熊市攒币

$BTC finally broke below the previous low of 80,000. This month will continue to test the bottom, and then after an oversold weekly rebound for a month or two, we will continue to complete the C-wave decline. This wave of decline is expected to bottom out with certain large institutions facing explosive failures, negative rumors circulating about a certain exchange, or severe liquidation events occurring on-chain. In short, we are waiting for a major negative event to come out, then push down with a deep needle before entering the market to seize a rebound.

Today, I closed the short position of #ETH at 24,000 USDT. Since August last year, I have been building positions in sync with Binance, holding for almost half a year. Currently, the decline has reached an extent of one hundred percent, and if it keeps falling without rolling over the position and adding shorts, the profit margin is getting smaller. In the future, if it drops below 2,000, I plan to gradually close out my positions.

$BTC is ready to welcome the arrival of the big C wave, but unfortunately, the hundreds of thousands of U short positions I painstakingly built up over half a year were accidentally closed.

The weekly rebound of #BTC has a high probability of being over. Next, it will retreat to the support level near the previous low of 80,000. It should be difficult to rebound back to 95,000 to recover the mistakenly operated positions. This year, it will ultimately break below 80,000 and start a wave C decline.

The newly opened $RIVER has already broken through the previous high of 66 and is currently in the final topping phase at the weekly level. The last wave of a strong coin's main rise usually lasts for 4 to 6 weeks, and in most cases, it ends in the fourth week. The last week of the topping often sees the largest increase in the main rise. Last week, RIVER's increase reached 157%, and it is unlikely to exceed this increase this week. Either last week's high of 79 is the major top of this round, or the price will spike to around 90 before quickly falling back, thus ending the main rise. The weekly closing point this week will likely be below 79.

My position in RIVER is not large. Currently, the funding rate at the high position is over -1% per day, which is acceptable for short-term trading. However, when it reached -2% in just one hour previously, it became unmanageable. Therefore, I currently have no stop-loss plan unless the funding rate rises significantly, then I will consider stopping losses and exiting.

I am still operating according to the previous model. After being trapped at Binance for a distance, I will open a new order on the adjacent platform to copy my trapped positions. Currently, the success rate for shorting at the bottom on the adjacent platform is 100%. When Bitcoin was trapped at 108,000, I shorted near the range of 115,000 to 120,000. When ZEC was trapped at 630, I shorted near 700 (currently the cost is over 500 due to adding a lot of positions in the 400-500 range). When Ethereum was trapped at 4200, I shorted near 4600.

Due to the high funding rate of $RIVER, I do not plan to hold it long-term. After seeing a rapid decline following the peak, I will close the position and will not hold it for half a year like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or ZEC. Yesterday, the overall market fell sharply, but it continued to move independently. It is highly likely to complete the topping in the form of a spike. The risk of this coin is much greater than the previous operations of $ZEC , $BCH , and $XMR . The main risk still comes from the funding rate. It is advised to wait and observe, and not to follow the trend.

After mistakenly closing all long positions last time, I haven't encountered suitable opportunities for a rebound. The recent market has been relatively dull; I've been observing the strong altcoin $RIVER for more than half a month. Today, I plan to test the peak of #river with a mini position, mainly to accumulate my experience in judging entry points and identifying peaks. This cryptocurrency is not my long-term target; the funding rate is high, and it does not meet my criteria of a 10 billion market cap.

The reason I believe it may be approaching its peak is that it has rebounded nearly 30 times from the recent short-term bottom. As a new coin that was launched at the end of last year, its current speculative market cap has reached 3 billion, indicating a high degree of speculation. A double top pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart, with MACD showing momentum divergence, RSI overbought, and the price approaching previous highs but with a significant decrease in trading volume resulting in a volume-price divergence. After switching the funding rate from a 1-hour cycle to a 4-hour cycle, the overall level has significantly dropped from over 20% the previous day to now 1-2%, showing a clear decrease. These signs indicate that most of the earlier short positions (including some large short holders) have been liquidated, and the willingness of shorts to enter the market is limited. The chips available for the market maker to harvest have greatly reduced, and the upward space for the future market is limited. The stop-loss price is set at 79, and the liquidation price is controlled at 200+, with funding rates skyrocketing to 1% for reducing positions or stopping losses. I have also opened a bot to record the funding rate situation.

