Dom Nguyen - Dom Trading

🚨 IF YOU’RE 18-30, THIS WINDOW DESERVES YOUR ATTENTION

The next 4-12 months could be one of those periods people look back on and say, “That was the moment.” Markets don’t usually top slowly. They tend to run hard, feel exciting, and only break after most people are convinced it will keep going.

This is where wealth tends to shift hands. Not because everyone suddenly gets smarter, but because many hesitate. They wait to feel comfortable, assume they’re already too late, or simply watch while others take action. By the time things feel obvious, the opportunity has usually passed.

If you’re between 18 and 30, you don’t need to get everything right for decades. You often just need one well-timed cycle. This window is still open, but it won’t stay that way forever. Paying attention now can make a difference later.

🚨 BITCOIN JUST DID SOMETHING IT RARELY DOES

Let me say this calmly, because the chart is already loud enough.
Bitcoin just printed a bullish cross on a long-term indicator —
the kind that doesn’t show up often, and never shows up by accident.

The last three times this happened, Bitcoin didn’t creep higher.
It changed pace completely.

Here’s what followed:
2012 → ~$15 → ~$1,000
2016 → ~$400 → ~$20,000
2020 → ~$9,000 → ~$69,000
Back then, it didn’t feel obvious either.
It felt slow. Uncertain. Boring.

People said:
“It’s already up too much”
“This cycle is different”
“I’ll wait for confirmation”
Bitcoin didn’t wait.
What matters here isn’t the indicator itself.
It’s what it usually marks.

These crosses tend to show up when:
long-term momentum quietly flips
liquidity starts leaking back in
most people are still unconvinced
Not at tops. Not during euphoria.
Right now, we’re still debating.
Still cautious. Still skeptical.

Historically, that’s the phase right before Bitcoin stops being patient.
This doesn’t mean straight up tomorrow.
It means the risk-reward just shifted.
Moves like this don’t announce themselves twice.
Just… don’t ignore it.

🚨 THE SYSTEM IS BREAKING AND DENIAL IS THE LAST STAGE

The government is shutting down.
The U.S. dollar is starting to crack.
Not because of a “temporary issue” but because they’ve lost control of the economy.
They’ll keep saying it’s “under control.”
But people aren’t buying that story anymore.
You can repeat the same narrative only so long…
until reality forces a reset.
And when that moment hits, the damage is always worse than if the truth had come out earlier.

THE WARNING SIGNS LOOK EXACTLY LIKE 2008:
→ The Fed’s emergency repo usage just surged.
Banks don’t trust each other enough to lend.
This is the same liquidity freeze we saw before Lehman collapsed.
→ The S&P 500 / Gold ratio just broke major support.
Last time this happened?
Right before the 2008 crash.
→ The Sahm Rule has been hovering dangerously close to triggering since late 2025.
And the hard data keeps getting worse:
– $800B+ in commercial real estate debt matures this year.
Many properties are worth ~40% less than what’s owed.
– Business bankruptcies up nearly 12% YoY.
Mid-sized companies are slamming into a refinancing wall.
– Credit card delinquencies are back to 2011 levels,
while household debt sits near $18.5T.
But the real shock is bigger than the U.S.

DE-DOLLARIZATION IS ACCELERATING.
More than 90% of trade between Russia, China, and India now happens without USD.
With $1T+ per year in interest payments, the U.S. has only two paths:
→ Inflate the debt away
→ Let the system break
There is no third option.
There is no exit plan.
I’m not here to scare you.
I’m here so you’re not the last one holding the bag.
This is how generational wealth shifts.
Follow and turn on notifications or become exit liquidity later.
Most people will ignore this.
They always do.

🚨 THIS IS THE DAY THE SYSTEM CRACKS 2026’S REAL BLACK SWAN STARTS TOMORROW

Tomorrow, the Supreme Court rules on Trump’s tariffs.
There is a 76% probability the tariffs are declared ILLEGAL.
Some people are calling this bullish.
That alone tells me how dangerously mispriced this market is.

THIS IS NOT BULLISH.
THIS IS A MACRO TRAP.

The mistake everyone is making is focusing on the ruling itself.
What matters is what explodes immediately after.

