Arthur Hayes: IBIT Dealer Hedging Likely Drove Bitcoin’s Recent Price Drop
Bitcoin’s recent pullback may have had less to do with macro fear or weak fundamentals—and more to do with institutional mechanics happening behind the scenes, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
In a post on X, Hayes argued that the latest Bitcoin selloff was likely driven by dealer hedging activity tied to structured products referencing BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), rather than broad market sentiment.
The Role of IBIT-Linked Structured Products
Structured products linked to spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT have become increasingly popular among institutional and high-net-worth investors. These products are typically issued by banks and often include embedded options, leverage, or yield-enhancement features.
Because of their structure, dealers issuing these products must actively hedge their exposure—either in the spot Bitcoin market or through derivatives such as futures and options. When Bitcoin prices move sharply, these hedging requirements can trigger mechanical buying or selling, independent of fundamentals.
“BTC dump probably due to dealer hedging off the back of $IBIT structured products,” Hayes wrote, suggesting that the recent selling pressure was largely structural.
Mechanical Selling and Feedback Loops
Hayes explained that these hedging flows can create short-term feedback loops, especially during periods of heightened volatility. As prices fall, dealers may be forced to sell more Bitcoin to maintain delta-neutral positions, amplifying downward moves even when demand remains strong.
This helps explain why Bitcoin has faced renewed selling pressure despite steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in recent months.
Mapping the Hidden Triggers
To better understand these dynamics, Hayes said he is now working to compile a comprehensive list of all bank-issued structured notes tied to Bitcoin and crypto-related ETFs.
His goal is to identify key trigger points such as:
Knock-in and knock-out levels
Delta thresholds
Rebalancing or reset events
Any of these could cause sudden and aggressive price swings, both to the downside and upside.
A Shift From Previous Crypto Cycles
According to Hayes, this represents a major shift from earlier crypto market cycles. In the past, Bitcoin price action was driven mainly by:
Retail speculation
Offshore leverage
Macro liquidity conditions
Today, institutional positioning, options markets, and structured products play a much larger role in shaping short-term price behavior.
“As the game changes, you must as well,” Hayes noted, emphasizing that traders can no longer ignore traditional finance mechanics when analyzing Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Evolving Market Structure
Hayes’ remarks highlight how Bitcoin’s integration into traditional financial products is reshaping market dynamics. While this evolution brings deeper liquidity and broader adoption, it also introduces new sources of volatility that are less intuitive for retail traders.
As banks continue expanding their issuance of crypto-linked structured notes, understanding dealer hedging, derivatives exposure, and institutional positioning may become essential for navigating Bitcoin’s next phase.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has made a quiet but meaningful move that signals where he believes crypto should be heading next. By donating to Shielded Labs, a research team developing a major upgrade for Zcash, Buterin is reinforcing a clear message: privacy is not optional — it is core infrastructure.
The donation supports the development of Crosslink, a proposed protocol upgrade aimed at improving transaction finality and security on Zcash. While the financial contribution itself is notable, its real significance lies in what it represents — a long-term bet on privacy, resilience, and worst-case-scenario thinking over short-term hype or growth metrics.
What Crosslink Brings to Zcash
At its core, Crosslink introduces an additional confirmation layer on top of Zcash’s existing proof-of-work consensus. This second layer is designed to provide faster settlement and stronger finality, reducing the likelihood of chain reorganizations and double-spend attacks.
This matters especially for:
Exchanges, which can credit deposits faster with higher confidence
Cross-chain bridges, which rely on strong finality guarantees
Developers, who benefit from clearer security assumptions when building applications
Importantly, Crosslink enhances usability without weakening Zcash’s privacy model. Shielded transactions remain fully intact, ensuring that amounts and addresses stay encrypted while the network becomes more robust.
Why Shielded Labs Aligns With Buterin’s Vision
Shielded Labs is not chasing user growth, flashy applications, or short-term narratives. Its sole focus is deep protocol-level improvements — strengthening cryptographic guarantees, improving security, and advancing shielded transaction technology.