I want to emphasize again: due to the long-term high funding rate of this cryptocurrency, I am only testing with a very small position this time, aiming only to enhance my ability to judge the peaks and entry points of the cryptocurrency; making a profit is not the goal, so please do not follow blindly!

It is somewhat regrettable that when establishing the position in Monero $XMR , it did not exhibit a double top pattern like River and $ZEC , ultimately only forming a single top, leading to a failed position. Otherwise, Monero would be a good long-term position target.

Today I made a super mistake, #XMR plummeted and turned from loss to profit. I originally planned to first close my XMR position and wait for a rebound near the second peak to rebuild my position. As a result, when I was closing my position, I accidentally clicked to close everything, and I also mistakenly closed all my ZEC positions next to it, wiping out all my long positions of $BTC , $ETH , $ZEC that I had worked hard to arrange over the past six months in one go. I had planned to wait until this year's C wave decline to close all positions, but today a mistake in operation prematurely ended the layout plan for my long positions. Currently, I only have a little long position left on OK and Gate, and I can only wait for opportunities to build long positions on Binance later. I can only hope for a rebound in the B wave to rebuild my long positions at a higher point.

$BTC hit 95000 support level, and without obvious negative factors, the short-term range is expected to continue oscillating between 95000 and 98000.

#XMR previously predicted the second target level as 760, corresponding to a historical gain of 50%. Currently, the highest gain has reached 53% to 800, achieving the second target level. It remains uncertain whether 800 will become the major top of this cycle.

The bottom-fishing order for Ant on Gate has already turned profitable. The main purpose of the Gate Ant position is to bottom-fish the trapped positions on Binance and to接力 test the top. When the Gate position shifts from floating loss to profit, it often indicates that the first top may be forming. After opening an Ant position on Gate at 12.2W last year to bottom-fish the trapped positions on Binance, a major top soon appeared. However, during this XMR correction, the funding rate has remained positive, indicating that long positions remain solid, and the medium-term trend has not truly weakened. It is expected that after the correction ends, the price will likely make a second attempt toward the previous high, or even break above the previous high and rally further.

Operationally, I placed a sell-off order between 600 and 660. The price dropped to 657 yesterday, and only one order has been executed so far. From the market chart, this correction is relatively shallow. After the next rebound, we will continue to monitor whether 800 will form a true major top. $ZEC has no operational plans in the near term and will continue to hold and observe.

$BTC yesterday rebounded to around 98,000 resistance level, then faced resistance, and is expected to temporarily retrace to around 95,000 before attempting to break through the key resistance zone of 98,000-100,000. Given the current market volume and sentiment, without any sudden major positive catalyst, this rebound is unlikely to sustainably break above the 100,000 mark. Three short-selling limit orders were executed between 95,000-97,000, and three pending orders remain unfilled above 98,000. Continue holding the long short position and wait for the end of the B-wave rally.

#XMR continued its explosive rally yesterday, peaking at 800 early this morning before starting to pull back. The short squeeze loss reached $3.9 million, setting a new historical record, far exceeding the $1.88 million loss during the black swan event on October 10 last year. Technically, the MACD indicator is opening upward and has not flattened, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. RSI has risen to 95, entering the extreme overbought zone, and the daily chart shows a long upper shadow shooting star with increased volume, signaling short-term adjustment needs. Currently, XMR has retraced by about 10%, which falls within the range of a strong pullback. Whether the 800 high can be broken this week remains to be observed. Since O.K. does not offer XMR contracts, GATE's funding rate is negative, while Binance's rate has remained positive since the bottom rebound (even when price surged to 800, it never turned negative), indicating that the major players control most of the XMR supply on Binance and are continuously squeezing shorts. As long as the funding rate remains positive, the supply won't loosen. All limit orders between 700-800 were filled yesterday, bringing the current cost down to 631. A small 'ant position' was opened on GATE for a bottom-fishing entry at a cost of 700. Recent shorting of XMR requires extreme caution. My margin is sufficient and position size is small; risk tolerance varies greatly among individuals—strongly advise against blindly following the short strategy on XMR.