HERE’S WHAT THE MARKET IS REFUSING TO PRICE IN:
Trump has already stated the retaliation and payback could reach HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS.
Once you account for investment damage, contract terminations, legal claims, and trade dislocation, the number doesn’t stop at billions.

It moves into the TRILLIONS.
If the Court nukes the tariffs, it instantly rips a massive revenue hole straight through the US Treasury.
That is not a political headline.
That is a FISCAL SHOCK EVENT.
Refund battles begin overnight.
Emergency debt issuance follows.
Counter-tariff retaliation risk spikes.
Funding markets tighten all at once.
The market is not pricing any of this.
And when reality finally hits, liquidity doesn’t rotate.

IT DISAPPEARS.
Bonds get sold.
Equities get sold.
Crypto gets sold.
Everything becomes exit liquidity — simultaneously.
This is how systemic stress actually starts.
Quiet at first. Then violent. Then everywhere.
I’m not here to scare you.

I’m here because I’ve seen this pattern repeat.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years.
I’ve called nearly every major market top including the October BTC ATH. You don’t have to agree with me.
But if you think tomorrow is bullish,
you’re not trading macro you’re gambling against it.
Be careful.

🚨 BITCOIN ISN’T “CONSOLIDATING” IT’S BEING HELD DOWN
Look at BTC.

Stuck between $85K–$95K.
Now look around.
Stocks ripping. Commodities ripping. New ATHs everywhere.
And BTC? Flat.
You really think that’s natural?
Here’s what’s actually going on no hype, no buzzwords.
This range breaks on JANUARY 30.

BTC is pinned inside a huge options gamma wall.
The Jan 30 expiry has almost 2× the open interest of any other date.
Market makers are long gamma here.

In plain English:
– When price goes up, they sell
– When price goes down, they buy
So every breakout fails.
Every dip gets caught.
Price feels weirdly calm and frustrating.
That’s not because buyers disappeared.
It’s because the tape is being managed.

Here’s the part most people miss:
THIS WEAKNESS IS TEMPORARY.
As we get closer to Jan 30, that gamma pressure fades.
When the options expire, the hedges disappear.

The market goes from:
controlled → free
And when that much gamma comes off at once,
price usually doesn’t move slowly.
It moves fast.
In one direction.
When nobody is ready.
I’ve been doing this for 10+ years.
I’ve seen this setup more times than I can count.
When I make my next move,
I’ll post it here first.
No drama.
No hype.
Just price.

🚨 THIS ISN’T A MARKET MOVE IT’S A COVER-UP

1) Let’s stop pretending. This wasn’t volatility, not macro, not “price discovery.” In just a few hours, +$1.6T was shoved into Gold & Silver. Markets don’t move like that because of a headline. They move like that when someone is in trouble.

2) Here’s the uncomfortable truth: big banks JPMorgan included are stuck in massive silver shorts. If silver is allowed to trade at a real equilibrium price, it’s not a bad quarter… it’s margin calls, risk limits blown, and counterparties panicking. That’s when the system steps in.

3) So the playbook gets used. Paper supply is dumped, algos flip to sell, funds are forced to liquidate, and price free-falls through thin liquidity. Then quietly the same players buy back the bottom they just created. It looks like chaos. It isn’t. It’s controlled damage.

4) And this is where the lie falls apart. While the paper price got crushed, the physical market didn’t even react. No metal showed up. No inventories loosened. Premiums stayed high. Real prices still say China $141, Japan $135, Middle East $128. At those “dip” prices on the screen, there is no silver to buy.

5) That’s the tell. Screens say abundance, reality says scarcity. Both can’t be right. And when that gap snaps shut, it won’t feel like a normal move it’ll feel like the system losing control, and a lot of people realizing too late that this was never “just a correction.”

🚨 SOMETHING FEELS OFF IN THE MARKETS — AND IT’S NOT JUST VOLATILITY

Let me put this in a simple way.

In just a few days:
Japan’s 30-year bond saw a 6-sigma move
Silver followed with a 5-sigma surge, then a 6-sigma drop in a single session
That’s not normal market behavior.
It’s a sign of stress building inside the system.

To give this some context:
A 6-sigma event is the kind of move that, statistically,
should almost never happen.
Historically, it only shows up around moments like:
the 1987 crash
the 2008 financial crisis
the Covid shock in 2020
Those weren’t about headlines.
They were about the system struggling to absorb pressure.