This approach mirrors Buterin’s recent thinking. He has repeatedly emphasized that blockchains should be designed for hostile environments, not ideal ones. Systems must continue to protect users under censorship, attacks, regulatory pressure, or adversarial conditions.
From that perspective, Shielded Labs represents exactly the kind of work that matters long-term: quiet, technical, and foundational.
Privacy Is Becoming Non-Negotiable
Buterin has grown increasingly vocal about the dangers of fully transparent financial systems without meaningful privacy protections. According to him, excessive transparency can lead to mass surveillance, coercion, and systemic instability over time.
Zcash stands out in this debate because privacy is built directly into the protocol, not bolted on later. Shielded transactions are a native feature, not an optional add-on. By supporting Shielded Labs, Buterin is effectively endorsing this design philosophy — that encrypted money is essential for true decentralization.
Market Reaction and Zcash Outlook
Crypto analyst Mert has echoed similar views, arguing that crypto cannot fulfill its promise without strong financial privacy. In his view, a system without encrypted money fundamentally misses the point of decentralization.
He believes recent market movements were only an early signal, suggesting that momentum is building for a serious Zcash revival. With protocol upgrades like Crosslink and growing global demand for privacy-preserving financial systems, Zcash may be positioning itself for a return to the top tier of cryptocurrencies.
Key Takeaways
Vitalik Buterin’s donation highlights a shift toward privacy-first crypto design
Crosslink improves Zcash’s security and transaction finality without compromising privacy
Shielded Labs focuses on long-term protocol resilience, not hype
Growing concerns around surveillance and censorship make privacy increasingly critical
Zcash could benefit as demand for built-in financial privacy accelerates
FAQs
What is the Crosslink upgrade for Zcash?
Crosslink adds an extra confirmation layer to speed up settlement and reduce double-spend risks.
How does Zcash ensure privacy?
Through shielded transactions that encrypt addresses and amounts at the protocol level.
Could Zcash rise in the market again?
With stronger infrastructure and increasing privacy demand, Zcash has the potential to regain momentum.
What Could Happen to Bitcoin If Strategy Starts Selling?
Bitcoin has taken a sharp hit over the past week, sliding nearly 20% to trade around $65,976, far below its recent highs. The pullback has erased billions in market value and once again highlighted a hard truth about crypto markets: large flows still move prices fast.
As volatility ripples through global markets, attention has shifted to one dominant player — Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. With such a massive share of supply concentrated in a single balance sheet, even the possibility of selling raises an uncomfortable question:
How much selling can Bitcoin really absorb?
Strategy’s Expanding Grip on Bitcoin Supply
Strategy currently holds 713,502 BTC, valued at roughly $54 billion — about 3.4% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply. In simple terms, the company controls one out of every 29 bitcoins in existence.
Its largest purchase came in January 2026, when Strategy acquired 22,305 BTC in a single transaction, financed through $2.1 billion in stock and preferred share sales. This move reinforced management’s long-term commitment under its ambitious 42/42 Plan, which targets $84 billion in capital raised by 2027 to further expand its Bitcoin position.
That level of concentration means Strategy isn’t just a participant in the market — it’s a structural force.
Recent Price Action Shows How Fragile Liquidity Can Be
Bitcoin’s latest drawdown offers a real-time stress test. During one of the sharpest single-day drops on record, BTC plunged from around $73,100 to nearly $62,400, a decline of almost 15%.
The shock didn’t stop there. Crypto-linked equities were hit hard:
Strategy shares fell from ~$120 to ~$102 after hours
The stock is now down more than 70% year over year
This episode made one thing clear: when selling accelerates, short-term demand struggles to keep up.
The Balance Sheet Pressure Is Real
The sell-off has dramatically reshaped Strategy’s financial picture.
Q4 operating loss: $17.4 billion
Net loss to shareholders: $12.6 billion
Average BTC cost basis: ~$76,052
Just months ago, Strategy was sitting on an unrealized gain of roughly $31 billion. Today, that has flipped into an unrealized loss exceeding $9.2 billion. While these losses are unrealized, they place Strategy’s exposure firmly under the microscope.
Scenario Analysis: What If Strategy Starts Selling?