$ZEC continued its rebound yesterday, thankfully without the 50% surge seen in DSAH within a single day. The current rally remains within normal range, with the target still set at the 460-470 zone. If the price rises above 500, I plan to add more short positions.

#BTC After two months of effort, the resistance level of 95,000 has finally been broken. I placed a short order above 95,000 last November, which has already been executed. From the perspective of cycle and technical analysis, Bitcoin's three consecutive monthly declines have only resulted in a technical rebound. The rebound target remains as previously mentioned: 97,000–98,000. Breaking through the 100,000 mark will be extremely difficult; even if it happens, it will likely be a temporary spike aimed at triggering a short squeeze, and it's unlikely to sustain above 100,000. This level not only holds a massive amount of trapped long positions but is also near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high, marking a key bull-bear dividing line. Technically, the 20-week moving average is about to cross below the 50-week moving average, the monthly moving averages have formed a death cross, and trading volume continues to shrink—these are all core signals indicating a weakening long-term trend. On the macro side, the Federal Reserve is expected to significantly reduce the frequency of rate cuts in the first half of the year, and if inflation rebounds, rate cuts might even be paused. Under tightening liquidity conditions, Bitcoin's rebound potential will be severely constrained. This rally will likely trap another batch of bulls who are targeting 150,000–200,000.

Position-wise, the holding at $ZEC remains unchanged. Yesterday, $XMR triggered a significant rebound in DASH, but ZEC's rebound was weak. After the core development team collectively left, the coin now lacks dominant market control, resulting in limited upside potential, likely capped between 460–470. No plans to add positions below 500. XMR maintains a strong bullish structure, with price continuously pushing upward along the 4-hour chart. In the short term, a pullback is expected before further upward momentum resumes. It's unusual that the funding rate has remained positive, especially given the severe short-term overbought condition—normally, this would attract a large number of short positions, causing the funding rate to turn negative. This anomaly may indicate extremely high concentration of筹码 (trading positions) among a single major player. This dominant fund is exceptionally strong, making shorting extremely risky. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. I will continue testing the top on XMR. If a deep correction occurs, I will close part of the position before continuing to test the top. Yesterday, I initiated a neutral robot strategy between 630–720, leveraging the broad-range consolidation during the top-building phase, and will continue monitoring XMR's top formation.

Cryptocurrencies that broke the previous bull market all-time high and have a market cap exceeding ten billion, aside from the three major coins $BTC , $ETH , and BNB, there were only four altcoins in the past four years: $ZEC , XRP, SOL, and XMR.

XRP and SOL broke their all-time highs during the main bull market surge, ZEC completed its breakout in the late stage of the bull market, while XMR created a new high during the transition from bull to bear market, making it a rarer type.

Looking at performance after the breakout:
BTC rose 82% after breaking its previous high;
ETH rose only 1.6% after breaking its previous high;
BNB rose 99% after breaking its previous high;
XRP rose 8.6% after breaking its previous high;
SOL rose 13% after breaking its previous high;
ZEC rose 100% after breaking its previous high.

