FidaHocaine

fell below the price level where 75% of holders bought in, signaling most investors are now at a loss.This creates rising distribution pressure, as more holders may sell to cut losses.Market risk is higher and downside dominant unless $BTC recovers above this key supply level.#bearishmomentum

Futures Dominance:When futures trading volume exceeds spot volume by 80× or more, the market stops discovering the true price.Engineered Moves:Price is no longer organic—it’s constructed using leverage, volatility injection, and liquidation cycles.Volatility Traps:Repeated liquidations force stop-losses, creating artificial spikes and dips that retail traders often fall victim to.Market Illusion:These engineered moves look like real market action, but they are designed to manipulate price and harvest retail capital.Key Advice:Avoid participating in these extreme futures-driven moves. Focus on spot markets or real volume-backed trends to trade safely.Takeaway:If futures volume is overwhelmingly higher than spot, question the price—it may be a trap, not genuine market demand.

Using $RIVER as an example. This is not an isolated case. Variations of this funding-rate-driven setup have appeared across many tokens over the past two years.
Most traders misunderstand funding rates.Funding does not predict direction. It reflects position imbalance — and that imbalance can be intentionally created.Step one is simple: Keep price suppressed while pushing funding deeply negative. This concentrates short positions and builds the belief that “negative funding = inevitable bounce”.At this stage, many traders go long — not because of demand, but because they expecta rebound + funding payments This expectation is the trap.When funding is extremely negative, price doesn’t have to reverse. It only needs a controlled push upward to trigger liquidations,stop losses, and forced short covering.This is why sharp rallies often begin while funding is still negative. The move is not organic demand — it’s leverage being unwound.After shorts are flushed, funding quickly normalizes. Many interpret this as “the market is healthy again”. In reality, it simply means the trap has been reset.This process can repeat multiple times:• manufacture extreme funding attract consensus positioning force liquidation resetIt’s price engineering, not price discovery.Funding rates don’t tell you where price is going. They tell you where traders are crowded — and where liquidation risk is highest. In engineered markets,the safest trade is no trade.

#FundingRates

Cash-and-carry (basis) trade profitability is declining:1-month annualized bitcoin basis yields dropped from ~17% → ~5%With 1-year U.S. Treasuries yielding ~3.5%, the spread is no longer attractive for institutions.CME bitcoin futures open interest fell below $10B (from >$21B), now trailing Binance (~$11B) as perpetual futures dominate trading.
Institutions are shifting away from simple arbitrage:
Moving capital to options, hedging, and altcoins (ETH, XRP, SOL)
Reflects a more mature crypto derivatives market, not an exit from crypto.

$BTC #Arbitrage

Over 17,000 BTC just moved to exchanges — a level that historically signals rising sell-side pressure. Large inflows often precede increased volatility as traders position for distribution.If follow-through selling emerges, the current BTC pullback could deepen further.Watch exchange net flows, funding rates, and spot demand closely.
#bitcoin