1️⃣ Minor Selling — Still Market Moving
A sale of just 1% of Strategy’s holdings would release roughly 7,100 BTC into the market. Even this modest amount exceeds average daily net inflows on many major exchanges.
A 3% sale (~21,000 BTC) would effectively mirror the company’s record January purchase — but in reverse. Such flows could:
Increase volatility
Widen bid-ask spreads
Push prices toward recent support levels
Even “small” moves matter at this scale.
2️⃣ Mid-Range Sales — Liquidity Stress Test
A 5–10% sale would introduce 35,000 to 71,000 BTC into circulation — volumes comparable to those seen during Bitcoin’s recent 15% crash.
Under similar conditions, markets could face:
Cascading liquidations
Forced selling from leveraged traders
Rapid downside acceleration
In this scenario, discussions of Bitcoin revisiting $30,000 would no longer sound extreme. The key question becomes whether spot demand could absorb that shock without deeper losses.
A 20% sale would mean over 140,000 BTC hitting the market. A 50% reduction would unleash more than 350,000 BTC — volumes that would dwarf normal exchange activity.
The likely consequences:
Sudden price gaps lower
Vanishing buy-side liquidity
Extreme volatility across derivatives markets
Such a move would instantly reshape Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and severely test its ability to stabilize in the short term.
Why Forced Selling Still Looks Unlikely
Strategy’s leadership has emphasized that Bitcoin would need to fall to around $8,000 — and remain there for years — before debt servicing becomes a serious risk. That statement significantly reduces expectations of near-term forced liquidation.
Still, scale itself is risk. Even strategic rebalancing or gradual selling could send shockwaves across the market simply because no other entity holds Bitcoin in comparable size.
The Question the Market Can’t Ignore
Bitcoin was designed to be decentralized, yet today a single company controls a meaningful share of its supply. For now, Strategy remains firmly in accumulation mode. But markets don’t trade on certainty — they trade on risk awareness.
As volatility persists, one question continues to loom over every rally and every dip:
How much selling can Bitcoin absorb when one company holds this much power over supply?
🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed strong support for advancing legislation aimed at structuring the Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency markets.
In a recent statement, Bessent said:
"The digital asset revolution is here, and I am confident that with leadership from both sides of the aisle we can get this across the finish line."
The remarks highlight growing U.S. government momentum to provide clearer regulatory frameworks for digital assets, aiming to foster innovation while addressing risks in the rapidly evolving crypto space. Analysts view this as a significant step toward legitimizing cryptocurrencies and enhancing investor confidence.
💡 Key Takeaways:
Bipartisan support is critical for passing crypto market structure legislation.
Emphasis on balancing innovation with risk management.
Could pave the way for broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin and digital assets.
Suggested Main Image:
A conceptual image of a digital Bitcoin floating above the U.S. Capitol, symbolizing government regulation meeting the crypto market.
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Strategy (MSTR) Surges 26% as Bitcoin Rebounds: Relief Rally or Temporary Bounce?
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) staged a sharp after-hours comeback on Friday, jumping nearly 26% to $134.93, as bitcoin rebounded above the $70,000 mark following a brutal two-day selloff. The move clawed back a large chunk of Thursday’s losses, when the stock sank 17% after the company reported a massive quarterly loss tied to bitcoin’s price swings.
The rally highlights once again why Strategy is often described as “bitcoin with leverage.” When BTC moves, Strategy moves harder—both up and down.
Bitcoin Bounce Sparks Risk-On Mood
Bitcoin briefly slipped to just above $60,000 overnight Thursday, rattling crypto-linked equities and reigniting fears of deeper downside. By the U.S. cash close on Friday, however, BTC had regained momentum, pushing back to around $70,700, according to market data.
That snapback was enough to revive appetite for crypto-sensitive stocks, with Strategy leading the charge. Trading was volatile throughout the session, with shares swinging between $109.45 and $135.50, and more than 57 million shares changing hands.
Earnings Shock Still Looms Large
Despite Friday’s rebound, the backdrop remains fragile.
Strategy reported a Q4 net loss of $12.4 billion, or $42.93 per diluted share, driven largely by a $17.4 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings. The hit stems from accounting rules that force companies to mark digital assets to market, even if no coins are sold.
