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US willingness to weaken its currency and geopolitics boost Gold, hit the Greenback
Perfect storm – Money flows to Gold and away from the US Dollar. There are three catalysts for this:
While the crisis around Greenland is over, it left scars that could result in Europeans shying away from US assets.US Democrats threaten another government shutdown following one more death in Minneapolis at the hands of federal agents.The US Treasury is reportedly considering coordinating with Japanese authorities to strengthen the Yen, which weighs on the US Dollar.
Why it matters

Snowball effect – The fact that the US government is working to weaken the US Dollar outside of a crisis is enough to alarm investors about touching the Greenback. The last coordinated intervention to strengthen the Yen was in 2011, following the catastrophic tsunami. There is no force majeure now. Moreover, the accumulation of these blows to the US Dollar and boosts to Gold may cement the precious metal’s position as the ultimate safe-haven, creating long-lasting habits for investors. These moves occur more naturally moving forward.
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#Goldgreenback

An ascending parallel channel frames Gold’s advance, with the upper boundary near $5,158.99 capping immediate upside for the precious metal. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.25 is overbought on the 4-hour chart and warns that gains could stall unless momentum re-accelerates. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slipped into negative territory and is widening, showing the MACD line below the Signal line and a build-up of bearish momentum.
On the downside, the lower end of the ascending channel aligns near $4,973.57 and should act as a tailwind for Gold. If sellers extend control as flagged by the negative MACD tone, the XAU/USD could extend the corrective decline. That said, the RSI holding near 70 would favor consolidation over a deeper reversal. A decisive close below the channel base would undermine the bullish structure and shift focus to lower levels.
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$PAXG

Trump talks tough on tariffs, markets refuse to dip (for now)
Crying wolf – US President Donald Trump threatened South Korea with 15-25% tariffs, accusing the country of violating a trade deal. This comes in the wake of warnings to Canada of 100% duties, menacing the EU over Greenland, and previous comments about imposing 25% levies on all countries dealing with Iran. The Korean Kospi index and the Canadian Dollar are on the rise, ignoring the Commander-in-Chief.
Why it matters
The wolf could surprise – In the fable of ’The Boy Who Cried Wolf’, the villagers ignore the child until the ferocious animal eats their sheep. Bloomberg calculated that Trump follows through on only 20% of his threats, but the risk is that this “TACO” trade fails, biting off a large chunk of gains.
In the meantime, the villagers are moving away from the forest: the EU and India announced a trade deal, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit China with the intention to reach a fair agreement – following the footsteps of his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney.
What’s next
Forest rangers are out of town – The Supreme Court went on a recess without ruling on the legality of some of Trump’s tariffs. That gives the US president time to follow through with his threats, if he decides to. Any Executive Order on duties would spook markets, which are sure that Trump fears them. This would boost Gold.
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#FedWatch