La Mariposa

$BTC /USDT Long Set-up

— Support retest, test of the lower consolidation zone, potential divergence on the hourly timeframes, oversold conditions, and an imbalance in open positions.

— Entry: $82958— market buy order

— Stop: $81000

— Target: $97350

Risk per trade: 1% of total equity
Position size: 40% of total equity

RR: 1:6.6

Fear and panic persist, negative sentiment on social media is at extreme levels, and $BTC ETF outflows are massive — $1.9 billion withdrawn over the past week. Gold and other metals have entered a correction phase, and crypto is following them.

I still believe these are good conditions for a long-term long position. This is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, but the market imbalance has become too obvious — markets tend to move toward equilibrium.

I am not opening new positions for now. It is necessary to wait for a slowdown and stabilization of panic selling. I am also not planning to open shorts — shorting into such a disbalance is extremely dangerous.

On a higher timeframe, the market is still trading within a range and remains heavily oversold.

Investment Idea SHIB

Higher-timeframe convergences, retest of the 0.0068–0.0075 support zone, strong oversold conditions based on indicators.
Market entry: Buy at $0.0073
Target 1: $0.011 — +50%
Target 2: $0.015 — +100%
Position size: 3-5% of the deposit

Fundamental drivers for price growth and adoption
🔹 Shibarium privacy (FHE) — could become a major technological milestone.
🔹 Shib Alpha Layer — improves usability and network throughput.
🔹 AI initiatives — provide a long-term narrative if they materialize into real products.
🔹 Gaming partnerships — expand SHIB use cases beyond pure speculation.
🔹 Token burns — the most direct supply-side driver.
🔹 A broad crypto bull run — increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high-beta assets like $SHIB .

We are seeing a very strong imbalance in potential liquidations — long positions are almost absent. I continue to hold a long position and plan to add to spot.

I need to wait for proper long signals, which are not fully formed yet — specifically, higher-timeframe convergences.

I assume that what remains in the market right now is mainly short pressure: selling and ETF outflows have been absorbed. Fundamentals are getting stronger and stronger, top projects are still intact, and when demand returns — which, for me, is a matter of time — there will be no supply, only short sellers. And the closing of their positions means buying.
$BTC $XRP

$SHIB/USDT Long Set-up

— Support retest, triple confluence on the higher timeframe, strong oversold conditions

— Entry: $0.00758 — market buy order

— Stop: $0.0073

— Target: $0.00904

Risk per trade: 1% of total equity

Position size: 25% of total equity

RR: 1:5.2

$CAKE /USDT Long Set-up

— Entry: $1.934 (Market buy)
— Stop: $1.874
— Target: $2.155

Risk per trade: 1% of total account
Position size: 30% of total account
RR: 1 : 3.45

We’re seeing a serious imbalance in the market.

Price has broken a bearish formation that was obvious to everyone, but has stalled for now. This may simply be because there are no sellers left — and no remaining longs to liquidate. A full cleanup has already taken place. Hourly timeframes are showing convergences, which increases the probability that this move could turn into a short trap. In that scenario, price may rotate back into the range with a potential retest of the $100K level.

$BTC At the moment, the buyer looks weak — but I don’t think this is weakness. It’s absence. If everyone is positioned short, then there are no sellers left either. Markets always seek balance.

I’m positioned on the long side.

$BTC flag formation, which most often resolves with a continuation of the local trend — in our case, a test of the 78k area. As long as we stay above the 86–87k zone, there is still a chance for a move higher. I’m still in longs with a small position size, as the buyer currently looks weak. We’ll see.

NYSE + Crypto: what’s really happening

There’s a lot of noise around the headline:

“NYSE launches 24/7 stock trading via crypto and blockchain”

Let’s break it down by facts 👇

1️⃣ This is NOT futures and NOT crypto trading

We’re talking about tokenized securities —

📌 stocks and ETFs issued as tokens, backed by real shares

📌 a spot-equivalent of ownership, not a derivative

📌 dividends and shareholder rights are preserved

In other words:

❌ not a price bet

✅ a digital form of ownership

2️⃣ Who is behind it

The project is being developed by the New York Stock Exchange

through its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

This will be a separate digital platform, not the traditional NYSE market.

3️⃣ Why blockchain and crypto are involved

The platform is expected to include:

— on-chain settlement

— stablecoin-based payments

— 24/7 trading

— fractional shares

👉 This means TradFi is moving onto crypto rails, even without directly buying $BTC

4️⃣ What this means for Crypto (the key part)

🔥 Legitimization of on-chain markets

🔥 Infrastructure-driven demand for stablecoins

🔥 Liquidity flowing through on-chain systems

🔥 Blurring the line between TradFi and DeFi

Crypto stops being “a separate market”

and becomes a financial layer.

5️⃣ Which blockchain will be used?

Nothing has been officially announced yet.

Most likely:

— a permissioned / hybrid blockchain

— EVM compatibility

— integration with public infrastructure

Ethereum matters here not as a DeFi casino,

but as a technology standard.

6️⃣ Timeline (realistic view)

⏳ 2026 — regulatory work and pilot programs

⏳ 2027 — limited institutional launch

This is not a fast release —

it’s a rebuild of market infrastructure.

Bottom line:

❌ not hype and not a rumor

❌ not “crypto replacing stocks”

✅ TradFi officially moving on-chain

Slow process — but irreversible.