What matters here isn’t the news.
It’s the mechanics.
Moves like this usually come from:
too much leverage
forced margin calls
collateral issues
investors being pushed to buy or sell, not choosing to
That’s the plumbing starting to strain.
And the assets involved matter.

Japan’s bond market is a core pillar of global finance.
Silver is a small, highly financialized market and a form of monetary insurance. Seeing extreme moves in both, so close together,
suggests stress isn’t isolated — it’s spreading.
This doesn’t mean panic tomorrow.
But it does mean the environment is changing.
Markets don’t always break loudly.
Sometimes they give subtle warnings first.
Gold and silver aren’t just moving.
They’re signaling. And those signals usually show up before the crowd realizes something has shifted.

🚨 COPPER IS BEING MISREAD AND THAT’S WHY IT MATTERS

Let me strip the hype out and say this plainly.
Copper doesn’t look exciting right now.
That’s exactly why it’s being ignored.
But if copper ever trades at its real economic value, it won’t feel like a clever trade in hindsight it’ll feel obvious.
Bernstein expects a structural shortage starting around 2027,
and getting tighter into 2050.

That’s not a cycle you wait out.
That’s a supply problem that takes decades to fix.

Why this feels different:
There’s no quick supply response.
New copper mines take 17–20 years to permit and build.
Even a major discovery today won’t help until the 2040s.

Meanwhile:
Ore grades keep falling
The easy copper is gone
We’re digging more to get less
S&P Global estimates a ~10 million tonne annual deficit by 2040 roughly a quarter of global demand that simply isn’t there.

Demand isn’t just growing it’s changing:
This isn’t only about EVs.
AI needs power.
Power needs copper.
Data centers are scaling fast, grids need upgrading,
and none of that works without a lot of copper wiring and cooling.
This demand isn’t optional.
It’s built into how the system is evolving.
Add the energy transition:
EVs use about 3× more copper than gas cars.
Wind and solar soak it up.
Entire grids are being rebuilt at the same time.
We’re trying to remake global infrastructure
with copper that hasn’t been mined yet.

What that usually leads to:
When supply can’t respond and demand won’t slow,
price stops being about efficiency.
Copper turns strategic.
Companies don’t argue over price they secure supply just to keep operating.
That’s when sentiment flips. Right now, copper feels quiet. Unloved. Almost boring.
Historically, that’s how big repricings begin not with excitement, but with neglect. You don’t have to chase it. Just don’t dismiss it.
Those are usually the most expensive words later on.

🚨 SILVER MONTHLY RSI AT 94 THIS IS WHERE THINGS USUALLY GET UNCOMFORTABLE

Silver’s monthly RSI is sitting at 94.
That’s not a normal momentum reading.
That’s an extreme.

If you look back at history, every time silver’s monthly RSI moved:
above 80, and especially
above 90
the outcome was broadly the same.
What the chart tends to do at these levels:
You get a sharp, almost vertical rise followed by a fast and deep decline.

The classic “Eiffel Tower” structure.
Not a gentle pullback.
Not a long consolidation.
A quick reset.

Why the macro backdrop matters here:
This kind of technical extreme is far more fragile when:
economic momentum is slowing credit conditions are tightening liquidity is not expanding
That’s the environment we’re moving into now.
In slowdowns, markets don’t reward excess for long.
They reprice it.
High-beta assets feel that first.

What this means in practice:
Silver can still move higher in the short term.
Blow-off phases often do.
But at levels like this, buying isn’t about value anymore.
It’s about momentum and fear.
That’s when risk quietly shifts from missing upside
to being caught in the reversal.
So yes, silver looks strong on the surface.

But when indicators stretch this far, history suggests caution, not confidence.
Charts don’t care about narratives.
They care about exhaustion.
And exhaustion usually shows up before most people are ready to see it.

🚨 SILVER IS IN A BUBBLE AND THAT’S WHERE PEOPLE GET CONFUSED

Let me say this in a simple, honest way.
Silver could still run to $150 first.
Before we get a scary but likely short pullback that resets sentiment
and sets up the next leg higher.

