TheCryptoDegen
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4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.
The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.
But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year cycle (regardless of which years are bull or bear). Current cycle average is $90k, clearly above past cycle's average of $34k, and is still going towards S2F $250k-$1m range (2 years to go) IMO. I still fundamentally believe that.
$BTC
The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.
But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year cycle (regardless of which years are bull or bear). Current cycle average is $90k, clearly above past cycle's average of $34k, and is still going towards S2F $250k-$1m range (2 years to go) IMO. I still fundamentally believe that.
$BTC
Bitcoin is challenging capital from the largest assets in the world like real estate, bonds, currencies, precious metals, and stocks.
The 20,000 shitcoins are challenging capital from one another because they all do the same thing, not much at all.
I fast realised that no one was using anything other than Bitcoin for payments.
Also, most of the creators of these shitcoins had shady history.
The best thing I ever did was piss off all the shitcoins.
It's not too late. Everyone has been there. Back the only asset worth backing. Bitcoin.
The 20,000 shitcoins are challenging capital from one another because they all do the same thing, not much at all.
I fast realised that no one was using anything other than Bitcoin for payments.
Also, most of the creators of these shitcoins had shady history.
The best thing I ever did was piss off all the shitcoins.
It's not too late. Everyone has been there. Back the only asset worth backing. Bitcoin.
$XAU
黃金在歷史上是最被高估的。
一旦突破，資金將像歷史上每一次一樣轉向比特幣和加密貨幣。
耐心
黃金在歷史上是最被高估的。
一旦突破，資金將像歷史上每一次一樣轉向比特幣和加密貨幣。
耐心
"比特幣沒有使用案例，"
比特幣每個幣：
$0
$10
$100
$10,000
$100,000 < 我們在這裏，仇恨者
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
^^^^
您可以以$0.30的費用將這麼多錢發送到世界任何地方。
沒有人可以阻止它
17年來沒有被阻止
中心化系統早期有機會阻止它
首先，他們嘲笑我們
然後他們忽視我們
然後他們與我們作鬥爭
然後我們贏了
比特幣每個幣：
$0
$10
$100
$10,000
$100,000 < 我們在這裏，仇恨者
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
^^^^
您可以以$0.30的費用將這麼多錢發送到世界任何地方。
沒有人可以阻止它
17年來沒有被阻止
中心化系統早期有機會阻止它
首先，他們嘲笑我們
然後他們忽視我們
然後他們與我們作鬥爭
然後我們贏了
In 2028, the bitcoin block reward drops from 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes, to 1.56 BTC.
From 2028 to 2032, bitcoin will mark the last 4 years where the bitcoin block is above a whole coin.
In 2032, it drops to 0.78 BTC.
If you are alive and watching, this is quite the experience.
One day, your grandchildren will ask questions about the last whole bitcoin reward Epoch.
History in the making.
#BTC
From 2028 to 2032, bitcoin will mark the last 4 years where the bitcoin block is above a whole coin.
In 2032, it drops to 0.78 BTC.
If you are alive and watching, this is quite the experience.
One day, your grandchildren will ask questions about the last whole bitcoin reward Epoch.
History in the making.
#BTC
🚨 WARNING SIGNAL 🚨
ALTCOINS MAY BE HEADING INTO A SERIOUS DOWNTURN.
THE ALTS/BTC RATIO IS SHOWING THE SAME RED FLAG WE SAW BEFORE THE 2017 AND 2021 COLLAPSES — AND BOTH ENDED WITH HEAVY LOSSES.
THE CYCLE PATTERN IS STARTING TO RHYME AGAIN.
STAY ALERT. RISK IS RISING. ⚠️📉
ALTCOINS MAY BE HEADING INTO A SERIOUS DOWNTURN.
THE ALTS/BTC RATIO IS SHOWING THE SAME RED FLAG WE SAW BEFORE THE 2017 AND 2021 COLLAPSES — AND BOTH ENDED WITH HEAVY LOSSES.
THE CYCLE PATTERN IS STARTING TO RHYME AGAIN.
