at least break even".
Such spikes in realized losses often appear near a local bottom because that is where the "washing out" of overheated entries occurs. But, of course, no one can guarantee a reversal - if demand does not kick in, capitulation may enter a second wave.
The dry conclusion is that the drop to 86 000$ has already forced the short-term segment to surrender. Now the market will check if there is a real buyer below this level or if it was just the first series of "cleansing".
Peter Brandt: BTC is heading to $66,800, cancellation - only a consolidation above $93,000.
Peter Brandt: BTC is heading to $66,800, cancellation - only a consolidation above $93,000.
The well-known analyst indicates in his new technical analysis that on the daily chart, the #BTC market has received another sell signal: the movement within the bearish channel appears to be complete, and the price remains below key resistances. Importantly, the author explicitly notes that charts can 'repaint' as new candles form, so this is not a verdict, but rather the current assessment of the structure.
The well-known analyst indicates in his new technical analysis that on the daily chart, the #BTC market has received another sell signal: the movement within the bearish channel appears to be complete, and the price remains below key resistances. Importantly, the author explicitly notes that charts can 'repaint' as new candles form, so this is not a verdict, but rather the current assessment of the structure.
Alphractal: the BTC market "hurts," but as the blockchain shows, this is not capitulation
Alphractal: the BTC market "hurts," but as the blockchain shows, this is not capitulation.
According to #Alphractal, the current correction of #BTC looks like a stage when the market has already cooled down after speculation, but has still not reached the classic "bottom of the cycle."
Firstly, NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) is decreasing but remains positive. NUPL, let us remind you, shows the state of BTC holders "on paper":
According to #Alphractal, the current correction of #BTC looks like a stage when the market has already cooled down after speculation, but has still not reached the classic "bottom of the cycle."
Firstly, NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) is decreasing but remains positive. NUPL, let us remind you, shows the state of BTC holders "on paper":
Santiment: After the pullback, the crypto market returned to the undervaluation zone, as seen in the 30-day MVRV
Santiment: After the pullback, the crypto market returned to the undervaluation zone, as seen in the 30-day MVRV.
#Santiment draws attention to a simple principle: the lower the 30-day MVRV, the less "overheating" there is, making it calmer to enter a position. The MVRV here is the ratio of the current price to the average purchase price of active participants over the last month. If the indicator goes negative, it means that most "average traders" are already at a loss, and the pressure to take profits decreases.
#Santiment draws attention to a simple principle: the lower the 30-day MVRV, the less "overheating" there is, making it calmer to enter a position. The MVRV here is the ratio of the current price to the average purchase price of active participants over the last month. If the indicator goes negative, it means that most "average traders" are already at a loss, and the pressure to take profits decreases.
30 assets from the TOP-200 by market capitalization on the 12-hour time frame according to our indicator showed a low mark
30 assets from the TOP-200 by market capitalization on the 12-hour time frame according to our indicator showed a potential low mark on the current candle. What does this mean and how should it be interpreted? It suggests a high probability of a significant rebound and short- to medium-term growth of the cryptocurrency market, starting in the coming days. AT THE SAME TIME, during these upcoming days, the low may still be updated; this is an important remark. A rebound requires confirmation from stable trends on lower time frames.
Cryptoquant: BTC is not supported by buyers, but by the absence of sellers
Cryptoquant: BTC is not supported by buyers, but by the absence of sellers.
The net realized profit/loss from #BTC has collapsed by 97% and has effectively returned to zero. Such data is provided by #Cryptoquant. This means that market participants have almost stopped taking profits - and have also nearly stopped taking losses. The money that usually flows into the market through mass profit-taking is simply not there now.
The net realized profit/loss from #BTC has collapsed by 97% and has effectively returned to zero. Such data is provided by #Cryptoquant. This means that market participants have almost stopped taking profits - and have also nearly stopped taking losses. The money that usually flows into the market through mass profit-taking is simply not there now.
Matrixport: BTC remains in correction as long as the price is below the 21-week moving average.
A fresh report from #Matrixport shows a simple and categorical logic: the 21-week moving average has long acted as a boundary for market phases. They have already written about this. Above it, the market tends to develop as "bullish," while below it, it transitions into a correction phase with increased risks.
#BTC broke this line downwards in the fourth quarter of 2025, which immediately increased the likelihood of a deeper correction. At the end of December, a rebound formed, but the most telling aspect is that the price returned to the 21-week average and received a clear rejection. This means the market attempted to recover, but the "door upwards" is still closed. Therefore, to grow, liquidity needs to be accumulated from below.
