BeInCrypto Global

French prosecutors raided X’s Paris headquarters on Tuesday as part of a widening investigation into alleged child sexual abuse imagery, AI-generated deepfakes, and Holocaust denial on the platform.

The raid, supported by Europol, marks a significant escalation in European regulators’ crackdown on Elon Musk’s social media empire. Prosecutors have summoned Musk and former CEO Linda Yaccarino for “voluntary interviews” scheduled for April 20.

Investigation Scope

The Paris prosecutors’ cybercrime unit opened a preliminary investigation in January 2025, initially focusing on allegations that biased algorithms on X distorted automated data-processing systems. The probe expanded significantly after Musk’s AI chatbot Grok generated content that allegedly denied the Holocaust and produced sexually explicit deepfakes.

Charges under investigation include complicity in possessing and spreading child sexual abuse imagery and sexually explicit deepfakes. Prosecutors are also probing denial of crimes against humanity and manipulation of automated data processing systems as part of an organized group.

The prosecutors’ office announced the ongoing searches on X itself. It then declared it was leaving the platform, calling on followers to join it on other social media services.

Grok at the Center of Controversy

The xAI-developed chatbot Grok sparked global outrage last month. Its “spicy mode” generated tens of thousands of sexualized nonconsensual deepfake images in response to user requests.

The chatbot also posted Holocaust denial content in French. It claimed gas chambers at Auschwitz-Birkenau were designed for “disinfection with Zyklon B against typhus” rather than mass murder—language long associated with Holocaust deniers.

While Grok later reversed itself and acknowledged the error, the damage was done. Malaysia and Indonesia became the first countries to block Grok entirely, with Malaysia announcing legal action against X and xAI.

X Fires Back

In a statement posted on its own platform, X condemned the raid as “an abusive act of law enforcement theater designed to achieve illegitimate political objectives rather than advance legitimate law enforcement goals rooted in the fair and impartial administration of justice.”

The company denied all allegations, characterizing the French action as politically motivated censorship.

Durov Weighs In

Telegram founder Pavel Durov, who himself faces similar charges in France after his August 2024 arrest, defended X and attacked French authorities.

“French police is currently raiding X’s office in Paris. France is the only country in the world that is criminally persecuting all social networks that give people some degree of freedom (Telegram, X, TikTok…). Don’t be mistaken: this is not a free country,” Durov wrote on X.

In a follow-up comment, he added: “Weaponising child protection to legitimise censorship and mass surveillance is disgusting. These people will stop at nothing.”

Mixed Reactions

Durov’s characterization drew both support and pushback online. Some users echoed his framing, with one calling France’s approach a “Digital Autocracy starter pack” and describing Durov’s arrest as “the warning” of things to come.

Others urged nuance. “Platforms like Telegram and X aren’t just ‘freedom tools’. They can be used to spread hate, coordinate violence, and destabilise societies,” one user wrote. “Reducing it to ‘free country vs not free’ misses a lot of the reality on both sides.”

Regulatory Pressure Mounts

France is not alone in scrutinizing Musk’s platforms. Britain’s Information Commissioner’s Office opened formal investigations into how X and xAI handled personal data when developing Grok, while UK media regulator Ofcom continues a separate probe that could take months.

The European Union launched its own investigation last month following the deepfake incident and has already fined X €120 million for violations of digital regulations, including deceptive blue-checkmark practices.

The legal pressure comes as Musk consolidates his tech holdings. SpaceX announced Monday that it acquired xAI in a deal that would combine Grok, X, and the satellite communications company Starlink under one corporate umbrella—a move that could complicate regulatory oversight across multiple jurisdictions.

Solana has remained under sustained pressure after a prolonged decline that began well before recent market weakness intensified. The price drop gradually eroded confidence, prompting influential investors to adjust their positioning. 

Historical patterns now point to elevated downside risk. While oversold signals are emerging, broader data still reflect a cautious outlook for SOL.

Solana Holders Begin Pulling Back

Solana’s HODLer Net Position Change has started to trend lower. Receding green bars indicate that long-term holders are slowing accumulation. This cohort typically plays a stabilizing role during corrections. A reduction in buying activity suggests weakening conviction rather than aggressive distribution at current price levels.

Although the data does not confirm active selling, it highlights fading demand from influential investors. Reduced accumulation often limits recovery attempts during oversold phases. Without renewed buying pressure, SOL may struggle to sustain rebounds, especially if broader market conditions remain fragile.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Solana HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

HODL Waves provide additional insight into investor behavior. Wallets that accumulated SOL one to three months ago declined by 5%. Meanwhile, the share of holders aged three to six months increased by 4.5%. This shift shows that underwater investors continue holding despite unrealized losses.

While resilience remains, patience may not be unlimited. Historically, prolonged drawdowns test a holder’s conviction. If Solana’s price weakens further, these cohorts may begin distributing. Such behavior would add downside pressure and reinforce the prevailing bearish macro trend.

Solana HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode SOL Price Could See Further Decline

Solana is trading near $103, holding above the critical $100 support. This level aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension. Maintaining this zone is important for short-term stability. However, the failed rally places downside risk toward $95, corresponding with the 178.6% Fibonacci level.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators reflect oversold conditions. The Money Flow Index is nearing the oversold threshold. Historically, each dip below this level triggered short-lived rebounds. These bounces often failed to reverse the broader trend, leading to renewed declines after brief recoveries.

Solana MFI. Source: TradingView

In the near term, Solana may either defend $100 or rebound toward $107 resistance. A technical bounce remains possible due to oversold conditions. However, macro signals continue to favor downside risk. Without stronger demand, SOL appears vulnerable to another breakdown below $100.

The bearish outlook would be invalidated if Solana flips $107 into support. A sustained move higher could open the path toward $118. Securing that level requires consistent inflows and renewed investor confidence. Without capital returning to SOL, upside attempts are likely to remain limited.

Owing to the volatility often seen in the Solana meme coin market, survival itself is rare. Yet The White Whale (WHITEWHALE), a token born on Pump.fun launchpad in late 2025, has defied the odds.

WHITEWHALE has endured a violent sell-off, accusations of a rug pull, and relentless scrutiny from traders and analysts alike.

WHITEWHALE’s Wild Price Swings and the Origins of Its Meme Narrative

As of this writing, WHITEWHALE is trading at $0.089, with CoinGecko data showing a market capitalization of $89.6 million.

While the broader crypto market is down, the White Whale token posted a 180% gain over the last two weeks. This reflects just how extreme its price swings have been.

WHITEWHALE Token Price Chart. Source: CoinGecko

The WHITEWHALE meme coin launched in October 2025, inspired by X (Twitter) persona @TheWhiteWhaleV2, a well-known perpetuals trader remembered for an infamous $80 million liquidation.

The token had no roadmap, no promised utility, and no known founder, just a meme narrative and a fixed supply of nearly 1 billion tokens, as outlined in early community posts on Medium.

Concerned that scams using his likeness could damage his reputation, @TheWhiteWhaleV2 stepped in. By December, he had bought tokens, added liquidity, and helped coordinate a community takeover (CTO).

Pump.fun fees were redirected back to holders, and treasury activity was made public, an unusual move in Solana’s meme-heavy trenches.

But who ultimately controls the WHITEWHALE treasury today?

“I do. That is entirely the point. The token that bears my name, I take ultimate responsibility for. DAOs and other structures often give this space the illusion of a democracy that rarely ever exists. You’re trusting Jeff to be a good steward of HyperLiquid. You’re trusting The White Whale to be a good steward of his namesake,” The White Whale told BeInCrypto.

Early participants were rewarded handsomely, with reports highlighting cases where traders turned a few hundred dollars into over $1 million.

However, the same trader, Remus on X, lost almost all those gains a week later after cashing out only $220,000.

“This trader is down $1 million on WHITEWHALE Last week. Remus was up $1.5 million on WHITEWHALE. Unfortunately, he had cashed out only $220K by the time the price crashed -80%. He is now up only $464,000. Will Remus make it back? Or is it time to move on to the next coin? Arkham reported.

How Retail Revenge Sent WHITEWHALE Vertical

Momentum exploded in early January 2026. From a December low of $0.0082, the WHITEWHALE price surged nearly 930% to briefly test $0.20, per CoinGecko.

Its market cap crossed $200 million, making it one of the most successful Pump.fun launches in months, according to Messari.

WHITEWHALE Metrics. Source: Messari

Listings on exchanges including Bybit, MEXC, KuCoin, and LBank fueled volume spikes of up to $48 million in 24 hours.

On X, traders framed WHITEWHALE as “retail revenge,” a cultural pushback against bots, snipers, and insider-driven meme launches.

Then came the collapse.

Rug or Liquidity Event? Inside WHITEWHALE’s January 20 Crash

On January 20, 2026, a top holder sold roughly $1.3 million worth of tokens, triggering a rapid 60% price drop.

Market cap estimates fell from around $200 million to $20–40 million, sparking a social media eruption with claims of a rug pull.