In other words, the loss was mostly on paper—but it still flows straight through earnings, amplifying volatility and investor anxiety.
Bitcoin Treasury Grows, So Does Risk
CEO Phong Le said Strategy raised $25.3 billion in 2025 to advance its bitcoin treasury strategy, bringing total holdings to an eye-catching 713,502 BTC. The company has now spent $54.26 billion accumulating bitcoin, at an average cost of roughly $76,052 per coin.
To support its aggressive financing structure, CFO Andrew Kang confirmed the firm established a $2.25 billion USD Reserve, designed to cover two to three years of preferred dividends and interest payments. By the end of 2025, Strategy held $2.3 billion in cash and equivalents.
That buffer offers breathing room—but it doesn’t eliminate risk if bitcoin weakens for an extended period.
Preferred Dividends Under the Microscope
One of the biggest pressure points remains Strategy’s preferred stock. Its STRC preferred shares were yielding 11.25% as of early February, an unusually high payout that becomes harder to justify if bitcoin prices fall and earnings stay under pressure.
The next STRC monthly dividend is scheduled for February 28, making it a key date for investors tracking the company’s revised dividend framework and funding strength.
Software Business Takes a Back Seat
While Strategy’s roots are in enterprise analytics software, that segment was largely overshadowed by crypto headlines. The company reported $123 million in Q4 revenue, with subscription services up 62% year-on-year, though product support revenue declined.
The contrast underscores how Strategy is now valued far more as a bitcoin proxy than as a traditional software firm.
Market Outlook: Bounce or Bull Trap?
Friday’s rally extended beyond Strategy, with other crypto-linked names—Coinbase, MARA Holdings, and Robinhood—also rebounding as bitcoin stabilized.
Still, traders remain cautious. The big question is whether bitcoin can hold above $70,000 into next week, or if the move proves to be a short-lived relief rally after forced selling.
For Strategy, the equation is simple but unforgiving:
Bitcoin up → leverage works in its favor
Bitcoin down → earnings volatility, financing stress, and dividend pressure return fast
As the weekend approaches, all eyes are on bitcoin’s next move—and on whether Strategy reveals any fresh updates on capital raising or its ever-growing BTC war chest.
When people criticize @Strategy (MicroStrategy), they often focus on short‑term price moves or headline risk. What they miss are three structural shifts happening in real time across capital, credit, and Bitcoin exposure. This is not hype. It’s about how the financial system is evolving. 🔹 1. Digital Capital ($BTC) > Physical Capital 📌 [IMAGE POINT 1: Bitcoin vs Gold vs Real Estate comparison visual] For centuries, capital meant physical assets: GoldLandBuildingsIndustrial infrastructure These assets share common constraints: Difficult to transportExpensive to secure and maintainSlow to liquidateBound by geography and regulation Bitcoin ($BTC) redefines capital for a digital world: Borderless and permissionless24/7 global liquidityEasily verifiable and transferableFixed supply (21 million) 📈 Over the past decade, Bitcoin has outperformed nearly every major form of physical capital, not because of speculation alone, but because it is better suited to an internet‑native economy. Key insight: In a digital age, capital naturally becomes digital. 🔹 2. Digital Credit ($STRC) > Conventional Credit 📌 [IMAGE POINT 2: Traditional banking vs Digital credit flow diagram] Traditional credit systems rely on: Banks and intermediariesManual approvals and opaque risk modelsHigh fees and long settlement timesGeographic and political constraints Digital credit systems like $STRC represent a shift toward: Rules enforced by code, not discretionTransparent and auditable credit logicFaster settlementGlobal accessibility In the Bitcoin ecosystem, credit is increasingly collateral‑based and mathematically enforced, reducing counterparty risk and systemic fragility. 📉 Legacy credit systems are under pressure from excessive debt, inflation, and declining trust. Key insight: The future of credit is digital, transparent, and programmable. 🔹 3. Amplified Bitcoin ($MSTR) > Wrapped Bitcoin 📌 [IMAGE POINT 3: MSTR leverage vs Spot BTC exposure chart] A common misconception: “$MSTR is just another way to hold Bitcoin.” ❌ This misses the structure. $MSTR (MicroStrategy) represents: A massive Bitcoin treasuryStrategic use of low‑cost debtEquity market leverageInstitutional‑grade access to Bitcoin exposure Wrapped Bitcoin products simply track price. $MSTR combines Bitcoin exposure with capital structure leverage, creating amplified upside during Bitcoin bull cycles — with correspondingly higher risk. 📈 Historically, $MSTR has delivered outsized returns relative to spot Bitcoin during periods of sustained BTC appreciation. Key insight: $MSTR is not wrapped Bitcoin. It is amplified Bitcoin exposure. 🧠 Final Takeaway Skeptics often analyze @Strategy using old financial frameworks. But this is not just about one company. It’s about the transformation of: Capital → DigitalCredit → ProgrammableBitcoin exposure → Strategically amplified 🚀 This is not speculation. This is financial evolution happening in real time.