On the chart, the key level is now around 96 044$ - this is the zone where the price "got stuck" after the pullback. As long as BTC remains below the 21-week average, the overall regime remains corrective. The upper risk zone according to the model lies around $121,078, while the lower one is about $71,011.
The market can bounce around within the range as much as it wants, but as long as the 21-week average is above, the trend will resemble "bounces in correction," rather than a sustainable recovery.
A fresh report from #Matrixport shows a simple and categorical logic: the 21-week moving average has long acted as a boundary for market phases. They have already written about this. Above it, the market tends to develop as "bullish," while below it, it transitions into a correction phase with increased risks.
#BTC broke this line downwards in the fourth quarter of 2025, which immediately increased the likelihood of a deeper correction. At the end of December, a rebound formed, but the most telling aspect is that the price returned to the 21-week average and received a clear rejection. This means the market attempted to recover, but the "door upwards" is still closed. Therefore, to grow, liquidity needs to be accumulated from below.
On the chart, the key level is now around 96 044$ - this is the zone where the price "got stuck" after the pullback. As long as BTC remains below the 21-week average, the overall regime remains corrective. The upper risk zone according to the model lies around $121,078, while the lower one is about $71,011.
The market can bounce around within the range as much as it wants, but as long as the 21-week average is above, the trend will resemble "bounces in correction," rather than a sustainable recovery.
Negative signal for the growth prospects of BTC in the near future - on the BTCUSDLONGS chart
Negative signal for the growth prospects of BTC in the near future - on the BTCUSDLONGS chart. The chart again shows a stable uptrend on the daily timeframe according to our indicator.
Let’s remind that on the Trading View ticker BTCUSDLONGS, it is convenient to monitor how players on #Bitfinex accumulate and unload longs. They accumulate them as the asset falls and unload them as it rises. There is a pronounced inverse correlation with the price of #BTC, and this is typical behavior of 'smart money.' They unload longs to the crowd at the moment when the crowd is actively buying and pushing the price up. To realize their profits - they need stable demand. Therefore, the unloading of longs on Bitfinex was indeed positive for growth prospects. And accumulating longs there is negative.
Let’s remind that on the Trading View ticker BTCUSDLONGS, it is convenient to monitor how players on #Bitfinex accumulate and unload longs. They accumulate them as the asset falls and unload them as it rises. There is a pronounced inverse correlation with the price of #BTC, and this is typical behavior of 'smart money.' They unload longs to the crowd at the moment when the crowd is actively buying and pushing the price up. To realize their profits - they need stable demand. Therefore, the unloading of longs on Bitfinex was indeed positive for growth prospects. And accumulating longs there is negative.
Fraudulent call centers are the fastest-growing "business" on Telegram right now.
Fraudulent call centers are the fastest-growing "business" on Telegram right now.
The SCAM LIST channel detailed another scheme that hunts for the money of messenger users. We will briefly outline the key points.
These are not one-time schemes, but an established business with a network of channels, call offices, and huge advertising budgets. Since January 10, the authors of the channel have recorded at least 15 new active channels of this group, and another 7 were deleted by Telegram on January 17.
The SCAM LIST channel detailed another scheme that hunts for the money of messenger users. We will briefly outline the key points.
These are not one-time schemes, but an established business with a network of channels, call offices, and huge advertising budgets. Since January 10, the authors of the channel have recorded at least 15 new active channels of this group, and another 7 were deleted by Telegram on January 17.
Futures trading on BTC at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has resumed with a gap of 86,610-89,295$. Noticeable in size and even visible on higher time frames. If the price shows signs of growth and a bounce is realized - then closing the gap is an obvious target.
Other nearby gaps are not as important and are more visible on hourly time frames. Moreover, they are also above:
- 92,940-93,060$,
- 95,600-95,660$,
- 116,570-116,990$.
Meanwhile, the nearest gaps below are only 67,675-67,745$ since the beginning of November 2024 and 53,975-54,550$ since the beginning of September 2024.
Although the lower gaps seem to be significantly further - the unpleasant truth for bulls is that, according to our indicator, BTC is maintaining a steady downtrend on the weekly time frame - the price is heading towards them. The only question is what part of the upper gaps it can take on the way through the bounce.
This is not about expectations; it is only about interpreting market trend signals.
Other nearby gaps are not as important and are more visible on hourly time frames. Moreover, they are also above:
- 92,940-93,060$,
- 95,600-95,660$,
- 116,570-116,990$.
Meanwhile, the nearest gaps below are only 67,675-67,745$ since the beginning of November 2024 and 53,975-54,550$ since the beginning of September 2024.