Overall, ETH, XRP, and SOL are considered false breakouts, with post-breakout gains generally below 10%. In contrast, BTC, BNB, and ZEC are true breakouts, triggering main bull runs of 80% to 100%. BTC, as the asset with the strongest consensus, achieving over 80% in its final bull run is normal. BNB, as the world's largest exchange platform coin, achieving a 99% rally due to strong global consensus is also reasonable. ZEC managed to rise 100% primarily because its market cap at the time of breakout was small—only 4.3 billion—giving it greater elasticity during the bull run. Thus, for large-cap coins, a false breakout after breaking a new high typically results in gains around 10%, while a true breakout leads to gains between 80% and 100%, with a maximum rarely exceeding 100%.

#XMR broke its all-time high when its market cap was already close to ten billion, indicating a relatively large float, and market consensus was limited, with the main players having high control. Currently, the market is in a bull-to-bear transition phase, so it's unlikely the main players will take massive risks to push the price up 100% to 1000. Therefore, my assessment of XMR is: the first target is 30%, corresponding to 670, which has already been reached today. The second target is 50%, corresponding to 780. It is expected that a first peak will form around 670 this week, followed by a pullback. If the second peak fails to break a new high, the major top is likely around 670.
If it continues to break through, it will likely move toward around 780.

Currently, the strategy remains cautious, with small position building on the left side. Additional positions will be added around 670. After the second peak forms, we can consider opening new positions on OK to catch the bottom. The current focus is on whether 670 will form the first peak. It is recommended to continue observing, and to consider shorting only after the second peak formation is confirmed, which would be a more solid approach. Please credit Xiong Da.

Woke up to #XMR breaking the previous historical high of 521, market cap approaching 11 billion. Breaking new highs, circulating market cap exceeding 10 billion, meeting my target for building a long short position. Preparing to start gradual, left-side exploratory accumulation soon. The target for this upward surge is likely to catch up with the market cap of $BCH , entering the top ten range. The peak target area is expected to be between 650–750, with a possible extreme of 800, but breaking 1,000 is unlikely.

Planning to initiate a left-side ant-position exploratory accumulation on Binance, gradually placing limit orders up to 700, with liquidation price controlled at 1000. When the second top appears, preparing to open a new position on OK to bottom-fish the position I got trapped in on Binance. The overall top accumulation cycle is expected to take about one month.

A reminder to everyone: Do not blindly follow me in shorting XMR recently. I have substantial floating profits on my $BTC , ETH, and ZEC, and my own margin is still ample, so I can afford this exploratory, proactive 'eating the trap' strategy. If you blindly follow shorting, the risk will be very high.

Currently, there are no signs of topping out, and no divergence has appeared yet—this is a typical left-side trading scenario. Shorting carries extremely high risk, especially with high leverage and short-term speculation; liquidation during the topping phase can happen in seconds.

If you also want to take a long-term short position, I suggest:

1. Wait until my left-side exploratory position on Binance is deeply trapped before considering bottom-fishing.

2. Daily fixed investment of short positions, over a period of 1–2 months.

3. Wait for the second top to show divergence before building a position.

For the above strategies, it is recommended to keep the liquidation price below 1000. If the price rises to 700, the liquidation price can be raised to 1100—ensure sufficient margin is maintained. Those without strong mental resilience and patience are advised to observe and refrain from participating in shorting; just watch my accumulation process instead.

$ZEC belongs to the same sector and may experience a slight follow-up rebound, expected to reach around 450, but overall it is a weak rebound—slow to rise, fast to fall. My ZEC position will remain unchanged in the short term, with no plans to add short positions. The current focus is gradually building a long-term short position in Monero.

The B-wave rebound of #zec has already ended; next, patiently hold the position and wait for the price to break below 300 before the large C-wave decline begins. Historically, the $ZEC has shown relatively strong resistance and resilience, but the overall market structure will shift to weak bullish and fewer strong moves, making逆势上涨 scenarios rare. More often, we'll see technical rebounds after oversold conditions, similar to the current situation.