While headlines labeled the event a rug pull, on-chain analysts using Bubblemaps traced the sell-off to a single major wallet, separate from Remus.

The team pushed back, calling it a “liquidity event” rather than an exit scam, but confidence was already shaken.

“…our largest private holder exited the majority of their position…we didn’t participate in the selling, although we did do some buybacks… What has changed is distribution. A single oversized private position is no longer sitting above the market. Supply is now spread across a broader set of holders. This wasn’t a treasury-driven event. This wasn’t a deviation from our stated principles. It was a liquidity event,” wrote The White Whale.

BeInCrypto asked The White Whale why this level of concentration had persisted despite the project’s anti-whale narrative. He replied that the project follows the core ethos of crypto: permissionless finance. He emphasized that traders should be allowed to do what they want.

“It should be noted that I did not launch this token. If I had, I would not have used any launchpad, as I do not believe any existing launchpad had the proper token supply/liquidity structure to protect investors from things like this. Naturally, we attempt to talk to as many of our remaining larger holders as possible, offer OTC deals to lessen market impact, etc, but people are allowed to do whatever they want.”

Most importantly, The White Whale refuted claims that a single wallet’s sell-off caused the overall crash. According to him, it triggered a panic-selling cascade.

Recovery Fueled by Locks, Shadowed by Control

Against expectations, the WHITEWHALE price rebounded. Within days, it posted daily gains of 70%+ and climbed back toward an $80–90 million market cap.

The treasury locked 40 million tokens for a year, reducing the circulating supply and signaling long-term intent, a move confirmed publicly by community figures on X.

“This cuts circulating supply hard, removes treasury selling pressure, and screams commitment to longevity – no short-term dumps here. Credible projects do this to build real trust; it’s the kind of discipline that sparks positive sentiment fast,” one user observed.       

On-chain data cited by Rootsdata suggests that the treasury and associated wallets control a significant share of the supply, reaching over 50%.

The top 10 WHITEWHALE holders collectively own 64.5% (612.6M Tokens) of the total supply. Source: Solscan

That concentration cuts both ways as supporters see it as protection against predatory dumping, while critics warn it leaves the token vulnerable to another sudden collapse.

There is no denying the risks. The WHITEWHALE token has no utility beyond narrative, and price swings of 60% or more remain common. Most traders still expect downside, considering most Solana meme coins eventually fail. But The White Whale himself remains optimistic that the project can inspire good standards for all future tokens.

“I think the entire point of a meme is that it doesn’t try to dress up as something it’s not. Many projects fail because they try to pretend to be more than what they are. Instead, we are leaning into what we are, and we are proud of what we are. The prime directive, then, if you will, of the $WhiteWhale movement is to prove that something can be successful while maintaining integrity. My personal goal is to set the bar so high that meme coin investors begin to demand similar transparency, stewardship, dedication, and integrity from all devs.”

Yet survival matters. In an ecosystem where many tokens vanish overnight, WHITEWHALE’s ability to recover, paired with transparent treasury actions, sets it apart.

However, it is also deeply risky, driven by whales, narrative, and momentum rather than fundamentals.

Risk FactorDetailsImpact LevelWhale Concentration54% in one addressHigh – Potential for massive dumpsVolatility60%+ swings weeklyExtreme – Retail wipeouts are commonRug HistoryJanuary 20 “liquidity event.”Medium – FUD lingers, but survivedNo UtilityNarrative-onlyHigh – Relies on hype cyclesCommunity StrengthTransparent locks, redistributionsMitigating – Builds loyalty

WHITEWHALE Meme Coin Risk Analysis

Therefore, the WHITEWHALE token may not be a scam, a view supported by its trading on major exchanges. It also posts real volume and maintains an active, dedicated community, as noted in exchange support documentation.

As a closing remark, BeInCrypto asked The White Whale what might happen to the token if he decides to step away.

“Ironically, if I were to get hit by a bus, it would probably be really bullish for price action. The project bears my name, though, and it’s impossible to even think about stepping away.“

Onyxcoin price is trying to stabilize after one of its sharpest corrections in months. The XCN coin has dropped nearly 60% between January 6 and January 31, following a massive 216% rally in late December and early January. Since then, price has been trading inside a falling wedge on the 12-hour chart, a pattern that usually signals weakening selling pressure.

At the same time, retail participation has slowed sharply, suggesting that many traders are staying cautious after the steep decline. Despite this hesitation, large holders are moving in the opposite direction, pointing to a growing divergence between smart money and broader market sentiment.

Retail Focuses on Bearish Signals as Buying Activity Slows

On the 12-hour chart, XCN continues to trade inside a falling wedge after its 60% correction. While this structure is technically bullish, it is now being challenged by a potential bearish crossover between the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMAs). If confirmed, this crossover would signal growing downside pressure and weaken the short-term recovery outlook.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

12-Hour XCN Price Structure: TradingView

This technical risk appears to be influencing retail behavior. Exchange flow data shows that buying activity has cooled significantly. In early January, daily exchange outflows peaked near 1.51 billion XCN, reflecting strong accumulation. By early February, outflows had dropped to around 13.16 million XCN, marking a decline of more than 99%.

Outflows Slowing Down: Santiment

Falling outflows mean fewer coins are being withdrawn from exchanges for long-term holding. This usually signals reduced confidence and weaker dip-buying demand. In practical terms, retail traders are choosing caution over accumulation as bearish signals build on higher timeframes.

This slowdown in participation helps explain why the price has struggled to generate strong follow-through despite holding inside a bullish pattern. But something seems to be changing fast!

Whales Accumulate Aggressively as Cost-Basis Zones Limit Downside

While retail interest has faded, large holders have been accumulating aggressively. Over the past 24 hours, XCN whale wallets increased their holdings from about 42.5 billion XCN to roughly 52.19 billion XCN. That represents an addition of nearly 10 billion tokens (9.7 billion to be exact).

XCN Whales: Santiment

At current prices, this accumulation is worth roughly $55 million, highlighting strong conviction from larger players.

This sudden buying behavior appears linked to favorable cost-basis zones. On-chain data shows a major demand cluster between $0.0052 and $0.0053, representing more than 5.2 billion XCN. This area acts as strong structural support, limiting downside risk even if the price weakens further.

Support Cluster: Glassnode

On the upside, a major supply cluster sits between $0.0060 and $0.0061, containing around 4.9 billion XCN. If the price breaks through this zone, led by whale buying, it could trigger forced covering and fresh momentum.

Key Sell Wall: Glassnode

Whales may be positioning early near support, betting that downside risk is limited while upside potential remains significant if resistance is cleared. And charts do show why the cluster on the upside might not be as strong as it looks.

Hidden Onyxcoin Price Divergence Explains Why Whales Are Positioning Early

The most important signal supporting whale optimism appears on the lower timeframe, which retail seems to have missed to date.

On the 4-hour chart, the XCN price has formed a bullish divergence between January 21 and February 3. During this period, price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, formed a higher low. This pattern often signals fading selling pressure and early bounces on a shorter timeframe

At the same time, price is approaching the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour timeframe. This level has acted as a key trigger in the past. On January 28, a clean reclaim of this EMA led to an 18% rally within days.

A similar setup is now developing, but with a more layered, domino-like angle.

If the XCN price manages a sustained 4-hour close above $0.0057, which aligns with the EMA and short-term resistance, momentum could accelerate. The next target would sit near $0.0061. A break above this zone would clear the major supply cluster (discussed earlier) and open the door toward $0.0070 and potentially $0.0076 in a relief rally.

Onyxcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

This layered structure explains whale behavior. They are positioning near strong support, ahead of a possible divergence-driven breakout, while retail remains focused on higher-timeframe risks. The structure turns bearish only if the Onyxcoin price closes under $0.0052 on the 4-hour timeframe.

Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are staging high-profile grocery giveaways in New York City as lawmakers debate legislation that could sharply restrict their business in the state.

The timing places both companies squarely in the political orbit of Zohran Mamdani. This new mayor’s affordability agenda includes a proposal for city-run, non-profit grocery stores.

Free Groceries as Political Backdrop

Polymarket announced today that it had signed a lease for a temporary pop-up it is calling “New York’s first free grocery store,” set to open February 12. The company also said it donated $1 million to Food Bank For New York City.

Kalshi held a separate, shorter “free grocery” event earlier. It covered shoppers’ bills for a limited period at a Manhattan supermarket.

Neither company said the initiatives were coordinated with City Hall. 

However, the language and framing closely mirror Mamdani’s campaign proposal to open publicly owned grocery stores in all five boroughs to lower food prices.

Mamdani’s Plan and the City’s Limits

Mamdani has argued that city-owned grocery stores could reduce costs by operating on a non-profit basis and using public property to cut rent and overhead. The proposal remains at the pilot-concept stage, with no finalized implementation timeline.

Importantly, the mayor has no direct authority over the regulation of prediction markets. Oversight of those platforms sits at the state and federal levels.

Still, Mamdani’s affordability messaging has become a focal point in New York’s political discourse, making it a natural reference point for companies seeking public legitimacy.