Why Profit-Taking Separates Survivors from Casual Traders in Crypto
Crypto markets are built to test emotions. They move fast, punish hesitation, and reward discipline. Most traders don’t lose because they’re wrong about direction — they lose because they stay too long.
Every major market drawdown tells the same story: profits were available, exits were ignored, and greed quietly took control.
In crypto, risk isn’t entering a trade — risk is refusing to exit one.
The Hidden Danger of “Letting It Ride”
One of the most repeated phrases in bull markets is:
“I’ll sell later.”
Later rarely comes.
As price climbs, confidence grows. Targets stretch. Stops get removed. What started as a structured trade turns into a hope-based position.
The market doesn’t reverse slowly to warn you. It snaps. And when it does, liquidity disappears faster than emotions can react.
By the time panic hits, exits are crowded and spreads widen. That’s how strong winners turn into weak bags.
Why Unrealized Gains Create False Confidence
Unrealized profit feels real — but it isn’t.
It creates:
Overconfidence Risk blindness Emotional attachment to price
The moment you start thinking “this money is mine” before securing it, decision-making becomes compromised.
Professional traders treat unrealized gains as temporary permission, not ownership.
Profit-Taking Is a Position, Not an Exit
Many think taking profit means closing everything. That’s a mistake.
Smart profit-taking is scaling: Partial exits at key levels Reducing exposure into strength Letting runners exist without pressure This approach keeps you in the move without being hostage to it.
If the trend continues, you benefit.
If it reverses, you’re protected.
Markets Pay Those Who Reduce Risk Early
Crypto rewards:
Flexibility Liquidity
Emotional neutrality
Not conviction.
Traders who lock profits early gain:
Mental clarity
Capital for new setups The ability to re-enter without regret
Those who wait for “perfect tops” usually end up selling far from them.
When Profit-Taking Makes the Most Sense
High-probability moments to reduce exposure include:
Price approaching historical resistance
Vertical moves with declining volume
Extreme sentiment or one-sided positioning
Funding rates becoming stretched
Before major macro or regulatory events
These aren’t signals to panic — they’re signals to de-risk.
Re-Entry Is a Feature of the Market, Not a Mistake
Missing a move feels painful — until you realize how often markets offer second chances.
Trends don’t move in straight lines. They pause, retrace, consolidate, and fake out participants.
Clean re-entries appear:
After pullbacks On support retests During range expansions
After liquidity sweeps
Capital on the sidelines is not fear — it’s optional leverage.
Adaptation Beats Prediction
Markets don’t reward loyalty to bias.
They reward responsiveness.
Some traders only know how to be bullish. Others know how to manage risk.
When conditions change, adaptive traders:
Reduce sizeSwitch timeframeChange strategy Or step aside
Survival comes before performance.
Final Perspective
Profit-taking isn’t weakness.
It’s respect for volatility.
The goal in crypto isn’t to win every trade — it’s to stay solvent, liquid, and emotionally clear long enough to trade the next one.
Remember:
Capital preserved is opportunity preserved
Small wins compound faster than large losses recover
🌐 Altseason Update — How the Bitcoin Dump Impacts the Next Altseason
Right now, with Bitcoin experiencing a sharp dump, it feels like altseason has been delayed. But historically, moves like this often set up the next phase of the cycle rather than ending it.