#zec Short-term break below 480, many people will likely try to catch the bottom and rebound here, including recent large-scale funds entering the market to go long on ZEC, with millions of dollars in buy orders at 470-480, attempting to catch the bottom. After all, the price has repeatedly dropped to around 500 before being quickly pulled back, creating repeated oscillations, which have formed a market-wide habit of believing that buying below 500 always leads to profit. This repeated oscillation is a strategy used by major players to cultivate the expectation that buying the dip always makes money, setting the stage for a later concentrated harvest.

From a structural perspective, the current situation appears to be nearing the end of a B-wave rebound, with price oscillating near key support levels, aiming to convince more people that 480 is a solid support level. Once market sentiment for buying the dip is fully activated, the major players only need one large-volume bearish candle to trap all these bottom-fishing investors in the 480 area. Currently, the technical pattern only needs one decisive large bearish candle to confirm the end of the B-wave rebound and the start of the C-wave decline. Keep a close eye on whether the major players will suddenly target the 470-480 bottom-fishing funds in the coming weeks.

#BTC has continued its rebound trend recently, reaching around 95000 yesterday, but still has not achieved a valid breakout. If the price breaks above 95000 this month, it may surge again to around 98000, at which point we will add short positions in batches as originally planned.

$ZEC The next two weeks will be a critical window. The weekly chart is about to form a death cross. If the price fails to break through the previous high of 555 and effectively breaks below the 480 support level, the B-wave rebound will likely be over, and the subsequent C-wave decline will begin. Keep current positions unchanged for now and wait to observe the height of the Bitcoin rebound.

$BTC recently broke through the platform consolidation range, with short-term expectations of a rebound above the 95000 level. From the monthly chart structure, the previous three consecutive monthly declines followed by a single month rebound is a normal technical correction; overall, it is still seen as a rebound rather than a reversal trend.

In terms of operations, #bch has been a tentative increase in short positions these days, with a relatively small position. If it continues to rise, I will continue to add positions. The current price is quite close to the high point of this bull market in the 720 range, so one should be cautious of a price breakout leading to a major upward wave. If it breaks 720, I will stop adding positions. For those holding bch short positions, it is advisable to keep the position light and not too large.

$ZEC short positions have not changed, Bitcoin continues to rebound upwards, and zec may not necessarily continue to break the 555 high. 555 is expected to become the high point of this weekly rebound, and those fantasizing about zec going above 1000 can stay tuned.

The analysis is good, and now maintaining the coin price at a high level is to sell mining machines. This year's outcome will be the same as KAS back in the day; the bubble will eventually be burst.

Wishing everyone a successful investment in the new year, #zec breaks below 300 soon!

#zec Yesterday hit a new high of 555, with a total of 3000U orders at 550. The margin call next door at ok will stabilize the liquidation price around 800, having closed a 3000U ETH short position. Yesterday, Binance's funding rate surged rapidly, likely due to whale short positions entering the market. The overall market remains weak, so let's patiently wait for the subsequent ZEC correction.

Yesterday, #zec 530-540 range had a transaction of 7000U orders. Looking at the current trend, there may be a possibility of a spike before it ends; positions below 600 face a higher risk of liquidation. The liquidation prices for large holders and whales are concentrated in the 550-580 range. Once triggered, a chain liquidation is likely to cause a spike. However, considering that ZEC has a relatively large market capitalization, the extent of the spike is expected to be limited, usually around 10%. Recent high-leverage holders need to be particularly cautious of spike risks, and mid-to-long-term positions should keep the liquidation price around 800 for relative safety.

If the price breaks through 550 later, the adjacent OK positions will stop rolling over and adding short positions. When the price reaches 600, the two positions on the Binance platform will simultaneously stop rolling over and adding short positions. I currently have sufficient margin and can moderately increase positions with a grid strategy, but for investors with insufficient margin, it is crucial to avoid blind replenishment. It is advisable to keep the liquidation price around 800 as much as possible. If the margin is indeed limited, ensure that the liquidation price does not drop below 700. Now, just patiently wait for Bitcoin to choose its direction next month.