State Lawmakers Move in Parallel

At the same time, New York state lawmakers are advancing proposals that could directly affect platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

One proposal, often referred to as the ORACLE Act, would restrict or prohibit certain categories of prediction contracts for New York residents and place tighter limits on event-based markets. 

Separate legislation would require prediction market operators to obtain state licenses before operating. These measures are driven by concerns that some contracts resemble unregulated gambling or could be vulnerable to manipulation.

Overall, by tying their branding to food affordability and local philanthropy, both platforms appear to be positioning themselves as civic-minded New York companies at a moment when their future in the state remains uncertain.

Hyperliquid has recorded a sharp price surge as anticipation builds around the launch of HIP-4. HYPE has rallied strongly in recent sessions, driven by interest in fully collateralized outcome contracts. 

These contracts settle within fixed price ranges and cap gains and losses. The design suits prediction markets and options-style DeFi strategies. While optimism is rising, demand has not yet peaked.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Impact Yet To Be Reflected In Price

Despite HYPE’s strong performance, social dominance remains relatively muted. Data shows limited discussion compared with similar price outliers.

This suggests the rally has not attracted broad retail attention. Lower social exposure often reduces the risk of overcrowded positioning, which can support trend sustainability during volatile market phases.

Another factor appears to be trader fatigue. Many market participants remain cautious after repeated single-asset pumps during a broader bear cycle. Additionally, HIP-4 developments have not fully reached mainstream crypto audiences.

This delayed awareness is preventing excessive speculation and helping HYPE avoid entering overbought territory.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

HYPE Social Volume. Source: Santiment

Derivatives data highlights strong bullish exposure in the futures market. Liquidation maps show a clear dominance of long positions. Long-side liquidations stand near $3.86 million, while short liquidations total just $93,700. This imbalance reflects confident positioning among traders expecting continued upside.

Such skewed exposure often fuels momentum during rising trends. As the price climbs, HYPE shorts are forced to cover, reinforcing upward pressure. However, risk remains concentrated.

The largest liquidation cluster sits near $26. A move toward that level would trigger $3.86 million liquidation, challenging bullish structure and weakening confidence across leveraged positions.

HYPE Liquidation Map. Source; Coinglass HYPE Price Could Charge Towards ATH

HYPE price is trading near $36 at the time of writing. The token gained almost 20% in the last 24 hours. This move builds on a 76% rally over the past two weeks.

The acceleration reflects strong demand and growing interest in Hyperliquid’s upcoming protocol changes.

The rally has largely been driven by anticipation rather than post-launch speculation. This dynamic suggests upside may persist following the HIP-4 rollout. Investor inflows remain strong, and there is no clear evidence of distribution. If broader market conditions stabilize, HYPE could extend gains further.

HYPE CMF. Source: TradingView

From current levels, HYPE remains 60.5% below its all-time high of $59. Recent momentum suggests this gap could narrow quickly. Short-term targets include reclaiming $42 and $47 as support. Holding these levels would confirm trend strength and keep the ATH within reach.

HYPE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, downside risk remains if sentiment shifts or momentum weakens. A loss of the $30 support would expose HYPE to deeper declines. Under that scenario, the price could fall toward $26. A breakdown at that level would invalidate the bullish thesis and trigger large-scale liquidations.

Zcash price is sinking deeper into bearish territory as both price and trading activity continue to weaken. The privacy-focused token is down nearly 5% over the past 24 hours and has now fallen more than 44% over the past month.

Zcash still shows year-on-year gains of nearly 700%. Today, that rally feels distant. Selling pressure is building, trader interest is fading, and price is steadily moving toward its next major downside target near $200. With momentum weakening across multiple indicators, the market is now questioning whether a deeper decline is becoming unavoidable.

Head-and-Shoulders Breakdown and Volume Crash Put Zcash’s $200 Target in Focus

Zcash’s current decline began with a clear technical breakdown in late January. On January 31, the token completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bearish formation that often signals trend reversals. Since then, the ZEC price has consistently respected the breakdown structure.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

ZEC Price Structure: TradingView

At the same time, trading activity has collapsed. Dune data shows that Zcash’s total centralized exchange volume peaked on January 9. On that day, the combined daily volume crossed $1.5 billion. By February 2, daily volume had dropped to around $450 million. This represents a decline of roughly 70% in just three weeks.

Zcash Trading Volume Dips: Dune

Such a sharp fall in activity signals fading trader interest. Fewer participants mean weaker liquidity and less support during sell-offs. In practice, this makes price declines easier to sustain.

Capital Flows Turn Negative as Whale Selling Overwhelms Smart Money Buying

Capital flow indicators confirm that selling pressure remains dominant. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether money is entering or leaving an asset using price and volume, has been trending lower since late December.

CMF peaked around December 27, when Zcash was forming the “head” of its pattern. Since then, it has failed to break above its downward trendline. In early February, CMF finally slipped below the zero line, signaling that outflows are now outweighing inflows.

Capital Flows Weaken: TradingView

In other words, more capital is leaving Zcash than entering it.

Exchange data and whale positioning reinforce this view. Over the past 24 hours, Zcash exchange reserves have surged by more than 64%.

Rising reserves usually mean that holders are moving coins to exchanges in preparation to sell. Additionally, large holders have reduced exposure by more than 35% in recent sessions. This aligns with the declining CMF and points to increasing supply pressure.

Key Zcash Holders: Nansen

Against this backdrop, only one data point offers limited optimism. “Smart money” wallets increased their Zcash holdings by around 9% over the past 24 hours. While these traders are often well-timed, their activity remains small compared with the broader outflows.

For now, selective accumulation is being overwhelmed by widespread selling.

Zcash Price Action Shows Why Smart Money’s Bet Still Looks Risky

The Zcash price structure reflects this imbalance clearly. Zcash has now broken below the $289 support zone.

The next meaningful support sits near $262. Below that, the primary technical target from the head-and-shoulders pattern lies around $200. From current levels near $284, this implies a potential downside of nearly 30%.

So far, price action shows little sign of stabilizing.

Zcash Price Analysis: TradingView

If smart money accumulation leads to a short-term bounce, Zcash would first need to reclaim $289 cleanly. A move above this level could open a path toward $317, which aligns with Fibonacci resistance and prior consolidation zones. However, even such a rebound would likely remain corrective rather than structural.

In many cases, rallies inside confirmed downtrends serve mainly to flush out short positions before declines resume. Without strong volume and capital inflows, these moves tend to fade. For the broader bearish structure to weaken meaningfully, Zcash would need to reclaim the $407 area near the right shoulder of the pattern. Until that happens, the head-and-shoulders formation remains intact.

After weeks of heavy pressure, down over 12%, MicroStrategy stock is trying to stabilize. Bitcoin’s rebound near $79,000 at press time helped ease fears around the company’s average cost basis, which briefly dominated market sentiment in late January.

For a while, investors worried that a deeper Bitcoin price drop could push MSTR into unrealized losses. Now that the immediate risk has faded, attention is shifting to whether a price recovery can surface. Correlation data, capital flows, and price structure suggest the stock has entered a high-risk zone, where the next major BTC move could shape its direction for weeks.

Bitcoin Correlation Explains Why MicroStrategy Fell Faster

Since early October, MicroStrategy has fallen by roughly 62%, while Bitcoin has declined about 38% over the same period. This gap highlights how MSTR behaves like a leveraged version of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin weakens, MicroStrategy usually falls harder because investors also factor in balance-sheet exposure, debt, and sentiment risk.

MSTR-BTC Drawdown: TradingView

Dune data support this relationship. The 90-day rolling correlation between MSTR and Bitcoin is close to 0.97 (close to 1), which means the two assets have been moving in the same direction almost every day.

MSTR-BTC Correlation: Dune

However, this does not contradict the larger drawdown. Correlation measures direction, not size. It shows that MSTR follows Bitcoin’s trend, but leverage and structural risks amplify the moves.

90-Day Correlation Nears 1: Dune

This dynamic became clear in late January, when Bitcoin briefly dipped under MicroStrategy’s average purchase price of around $76,000. That moment triggered fears of unrealized losses and added pressure on the stock. Bitcoin’s rebound above $78,000 reduced that threat and helped calm sentiment.

MicroStrategy Holdings: Strategy

Still, the correlation remains extremely high. If Bitcoin weakens again, the MSTR stock price is likely to follow, which keeps downside risk elevated.

Money Flow And Volume Send Mixed Signals

Capital flow data presents a more complex picture. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether money is entering or leaving an asset using price and volume, has been trending higher since mid-January. Between January 14 and February 2, MSTR stock prices moved lower, yet CMF continued rising. This bullish divergence suggests that large investors were quietly accumulating during weakness.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Big Money Support: TradingView

CMF is now approaching the zero line, which separates net inflows from net outflows. A sustained move above zero would confirm that buying pressure is outweighing selling. The last clean break above this level came in early September, after which the stock rallied nearly 25%. This makes CMF a key trigger for any recovery attempt.

