Saad zai 1992

Gold and silver have been quite volatile over a period of more than ten years and the more I observe them the more I realize that they never run in a straight line. They stand on their hind legs, they plunge, they relax then they startle people once more. I do not feel that the crash and recovery that we are experiencing is a bizarre one time thing. It fits a trend I have witnessed numerous times: a large-scale buying by the majority of the market (all bullish) can be followed by a sudden selloff with one major event. Once such panic selling is over the fundamentals and long-term buyers tend to drive the prices back up.
In my case, it does not only matter that prices changed. It is the reason of why these swings occur, what the past 5-10 years actually reveal to us and what the recent few weeks may be signaling in a larger scale.
10 years of fluctuations: the history of gold and silver prices (2011-2025).
Over the past decade, price fluctuations of gold and silver have exhibited boom and bust procedures. Their peaks were at the year 2011, following the fears that had been experienced after the financial crisis. Gold was approximately $1,825 and silver was approximately 49. Thereafter they plummeted long.
In 2013, the Federal Reserve of the United States announced that it would reduce stimulus. This triggered a big reset. The gold price fell approximately 29 percent, approximately 1,695 at the beginning of 2013 to approximately 1,200 end of 2014. Silver dropped in the same time, when the dollar strengthened and the panic buying slowed down.
Gold reached a low of about 1,050 in 2015-2019, but it gradually recovered and remained between 1,200 and 1,300 throughout that phase of time. Silver dropped to a low of around $13 to 14 and was mostly in the mid teens.
In March 2020, many sellers made due to the COVID-19 shock. Then the populations were in need of safe investments. By August, gold had surged nearly 27 per cent and was trading at approximately over $2,000 against a level of approximately 1,575. Silver was quite unstable: it dropped to under $12 to an estimated high of approximately $30 a gain of over 150 percent.
Between 2021 and 2022, economies were opening and inflation was high and rates were being raised sharply, another shift in mood took place. Gold remained between $1,700 and $1,900, briefly reaching $2,070 during the Russia Ukraine war, and then returning to the 1,600s, as real rates increased. When the policy became tight, Silver was fluctuating between $22 and 28 and fell below 20.
Later in 2023 (late), gold surpassed the mark of 2,000 once again, achieving a figure of approximately 2,135. This was because of the continuing inflation, geopolitical risk and high demand by central banks. Silver came in behind, the year ending in the mid-20s.
And when I go still farther back (1970 - 2025), the pattern of gold has a repetitive aspect:
peaks of 1980, 2011, and yet again a new record is to be set by 2025. The most important thing to me is that the big point in 2020s was not just in the highs of the past, but in far higher levels that people would have considered impossible.
2025: precious metals record rally.
Then we had 2025 and that was dynamite. The gains in Gold and silver were the largest in over 40 years and did better than the late 1970s inflation on annual returns.
Gold began 2025 at approximately mid-2,000s and shot up to approximately $3,500 per ounce by April 2025, which was a new all-time high at the time. Central bank buying was one of the largest drivers of this - I continue to revisit this - and I am sure I will do so again.
In 2022 and 2023, central banks added more than 1,000 tons of gold in a historic accumulation; a long-term change they desire more protection and diversification, particularly not based on pure dependence on the U.S. dollar reserves.
Geopolitics mattered too. Investors were drawn towards hard assets due to such tensions such as the growing U.S. China trade friction. By the fall of 2025, gold was already climbing to new highs and other analysts were openly debating a new high of 5000 an ounce. By the end of 2025, Gold rose approximately 65 percent on the year - the most significant increase in the annual price per ounce since 1979.
Before 2026 Early: Gold and silver crash and recovery.
Then towards the end of January 2026, precious metals broke down. The day of January 30, 2026 was to be memorable: a sell-off in one day, and then an attempt to recuperate in early February.
What started it off was the political-monetary. Kevin Warsh became the next Fed Chair announced by Donald Trump. Warsh was considered to be a hawkish person, who would prefer to have higher interest rates and guarantee Fed independence. The repricing of markets occurred at a rapid pace: the U.S. dollar surged, and the so-called debasement trade (the notion that the printing of money causes hard assets to skyrocket) was reversed in the shortest period possible. And in an experience of watching these markets, gold and silver are generally hit when a market suddenly anticipates strictening of the monetary policy and a strengthening of the dollar.