Although the lower gaps seem to be significantly further - the unpleasant truth for bulls is that, according to our indicator, BTC is maintaining a steady downtrend on the weekly time frame - the price is heading towards them. The only question is what part of the upper gaps it can take on the way through the bounce.
This is not about expectations; it is only about interpreting market trend signals.
The BTC dominance chart continues the struggle for the horizontal level of 59.88%
The BTC dominance chart continues the struggle for the horizontal level of 59.88%. Although locally the dominance has shown a Strong signal of a potential high on the hourly timeframe - this is not a reason to expect a decline. Trends are more important than markers, and based on them, there is, for example, a return to a stable uptrend on the 2- and 3-hour timeframes, with target density up to 60.20%.
On the chart of the dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC, the density of targets is gathering from above. As can be clearly seen on the hourly timeframe. On January 23, we began the review of this metric with the words "The dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC still looks threatening for the growth prospects of the cryptocurrency market."
Now this threat, unfortunately for the bulls, is being realized. And, as mentioned, everything is currently "spinning" around the range of 8.756-9.099%. A breakout upwards and consolidation above 9.099%, if it happens, will become a very serious test for the bulls of the cryptocurrency market for the remainder of winter. However, if buyers manage to push the dominance below 8.756% - the picture for the bulls will again become much more positive.
Mirroring BTC, the dominance of stablecoins still maintains a stable downtrend on the 2-day timeframe. But the level of potential breakdown at 8.920% - for now, has been broken. The bulls of the cryptocurrency market have until the end of Monday to solve this problem. With a transition into an uptrend - just like that, the remainder of winter does not promise positivity for the bulls, and shorts will be a clear priority.
However, after the growth in December-January, the situation regarding trends looked extremely positive - everything happening since January 15 has clearly changed the balance of power.
Now this threat, unfortunately for the bulls, is being realized. And, as mentioned, everything is currently "spinning" around the range of 8.756-9.099%. A breakout upwards and consolidation above 9.099%, if it happens, will become a very serious test for the bulls of the cryptocurrency market for the remainder of winter. However, if buyers manage to push the dominance below 8.756% - the picture for the bulls will again become much more positive.
Mirroring BTC, the dominance of stablecoins still maintains a stable downtrend on the 2-day timeframe. But the level of potential breakdown at 8.920% - for now, has been broken. The bulls of the cryptocurrency market have until the end of Monday to solve this problem. With a transition into an uptrend - just like that, the remainder of winter does not promise positivity for the bulls, and shorts will be a clear priority.
However, after the growth in December-January, the situation regarding trends looked extremely positive - everything happening since January 15 has clearly changed the balance of power.
BTC impulsively went below 87,000$, which took down our long
BTC impulsively went below 87,000$, which took down our long. We did not see the expected rebound before this downward movement.
For the umpteenth time, we got "burned" by the rule not to work against the dominant trend on the 3-hour timeframe. When on January 18, #BTC showed a downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, we expected to exit on a rebound through averaging. As a result, the price has been falling down since then without any rebounds. The optimal option would have been to accept the loss on January 18 and instantly enter a short. An immediate reversal, to be fair, was particularly difficult in this case - the asset showed a drop of -1.8% literally right after the trend change at night. But overall, since the trend change on the 3-hour timeframe, the price at its peak has already dropped by -7.3%. With the selected leverage of 30, this is approximately +210%.
For the umpteenth time, we got "burned" by the rule not to work against the dominant trend on the 3-hour timeframe. When on January 18, #BTC showed a downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, we expected to exit on a rebound through averaging. As a result, the price has been falling down since then without any rebounds. The optimal option would have been to accept the loss on January 18 and instantly enter a short. An immediate reversal, to be fair, was particularly difficult in this case - the asset showed a drop of -1.8% literally right after the trend change at night. But overall, since the trend change on the 3-hour timeframe, the price at its peak has already dropped by -7.3%. With the selected leverage of 30, this is approximately +210%.
BTC is showing weakness today after a "ranging" Saturday
BTC is showing weakness today after a "ranging" Saturday and has not only created new downtrends but has also worked them out. Completely or partially.
Stable downtrends according to our indicator are shown today on three time frames - 45-minute, hourly, and 1.5-hour.
As seen from the screenshots, the basic targets for reduction have already been achieved on the 45-minute and hourly time frames. The last target of 87,861$ has not yet been reached on the 1.5-hour time frame.
Stable downtrends according to our indicator are shown today on three time frames - 45-minute, hourly, and 1.5-hour.
As seen from the screenshots, the basic targets for reduction have already been achieved on the 45-minute and hourly time frames. The last target of 87,861$ has not yet been reached on the 1.5-hour time frame.
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