Daily Crypto Edge

**Publicat**: miercuri, 14 ianuarie 2026
**Public țintă**: tranzactori de cripto, investitori orientați spre macroeconomie, DeFi & deținători de poziții cu杠杆
**Scop**: Traducerea datelor macroeconomice din SUA în informații actionabile pentru tranzacționarea criptomonedelor
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## 🔍 Imaginea generală: CPI principal blocat la 2,6% — Temerile de majorare a dobânzii ale Fed-ului se întorc?

Biroul Statisticilor Muncii din SUA a publicat date cheie privind inflația pe **13 ianuarie 2026**, arătând:

> ✅ **CPI principal (y/y)** = **2,6%** — *neschimbat față de lună precedentă*
> ✅ **CPI (y/y)** = **326,030** (nivel index) — *ușor peste prognoza de 325,833*

The dominant market narrative is Stagflation 2.0. Growth is stalling at 1.9% while CPI remains stuck at 2.9% due to tariff pass-through and fiscal loosening from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve that is trapped between a slowing labor market (4.6% unemployment) and sticky inflation.
​
Crypto Price Action
First Reaction: BTC and ETH will pump. Markets will interpret the upcoming February tax cuts and deregulatory environment as a massive liquidity injection, overriding immediate inflation fears.
​
Second Reaction: A sharp trap. As the reality of "higher-for-longer" interest rates sets in to combat 2.9% CPI, the initial "Trump Trade" euphoria will dissolve into a liquidity crunch.
​
Strategic Bias
The bias is Bearish for the mid-term. While the OBBBA provides short-term adrenaline, the rising term premiums and a deficit at 6.2% of GDP will eventually force a de-risking event.
​
Invalidation Condition: If CPI prints below 2.5% in the next reading, the stagflation narrative dies, and a true bull continuation begins.
​
The Victim: Breakout buyers at the $100k psychological level will get trapped. They will buy the "fiscal stimulus" news and get liquidated when the Fed refuses to cut rates in March.
#BTC #USATARRIF #CPIWatch
$BTC
$ETH

⚫ Lista de Supraveghere pentru Weekend — 24–25 Ianuarie 2026

Piețele pot fi liniștite, dar semnalele macro și on-chain nu iau pauză. Iată lista ta concisă, cu semnale puternice pentru weekend:

1. 🌍 Eveniment Macro: Publicarea IPC-ului din Japonia (Duminică, 26 Ianuarie la 23:50 UTC)**
**De ce este important**:
Inflația Japoniei a fost cu obstinație peste 2% timp de 8 luni consecutive. Dacă **IPC-ul de bază (exclusiv alimentele proaspete)** va fi ridicat (>2.4% YoY), Banca Japoniei ar putea finalmente să semnaleze o încheiere a ratelor negative—generând o **dezinvestire masivă a trade-ului JPY**.

Crypto’s bridge to traditional markets gets stronger: Thoughts on the Nasdaq and CME partnership

Jan 24, 2026 · 5 min read
Every so often, an evolutionary leap occurs in the investment space. Today’s formal rebranding of the Nasdaq Crypto™ Index to the Nasdaq CME Crypto™ Index marks such a milestone for crypto investors—one that we believe will change how institutions think about crypto allocations. 
This strengthened flagship index celebrates a trusted partnership between Nasdaq and derivatives financial services heavyweight Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group. 
In merging their respective brands to strengthen this institutional-grade digital asset benchmark, the Nasdaq CME Crypto™ Index (NCI™) builds on its transparency and governance across the US, Europe, and Latin America. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) and other instruments tracking NCI™ can benefit from increased liquidity, tighter spreads, and smoother execution. And by leveraging decades of collective experience building modern financial infrastructure, NCI™ pairs traditional market expertise with digital asset innovation. For investors building crypto exposure for the first time, a benchmark like the NCI™ provides the same type of foundation that an index like the Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500 offers for equities.
 
