Ram Rawat
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#pipe It sounds like you're following the high-stakes drama surrounding Jerome Powell and the Fed’s first meeting of 2026. You’ve hit on some very real tensions: the friction between "hardcore" economic data and the intense political pressure currently being felt in D.C.
Here is a quick breakdown of where things actually stand as we head into the thick of 2026:
1. The "Pause" is the New Signal
You're right that the dream of aggressive rate cuts has cooled. After three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025 (bringing the rate to 3.50%–3.75%), the Fed is widely expected to hold steady at this week's January 28 meeting.
The Reality: Markets have moved from expecting a March cut to pricing in less than a 20% chance.
The "Why": Growth is surprisingly resilient, and while inflation has cooled to around 2.7%, it's not yet at that "magic" 2% target.
Here is a quick breakdown of where things actually stand as we head into the thick of 2026:
1. The "Pause" is the New Signal
You're right that the dream of aggressive rate cuts has cooled. After three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025 (bringing the rate to 3.50%–3.75%), the Fed is widely expected to hold steady at this week's January 28 meeting.
The Reality: Markets have moved from expecting a March cut to pricing in less than a 20% chance.
The "Why": Growth is surprisingly resilient, and while inflation has cooled to around 2.7%, it's not yet at that "magic" 2% target.
It definitely feels like a "sleeping giant" moment for $AXS. You’re spot on about its history—Axie wasn't just a game; it was a cultural phenomenon that essentially pioneered the GameFi sector.
Looking at where we are now in January 2026, your "facts over noise" approach holds some serious weight. The data shows a significant shift in the ecosystem’s fundamentals that most people are overlooking while they chase newer, shinier objects.
The 2026 Reality Check
While the $165 ATH feels like a lifetime ago, the "accumulation" phase you mentioned is showing up in the numbers.
Supply Absorption: You’re remarkably close on the numbers. Recent data suggests that whales (holding 100k to 100M AXS) have aggressively accumulated over 100 million tokens in just the first few weeks of 2026.
Tokenomics Overhaul: The reason big players are moving is the shift to bAXS (Bonded AXS) and the total halt of SLP emissions in certain modes. This is a direct attack on the "farm-and-dump" meta that crashed the economy years ago.
Price Action: After a long hibernation, AXS recently surged over 100% in a single week, breaking past the $2.50–$2.90 resistance levels. While it’s currently seeing a healthy pullback (trading around $2.25 – $2.60), the volume is at levels we haven't seen since 2024.
Why the "Smart Money" is Watching
The transition from a pure "Click-to-Earn" model to a high-fidelity ecosystem is what's driving this quiet control:
Looking at where we are now in January 2026, your "facts over noise" approach holds some serious weight. The data shows a significant shift in the ecosystem’s fundamentals that most people are overlooking while they chase newer, shinier objects.
The 2026 Reality Check
While the $165 ATH feels like a lifetime ago, the "accumulation" phase you mentioned is showing up in the numbers.
Supply Absorption: You’re remarkably close on the numbers. Recent data suggests that whales (holding 100k to 100M AXS) have aggressively accumulated over 100 million tokens in just the first few weeks of 2026.
Tokenomics Overhaul: The reason big players are moving is the shift to bAXS (Bonded AXS) and the total halt of SLP emissions in certain modes. This is a direct attack on the "farm-and-dump" meta that crashed the economy years ago.
Price Action: After a long hibernation, AXS recently surged over 100% in a single week, breaking past the $2.50–$2.90 resistance levels. While it’s currently seeing a healthy pullback (trading around $2.25 – $2.60), the volume is at levels we haven't seen since 2024.
Why the "Smart Money" is Watching
The transition from a pure "Click-to-Earn" model to a high-fidelity ecosystem is what's driving this quiet control:
has been happening
1) Russia has been selling gold from the National Wealth Fund (NWF)
Independent reports, including data cited from Russia’s own Ministry of Finance, show that the gold held specifically in the National Wealth Fund dropped sharply — from about 554.9 tonnes in mid-2022 to around 160 tonnes by early 2025. That’s roughly a 71% fall in that part of the reserve. �
United24 Media
👉 This sell-off is interpreted as the government converting gold into cash or foreign currency to help cover budget shortfalls, especially as oil and gas revenue — once Russia’s fiscal backbone — falls sharply. �
The Moscow Times
2) The Kremlin is increasing sales of liquid assets
Far from slowing down, the Russian Finance Ministry appears poised to continue selling gold and foreign currency from the NWF at a brisk pace in 2026 to fund the budget, because energy revenues have been weaker than expected. �
The Moscow Times
3) This is happening alongside broader economic stress
Weak oil prices, sanctions, and lower foreign income are pressuring the budget and the ruble, which has lost some central bank support as reserve sales are cut back. �
Reuters
⚠️ But there are important nuances
1) Russia has been selling gold from the National Wealth Fund (NWF)
Independent reports, including data cited from Russia’s own Ministry of Finance, show that the gold held specifically in the National Wealth Fund dropped sharply — from about 554.9 tonnes in mid-2022 to around 160 tonnes by early 2025. That’s roughly a 71% fall in that part of the reserve. �
United24 Media
👉 This sell-off is interpreted as the government converting gold into cash or foreign currency to help cover budget shortfalls, especially as oil and gas revenue — once Russia’s fiscal backbone — falls sharply. �
The Moscow Times
2) The Kremlin is increasing sales of liquid assets
Far from slowing down, the Russian Finance Ministry appears poised to continue selling gold and foreign currency from the NWF at a brisk pace in 2026 to fund the budget, because energy revenues have been weaker than expected. �
The Moscow Times
3) This is happening alongside broader economic stress
Weak oil prices, sanctions, and lower foreign income are pressuring the budget and the ruble, which has lost some central bank support as reserve sales are cut back. �
Reuters
⚠️ But there are important nuances
CyrilXBT posted on X. The discussion suggests that as silver and gold markets begin to stabilize, there may be a shift in investment towards Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies. This perspective highlights a potential trend where profits from precious metals could be redirected into the digital currency market, indicating a possible increase in interest and investment in cryptocurrencies.
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