However, the MicroStrategy stock volume tells a different story. On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether trading volume supports price trends, has been trending lower. During the recent decline, OBV fell alongside price and broke below its rising trendline. This signals weakening participation and fading retail interest.

Volume Breakdown: TradingView

Together, these indicators send mixed signals. CMF points to selective accumulation by larger players, while OBV shows that broader market engagement remains weak, probably due to the recent cost-basis hit.

When these metrics diverge, rallies often struggle to gain momentum. Without strong participation, upside moves tend to fade quickly. As a result, even if institutions are positioning early, sustained gains will likely require stronger Bitcoin performance.

Key MicroStrategy Stock Price Levels Show a 20% Decision Zone Ahead

With indicators sending conflicting messages, the MSTR price levels now matter more than ever. The most important support sits near $139. This level has held multiple tests and aligns with Fibonacci support from the October decline, making it the market’s main decision point.

If $139 fails on a daily close, downside risk would increase sharply. In that scenario, prices could slide toward $107, implying roughly 20% further downside. Such a move would likely coincide with renewed weakness in Bitcoin. A deeper breakdown would likely coincide with renewed Bitcoin weakness.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near $170, also at around 20% from current levels. This level has capped several rebound attempts and remains a key barrier. A sustained break above $170 would improve the technical structure and signal returning confidence. Above that, the next hurdle sits near $190.

Clearing this zone would shift the trend decisively bullish and confirm that capital inflows are translating into price strength.

MicroStrategy Price Analysis: TradingView

At present, MicroStrategy is centered near $139, with risk toward $107 and resistance near $170. This wide range represents nearly 20% in either direction, forming a two-sided decision zone. Bitcoin’s behavior will likely determine which side breaks first. A move above $80,000 could help MSTR challenge $170, while continued choppiness may prolong consolidation. If Bitcoin turns lower, support near $139 becomes vulnerable.

Until a clear breakout occurs, volatility is likely to remain high, and every rally risks reversal.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and settle in—markets are moving in ways that leave even seasoned investors squinting at charts. Gold and silver are surging, crypto is wobbling, and Washington’s policy plays are stirring uncertainty. But according to Tom Lee, somewhere in the chaos, a turning point may be quietly forming.

Crypto News of the Day: Tom Lee Says White House Front-Loading Midterm Wins Is Wrecking Markets

Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee is sounding a cautious yet optimistic note for crypto investors, arguing that recent turbulence in Bitcoin and Ethereum may be temporary.

Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Lee attributed the early-year surge in gold and silver prices to Washington, D.C.’s policy maneuvers.

He says the White House’s plays have temporarily “hijacked” risk appetite, creating a “vortex” that drew capital away from crypto despite strong fundamentals.

Gold spiked to $4,954.99 per ounce, a 6.5% daily jump, while silver surged 13.66% to $87.53. This marks the largest single-day gains for both metals since the 2008 financial crisis.

Lee tied this frenzy to crypto’s ill-timed deleveraging in October 2025.

“The crypto industry doesn’t have any leverage right now,” he said. “Gold and silver’s performance sucked all risk appetite towards the precious metals trade.”

Lee also highlighted Washington politics as a central driver of market uncertainty. With midterms approaching, he criticized the White House for “deliberately picking more winners and losers early,” front-loading its agenda and keeping markets “hostage.”

Speculation around the next Federal Reserve chair adds further volatility, with Lee warning that markets will test the appointee’s resolve on policy and rates, echoing patterns seen with former chairs Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell.

While the consensus expects Republicans to lose the House, Lee noted that a GOP retention could deliver a “positive surprise.”

Signs Point to a Crypto Bottom Amid Gold and Silver Frenzy

Despite near-term headwinds, Lee sees signals that crypto may be bottoming. Fundstrat advisor Tom DeMark believes “time and price” alignment has been reached, with Bitcoin back above $78,000 and Ethereum nearing $2,300.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Lee added that Ethereum’s active addresses are “going parabolic,” as Wall Street increasingly integrates digital assets.

“All the pieces are in place for crypto to be bottoming right now,” he said, contrasting price weakness with network activity.

This view aligns with analysts’ notes on potential capital rotation, with some highlighting gold’s 11% rebound from recent lows, adding $3.07 trillion, and silver’s 20% surge, reclaiming $800 billion.

Analyst Bull Theory compares this setup to August 2020, when gold topped at $2,075, Bitcoin fell 20%, then rallied 559% over eight months as capital flowed back into risk assets.

With the ISM Manufacturing Index at 52.6%, the analyst suggested a similar rotation may be underway:

“Gold likely topping, and Bitcoin already having corrected, we could now see a rotation into risk-on assets,” they said.

However, not all commentary is bullish. Analyst Wimar.X warns that the metals’ surge signals a “broken system,” echoing pre-crash conditions in 2000, 2007, and 2019.

With the gold-to-silver ratio near 56, they argued that institutions are “exiting the casino,” potentially foreshadowing a 2026 collapse.

Gold to Silver Ratio. Source: JM Bullion

Lee, however, emphasized that the broader economic backdrop remains strong. Stocks were up 1% in January, historically correlating to 18% annual S&P gains in similar periods since 1950.

Even as AI and tech valuations may mean-revert, he sees precious metals taking a “breather” as healthy for markets, potentially clearing the way for crypto’s next move.

The question now is whether Washington-driven flows will continue to favor metals or if Bitcoin and Ethereum are ready for a rebound.

Chart of the Day

Gold to Bitcoin Ratio in 2026. Source: Milk Road

The Gold to Bitcoin dominance ratio compares the market cap of both assets.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Bitcoin’s safety net comes into view as Galaxy Digital warns of deeper pullback.

Ethereum price warning: $1,500 risk appears as a bullish metric drops 90%.

Bitcoin slips below $80,000 as large holders exit — But bounce signals are emerging.

XRP price under pressure: ETF outflows, holder losses, and a possible rebound.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock barely escapes cost-basis scare — A 20% price swing awaits?

Why Vitalik Buterin sold over 700 Ethereum (ETH) despite market recovery.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

CompanyClose As of February 2Pre-Market OverviewStrategy (MSTR)$139.66$140.80 (+0.82%)Coinbase (COIN)$187.86$189.53 (+0.89%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$26.44$26.95 (+1.93%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$9.12$9.18 (+0.66%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$15.32$15.53 (+1.37%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$17.87$18.05 (+1.01%)

Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

The Ethereum price is showing early signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off in late January. ETH has rebounded about 4.6% over the past 24 hours after dipping near $2,160. On the surface, this looks like a relief bounce inside a broader falling wedge pattern.

But on-chain data tells a more cautious story. While the bullish structure has not fully broken, long-term holder behavior and profit-loss metrics are weakening. Together, they suggest that this rebound may lack strong conviction. If these trends persist, Ethereum could remain vulnerable to another leg lower, with even $1,500 in sight.

A 37% Price Drop Couldn’t Break Pattern, But There’s A Catch

Since mid-January, Ethereum has fallen nearly 37% to lows around $2,160. The decline followed a clear bearish divergence.

Between January 6 and January 14, ETH made a higher high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower high. RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. When price rises, but RSI weakens, it signals fading buying pressure. This divergence often leads to trend reversals, and Ethereum responded accordingly.

Despite the sharp drop, the price has stayed inside a falling wedge. A falling wedge forms when the price makes lower highs and lower lows inside narrowing trendlines. It is usually a bullish structure that signals weakening selling pressure.

Ethereum Holds Structure: TradingView

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

So structurally, Ethereum has not fully broken down. However, something more important has weakened: long-term holder conviction.

Hodler Net Position Change tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or selling. On January 18, the 30-day net position change peaked near +338,708 ETH. This showed strong accumulation.

By February 2, that figure had collapsed to around +40,953 ETH. That is a drop of nearly 90%.

Hodlers Accumulating Fewer Coins: Glassnode

This means long-term holders have sharply reduced buying during the correction. When conviction holders do not accumulate into weakness, it usually signals that the market has not reached a true bottom. Strong bottoms form when long-term holders keep accumulating even as prices fall. That is not happening now.

Paper Profits And Exchange Transfers Show Rallies Are Being Sold

The second warning comes from Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and exchange transfer data.

NUPL measures how much profit or loss holders have on paper. It compares current prices with the average purchase price. When NUPL is high, most investors are in profit. When it turns negative, many are at a loss.

In late January, Ethereum’s NUPL dropped from around 0.25 to near 0.007 by February 1. This shows that profits have almost vanished, but not completely.

NUPL Reset Needed: Glassnode

However, on a one-year view, NUPL is still far from true capitulation.

In April 2025, NUPL fell to −0.22. That marked deep fear and capitulation. After that, ETH rallied from about $1,472 to $4,829, a surge of roughly 228%. Today, NUPL is nowhere near those levels.

This suggests that large-scale capitulation has not happened yet. There may still be room for further downside before a durable bottom forms.

Exchange transfer data adds to this risk. During the late-January drop, numbers of transfers (not coins) fell to around 23,000–24,000 per day. This showed reduced selling pressure near the lows. But during the rebound between February 1 and February 2, transfers jumped to above 37,000.