$BCH saw an interesting bounce. The 592 level coincides with the daily MA50 and a key horizontal level. There are bullish convergences on higher intraday timeframes, making BCH interesting for a potential long.

Technically, $BTC has no clear signals in favor of either a long or a short.

Locally, there is a bearish continuation pattern — a Rising Wedge, with a downside target around 78–80k.

For the bullish scenario to continue, price needs to break and hold above 95,500. Global tension is increasing. On one hand, there is growing interest from large capital as well as from countries experiencing chaos, where people are trying to preserve their wealth by any means. On the other hand, Bitcoin remains a risk asset and is typically among the first to be sold in the event of global escalation.

Challenging times.

$UNI /USDT Long Set-up

— Support level test, prolonged accumulation, higher-timeframe convergence

— Entry: $5.37 market buy
— Stop-loss: $5.10 — 5% price movement from entry to stop (NOT 5% account loss)
— Target: $7.20

— Risk per trade: 1% of total account equity

— Position size: 20% of total account balance, any leverage allowed, leverage is not used

— Risk/Reward: 1:6.8

Ripple / $XRP — start of the year 👇

Facts:

• rising inflows into XRP ETFs amid pullbacks in BTC and ETH → capital rotation

• growing institutional interest: Grayscale holds XRP in its products

• regulatory progress in the U.S. — the market is waiting for structure, not bans

• MiCA in the EU: preliminary EMI approval in Luxembourg → access to the entire EU market

• clear move toward a banking model and deep fintech integration

• partnership with Amazon (AWS) — scaling XRPL infrastructure

• post-quantum security (CRYSTALS-Dilithium)

Price remains tied to the broader market and does not yet reflect the fundamentals.

Ripple Labs roadmap 👇

2025–2026 — payments, privacy, liquidity, tokenization

→ banking-level infrastructure

2027–2028 — inter-ledger, identity, compliance, DeFi for institutions

→ TradFi + blockchain

2029–2030 — CBDCs, autonomous liquidity, smart contracts, hybrid custody

→ governments and central banks level

$BTC technical picture hasn’t changed much.

A bearish formation is still in place, threatening a move toward the $78–80K area. We broke down and are now stalling — if price stays here for a day or two, the probability of a continuation of the downtrend increases. At the same time, the broader, global picture looks different, and for now I’m still oriented toward trend continuation.

Bulls shouldn’t hesitate — they need to keep pushing price toward $106K, while long positions should be protected with defensive stop orders. There is a strong skew toward potential long liquidations, with a 16:2 ratio — an extreme imbalance.

$BCH /USDT Long

— Pullback to the resistance level, strong retest and consolidation above the daily MA50/MA200, multiple attempts to break the resistance

— Entry: $612 (market buy)

— Stop-loss: $585 — 4.5% price move from entry to stop (this is NOT the loss percentage)

— Target: $700

— Risk per trade: 1% of total account equity (this is the actual potential loss)

— Position size: 22% of total account equity, 10x leverage

— Risk/Reward: 1:3

If $BTC holds above 85k, there is a high probability that the triangle pattern will play out, with a minimum target around 160k. At current levels, this represents an excellent entry point.

$BTC has strong support in the 88–90k zone, and prolonged accumulation continues. There is currently near balance in potential long/short liquidations, which reflects uncertainty. Despite global instability, rising geopolitical risks, and pressure from all sides, price has not broken down to lower levels — at least for now.

At the same time, a clearly bearish formation is still in play.

Bitcoin balances on exchanges are at minimum levels, Ethereum staking inflows continue to increase, and large wallets keep accumulating. Funds and banks are aggressively entering crypto, and logically it seems to be only a matter of time before liquidity starts flowing from traditional markets into digital assets.

When demand arrives, the question will be: where will the supply come from? The nearest major resistance level is around 106k. I continue to favor a long bias. Double bottom or triangle — we’ll see soon.

$XRP I’m continuing to hold my XRP long. It looks strong overall. The 2.50–2.55 level has not been tested yet, and $3 remains a major key level. XRP should move if the broader market moves — or even if the market pauses. Ripple has strong fundamentals and long-term drivers, so I may consider adding to the position.

$BTC is still consolidating within a bearish formation. However, the weekly close above 90,500 is a positive sign, and this level needs to be held to confirm a potential trend shift and a move toward testing the 105k zone. As long as price remains above 88k, I maintain a bullish (long) bias.

Altcoin convergences (long signals) are now officially considered played out. At this point, everything depends on whether BTC can break through the seller zone around 94,500, or alternatively, invite the opening of short positions and consolidate at current levels to build fuel for the next leg higher.

With global markets only returning to work after the New Year holidays, liquidity remains low.

$UNI /USDT Long Set-up

— Interesting accumulation, Head and Shoulders formation, locally ascending trend, and multiple resistance tests. A popular project on the Ethereum platform that may grow fundamentally if Bitcoin manages to break the bearish structure around 94k.

— Entry: $6.145 — market buy

— Stop: $5.682 — 7.2% (this is the price movement from entry to stop, not the percentage loss)

— Target: $7.33

— Risk per trade: 0.25% of total deposit (this is the actual loss risk)

— Position size: 3% of total deposit, any leverage available, leverage is not used

— RR: 1:2.75