Creating an institutional benchmark: Methodology matters 
 
The Nasdaq and CME partnership is a clear sign that the NCI™ is becoming the definitive benchmark for the emerging crypto asset class. Why does this matter? Benchmarks enable portfolio construction, performance attribution, and allow institutions to allocate at scale. The NCI™ is providing the necessary criteria for these institutions to get exposure to the crypto market, including a replicable methodology, increased liquidity via ETPs and other instruments, and the institutional acceptance that comes along with two firms with extensive experience building sophisticated financial infrastructure.

When it comes to fortifying a category-defining index like the NCI™, a measured approach to curating a list of constituent companies is vital to reflecting trends in the broader crypto market. This is why, since 2020, Hashdex has taken a hands-on role in building this benchmark, co-developing the NCI™ in partnership with Nasdaq Global Indexes.
NCI’s™ methodology is designed to bring the same high standards for traditional market indexes to crypto. The benchmark’s quarterly reconstitution practices support a long-term culture of folding promising and emergent crypto assets into the mix. Only crypto assets that meet the requisite liquidity, exchangeability, and fungibility standards are eligible for inclusion. Candidates must likewise trade on at least two major exchanges for the entire period since the last index readjustment and prospective newcomers must be supported by reputable custodians with demonstrably efficient operational controls.
 
The Nasdaq CME Crypto™ Index: Key differentiators and institutional-grade criteria

 

Nasdaq, Nasdaq Crypto Index - Factsheet, accessed January 19, 2026.
Effective January 20, 2026, the index changed its name from Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) to Nasdaq CME Crypto™ Index.
 
Fortunately, the pool of crypto assets runs deep. And what does NCI’s™ constituent breakdown look like today? As you might imagine, industry stalwarts Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) factor prominently as the index’s two largest assets. And while their foundational roles will likely keep these names around for a while, NCI™ additionally features evolving set of crypto assets, presently including XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar (XLM). Of course, these weightings are subject to change every quarter, to keep their representations on track amid macroeconomic changes and evolving investment theses.
 
What lies ahead for crypto in 2026?
 
With the Nasdaq/CME partnership signaling crypto’s shift from a speculative, niche ecosystem into a sophisticated asset class, digital assets may offer uncorrelated returns that complement traditional investments. This is one of the reasons why Hashdex is now endorsing increasing crypto allocations to 5%-10% for most investors, as we outlined in our 2026 Crypto Investment Outlook. Many predictive metrics support this recalibration:
 
The rise of the “cryptodollar”: Stablecoins—digital assets linked to fiat currencies like the US dollar or the euro may spike in global market cap from $295 billion to $500 billion or more this year, and into the trillions of dollars within five years.AI catalyzing crypto: As blockchains rise in prominence to buttress the increased verification, coordination, and economic autonomy AI demands, so too will rise investment opportunities in the AI crypto space.Scaling tokenization: Financial services behemoths like BlackRock and JPMorgan have begun using blockchain technology to overhaul their infrastructure and more efficiently compete for capital. This could spike tokenized assets tenfold this year alone.Demand outpacing supply: This fundamental economic principle may materially influence crypto asset pricing. As demand for these assets increases while supply remains limited, prices tend to rise—a benefit to those who opt in early. 
 
Final thoughts

Hashdex has nearly $1B in global products that track the NCI™ and we’re excited to continue to help drive investor interest in the crypto asset class. Effective today, the names of Hashdex’s products that track the NCI™ will be updated to reflect the index rebranding. For more information on how this rebranding will impact specific products.

As crypto continues to mature from a once-niche technology play into an indispensable building block of the global economic food chain, institutional investors seeking diversified and dynamic exposure to non-traditional investments can no longer overlook this asset class. And without question, tradable and transparent indexes like the Nasdaq CME Crypto™

#Index will continue to help facilitate the adoption of this asset class for investors big and small. 

#cryptocurreny #NasdaqTokenization #ETFs
$BTC
$ETH

Contenderi de top pentru rol
Kevin Warsh:
Un fost guvernator al Fed (2006–2011) actualmente văzut de piețele de predicție ca fiind favoritul principal.
Rick Rieder:
Director de Investiții pentru Venit Fix Global la BlackRock, a cărui candidatură a câștigat o tracțiune semnificativă recent.
Kevin Hassett:
Director al Consiliului Economic Național și un consilier economic de lungă durată al lui Trump.
Christopher Waller:
Un actual guvernator al Fed care s-a întâlnit cu Trump pentru un interviu la sfârșitul anului 2025.
Washington
Căutarea unui înlocuitor pentru președintele Rezervei Federale Jerome Powell a luat din nou o întorsătură, cu un concurent neașteptat câștigând avânt: Rick Rieder de la BlackRock.

