Bitcoin Is Below Trend just Pinned by Structure At ~21 months post-halving, Bitcoin is 26.7% below its long-term power-law value ($89.5k vs ~$122k).
In every prior cycle, this point was overheated. This cycle is still below trend.
That’s the anomaly.
Leverage isn’t the issue: • Funding ~1.5% APR • Vol ~33% No FOMO. No liquidation fuel.
Flows aren’t the driver: • ETF outflows are small and slowing • Price isn’t breaking because structure, not sentiment, is in control.
Here’s the constraint: Options. • Net gamma is positive → volatility suppressed • Price pinned near ~$90k • Support near ~$85k • Upside supply clustered at $100k+
Now the key part most people miss: ~43% of total gamma expires around Jan 30.
That doesn’t predict direction. It removes a mechanical restraint.
When the hedge comes off, price is allowed to move again even if the narrative doesn’t change.
Hash rate isn’t at ATH, but hash vs price is constructive. The network isn’t breaking. The market is just compressed.
The U.S. Senate is voting tomorrow at the committee level on the Crypto Market Structure Bill : one of the most important regulatory moments for crypto in years.
The bill seeks long-awaited regulatory clarity, defining oversight between the SEC and CFTC, and builds on the House-passed CLARITY (FIT21) framework.
Săptămâna aceasta are una dintre cele mai periculoase setări macro pe care le-am văzut în luni. În următoarele 3 zile, șase evenimente majore vor lovi piața. 1 Trump vorbește astăzi la 4 PM ET.
El va vorbi despre economia SUA și prețurile energiei.
Dacă el cere prețuri mai mici la energie, acest lucru va afecta direct inflația.
2 Decizia Fed de mâine.
De data aceasta, nu se așteaptă tăiere sau creștere a ratelor.
Așa că adevărata mișcare va începe când Powell va vorbi.
Acum 2 săptămâni, Powell l-a acuzat pe Trump că l-a forțat pentru tăieri de rate.
De asemenea, indicatorul BLS al inflației nu arată niciun semn major de încetinire.
BlackRock depune un dosar pentru un nou ETF iShares Bitcoin Premium Income începând cu ianuarie 2026.
Fondul ar oferi expunere la Bitcoin în timp ce generează venit prin vânzarea activă de opțiuni call pe iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) de peste 70 miliarde de dolari.
Strategia își propune să monetizeze volatilitatea Bitcoin-ului, oferind venit constant în timp ce reduce potențial pierderile comparativ cu deținerea directă a BTC.
Aceasta semnalează următoarea fază a ETF-urilor Bitcoin, trecând dincolo de expunerea pură la preț către produse structurate, axate pe venit, urmând succesul istoric al IBIT.@Plasma #Plasma $XPL
$BTC A FLORENT FĂRĂ BĂNCI ; ASTĂZI, BĂNCILE SE ÎNTORC LA BITCOIN
Aproape 60% dintre cele mai mari 25 de bănci din SUA oferă sau dezvoltă acum produse Bitcoin ; semnalizând o schimbare majoră de la scepticismul din trecut la adoptarea de masă.
Trei dintre cei „Mari Patru” ai țării conduc atacul: - JPMorgan Chase ($3.79T) : explorând tranzacționarea cu criptomonede. - Citigroup ($1.83T) : construind servicii de custodie instituțională. - Wells Fargo ($1.75T) : oferind împrumuturi garantate cu Bitcoin.
Zone cheie de interes: - Custodie: Stocare sigură pentru active digitale.
BIG WARNING: THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CRYPTO IS BACK.
The probability of a US government shutdown by January 31 has exploded to nearly 80%.
Just a day ago, it was only around 10%-15%.
And this is a serious liquidity risk for crypto.
Democrats have made it clear they will block the spending bill unless key DHS funding provisions are removed, and Republicans are not backing down, which means a shutdown is now a real possibility.
And here is the dangerous part: The debt ceiling has already been raised to $41.1 trillion.
That means politicians can afford to fight longer without instantly breaking government operations, which actually increases the chance of a shutdown.
But if that's the case, why would crypto suffer?
When a shutdown starts, the US Treasury usually rebuilds its Treasury General Account (TGA). To do that, it pulls money out of financial markets.
Last time this happened, the TGA increased by about $220 billion. That was a $220B liquidity drain from markets, and crypto cannot handle that.
Last shutdown cycle: • Markets pumped for a short time • Liquidity dried up • Then crypto collapsed • BTC and ETH dropped 20%-25% • Altcoins dropped much more
And one of the biggest factors behind this was the liquidity crisis.
This time, the setup is even worse.
• Liquidity is already thin. • Market confidence is already weak. • Institutions are mostly in stocks and gold. • Volatility is already high
Crypto is already swinging violently on small flows.
The Japanese yen just had its biggest one-day jump in months. Why? Because traders think Japan -- possibly with U.S. help -- may step in to support the yen. Here’s what actually happened: 🇯🇵 The yen has been getting crushed 🏦 Japan warned speculators to back off 📞 The New York Fed did “rate checks” on USD/JPY -- something that usually happens before possible intervention
This does NOT mean the Fed is already selling dollars, it means markets think the odds just went up.
Why this matters: - When the U.S. and Japan act together, the dollar usually weakens - When the dollar weakens, liquidity improves - Better liquidity usually helps stocks, gold, and crypto. @Cellula Re-poster #dusk @Walrus 🦭/acc #walrus @Plasma #Plasma $XPL $WAL $DUSK