STAY ALERT. RISK IS RISING. ⚠️📉
當你購買100美元的比特幣時，你可能感覺自己沒有得到多少。0.0011 BTC（110,000聰）能做什麼？這甚至還不夠一整枚幣。
我總是感覺時間在流逝，我需要儘快獲取更多，因而產生了FOMO。這導致了錯誤——你會買超過自己能負擔的數量，之後可能必須出售一些。
不要把自己置於這種境地。
提醒自己，如果你現在在積累比特幣，你已經領先於95%的世界。大多數人對這是什麼或它的去向毫無頭緒。你的110,000聰極有可能比普通人能接觸到的數量還要多。
如果你已經在持續購買，你的做法比大多數人要好。當比特幣還只有幾分錢時，人們可能認爲自己錯過了機會，儘管他們手中有成千上萬的幣。
我瞭解到我總是會感覺自己太晚了，擁有的還不夠，或者應該以某種方式去賭博來獲取更多，而不是通過努力工作。
如果你有這樣的感覺：
暫停。
深呼吸。
我們還處於早期階段。
比特幣的總量永遠只有2100萬枚。
如果你繼續進行美元成本平均法，你就會很好。要以年和十年的尺度來思考，而不是以天和周。
如果你每週繼續購買100美元的比特幣，20年後你將擁有0.05-0.1 BTC（價值超過500K美元）。如果你想要更多，找辦法增加你的每日購買，但不要用你所擁有的去賭博。
專注於一致性而非強度。
#BTC
我總是感覺時間在流逝，我需要儘快獲取更多，因而產生了FOMO。這導致了錯誤——你會買超過自己能負擔的數量，之後可能必須出售一些。
不要把自己置於這種境地。
提醒自己，如果你現在在積累比特幣，你已經領先於95%的世界。大多數人對這是什麼或它的去向毫無頭緒。你的110,000聰極有可能比普通人能接觸到的數量還要多。
如果你已經在持續購買，你的做法比大多數人要好。當比特幣還只有幾分錢時，人們可能認爲自己錯過了機會，儘管他們手中有成千上萬的幣。
我瞭解到我總是會感覺自己太晚了，擁有的還不夠，或者應該以某種方式去賭博來獲取更多，而不是通過努力工作。
如果你有這樣的感覺：
暫停。
深呼吸。
我們還處於早期階段。
比特幣的總量永遠只有2100萬枚。
如果你繼續進行美元成本平均法，你就會很好。要以年和十年的尺度來思考，而不是以天和周。
如果你每週繼續購買100美元的比特幣，20年後你將擁有0.05-0.1 BTC（價值超過500K美元）。如果你想要更多，找辦法增加你的每日購買，但不要用你所擁有的去賭博。
專注於一致性而非強度。
#BTC
THE US DOLLAR INDEX DXY IS ABOUT TO CRASH REALLY HARD 🚨
And here’s why:
For the first time this century, the Fed is planning to stop the Japanese yen from going down.
This is what we call “yen intervention.”
To do this, the Fed first needs to create new dollars and then use them to buy yen.
This causes the yen to strengthen and the USD to dump.
And the US government benefits from a weaker USD.
• Future debt gets inflated away
• Exports get a boost due to a cheaper dollar
• The deficit goes down
And for those holding assets, this intervention can result in a huge rally.
Back in July 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in the yen.
Markets were volatile for a few weeks before forming a bottom.
After that, BTC and alts rallied to new highs.
This time, the entity is the Fed itself.
Markets could stay volatile for some time, but as the dollar gets devalued, Bitcoin and alts could go parabolic.
And here’s why:
For the first time this century, the Fed is planning to stop the Japanese yen from going down.
This is what we call “yen intervention.”
To do this, the Fed first needs to create new dollars and then use them to buy yen.
This causes the yen to strengthen and the USD to dump.
And the US government benefits from a weaker USD.
• Future debt gets inflated away
• Exports get a boost due to a cheaper dollar
• The deficit goes down
And for those holding assets, this intervention can result in a huge rally.
Back in July 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in the yen.
Markets were volatile for a few weeks before forming a bottom.
After that, BTC and alts rallied to new highs.
This time, the entity is the Fed itself.
Markets could stay volatile for some time, but as the dollar gets devalued, Bitcoin and alts could go parabolic.