🔴 Vineri — 23 Ianuarie 2026

Presiunea tăcută care se acumulează sub USDT și USDC
Stablecoins par calme la suprafață — dar dedesubt, buffer-ele de lichiditate se subțiază.
În timp ce toată lumea se concentrează pe fluxurile ETF Bitcoin și pe pivoturile Fed, piețele de finanțare în dolari offshore se strâng. Semnalul cheie? Baza swap-ului FX între USD și principalele monede EM (JPY, KRW, BRL) s-a lărgit la niveluri care nu au fost văzute din 2023.
De ce contează asta pentru stablecoins?
- USDT depinde în mare măsură de piața de comercializare offshore și de piețele repo — în special în Singapore și Insulele Cayman.

BUIDL-ul lui BlackRock. ETF-ul ETH al lui Franklin Templeton. USDY-ul lui Ondo.
Titlurile de stat ale SUA tokenizate sunt narațiunea cea mai populară din 2026—și pe bună dreptate: **randament real, pe lanț, 24/7**.

Dar există o defectiune critică pe care majoritatea investitorilor o ignoră:
**Custodia nu este descentralizată. Este concentrată—și fragilă din punct de vedere legal.**

🔍 Verificarea realității custodelor
Toate protocoalele RWA majore se bazează pe **un singur custode**: **Anchorage Digital** (acum o bancă autorizată federal).
- BUIDL-ul lui BlackRock? Anchorage.
- Fondurile tokenizate ale lui Franklin? Anchorage.

Majoritatea traderilor urmăresc prețul BTC.
Banii inteligenti urmăresc lichiditatea.
Și în acest moment, un indicator critic pe lanțul de blocuri — raportul de ofertă de stablecoin (SSR) — emite un semnal bullish rar, nevăzut de la bull run-ul din 2024.

🔢 Ce este SSR?
SSR = Capitalizarea pieței Bitcoin împărțită la ofertă totală de stablecoin
- SSR ridicat = Prea mult BTC care urmărește o lichiditate prea mică în stablecoin → atenție
- SSR scăzut = O cantitate generoasă de stablecoin disponibilă pentru a cumpăra BTC → oportunitate
La data de 15 ianuarie 2026:
- Capitalizarea pieței BTC: 1,32 trilioane USD
- Ofertă totală de stablecoin (USDT + USDC + DAI + FDUSD): 189 miliarde USD

[Crypto Edge]
*January 14, 2026 | Global Macro Brief*

You’ve probably seen it:
> “CHINA JUST BROKE THE GLOBAL MARKET!!”
> “$48 TRILLION PRINTED—COMMODITY APOCALYPSE IMMINENT!”
> “Western banks short 550% of global silver supply—IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER!”
Sounds terrifying. Feels urgent.
But it’s mostly **noise**—amplified by algorithms, recycled memes, and a deep misunderstanding of how China actually works.
Let’s reset with facts.

🔢 1. China’s M2 Is Huge—But Not What You Think
Yes, China’s M2 money supply hit **¥310 trillion RMB** (≈ **$43.2 trillion USD**) by December 2025 ([PBoC](https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/)).
That’s **more than double** the U.S. M2 of **$20.9 trillion** ([Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)).

🚨 *Alarming?* Only if you ignore context.
In the U.S., capital flows through stock markets, bonds, and venture capital.
In China, **everything runs through banks**. M2 includes corporate deposits, local government financing vehicles, and even idle savings from households wary of property markets.
> 💡 **Key insight**: China’s M2 has always been inflated by design. It’s not “printed cash”—it’s a reflection of a **bank-dominated financial system**.
And growth is actually *slowing*: M2 expanded just **7.2% YoY in 2025**, down from double digits in 2020–2022.

🏗️ 2. Is China Hoarding Commodities?