That is a rise of more than 50% in one day. This means many holders (possibly the speculative ones) used the bounce to move ETH to exchanges and likely sell. When every rebound triggers a spike in transfers, it signals that rallies are being distributed, not accumulated.

Exchange Transfers Surge: Glassnode

This pattern highlights a growing divide between speculative traders and longer-term capital.

Gil Rosen, Co-Founder of the Blockchain Builders Fund, described this split in an exclusive quote to BeInCrypto:

“There are two separate capital flows. There is institutional capital that was beginning to heavily invest in crypto across all asset classes, and then there are retail flows. Institutional capital is always macro first, and when markets shift, crypto is still viewed as a risk asset. Meanwhile, short-term speculative capital surged in Q4,” he highlighted

This behavior keeps upward moves weak.

Ethereum Price Levels Show Why $1,500 Is Back in Play

With structure holding but conviction weakening, the Ethereum price levels now matter more than indicators. The first key support sits near $2,250. This level has acted as a short-term base after the rebound.

Below that, $2,160 remains critical. This marks the recent low and is closer to the lower boundary of the falling wedge. A confirmed break below this zone would weaken the bullish Ethereum price structure.

If $2,160 fails and also the lower wedge trendline , risk opens toward the $1,540 region, a key Fib extension level to the downside. This kind of dip would also bring NUPL closer to historical capitulation levels and the price near the April 2025 zone.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

That is where a deeper reset could occur. On the upside, Ethereum must reclaim $2,690 to change the narrative. This level marks a major Fibonacci resistance and a prior breakdown zone.

Only a sustained move above $2,690 would signal that buyers are regaining control. Until then, rallies between $2,250 and $2,690 are likely to face heavy selling pressure. As long as ETH remains trapped in this range, every bounce risks becoming another exit opportunity.

The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached 52.6 in January 2026, breaking above the critical 50 level for the first time in a year.

The January reading marks a shift from contraction to expansion. Investors and analysts are now exploring links between manufacturing PMI trends and Bitcoin price cycles.

US PMI Breaks Expansion Threshold After Year-Long Slump

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is a closely watched economic gauge that offers an early snapshot of the health of the US manufacturing sector. The index is released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across the country. These executives report on changes in new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories, providing real-time insight into factory activity.

The PMI is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity, while a figure below 50 points to contraction.

In January 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI beat forecasts, rising to 52.6 from 47.9 in December 2025. This marked the strongest reading since August 2022 and signaled a return to expansion after nearly a year of contraction.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI For January 2026. Source: Trading Economics

It was also the first time the index moved above the 50 threshold since January 2025. The 4.6-point jump represents a notable turnaround in sentiment within the manufacturing sector.

What Does Manufacturing PMI Expansion Mean for Bitcoin?

The latest rebound in the US Manufacturing PMI has fueled optimism across the crypto community. The key question is: why? Analysts suggest that periods of PMI expansion have often coincided with major Bitcoin rallies.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe echoed a similar view, pointing out that previous Bitcoin and crypto bull markets tended to unfold when the PMI remained above the 50 level.

With the index now back in expansion territory, he suggested that macro conditions could once again support sustained upside momentum across the digital asset market.

“The previous bull markets on Bitcoin and Crypto happened when it was above 50. We came from the longest period <50 without a recession. It’s time for Bitcoin to shine. We’re a lot closer to the end of the bear market,” he wrote.

Crypto analyst TheRealPlanC also argued that Bitcoin should be analyzed through a broader macroeconomic and business-cycle framework, rather than relying solely on the traditional four-year halving narrative.

“If you don’t upgrade your understanding of the Bitcoin cycle from the 4-year halving mirage mindset to a business cycle / macro mindset fast… You will miss the boat completely on the second massive leg of this Bitcoin bull market!” the post read.

Manufacturing PMI: Monetary Policy Indicator, Not a Direct Bitcoin Catalyst

Some analysts caution that the PMI surge is not a direct driver of Bitcoin price action. Brett argued that the index mainly signals future monetary policy changes. Understanding this difference is key to expectations around the crypto market.

“ISM is not a 1:1 indicator for Bitcoin. It’s a better indicator of future Fed policy,” he said.

Brett noted that while the reading is broadly bullish for the economy, it carries an important caveat for markets. A stronger ISM typically reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Historically, periods in which the ISM remains in expansion territory have seen the Fed more inclined to pause or even hike rates rather than pivot toward easing. Higher interest rates are generally unfavorable for crypto markets. Tighter financial conditions tend to reduce liquidity and dampen risk appetite for assets like Bitcoin.

The analyst also pointed to several historical divergences between Bitcoin and the index. In 2014 to 2015 and again in 2018 to 2019, ISM readings ranged from 52 to 59, yet Bitcoin entered extended bear markets.

Conversely, from 2023 to 2025, the ISM stayed below 50 for roughly two years while Bitcoin surged by around 700%.

With the outlook split, the coming months will be key in determining whether the improvement in US manufacturing activity translates into a sustained Bitcoin recovery or remains a macro signal with limited impact on crypto prices.

XRP continues to struggle as selling pressure keeps the token locked in a month-long downtrend heading into February. A recent sharp pullback has reinforced bearish sentiment, weighing on both spot markets and related investment products.

The weakness has also carried over into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), where flow volatility highlights lingering investor caution. Nevertheless, signs of stabilization are appearing beneath the surface, which would determine whether XRP price will further downside or recover.

XRP ETFs Are Yet To Do Better

Spot XRP ETFs posted net outflows of $404,690 on Monday despite closing the previous week on a positive note, recording $16.79 million on Friday. The improvement in ETF flows was reversed as this week began, signaling a comeback of selling pressure.

The shift shows that the macro bearishness hasn’t disappeared completely yet, given that on Thursday, January 29, XRP ETFs recorded $92.92 million in outflows, the largest since launch. That session coincided with a broader market crash and a 9% drop in XRP price.

Stabilizing flows offer much-needed support for restoring market confidence, a key requirement for any XRP price recovery. However, broader sentiment remains fragile, as doubts about a sustained rebound continue to weigh on investor outlook.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

XRP Spot ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue Saturating Losses Could Prevent Sell-Off

On-chain data shows short-term holders facing heavy unrealized losses. The STH Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric currently sits at -0.38. This marks the deepest loss level since July 2022 and a three and a half year high. This reflects widespread capitulation among recent XRP buyers.

Despite appearing negative, rising STH losses may reduce immediate selling risk. Short-term holders are historically reactive, often selling quickly during profit periods. With losses deepening, selling incentives weaken.

This dynamic can temporarily suppress supply, giving XRP price space to stabilize and attempt a recovery if demand improves.

XRP STH-NUPL. Source: Glassnode XRP Price Bounceback Likely

XRP price is trading near $1.62 at the time of writing, sitting below the $1.70 resistance. The altcoin has remained in a steady downtrend since early January. Last week’s 16% decline reinforced bearish structure, keeping XRP below key moving averages and limiting upside momentum.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, these two factors suggest a short-term rebound remains possible. The first is that the short-term holder losses appear saturated, lowering distribution risk. The second is that momentum indicators show XRP is oversold, increasing the probability of a technical bounce toward $1.79.

The Money Flow Index currently sits near the oversold threshold. A decisive dip into oversold territory often precedes reversals. In a similar setup previously, XRP surged 14% within 48 hours. If broader market conditions remain supportive, a comparable reaction could unfold during this recovery attempt.

XRP MFI. Source: TradingView

However, downside risk persists if bullish momentum fails to materialize. A rejection below $1.70 may expose XRP to renewed selling pressure. Under this scenario, the price could fall to $1.54 or even $1.47. Losing these support levels would invalidate the bullish thesis and extend the ongoing decline.

Litecoin (LTC) has dropped nearly 60% from last year’s peak and has returned to the lows seen in previous market cycles. Despite remaining one of the more liquid altcoins, LTC has struggled to overcome the market’s increasingly negative pressure.

However, several signals suggest that demand for LTC is still present. This may not lead to an immediate price rebound, but it provides support for Litecoin to endure and wait for a recovery opportunity.

Emerging LTC Demand Despite The Sharp Decline

One notable recent development is that SBI VC Trade, a cryptocurrency exchange under Japan’s SBI Holdings, has expanded its crypto lending services to include LTC.

Japanese users can now lend LTC through the Lending Coin program to earn interest. The program currently supports more than 30 cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, DOT, LINK, ADA, DOGE, and SHIB.

In addition, the latest report from CoinGate — a leading crypto payment gateway that allows businesses to accept cryptocurrency payments — shows that LTC accounts for 17.7% of all payment transactions on the platform. This places it behind only BTC and USDC.

The Ratio of Payments on CoinGate by Altcoin. Source: Coingate

The Litecoin Foundation stated that this figure has increased from 16.4% in December last year.

These developments reflect sustained demand for LTC. Still, the demand remains insufficient to offset the broader selling pressure across the market.