🔴 Does a Bitcoin Dump Cancel Altseason?
No. Typically, when Bitcoin dumps:
Altcoins get hit harder than BTC
Liquidity temporarily flows back into Bitcoin or exits the market
Fear dominates short-term sentiment
This doesn’t end the cycle — it’s usually a transition phase.
📊 Current Market Structure
Bitcoin dominance remains elevated
Major alts (ETH, SOL, etc.) are testing key BTC pair supports
Low-cap and meme coins are taking the most damage
🧠 What Needs to Happen for the Next Altseason
For a real altseason to begin:
1️⃣ Bitcoin needs to stabilize and range after the dump
2️⃣ BTC dominance must peak and start rolling over
3️⃣ ETH and top alts should print higher lows on BTC pairs
⏳ Near-Term Expectations
Short term: High volatility and fake pumps
Mid term: Capital rotation into alts once Bitcoin stabilizes
Real altseason: Bitcoin stays calm, confidence returns, liquidity spreads
🔥 The Positive Side of the Bitcoin Dump
These pullbacks:
Flush out over-leveraged positions
Create strong accumulation zones for quality alts
Allow smart money to build positions quietly
💡 Bottom Line
Altseason isn’t immediate.
But a Bitcoin dump followed by stabilization often lays the foundation for the next altseason.
Patience is alpha.
Before altseason begins, the market usually shakes out weak hands 🧠🚀
🚀 JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $71,000! 🙌 After recent dips, $BTC is showing strength and signaling bullish momentum. Are we back on track for new highs? 📈
💡 Tip: Keep an eye on support levels and trading volumes – smart moves come from patience and strategy!
Aster Launches Layer-1 Testnet as Perp DEX Volume Surges
#Aster announced Thursday that its layer-1 blockchain testnet is now live for all users, with mainnet deployment targeted for Q1 2026. The platform plans to release fiat on-ramps, open-source developer tools, and the production network during the first quarter.
Aster rebranded as a perpetual futures DEX in March 2025, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Hyperliquid. Both platforms run on dedicated application-specific layer-1 blockchains instead of general-purpose networks like Ethereum or Solana — a growing trend toward custom infrastructure for high-throughput crypto trading.
Perpetual futures contracts differ from traditional futures by removing expiration dates. Traders pay funding rates to maintain positions indefinitely, enabling 24-hour markets without manual contract rollovers. This model gained massive traction in 2025 as institutional and retail investors increased derivatives exposure.
Cumulative trading volume on perpetual decentralized exchanges nearly tripled during 2025, rising from $4 trillion to over $12 trillion by year-end. Around $7.9 trillion of this volume occurred within the calendar year, with monthly volumes surpassing $1 trillion in October, November, and December.
The shift to dedicated layer-1 chains addresses throughput limitations of multi-purpose networks. More Web3 projects are deploying custom chains to handle specialized transaction flows rather than competing for block space on shared platforms.
Aster’s 2026 roadmap focuses on infrastructure expansion, token utility growth, and community building. The platform aims to capture a larger share of the perpetual futures market, which saw rapid adoption as cryptocurrency derivatives grew in prominence.
Strategy has released its Q4 2025 performance highlights, showing continued strength in both crypto holdings and traditional finance activities:
Bitcoin Holdings: 713,502 $BTC under management
BTC Yield: 22.8% for 2025, reflecting robust returns from crypto exposure
Equity Issuance: Largest US equity issuer, raising $25.3 billion in 2025
$STRC Token: Market cap scaled to $3.4 billion, with a current dividend rate of 11.25%
These results underscore Strategy’s ability to blend digital asset management with traditional financial growth. The strong BTC yield and equity issuance highlight a diversified approach that continues to deliver value to stakeholders.
Whales Are Down Billions — And That’s Actually a Good Sign
By Crypto Insider | 11h
At first glance, the latest whale unrealized losses chart looks brutal. Red bars, nine-figure losses, and some of crypto’s biggest names deep underwater.