中本聰現在已經持有比特幣17年。
以下是他持有的比特幣在過去的表現：
2009年爲$0
2010年爲$4.5K
2011年爲$317K
2012年爲$5.5M
2013年爲$14.5M
2014年爲$827M
今天，他的財富爲$100 BILLION，是全球前15位最富有的人之一。
不放棄的力量！
以下是他持有的比特幣在過去的表現：
2009年爲$0
2010年爲$4.5K
2011年爲$317K
2012年爲$5.5M
2013年爲$14.5M
2014年爲$827M
今天，他的財富爲$100 BILLION，是全球前15位最富有的人之一。
不放棄的力量！
🤑🤑完全如預測的恭喜 🔥🤑🤑✅️✅️
#BTC走勢分析
#BTC走勢分析
正如預期🔥🔥🤑🤑🤑✅️✅️
$BTC
$BTC
非常重要 🔥
$BTC false 突破 .
在假突破期間，btc在15分鐘時間框架內形成了89,250-89,600之間的公平價值缺口。
公平價值缺口必須被填補，然而它可能會失去動能並降至89,600的水平
在作爲支撐的流動性區域內
#Bitcoin❗
$BTC false 突破 .
在假突破期間，btc在15分鐘時間框架內形成了89,250-89,600之間的公平價值缺口。
公平價值缺口必須被填補，然而它可能會失去動能並降至89,600的水平
在作爲支撐的流動性區域內
#Bitcoin❗
iPhone 4S - 47.9 BTC
iPhone 5 - 15.9 BTC
iPhone 6 - 0.5 BTC
iPhone 7 - 1 BTC
iPhone 10 - 0.13 BTC
iPhone 11 - 0.06 BTC
iPhone 12 -0.06 BTC
iPhone 13 -0.018 BTC
iPhone 14 - 0.04 BTC
iPhone 15 - 0.03 BTC
iPhone 16 - 0.013 BTC
iPhone 17 - 0.007 BTC
iPhone 5 - 15.9 BTC
iPhone 6 - 0.5 BTC
iPhone 7 - 1 BTC
iPhone 10 - 0.13 BTC
iPhone 11 - 0.06 BTC
iPhone 12 -0.06 BTC
iPhone 13 -0.018 BTC
iPhone 14 - 0.04 BTC
iPhone 15 - 0.03 BTC
iPhone 16 - 0.013 BTC
iPhone 17 - 0.007 BTC
🇺🇸 美聯儲本週購買了152.2億美元的國庫券。
🇨🇳 中國本週注入了1.18萬億元流動性。
🇺🇸 財政部本週注入了160億美元的流動性。
🇺🇸 美國取消了所有與格林蘭相關的關稅。
🇺🇸 特朗普總統再次暗示關稅分紅。
黃金、白銀和羅素2000指數本週創下新高。
然而，比特幣和其他數字貨幣在2026年經歷了最糟糕的一週。
#WeeklyMarketHighlights
🇨🇳 中國本週注入了1.18萬億元流動性。
🇺🇸 財政部本週注入了160億美元的流動性。
🇺🇸 美國取消了所有與格林蘭相關的關稅。
🇺🇸 特朗普總統再次暗示關稅分紅。
黃金、白銀和羅素2000指數本週創下新高。
然而，比特幣和其他數字貨幣在2026年經歷了最糟糕的一週。
#WeeklyMarketHighlights
非常重要 🔥
$BTC false 突破 .
在假突破期間，btc在15分鐘時間框架內形成了89,250-89,600之間的公平價值缺口。
公平價值缺口必須被填補，然而它可能會失去動能並降至89,600的水平
在作爲支撐的流動性區域內
#Bitcoin❗
$BTC false 突破 .
在假突破期間，btc在15分鐘時間框架內形成了89,250-89,600之間的公平價值缺口。
公平價值缺口必須被填補，然而它可能會失去動能並降至89,600的水平
在作爲支撐的流動性區域內
#Bitcoin❗
週末牛市陷阱還是怎麼回事？
$BTC 收復$91k...
$BTC 收復$91k...
$BTC 回到90k 😅😅 我們準備好迎接$100k了嗎？
來自未來的突發新聞
比特幣剛剛創下$156,000的新歷史高點
以太坊剛剛突破$12,500
BNB交易價格爲$2,000
SOL穩定在$550
LINK努力突破$150
美國以$10B購買了比特幣用於其國庫
比特幣剛剛創下$156,000的新歷史高點
以太坊剛剛突破$12,500
BNB交易價格爲$2,000
SOL穩定在$550
LINK努力突破$150
美國以$10B購買了比特幣用於其國庫
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