Positive On-chain Signals Help LTC Absorb Selling Pressure

Other on-chain indicators suggest that Litecoin’s internal momentum remains strong and may even be strengthening in early 2026.

For example, Litecoin’s optional privacy layer, MWEB, has set a new record for peg-ins, surpassing 400,000 LTC.

LTC MWEB Balance Over Time. Source: Litecoin

MWEB enhances Litecoin transactions with privacy features, including confidential transactions and stealth addresses. The rising amount of LTC being pegged in indicates growing demand for private on-chain transactions. This trend could help absorb part of the selling pressure.

“Litecoin’s opt-in privacy layer, MWEB, set a new record for peg-ins last month. Real-world utility has been the mission since day one,” Litecoin noted.

Additionally, data from BitInfoCharts highlights a rare divergence between Litecoin’s average on-chain transaction value and its market price.

Litecoin Average Transaction Value vs Price. Source: BitInfoCharts

Typically, the average transaction value moves in the same direction as the price. In recent months, however, while LTC has fallen roughly 55% since October last year, the average on-chain transaction value has continued to rise.

This divergence may suggest accumulation activity from investors who view broader market selling as an opportunity.

Still, with LTC trading around $60 — down 85% from its all-time high and 60% from last year’s top — any recovery is likely to remain a difficult journey.

For years, RWA tokenization was a tomorrow story. In 2026, it has officially become a today reality. While the retail market often fixates on the price action of speculative tokens, a far more profound transformation is occurring in the boring sectors of the industry, trade finance, regulated credit, and treasury management. As we move through 2026, it has become increasingly clear that the future of blockchain lies in Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, and the global epicenter of this shift is Brazil.

The recent milestone reached by Liqi Digital Assets and the XDC Network, surpassing 100US$ million in tokenized RWAs is not just a win for two companies. It is a signal to the global financial community that the era of blockchain pilots is over. We have entered the era of institutional scale.

The Brazilian Exceptionalism

To understand why Brazil is leading the world in RWA tokenization, one must look at the unique synergy between its regulators and its private sector. While other major economies have struggled with regulation by enforcement or political deadlock, Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) have treated blockchain as a primary tool for financial modernization.

The BCB’s Drex (Digital Real) project has provided a philosophical and technical North Star for the country. By signaling that the future of the Brazilian Real is on-chain, the government has given a green light to the nation’s largest financial institutions.

Today, the participation of giants like Banco Itaú, Banco ABC, and Banco BV is not experimental, it is operational. These institutions, alongside specialized credit managers like Milenio Capital, are using tokenization to solve real world problems, such as reducing the cost of capital, shortening settlement cycles, and eliminating the manual errors that have plagued credit markets for decades.

Crossing the US$ 100M Threshold

In the lifecycle of a financial technology, certain numbers act as proof of life. For Liqi, the $100 million mark represents the transition from a startup with a good idea to a systemic player in the Brazilian credit market.

This volume represents a diverse array of regulated assets, including Corporate Credit Notes (CCBs) and other structured financial instruments. When you move $100 million on a blockchain, you are no longer testing if the technology works; you are proving that the compliance, the legal wrappers, and the secondary market liquidity are robust enough for professional fiduciaries.

“Surpassing the US$ 100 million mark is a significant milestone for Liqi and for Brazil’s digital asset ecosystem,” says Daniel Coquieri, CEO of Liqi Digital Assets.

“But this is just the foundation. Our target of US$ 500 million in issuances through 2026 reflects a growing appetite from institutional investors who see tokenization not as a ‘crypto’ play, but as a more efficient way to manage debt and credit.”

Why Infrastructure is the Ultimate Competitive Advantage

As the RWA sector matures, the conversation is shifting from what is being tokenized to where it is being settled. For institutional issuers, the choice of a blockchain network is a risk-management decision.

In the early days of tokenization, many projects defaulted to Ethereum due to its liquidity. However, the congestion tax, volatile gas fees that can spike from $2 to $50 in an hour make it unusable for high-frequency or high-volume credit settlement. If a business is trying to settle a $5,000 credit installment, a $20 gas fee destroys the economic utility of the transaction.

This is why the XDC Network has emerged as the preferred rails for the Liqi ecosystem. XDC was designed specifically for enterprise and institutional use cases, focusing on pillars that retail-centric chains often ignore.

The selection of the XDC Network as the primary infrastructure for the Liqi ecosystem is driven by a focus on enterprise utility over retail speculation. Unlike general-purpose chains, XDC addresses the specific friction points of institutional finance, starting with ISO 20022 compliance.

By aligning with this global messaging standard, the network ensures seamless interoperability with legacy banking systems like Swift, effectively bridging the gap between traditional ledgers and the blockchain.

This is reinforced by deterministic finality, in regulated credit markets where probabilistic settlement creates unacceptable risk, XDC offers the certainty that transactions are irreversible within seconds. Finally, the network provides strict cost predictability.

For a high-volume issuer like Liqi managing hundreds of credit notes, the ability to forecast gas fees to the fraction of a cent is not merely a feature, it is a fundamental requirement for protecting operational margins.

Diego Consimo, Head of LATAM at XDC Network, puts it bluntly:

“Our partnership with Liqi highlights the strategic role of the XDC Network in delivering institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure for real-world asset issuance. Seeing issuance volumes grow at this pace reinforces our mission to transform how institutions in Brazil and Latin America access cutting-edge technology with security, efficiency, and full alignment with international standards.”

The Shift from Pilots to Scale in Emerging Markets

The Liqi-XDC success story highlights a broader trend, emerging markets are leapfrogging the West in blockchain adoption. Much like mobile payments bypassed traditional credit cards in many parts of the world, tokenization is bypassing the fragmented and slow settlement systems of traditional capital markets in LATAM.

For emerging markets, the RWA value proposition is two-fold. It democratizes access to institutional-grade yields for smaller investors and allows local companies to bypass expensive domestic banking by tapping into global on-chain liquidity.

As Liqi and XDC approach their US$ 500 million target, they are effectively building a liquidity bridge that connects Brazilian credit to international capital. This success serves as more than a local milestone; it establishes a replicable blueprint for financial modernization across Indonesia, India, and Africa.

The Institutional Requirements

The institutional world operates on a vastly different playbook than the permissionless DeFi sector. For an asset manager to deploy capital at scale, the infrastructure must prioritize accountability over anonymity, requiring Identity and KYC verification for all participants, full auditability for regulatory oversight, and recoverability mechanisms to address defaults or lost access. In this context, compliance safeguards are not optional add-ons; they are the fundamental prerequisites for moving millions on-chain.

The collaboration between Liqi and XDC succeeds because it addresses these unsexy requirements head-on. It combines the agility of a fintech leader with the industrial strength of a blockchain built for trade finance.

The Structural Shift is Permanent

As we look toward the remainder of 2026, the narrative around RWAs will likely center on interoperability. With the US$ 500 million milestone in sight, the next challenge will be connecting these tokenized Brazilian assets to global DeFi protocols and institutional liquidity pools in London, New York, and Singapore.

The work being done by Liqi and XDC suggests that the great tokenization is no longer a theory. It is happening in the credit markets of Sao Paulo and the digital ledgers of the XDC Network.

Conclusion

Tokenization is not a trend, it is a structural upgrade to the global financial system. Brazil has shown the world that with the right regulatory climate and the right technical infrastructure, the benefits of blockchain can be harvested today, not in some distant future.

The US$ 100 million milestone is a victory of pragmatism over hype. It proves that when you focus on utility, cost-efficiency, and institutional standards, the market will follow. For the XDC Network and Liqi, the path to $500 million is not just about growth; it’s about defining the new standard for how the world’s wealth is moved, managed, and measured.

January 2026 marked a watershed moment for stablecoins, with total on-chain transaction volume surpassing $10 trillion in a single month. USDC dominated that surge, processing more than $8.4 trillion in payments, far outpacing rivals and exceeding the combined monthly payment volumes of Visa and Mastercard.

Yet despite this explosive growth, Circle, the issuer of USDC, continues to face a sharp disconnect between on-chain reality and market valuation.

USDC Hits $8.4 Trillion in January Transactions as Circle Stock Slides 80%

According to Artemis data, January’s stablecoin activity represented one of the strongest signals yet that digital dollars are moving beyond niche crypto use cases and into mainstream financial infrastructure.

Circle’s marketer, Peter Schroeder, noted that stablecoin transaction volume crossed $10 trillion in January alone, with USDC accounting for the vast majority of flows ($8.4 trillion).

By comparison, Visa and Mastercard together typically process around $2 trillion in monthly payments. Investors, however, appear unconvinced. Circle’s stock is down roughly 80% from its peak just seven months ago, a divergence that has sparked intense debate among analysts and market participants.

Circle (CRCL) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

Equity fund executive Dan Tapiero pointed out that while stablecoins saw $33 trillion in total volume in 2025 and $10 trillion in January alone, Circle’s equity continues to price in failure rather than scale.

“USDC was $8T of that… in one month,” Tapiero said, arguing that the total addressable market (TAM) for stablecoins could exceed $1,000 trillion over time.