But take a closer look. This isn’t collapse. It’s conviction.
The Numbers Nobody Talks About Unrealized losses among major whales:
Bitmine: ~$7.9B in $ETH
Strategy: ~$5.9B in $BTC
Trump Media: ~$473M
Vitalik Buterin: ~$350M
Tron Inc.: ~$22M
Cypherpunk: ~$14M
Murad: ~$12.7M
CZ: ~$0.8M in $BTC
Notice the pattern: losses aren’t isolated. They’re systemic. Institutions, founders, long-term builders — all in the red.
Why This Isn’t Panic
If panic selling worked, these whales would’ve exited ages ago. The losses are unrealized for a reason.
Large players size positions for volatility. They don’t react emotionally. When billions in losses appear across the market, it often signals:
Late-cycle fear
Exhausted sellers
Prices far below long-term value
Historically, clusters like this appear closer to market bottoms, not tops.
Time Horizon Is the Edge
Retail traders see fear. Whales see variance.
The difference isn’t info — it’s perspective. Whales plan for years, not weeks. They know volatility is just the price of upside.
Even with billions lost, no forced liquidation cascades. Balance sheets are strong. Conviction is intact.
The Real Risk
The worst mistake isn’t being wrong. It’s selling at peak pessimism. Unrealized losses are temporary — realized losses are permanent.
This chart is a reminder: smart money bleeds quietly… and waits.
If the biggest holders are still in the red, maybe patience beats panic.
Tech Shares and Bitcoin Stabilize After a Turbulent Week
After a week marked by sharp sell-offs across global markets, technology stocks and bitcoin showed early signs of stabilization on Friday, offering investors a cautious sense of relief.
Wall Street was set to open higher, with futures pointing to modest gains. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both up 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures climbed 0.6%, driven largely by a rebound in select technology names.
Tech Sector Under Pressure, But Signs of Recovery
Technology stocks have been under heavy pressure this week as investors questioned whether massive artificial intelligence investments by Big Tech firms will generate sustainable returns. Concerns intensified after Amazon announced plans to increase capital expenditure by more than 50%, pushing total spending to nearly $200 billion, largely focused on AI and related infrastructure. The announcement weighed on sentiment, with Amazon shares down 7% in premarket trading.
Adding to the pressure, U.S.-based AI startup Anthropic unveiled new AI tools that heightened fears of disruption across the traditional software and IT services industry. Investors reacted by selling off software stocks, concerned that many existing products and services could be replaced by increasingly sophisticated AI systems.
Despite the broader weakness, several semiconductor stocks rebounded sharply on Friday. Intel gained 1.6%, Advanced Micro Devices rose 2.4%, and AI heavyweight Nvidia climbed 3% in early trading, helping lift overall market sentiment.
Bitcoin Finds Support After Steep Declines
Bitcoin also appeared to stabilize after suffering heavy losses earlier in the week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency rebounded to around $66,229 on Friday, after plunging more than 12% on Thursday to below $63,000. The move marked a sharp pullback from its October record high above $124,000. Despite the rebound, bitcoin remains down roughly 20% for the week.
Crypto-related equities also recovered some of their recent losses. Strategy surged 6.7% in premarket trading after falling 17% the previous day, while Coinbase gained 5% after a 13.3% drop on Thursday.
Sharp Moves Outside the Tech Sector
Outside of technology, automaker Stellantis saw one of the steepest declines of the week. The company warned it would take a $26 billion loss as it scales back electric vehicle production, admitting it had “over-estimated the pace of the energy transition.” Stellantis said it is resetting its strategy to better align with real-world customer preferences. Shares plunged 25.4% before Friday’s opening bell.
Mixed Global Market Performance
European markets were mixed at midday, with France’s CAC 40 down 0.2%, Germany’s DAX up 0.1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edging 0.1% higher.
Asian markets mostly declined, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to 54,253.68, led by gains in technology-related stocks. SoftBank Group climbed 2.2%, while Tokyo Electron rose 2.6%. Toyota Motor added 2% after announcing a leadership transition, with CFO Kenta Kon set to replace CEO Koji Sato in April.