But let’s be clear:
👉 This is a bubble.
Silver doesn’t trade 200%+ above its 200-week moving average
in a normal bull market.
That’s already extreme.
And in real bubbles, price usually stretches even further 400% or even 500% above the 200 WMA
right before the final top.
That’s where the biggest gains happen.
And that’s also where the biggest mistakes are made.

Here’s the opportunity and the danger:
Yes, there’s still a chance to make very big money
as this phase plays out.
But if you buy the story and forget risk,
the same bubble that makes people rich
will take everything back.
That’s how bubbles always end.
We’ve seen this many times in the last 20 years.
Most people don’t fail because they’re early.

They fail because they fall in love
and don’t know when to step away.
Silver can still go much higher.
Just don’t confuse that
with it being “safe.”
The move rewards calm thinking not belief.

🚨 THIS RATIO IS STARTING TO MAKE PEOPLE UNCOMFORTABLE AND THAT’S USUALLY A TELL

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) is dropping quickly
and looks on track to test a horizontal support level that’s held for 43 years.

Most people aren’t watching it yet.
That’s usually when it matters most.
And honestly, I don’t think it stops there.

Just to ground this in simple math:
If gold moves toward $6,000 and the GSR compresses to around 32 which isn’t extreme by historical standards you’re looking at silver near $190-200. That’s not a wild call.

That’s just what the ratio implies.
Here’s why this feels important.
Gold usually moves first when fear shows up.
Silver moves when people stop hiding
and start positioning.

When the ratio compresses,
it’s a sign capital is shifting from safety
toward leverage.
That’s when silver stops behaving like a quiet metal
and starts behaving like something people wish
they’d paid attention to earlier.
Most of the crowd won’t notice the ratio.

They’ll notice the price later.
Ratios don’t make noise.
They just quietly point to what’s coming.
Have a good start to the week.
This is one of those things worth keeping an eye on
before it becomes obvious.

🚨 THIS FEELS UNCOMFORTABLY FAMILIAR AND THAT’S THE PROBLEM

Let me say this simply.
This doesn’t feel like politics anymore.
It feels like the moment right before something slips.
The U.S. government is days from a shutdown.
Leadership sounds reactive.
Confidence feels forced.
That’s usually when systems crack.

The signs aren’t loud they’re subtle:
Emergency repo usage is rising
Lenders are pulling back.
That’s exactly how 2008 started.
Stocks vs. gold just broke a key level
The last time this happened was right before things unraveled.
Unemployment momentum is creeping up
Not enough to panic just enough to matter.

Under the surface, pressure is building:
Commercial real estate debt is coming due
And a lot of it can’t be refinanced cleanly.
Consumers are falling behind
Credit card and auto loan stress is rising.
Mid-sized businesses are struggling
And they don’t get bailouts.

This isn’t collapse yet.
It’s the quiet part before.
I’m not here to scare you.
I’m here to be honest.
Moments like this don’t feel dramatic in real time.
They feel uneasy.
And unease is usually the first real signal
that something is changing.

🚨 THE FED IS HINTING AT SOMETHING BIG - AND IT’S MAKING PEOPLE UNCOMFORTABLE

Let me put this in a simple, human way.

Markets are starting to whisper a word they haven’t used in a long time:
Plaza. Back in 1985, the dollar had become too strong.
U.S. exports were suffering.
Factories were losing business.
Trade tensions were boiling over.
So the U.S. and its allies stepped in together and did the unthinkable.
They intentionally weakened the dollar.
That agreement the Plaza Accord changed everything.

Over the next few years:
the dollar fell nearly 50%
the yen doubled
asset prices reset globally
Markets didn’t resist.
They followed.
Now fast forward to today.
The U.S. still runs big trade deficits.
Currency imbalances are stretched.
Japan is under pressure again.
And the yen is extremely weak.
Last week, something quiet happened.
The New York Fed checked USD/JPY rates a routine move on the surface, but historically the step taken before intervention.
No announcement.
No press conference.
But markets noticed anyway.

Why this matters:
If the U.S. decides the dollar is too strong again,
the response won’t be loud.
It will be coordinated.
And if that starts, everything priced in dollars feels it.
Gold. Commodities. Global assets.
Not overnight chaos a steady shift that only makes sense in hindsight. History doesn’t repeat perfectly. But when it starts to rhyme like this, markets tend to move first…and explanations come later.