Others echo the view that the market is misclassifying Circle’s role, arguing that investors still treat it as a fintech company rather than as core financial infrastructure.

If this framing is true, then it understates the strategic importance of regulated digital dollars in payments, treasury operations, foreign exchange, and capital markets.

Regulatory Clarity Fuels USDC’s Rise as Markets Miss the Signal

Circle itself has leaned into this narrative, stating that stablecoins are now operating globally at scale following the convergence of regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and on-chain technology.

The disconnect between usage and valuation mirrors a broader crypto pattern, with analysts noting that January’s $10 trillion stablecoin volume annualizes to roughly $120 trillion—nearly 40 times the entire crypto market capitalization of around $3 trillion.

In that context, stablecoins increasingly look like the most successful real-world crypto product, even as associated assets struggle to reflect that reality.

Meanwhile, regulation remains a key differentiator for Circle’s stablecoin. USDC’s dominance is widely attributed to Circle’s compliance-first approach, which has helped it gain traction with institutions amid global scrutiny of digital assets.

Artemis data shows stablecoin usage has expanded from roughly $1 trillion in early 2023 to record levels today, with USDC widening its lead over USDT in several activity metrics.

Stablecoin Metrics Comparing USDT and USDC. Source: Artemis

At the same time, liquidity continues to build. Total stablecoin supply is approaching an all-time high near $310 billion, leading some analysts to describe the market as sitting on more than $300 billion in deployable “dry powder.”

That represents latent demand waiting for clearer macro signals and regulatory certainty.

Physical violence targeting cryptocurrency holders escalated sharply in 2025, with wrench attacks surging 75% year over year, according to blockchain security firm CertiK.

This rise marks a critical inflection point in crypto security, where technical safeguards are no longer sufficient against real-world violence.

From Code to Coercion: Wrench Attacks Expose Crypto’s Human Security Gap

A wrench attack is a form of theft in which attackers use physical force or threats to coerce someone into handing over crypto private keys or passwords, bypassing all technical security measures. It targets the person, not the technology.

CertiK noted that while these types of attacks were once regarded as an “edge-case risk,” they have transformed into “a structural threat to digital asset ownership.”

“2025 is officially the most violent year in the history of cryptocurrency,” the firm wrote.

In its Skynet Wrench Attacks Report, CertiK revealed that verified physical coercion incidents rose sharply in 2025, increasing to 72 cases worldwide from 41 in 2024. This marked a 75% year-over-year increase.

The trend accelerated early in the year. The first quarter of 2025 alone accounted for 21 incidents. Although the second quarter saw a slight slowdown with 16 cases, activity picked up again in the second half of the year.

17 incidents were recorded in Q3 and 18 in Q4. May 2025 stood out as the most violent month, with 10 reported attacks, followed by January 2025 with 9.

Crypto Wrench Attacks in 2025. Source: CertiK

Kidnapping remained the most common tactic, accounting for 25 incidents in 2025. This represented a 66% increase compared to 2024, when 15 such cases were reported. Physical assaults also surged, rising from four incidents in 2024 to 14 in 2025, a 250% increase.

Losses linked to these attacks have grown alongside their frequency. In 2024, total losses from physical coercion cases were estimated at $28.3 million. In 2025, stolen funds exceeded $40.9 million, marking a 44% increase in value lost.

“Though this figure significantly understates the true impact due to under-reporting, silent settlements, and untraceable ransoms,” the firm stated. “The data indicates that attackers are no longer focused only on whales, but also on individuals with modest holdings, simply because they are known to own crypto.”

Europe Emerges as Epicenter With France Leading Attack Frequency

The report further highlighted that in 2025, Europe accounted for over 40% of global wrench attacks, making it the “most dangerous region” for crypto holders. France led this trend, recording 19 cases, more than any other country.

Physical Attacks on Crypto Holders By Region. Source: CertiK

The data also pointed to a relative decline in North America’s share of wrench attacks. The region accounted for 12.5% of global incidents in 2025, down from 36.6% in 2024. Reported cases fell from 15 to 9.

“This does not necessarily imply that the US is a safer place, but rather that the global volume has expanded elsewhere,” the report stated.

Asia remained a “high-risk” region. Its share of global wrench attacks remained relatively stable, rising slightly from 31.7% in 2024 to 33.3% in 2025.

According to CertiK, the threat in Asia remains heavily concentrated on crypto tourists and expatriates, particularly in hubs such as Thailand and Hong Kong.

“The psychological fallout is perhaps the most damaging long-term effect. The rise in extreme violence has created a climate of fear that is driving high-net-worth individuals into hiding. Founders and early adopters are scrubbing their digital footprints, withdrawing from public events, or relocating to jurisdictions with lower crime rates,” CertiK mentioned.

Several high-profile cases in 2025 highlighted the escalating brutality of wrench attacks. In France, a highly organized transnational crew kidnapped Ledger co-founder David Balland and his wife in January and demanded a €10 million crypto ransom. After a two-day manhunt, authorities rescued both alive and arrested multiple suspects.

In December, the 21-year-old son of a Ukrainian politician, Danylo Kuzmin, was murdered in Vienna after being lured into a trap and tortured for access to his crypto wallets. Attackers stole about $200,000 before killing him. The authorities detained the suspects later.

In the UAE, crypto entrepreneur Roman Novak and his wife were killed after being ambushed during a staged business meeting. The attackers sought access to crypto holdings reportedly worth hundreds of millions, but executed the couple when the wallets failed to deliver the expected funds.

These are just some of the many incidents that occurred in 2025. They show that crypto crime has moved far beyond online theft. Physical violence, including torture, ambushes, and even murder, is now being used to target digital asset holders.

How Crypto Holders Can Reduce Real-World Risks Amid Rising Wrench Attacks

CertiK warned that wrench attacks are likely to become more sophisticated, shifting from purely physical coercion to psychologically driven and highly scalable threats.

The firm expects attackers to increasingly use deepfake extortion and AI-powered social engineering. This includes fake video calls and mass-produced honeypot schemes designed to pressure victims.

To reduce risk, CertiK recommends that individuals focus on minimizing their visibility and exposure. This includes avoiding sharing wallet addresses, portfolio screenshots, travel plans, or routine details linked to crypto activity. The firm also added that users could maintain decoy wallets alongside secure primary vaults.

“Never co-locate seed material and signing devices; avoid keeping recovery material at home. Use a travel phone with minimal accounts, disable lock-screen previews, and keep high-value wallets off daily devices,” CertiK said.

For institutions, CertiK emphasizes structural protections. These include adopting multi-signature or MPC systems with withdrawal limits and delays, adding friction to large transactions, and formalizing executive security and travel protocols.

The firm also urges companies to extend security training beyond executives to include family members, close associates, and employees. They are increasingly being targeted as proxy victims.

Bitcoin has faced renewed selling pressure, with the price slipping below the $80,000 mark after a sharp pullback. The decline followed broader market weakness and rising risk aversion. 

Although large wallet holders reacted defensively, several underlying bullish signals suggest Bitcoin may be positioning for a short-term recovery as selling pressure shows early signs of saturation.

Bitcoin Large Holders Exit

On-chain data indicates notable risk reduction among large Bitcoin holders throughout January. Wallets holding balances exceeding $100,000 and $1 million in BTC collectively declined by approximately 166,000 addresses over a two-week period. These cohorts typically represent institutional participants and high-net-worth investors, whose positioning often has an outsized impact on liquidity and directional price action.

Such distribution phases tend to exacerbate downside volatility, as the withdrawal of large holders reduces passive buy-side support. However, history shows that these periods frequently coincide with late-stage corrections, where leveraged or weak hands are flushed out while longer-term participants gradually absorb supply.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin Addresses With Balance More Than $1 Million. Source: Glassnode What Does Bitcoin’s Past Say?

Market sentiment remains decisively bearish across both social and quantitative indicators. Data from Santiment shows bearish crypto commentary has surged to its highest level since the November 21 market crash, reflecting elevated fear and capitulation among retail participants.

From a contrarian perspective, sentiment compression at these extremes has historically aligned with local market troughs. Prior cycles suggest that when pessimism becomes one-sided, marginal sellers diminish, allowing price to stabilize and rebound—provided macro conditions and liquidity do not deteriorate further. This environment increases the probability of a tactical bounce rather than a continued impulsive downside.

Bitcoin FUD Marks a Local Bottom. Source: Santiment BTC Price Could Bounce Back

Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,848 after rebounding from the $75,000 demand zone, which marked a recent swing low and attracted aggressive spot buying. While the broader structure remains corrective, momentum metrics indicate that downside pressure is decelerating, creating a more constructive short-term setup.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

On lower timeframes, BTC is developing a bullish divergence, with CMF printing lower highs while price posted marginally lower lows. This divergence typically signals improving bid strength beneath the surface as capital inflows strengthen and often precedes relief rallies during downtrends.