Gold fell more than 10 percent in one day on Jan 30 its biggest one-day decline since 2013. It dropped to the middle of the 5,000s to approximately 4,700/oz. Sales did not cease as soon either: as of Feb 1, gold had gone down to approximately $4,404, a difference of nearly 21 per cent of the record of approximately $5,600 just a few days before. These were volatility levels so severe that there was a margin call increase of gold trading.
Silver was still more violent, such as one may reasonably expect where chaos sets in, since silver is smaller and more speculative. It declined 36 percent on a single day on Jan. 30, the worst performance since 1980. It dropped to about $120/oz to as low as the mid -70s and by the beginning of February it was close to 71.7/oz, which is over 40 percent of its high of over 121. This wasn’t just “a dip.” It replicated the 1980 silver crash and made everyone (once again): silver is much like a leveraged form of gold.
then back the rebound affirmed. In a few days, the two metals rebounded with bargain-seekers and long-term investors entering into the picture. By early February, gold had recovered to an average of the crashing around at about $4,700 and remained up approximately 10% on the year even upon the crash. Silver recovered to approximately 84/oz, and it has recovered a significant portion of the dump and remained up approximately 9% YTD. One important thing that analysts highlighted that I would agree with is that the same big drivers that drove the previous bull run central bank demand, geopolitical tension, inflation hedging, did not transform into nothingness overnight. That is the reason why the market may overcome the volatility of a macro-driven volatility, after the panic wave.
This volatility was termed by the veteran traders as historic and unprecedented in the modern time. Both metals were attempting to stabilize by early February 2026 and the big question was what does this new macro regime (this time perhaps might be a more hawkish Fed tone and a stronger dollar) imply in the next stage?
Principles and macro: what actually drives gold and silver.
It is the one I resume reading and reading, since gold and silver are not merely charts to me. They are macro assets. They react to the inflation rate, interest rates, the strength of the currency, universal panic, and capital flows.
The other pillar is the geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand. Gold tends to be the biggest beneficiary of flight to safety on crisis occasions - pandemic shocks, war, systemic fear. Silver frequently trails but the provision of a safe-haven is less powerful, due to being an industrial metal as well. Late 2025 broad tension and uncertainty (including U.S.-China friction) enhanced the demand of gold and that support did not disappear simply because the prices regained their position in 2026.
The buying by the central bank is an immense contemporary force in terms of the gold. The central banks have been buying at net since 2010 and the last few years have seen an upsurge in purchasing. They purchased an amount of 1,136 tonnes (record) and 1,037 tonnes in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Such motives are a move away the U.S. dollar, construction of buffers, and sanction risk hedging. Both large and small countries were buyers (China (more than 200t added in 2023) and smaller countries). This is important as it brings about a literal floor beneath gold. Silver is not purchased by central banks as a reserve and thus this tailwind is primarily driving gold, and not silver.
Supply factors matter too. The increase in gold supply is low (around 12 percent annually). Elevated prices may boost recycling and stimulate new mines but they take time and in the meantime the prices may run away. Silver supply is not always a direct result of silver prices, unlike other mining (copper, lead, zinc) and therefore does not react to them fast. There is also the risk that extremely high silver prices will cause scrap selling (people cashing in old silver), which will diminish the upside. In the meantime, the long-term problems such as decreasing ore grade and the increase in the cost of extraction increase the marginal cost of both metals in the long run. Even the Bank of America analysts have forecasted the lower output of the gold mines (down approximately 2% in the year 2026) and an increase in the cost which may create tensions in the gold market.
The U.S dollar is always important since gold and silver are traded in dollars universally. Gold and silver tend to increase when the dollar becomes weak. They generally decline when the dollar is stronger. The increase in gold and silver in 2025 was facilitated by a weak dollar and the abrupt decline in early 2026 was as a result of the jump of the dollar.
They also can be influenced by other market and commodity trends. Gold may act contrary to stocks, however, in 202021 both of them increased due to the abundance of money in the market. Silver can be more related to growth as it is applied in the industry.
It is the reason why when the price of gold and other metals dropped in early 2026, the same happened to the price of base metals such as copper and nickel, in general showing a downward trend in commodities that were associated with concerns about growth.