In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.4%, dragged down by tech stocks including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2%, while India’s Sensex edged 0.3% higher.
Commodities and Currencies
Precious metals remained volatile following a strong rally driven by geopolitical tensions. Gold rose less than 1% on Friday, while silver extended losses, falling another 3.5%.
In energy markets, U.S. crude oil slipped 23 cents to $63.06 per barrel, while Brent crude eased 16 cents to $67.39.
The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese yen, trading at 157.11, while the euro edged higher to $1.1791.
Market Outlook
While Friday’s rebound suggests a pause in the recent sell-off, investors remain cautious. Ongoing uncertainty around AI investment returns, crypto market volatility, and global economic shifts continue to shape sentiment. For now, markets appear to be searching for stability after one of the most volatile weeks of the year.
My advice to new traders 💛 Don’t chase pumps, and don’t fear dips. Trade with proper risk management, patience, and discipline. In crypto, long-term success doesn’t come from hype — it comes from consistency. 🚀
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My advice to new traders 💛 Don’t chase pumps, and don’t fear dips. Trade with proper risk management, patience, and discipline. In crypto, long-term success doesn’t come from hype — it comes from consistency. 🚀
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Crypto Market Sees Massive Reset as Bitcoin Falls to $65,000
The crypto market experienced a sharp sell-off, pushing Bitcoin (BTC) back to October 2024 price levels near $65,000 and triggering a $2.6 billion market-wide liquidation. The move marked one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history, ranking among the top 10 ever recorded, according to Coinglass data.
The sell-off was driven largely by aggressive unwinding of long positions, as volatility surged across major cryptocurrencies.
📉 Bitcoin & Ethereum Lead the Liquidations
🔸 Bitcoin (BTC)
Price: $65,030
24h change: -9.25%
Total liquidations: $1.38 billion
Long liquidations: $1.16 billion
Short liquidations: $221.5 million
This shows the sell-off was heavily long-biased, as overleveraged bullish positions were flushed out. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained “extremely bearish”, while discussion volume stayed extremely high, signaling panic-driven activity.
🔸 Ethereum (ETH)
Price: $1,910
24h change: -10.33%
Total liquidations: $576.34 million
Long liquidations: $455.72 million
Short liquidations: $120.62 million
Ethereum continued to dominate long-side capitulation among major assets. Retail sentiment improved slightly from bearish to neutral, though chatter levels remained extremely elevated.
👉 Combined BTC + ETH deleveraging exceeded $1.95 billion, highlighting a broad derivatives reset.
⚡ Bitcoin Faces a Volatility Shock
Analysts described the move as a positioning reset, with options-driven “max pain” dynamics playing a growing role.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility spiked to 88%, an extremely rare level
Futures liquidations reached historic extremes
Analysts suggest BTC may now be at or near “max pain”, where forced selling begins to fade
Market watchers believe the sell-off may be shifting from a directional dump to a phase driven by options flows and volatility compression, especially if macro conditions stabilize.
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel highlighted that:
BTC futures open interest dropped from $61B to $49B in just one week
This represents a 20%+ reduction in leveraged exposure
As Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a settlement FX asset, higher open interest levels may become normal due to ETF options and basis trading
🔻 Losses Spill Over Into Altcoins
The liquidation cascade spread across the altcoin market as correlated positions unwound:
📉 One of the largest liquidation events ever 🧹 Excess leverage has been aggressively flushed out ⚠️ Volatility remains elevated, but forced selling may be nearing exhaustion 🔄 Market could transition from panic selling to range-bound, options-driven trading
In short:
This was not just a price drop — it was a full market reset.
XRP failed to hold above the $1.50 level and experienced a sharp sell-off, dropping over 15% to a low of $1.1356. The price is now attempting to stabilize, but the overall short-term trend remains bearish.
Currently, XRP is:
Trading below $1.30
Below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average
Facing strong resistance from a bearish trend line
📉 How Did the Drop Happen?
Price broke below $1.50
Continued lower through $1.45 → $1.40 → $1.25
Formed a local bottom near $1.1356
A small recovery followed, reaching above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, but buyers remain weak