If confirmed, Bitcoin could reclaim the $80,000 level, which now acts as immediate overhead resistance. A sustained acceptance above this zone would likely open upside continuation toward $84,698. A successful flip of this level into support would materially improve market structure and increase the probability of a broader recovery toward $89,241, aligning with prior consolidation and volume nodes.

Bitcoin CMF Divergence. Source: TradingView

That said, downside risk remains intact should bearish sentiment intensify. A loss of the $75,000 support—previously defended during the April 2025 crash—would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis. This would expose BTC to deeper downside toward the $70,000 region or lower. For now, price action suggests Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point between further distribution and a potential corrective rebound.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token soared over 20% to lead cryptocurrency gainers, as the HyperCore team announced support for HIP-4, a proposal to introduce “outcome” trading.

This development marks a strategic move for the decentralized perpetual futures platform, aiming to capture a share in one of the fastest-growing sectors.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Proposal Sends HYPE to 2-Month High

Market data showed that HYPE surged 22.39% over the past day, outperforming the broader market’s 3.6% gain over the same period. This made it the top gainer among the 100 largest cryptocurrencies on CoinGecko.

At press time, HYPE was trading at $37, marking its highest price since late November 2025. Its trading volume also surged by more than 36% to around $1 billion.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

The price rally comes amid the latest network developments. The HyperCore team confirmed its support for HIP-4 on February 2. HIP-4 introduces outcome trading, a new type of contract designed to be fully collateralized and to settle within fixed ranges.

This structure allows for a variety of use cases, including prediction markets and bounded options-style instruments. It’s worth noting that while outcome trading closely overlaps with prediction markets, the two are not synonymous.

Prediction markets are a specific form of outcome trading in which participants trade contracts tied to future events, with prices reflecting the implied probability of each outcome.

Outcome trading is a broader concept that encompasses prediction markets alongside other event-based instruments, such as bounded options or structured outcome contracts. In short, all prediction markets fall under outcome trading, but not all outcome trading constitutes prediction markets

“There has been extensive user demand in both of these areas, and builders will likely think of novel applications as well,” the team wrote.

In contrast to traditional derivatives, outcome-based contracts do not use leverage or liquidation mechanisms. Instead, they introduce non-linear payoffs and dated contracts. According to the team,

“The outcome primitive expands the expressivity of HyperCore, while composing with other primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM.”

The HIP-4 outcome trading feature is currently live on testnet. Once technical work is finalized, the protocol plans to launch canonical markets that rely on objective settlement sources.

Canonical markets will use USDH, Hyperliquid’s native stablecoin. The team added that, depending on user feedback, the infrastructure could later be opened to permissionless market deployment.

The latest move follows growing traction after the platform’s HIP-3 deployment. Activity across externally deployed markets has continued to expand, with open interest surging to an all-time high of over $1 billion on January 29. At press time, open interest stood at $929.4 million.

Prediction Markets Achieve Record Growth

Meanwhile, prediction markets are emerging as a rapidly expanding sector, attracting major players looking to capitalize on growing momentum. Coinbase recently launched prediction markets for all US users through a partnership with CFTC-regulated Kalshi, signaling increasing mainstream adoption.

Interest in the sector has risen alongside higher activity across these platforms. According to data from Dune, monthly trading volume reached an all-time high of $12.4 billion in January 2026, led by Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion.

Just three days into February, volume has already reached $1 billion, highlighting the sector’s strong growth trajectory.

Prediction Market Monthly Volume. Source: Dune

Overall, Hyperliquid’s support for HIP-4 expands the protocol’s capabilities beyond traditional perpetual futures, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for outcome-based trading products. As prediction markets gain traction as one application of this broader framework, the successful execution of HIP-4 could drive further adoption across the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

Bitcoin’s sharp late-January sell-off has intensified debate over whether the market is approaching a cyclical bottom—or merely entering the next leg lower.

According to Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, recent price action suggests downside risks remain elevated, with Bitcoin potentially drifting toward long-term technical support levels in the weeks or months ahead.

Galaxy Digital Warns Bitcoin Could Drift Toward Long-Term Support Near $58,000

In a research note sent to Galaxy clients, Thorn said the Bitcoin price is likely to drift lower, towards $70,000, then potentially down to the 200w MA (approximately $60,000) over the next weeks or months.

“…historically, those levels have been strong entry points for long-term investors,” wrote Thorn.

Bitcoin fell roughly 15% between January 28 and January 31, with a 10% drop on Saturday alone triggering more than $2 billion in long liquidations across derivatives venues. Notably, this was one of the largest liquidation events on record.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Prices briefly slipped as low as $75,644 on the Coinbase exchange, pushing Bitcoin nearly 10% below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at around $84,000.

At one point, BTC also dipped below Strategy’s average purchase price near $76,000 and approached its April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum” low.

The drawdown has left a growing share of investors underwater. Thorn noted that roughly 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a loss, a level historically associated with late-stage bear markets.

On-chain data also reveals a thin ownership zone between $70,000 and $80,000, an area Thorn says could increase the likelihood of further downside as demand is tested.

“On-chain data, weakness at key price levels, macro uncertainty, and a lack of near-term catalysts suggest BTC will trade lower towards the 200-week moving average over the next weeks or months,” Thorn wrote in a follow-up post.

He added that the realized price, currently near $56,000, and the 200-week moving average around $58,000 have historically converged near cycle bottoms.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView Bitcoin’s Macro Narrative Weakens as Gold Leads, but Rotation Hopes Emerge

Macro dynamics are also weighing on sentiment. Bitcoin has failed to rally alongside gold and silver amid heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty. This undermines its narrative as a debasement hedge.

As commodities attracted safe-haven flows, Bitcoin instead lagged, an unusual divergence that Thorn says has “worked against” the asset’s narrative.

Still, not all signals point decisively lower. While whale accumulation remains muted, long-term holder profit-taking, which averaged roughly $500 million per day through 2025, has begun to abate. Historically, a slowdown in long-term holder selling has coincided with market bottoms.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Profit. Source: Alex Thorne on X

Meanwhile, some market watchers see potential parallels with 2020. Bull Theory pointed to August of that year, when gold topped before capital rotated into risk assets, fueling Bitcoin’s explosive rally into 2021.

With the ISM index again above 50, signaling economic expansion, and gold recently pulling back sharply, the firm argued that “we could now see a rotation into risk-on assets over the coming months.”

While Galaxy Digital sees limited evidence of a definitive bottom, the firm argues that if Bitcoin revisits its realized price or 200-week moving average, those levels could once again act as a long-term safety net—just as they have in past cycles.

Bitcoin got off to a rough start in February as negative sentiment persisted and market liquidity weakened. However, the latest data suggests that selling pressure is gradually easing, while early signs of recovery are emerging.

These signs are not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal, but they remain some of the few positive signals in this phase.

3 Reasons Bitcoin Could Soon Recover From Below $80,000

A recent report from BeInCrypto noted that crypto funds saw $1.7 billion in outflows last week. This reversed year-to-date inflows into net losses.

Still, early indicators suggest that selling pressure may be fading. This is evident in the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is recovering, even though it remains negative. This is an early signal that buying demand from the United States via Coinbase is slowly returning. Historically, this often points to a reversal once the premium moves from negative to positive.

“Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is recovering. April 2025 lows have been taken. Not calling for a mega rally, but things are looking good for a relief rally,” investor Ted predicted.

Another signal that has been interpreted pessimistically is that Bitcoin is currently trading below the average cost basis of all US Bitcoin ETF funds. CryptoQuant data places this level at around $79,000.

Bitcoin US ETF Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant.

However, historical trends since the approval of US Bitcoin ETFs show that Bitcoin rarely stays below this cost level for long.

History suggests that this zone often acts as demand support before a strong rebound. Institutional investors and long-term holders typically have little incentive to sell at a loss below their cost basis.

The chart shows that during the most bearish phase in Q3 2024, Bitcoin tested this level multiple times. Each time, the price recovered within one to two weeks.

“If you missed the sub-$80k boat, it just came back to pick you up. You’re now buying Bitcoin cheaper than the average price of every US ETF combined. Wall Street is down 10% on their entry, while you’re just getting started. Max pain for them = Max opportunity for you. Don’t overthink the dip,” analyst Whale Factor commented.

While many analysts continue to highlight negative signals, Swissblock — a Switzerland-based crypto analytics and investment firm — noted a positive convergence between network growth and liquidity that emerged in early February.

Bitcoin Network Growth vs Liquidity. Source: Swissblock

Swissblock noted that the last time network growth and liquidity recovered together from low levels was in 2021, just before Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. This suggests that another recovery phase could be approaching.

“Sustained growth in these indicators could be the catalyst for one last push,” Swissblock predicted.

Overall, these signs suggest that Bitcoin may not remain below $80,000 for long and could soon climb back above this level.

However, not all outlooks are optimistic. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, warned that Bitcoin’s recent weakness could persist. The price could even fall further toward the 200-week moving average, near $58,000, in the coming weeks or months. The main drivers include declining liquidity and the lack of positive short-term catalysts.

These differing perspectives provide a broader view of the forces shaping the market. They may also help traders reduce risk while attempting to capture potential opportunities.