In brief, the reason why gold is strong is that it is purchased by central banks, is consumed by investors as protection and is scarce in amount. Silver is the same but more unstable and responsive to the situation in the industry. The two will continue to trend according to major economic news that can subdue short-term chart trends.
Patterns that are technical and recurrent.
The gold and silver pass through cycles. Between 2000s and 2011 they increased powerfully. From 2012 to 2015 they fell. There was a newer increase beginning around 2016 and increasing more rapidly in 2020s.
Another major chart event occurred when the gold surpassed its 2011 high of approximately 1.920 in mid 2020. It was another long-term increase. Silver remained lagging behind until 2020 when it eventually overcame the level of approximately 30. Typically, gold increases and then silver rises and can do even better when the market becomes hot. This occurred in the 1970s and in 2020-2025.
Gold and silver are different due to volatility. The price movements of silver on a daily basis tend to be a number of times greater in magnitude as compared to gold and hence risk management is more relevant to silver than it is to gold. Exchanges increased margin rules to reduce the risk of defaults in January 2026, and this indicates the size of the trouble. Long-term indicators such as the 200-day average are being checked by the traders, however, trendlines and short-term indicators would not help during very volatile periods.
Cryptocurrency in the image: digital gold, or another monster?
Crypto is a twist since Bitcoin is referred to as digital gold. It is easy: it contains a set amount of 21million coins, it is believed to retain value, and it is an alternative to normal money.
We can make comparisons of them in 2025. Gold jumped more than 60%. Bitcoin also decreased approximately 5-10 percent and was among the most sluggish. Analysts opined that gold remained the safe haven of choice whereas Bitcoin is not a sound hedge. Even Gold and Bitcoin developed a touch negative negative relationship in late 2025, approximately -0.1, over a year, that is, they tended to go antithetically.
It is practical. The fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin are enormous in contrast to gold. It is able to fall 50 percent quickly whereas gold travels at a slower pace. In addition, central banks, jewelry manufacturers and large companies also purchase gold hence the demand of this commodity is sound. Bitcoin has no central-bank purchasers and it is still subject to regulation and other risks. Gold maintained itself well when the inflation was high in 2021 2022. Bitcoin rose prematurely and dropped as the policy tightened. This demonstrates that Bitcoin acts as a dangerous commodity that requires liquidity, whereas gold is more associated with actual interest rates and trust in cash.
There is a controversy: is crypto stealing money in 2020-2021 out of gold? Some say yes. However, in 2022-2023 crypto declined, and gold was again more focused on. By 2025 gold has increased as compared to Bitcoin which has remained the same, meaning that both are different investors. It is now perceived by many that they are both complementary: gold as a security, Bitcoin as huge profits. In the weak-currency countries such as Argentina and Turkey, the two are used to hedge against loss of money.
Ethereerum is also referred to as crypto silver by some people because it has numerous industrial applications such as smart contracts, settlements and applications but the analogy is not exact.
The point is the easiest one: crypto has not replaced gold and silver as a safe deposit at a time of trouble. Gold is the most reliable hedge in use, although the concepts of Bitcoin are attractive
Prospect and what the community ought to remain vigilant on.
Wealth can be safeguarded by gold and silver, though it too can be easily unpredictable, particularly following massive runs. The past couple of weeks provided a lesson of their own, with a single major shock in the economy devastating a packed trade, and the price recovering almost as soon as panic selling is halted.
Henceforth, the society must monitor some important indicators. Watch the central banks (their policies and buys), inflation, real yields and U.S. dollar. Watch geopolitics, as gold is a fast mover of world fears. Another thing to monitor is whether prices support after a crash- have they held at the same levels, then it is an indication that the longer-term trend remains healthy even following temporary falls.
A significant number of analysts believe that the long-term upward trend is not dead. As an example, JPMorgan Chase is not pessimistic following the crash and predicts that gold may reach approximately 6,300 in 2026, although market volatility might persist. Silver may need to make additional corrections as it overshot it, and some experts indicate that silver would fall during the next months to even out the massive multi-year gain.
Personally, it is clear to me that the key to looking at this cycle as to why it always goes up or always goes down is not the case. Rather, observe the rhythm: big economic forces determine the direction, pattern on the chart determine the time, and silver amplifies the amount that gold does. The moral is the first one psychological: not to disregard history. New highs that occur after big falls long-run take place but the journey is not always easier.