Yesterday, #zec broke through the neckline with increased volume, which exceeded previous expectations, leading to a misjudgment of the height of this rebound. However, from a broader trend perspective, I still believe this is just a wave B rebound at the weekly level (with three consecutive weeks of decreased volume), and the subsequent wave C decline has not changed. It is important to note that after breaking through the neckline, market variables have increased; if you are positioning for a long short, it is best to keep the liquidation price above 800, and moving it up to 1000 USD would be even safer.

To focus on the breakout of $ZEC , I closed my position when $XMR was close to the breakeven price yesterday. Looking back at ZEC's rebound from this round's low of 300, the rebound has reached a maximum of 527 for a 75% increase, with three positions collectively giving back 60,000 U in profits, experiencing another round of roller coaster market conditions. Including the three roller coaster experiences during the top accumulation phase, the current weekly level has completed the fourth roller coaster, which is also a core repeated roller coaster fluctuation testing the patience of long positions. As long as there is no major mistake in the judgment of the broader trend, the intermediate fluctuations should not be overly concerned.

In terms of operations, I executed a limit order of 12,000 U in the 480-520 range, and the current main position still has over 10,000 U in floating profit, while the adjacent position’s floating profit has shrunk to over 4,000 U, and the floating profit of the USDC position has been completely given back. During this round of rebound, I added some short positions worth several tens of thousands of U, bringing the total position to around 250,000 U. To guard against extreme upward risks, I also added some margin yesterday, keeping the liquidation price around 800.

This round of upward movement has caused a large number of high-leverage shorts to be liquidated. From the smart money data, 85% of the shorts are in a losing state, with only a few long-term shorts still holding profits. Judging from the funding rate leveling off, the willingness to add new shorts after the breakout is limited; they are either passively liquidated or afraid to increase their position. The next focus needs to be on whether ZEC can stabilize above 500. If it continues to rise, there is still a lot of trapped selling pressure above. If it cannot stabilize above 500 and turns back within the next three trading days, yesterday's breakout is likely a false breakout. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on defense, prioritize increasing the margin ratio, cautiously add positions, and closely monitor the effectiveness of the 500 support.

#Pippin Since the transaction after the needle was inserted, I have observed for two days but still haven't seen a peak signal. A daily funding fee of about 3% needs to be paid, and I have closed my position this morning. The topping trend of this cryptocurrency has completely deviated from the conventional trend, making it difficult to predict the final outcome of the game between the market makers and large funds. For us retail investors, the most prudent strategy at this stage is still to observe and not participate, as both going long and short carry significant risks.

In terms of market, Bitcoin has neither been able to break through the key resistance level of 95000 nor has it explored new lows around 80000, with both bulls and bears temporarily caught in a stalemate. The current market needs a significant positive or negative news stimulus to break the existing balance. Whether there will be a rate cut in January may disrupt this balance, and if unexpected risk events occur, rumors of explosions from certain exchanges or large DeFi platforms collapsing, etc., may also break the balance.

$ZEC has recently shown strong resilience against declines, reaching a high of 470 today, with previous orders around 460-470 being knocked out by 6000U. The 480 area is the neckline, and there will be considerable resistance if it rebounds to here in the short term. Let's see if orders around 480-500 will be knocked out soon. This wave of rebound has not seen strong willingness from the bears to enter, and the funding fee has remained positive. The weekly line has now seen three consecutive bullish candles, and this rebound trend is nearing its end; patience is required to wait for the end of this weekly rebound. BCH has established some short positions at 630, and if it rebounds to explore 640, I will opportunistically increase my position. XMR will wait to break 500 before adding to the layout, while Bitcoin will wait to break the 95000 resistance level before considering adding shorts. The current market is in a sideways consolidation, and patience is needed to hold positions and quietly await the direction choice. It is expected that the market may break the deadlock in January, either rebounding upward to challenge 95000 or falling back to test the 80000 support.