Market context: Price: ~0.245 Whales long/short ratio: ~177% (strong long dominance) Majority of whales in profit → trend-following continuation likely, but volatility high after +125% Long Setup (Primary) Entry (pullback): 0.225 – 0.235 Stop Loss: 0.205 Take Profit 1: 0.265 Take Profit 2: 0.295 Take Profit 3 (stretch): 0.330 Leverage: Low–moderate (3x–5x) Long Setup (Breakout) Entry: Confirmed hold above 0.255 (15m close) Stop Loss: 0.235 Take Profit: 0.285 / 0.310 Short Setup (Only if reversal) Condition: Clear rejection + 15m close below 0.215 Entry: 0.210 – 0.215 Stop Loss: 0.235 Take Profit: 0.185 Note: Counter-trend → higher risk Risk Notes After big pumps, expect sharp pullbacks. Watch whale net buy volume: if it flips negative, tighten SL. Scale out profits; don’t go all-in on one level
The 15M chart shows bullish bias but slowing momentum. RSI is elevated but not extreme, suggesting consolidation or a shallow pullback before the next move. The Pullback Buy remains the most methodical setup with clean risk/reward. The Breakout Scalping is valid if volume surges through 0.39500. The Countertrend Short is opportunistic but risky against the prevailing trend.
The 15M chart shows strong bullish momentum but slowing MACD and high RSI. The Pullback Buy remains the most methodical setup with clean risk/reward. The Breakout Scalping is valid if volume surges through 0.39500–0.39600. The Countertrend Short is opportunistic but risky against the prevailing trend.
Market context: Price: ~0.245 Whales long/short ratio: ~177% (strong long dominance) Majority of whales in profit → trend-following continuation likely, but volatility high after +125% Long Setup (Primary) Entry (pullback): 0.225 – 0.235 Stop Loss: 0.205 Take Profit 1: 0.265 Take Profit 2: 0.295 Take Profit 3 (stretch): 0.330 Leverage: Low–moderate (3x–5x) Long Setup (Breakout) Entry: Confirmed hold above 0.255 (15m close) Stop Loss: 0.235 Take Profit: 0.285 / 0.310 Short Setup (Only if reversal) Condition: Clear rejection + 15m close below 0.215 Entry: 0.210 – 0.215 Stop Loss: 0.235 Take Profit: 0.185 Note: Counter-trend → higher risk Risk Notes After big pumps, expect sharp pullbacks. Watch whale net buy volume: if it flips negative, tighten SL. Scale out profits; don’t go all-in on one level
Price is at 0.18959, sliding lower with EMAs (7, 25, 99) stacked above price → strong short-term bearish bias. Momentum Indicators: RSI(6) = 11.5 → Extremely oversold, sellers may be exhausted. MACD Line = -0.00788 vs Signal = -0.00817 → Bearish, but histogram (-0.00029) shows momentum flattening.
Key Levels: Immediate Support: 0.18900 (recent low). Resistance: 0.19336 (EMA7), then 0.20414 (EMA25). Major Resistance: 0.22720 (EMA99). Historical High: 0.32317.
Short on Rejection: Entry: 0.193–0.195 (EMA7 zone). Target: 0.189 (support retest). Stop: Above 0.198. Risk/Reward ≈ 1:1.5.
Breakout Play (Safer):
Entry: On confirmed 15M close above 0.193. Target: 0.204 (EMA25). Stop: Below 0.190. Risk/Reward ≈ 1:2.
📌 Summary:
The 15M chart is extremely oversold, so a quick bounce is possible. Aggressive scalpers can long near support, while conservative traders may wait for EMA7 reclaim. Shorts remain valid if price rejects at EMA7.
Above 31.50 → invalidates bearish continuation, signals possible breakout.
Strategic Take
Trend is still bearish across 15M, 4H, and 1D. Shorts remain the higher-probability play, especially on retests of 29–31 USDT. If 25.1 breaks, expect continuation toward 23–22 USDT. Longs only make sense as tactical scalps at oversold zones, but shorts align with the dominant trend.
👉 In essence: safer to wait for price to retest 28.8–30.0 USDT and enter short with stops above 31.5.
The 15M chart shows fading momentum but still bullish bias. The Support Bounce offers the cleanest risk/reward with manageable downside, while the Scalp Continuation is viable if momentum reignites. The Fade Reversal is riskier but could pay if RSI rolls over.
Shorts remain the higher-probability play since the trend is bearish. Longs are only tactical scalps at oversold zones (26–27 USDT). Macro recovery requires reclaiming 29–31 USDT first, then 42–43 USDT.
👉 In essence: safer to lean short, but if you enter long at oversold zones, keep stops tight and treat it as a scalp.
High volatility: RIVER is thinly traded, so spikes can hit stops quickly. Oversold RSI: Suggests a possible short-term bounce, but trend is still bearish. Best practice: Use small position size and consider scaling in/out.
✅ Tactical Recommendation
Since you prefer side-by-side breakdowns and leverage simulations, I’d suggest:
Run both setups in parallel with paper trading first. If you’re confident in the bearish continuation, lean heavier on Option A. If you want to catch a quick bounce, keep Option B small and tight.
25.1 USDT → current daily low and critical support. If this fails, sellers will push into deeper liquidity zones.
🛡️ Next Support Zones
23.0 USDT → first strong demand pocket, aligns with oversold RSI zones. 22.0 USDT → secondary support, psychological round number, often defended by buyers.
⚓ Macro Floor
15.9 USDT (EMA99 on 1D) → long-term structural support. This is the “last line” where long-term buyers would likely defend if panic selling continues.
🧠 Strategic Take
If 25.1 holds → bounce trades possible back to 29–30. If 25.1 breaks → expect continuation toward 23–22 USDT. If 22 fails → macro reset toward 15.9 USDT.
🔍 Market Snapshot Current Price: 27.61 USDT 24h Change: 🔻 -25.22% (strong dump) 🐋 Whales Overview (Big Money Positioning) Total Whales: 234 Total Whale Positions: 28.04M USDT (very large exposure) ⚖️ Long vs Short Balance Notional Long/Short Ratio: 164.43% 👉 More money is in longs, but that’s not necessarily bullish here. 🟢 Long Whales (Buy Positions) 142 whales Position Size: 17.44M USDT Average Entry: 38.39 USDT Current Price: 27.61 ❌ Unrealized PnL: –6.80M USDT Only 16.9% are profitable 📌 Meaning: Most long whales bought much higher and are now deeply underwater. These are trapped longs. 🔴 Short Whales (Sell Positions) 92 whales Position Size: 10.60M USDT Average Entry: 46.59 USDT Unrealized PnL: +7.28M USDT 82.6% are profitable 📌 Meaning: Short whales positioned early and are now in strong profit. They currently control the market. 🧠 Key Insight (Very Important) Long whales = losing heavily Short whales = winning heavily Price is far below long whales’ average entry 👉 This usually means bearish control is still active. 📉 What Can Happen Next? 🔻 Scenario 1: Further Dump (More likely) Long whales may capitulate Forced liquidations can push price lower Trend continuation down 🔄 Scenario 2: Short-Covering Bounce Shorts take profit Quick relief pump possible Likely a temporary bounce, not trend reversal ⚠️ Retail Trader Advice ❌ Don’t blindly go long here ❌ Don’t try to catch the falling knife ✅ Wait for: Strong volume confirmation Open Interest behavior Clear support + reversal structure