Wow!!! Thanks a ton @Binance Square Official & the Binance Square team for the shoutout and the 1BNB surprise! 🎉 🎉

Means a lot - keeps pushing me to post better content.
Appreciate the support, let's keep building! 💪

🚨 THIS DOESN’T FEEL LIKE A NORMAL CRISIS IT FEELS LIKE CONFIDENCE IS BREAKING

Let me slow this down, because this is important.
I’m not trying to scare you.
But I also can’t pretend this is “just another cycle.”
Gold just hit a new all-time high near $5,097.
Silver ran to $109.81, including a 7% move in a single day.
That kind of move doesn’t come from excitement.
It comes from unease.

What this price action actually feels like:
When gold and silver move this hard,
people aren’t buying because they want upside.
They’re buying because they don’t feel safe holding other things.
That’s what de-risking looks like in real time.
Silver especially tells the story it doesn’t usually move first unless stress is real and spreading.

The physical market is where the fear shows up:
In China, one ounce of physical silver costs over $134.
In Japan, it’s closer to $139.
That gap between paper and physical
isn’t about premiums or logistics anymore.
It’s about trust.
People want something they can hold,
not something that depends on a promise.
Why this gets messy before it gets clearer:
When markets start to wobble,
big players don’t rotate neatly.
They’re forced to sell what they can
to cover losses where they must.

That creates:
sudden drops forced liquidations sharp, confusing moves It often looks like chaos right before the next leg higher.
And here’s the part that feels like a trap:
The Fed doesn’t have an easy choice.

If rates get cut to support stocks,
the dollar weakens and gold moves even higher.
If rates stay high to defend the dollar,
equities and real estate take the hit.
Either way, something breaks.
There isn’t a comfortable path out of this.
This doesn’t feel like “just a recession” anymore.
It feels like a moment where confidence in the system is being tested.

Weeks like this don’t feel dramatic at first.
They feel confusing, tense, and uncomfortable.
They only get labeled after the fact.
I’ll keep sharing what I see as this unfolds not to create fear, but to stay honest about the environment we’re in.

🚨The U.S. Government Shutdown Is Becoming the Base Case

This is bigger than it looks.
The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is rising fast,
and almost no one is paying attention.
Prediction markets now treat a shutdown by January 31
as the base case, not a tail risk.
Budget negotiations are stalled.

DHS funding is stuck.
Deadlines don’t negotiate.
Here’s why this matters:
This is economic risk the market has not priced yet.

Right now:
Prediction markets are flashing red
Traditional markets remain calm
That gap doesn’t persist.
It never does.
Either expectations come down…
or prices adjust.
What’s important is the timing.
When political risk moves from “headline noise” to hard deadlines, markets don’t ease into it.

They reprice suddenly.
The warning signs are already visible.
They’re just not loud yet.
And in markets, the quiet warnings are usually the ones that matter most.

🚨 BITCOIN ISN’T BROKEN - IT’S JUST BEING HELD STILL

If you’ve been staring at the chart wondering why Bitcoin feels stuck between $85k and $95k,
while everything else seems to be moving…
You’re not imagining it.
And it’s not because buyers disappeared.
It’s because Bitcoin is being held in place.
And that hold has an expiration date — 4 days.

What’s really going on (no jargon first):
Bitcoin is caught in a huge options setup.
There’s a massive concentration of options expiring on January 30 far bigger than any other date.
Because of that, market makers are forced into a very specific behavior.

When price starts to rise, they sell.
When price starts to fall, they buy.
Not out of opinion.
Out of obligation.
That’s why:
rallies feel like they hit a wall
dips get bought instantly
It’s not weak demand.
It’s mechanical pressure.

Why this matters so much:
As we get closer to January 30, that pressure slowly fades.
When those options finally expire,
the hedges disappear.
And suddenly, there’s nothing holding price in that tight range.
We go from a market that’s pinned
to one that’s free to move.
And when that kind of restraint is removed,
price usually doesn’t drift.

It moves fast.
I’m not telling you which direction yet.
I’m telling you when the rules change.
I’ve seen this pattern many times over the years.
Markets can feel boring…right up until the moment they aren’t.
I’ll share an update once the expiration passes.
Just don’t confuse stillness with weakness.