Partly—but not in a panic.
- **Gold**: China added **331 tonnes** since November 2022, now holding **2,279t** ([World Gold Council](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-gold-reserves)). That’s strategic—but still less than half of U.S. reserves (8,133t).
- **Copper**: Imports fell **3.2% YoY in 2025** ([China Customs](http://english.customs.gov.cn/))—a sign of weak construction demand, not hoarding.
- **Lithium & Cobalt**: China doesn’t just buy—it *controls processing*. It refines **~70% of global lithium** and **60% of cobalt**
This isn’t “printing yuan to buy metal.” It’s **vertical integration**—securing supply chains for EVs, solar panels, and defense tech.
🥈 3. The “4.4 Billion Ounce Silver Short” Is a Myth
One viral claim insists Western banks are short **4.4 billion ounces of silver**—over **550% of annual mine supply** (~850M oz, per [Silver Institute]

**This is false.**
Reality:
- Total COMEX silver futures open interest: ~**180,000 contracts** = **900 million oz** *notional value*
- Actual short positions? Likely **under 200 million oz** across all instruments (futures + OTC).
- Physical delivery is rare: **<1%** of contracts result in metal exchnge.
Markets don’t collapse because shorts exceed annual flow. They adjust via **price, recycling (200M+ oz/year), and paper settlement**.

> 🚫 The “mathematically impossible squeeze” is a **decades-old myth**—repeated in 2011, 2019, and now 2026.
🌍 4. The Real Game: De-Dollarization
Here’s where China *is* making bold moves:
- **U.S. Treasury holdings**: Down from **$1.3T (2013)** to **$760B (Nov 2025)**
- **RMB trade settlement**: Over **50% of China’s trade** now uses yuan—up from 15% in 2015
- **CIPS (China’s SWIFT alternative)**: Transaction volume up **45% YoY** in 2025.
This isn’t about “dumping Treasuries tomorrow.” It’s about **building alternatives**—so China can’t be financially strangled in a crisis.
🧭 Two Visions of Economic Power

**The West**
| Faith in markets, liquidity, and financial innovation | Faith in physical control, industrial policy, and state coordination |
**China**
| Wealth = stocks, bonds, derivatives | Wealth = mines, refineries, ports, and long-term resource contracts |

Neither is perfect.
The U.S. faces political gridlock and eroding trust.
China battles deflation, aging demographics, and tech bottlenecks.
But as global confidence in **unbacked fiat** wavers—amid $37T U.S. debt, persistent inflation, and geopolitical fractures—the side that controls **real inputs** gains leverage.

✅ The Bottom Line
- China’s economy is **slowing**, not collapsing.
- Its M2 is large but **structurally normal**.
- It’s securing commodities **strategically**, not frantically.
- The “silver short apocalypse” is **fiction**.
- And yes—China is **quietly decoupling** from dollar hegemony.

This isn’t chaos.
It’s **calculated adaptation** in a multipolar world.
The winners won’t be those shouting about “trillion-dollar collapses.”
They’ll be the ones watching who controls the copper, the cobalt, and the clearing systems—and betting accordingly.
#ChinaEconomy #worldmarket #binanxcesquare

Narrația despre „scărire” este supusă unei reînnoiri fundamentale în 2026. Nu mai este vorba doar de o ofertă finită; este vorba despre modul în care această scărire funcționează într-un sistem financiar modern modelat de narative, accesul pieței și încredere. Piețele nu aleg un singur câștigător, ci acordă roluri distincte Bitcoin, aurului și argintului.

📜 Reevaluarea Scăririi: Un Cadru

Valoarea unui activ scurt este acum evaluată prin trei perspective:

· Credibilitate: Mecanismul de scărire este încredere? (Cod vs. geologie vs. cerere industrială)

Principalele concluzii
•Binance introduce contracte perpetue ale TradFi pentru tranzacționarea 24/7.
•Aceste contracte permit tranzacționarea 24/7, oferind expunere la piețele tradiționale cu flexibilitatea termenilor de tranzacționare în cripto.

Binance extinde ecosistemul său de contracte cu termen cu lansarea contractelor perpetue TradFi, oferind acces fără întreruperi, 24/7, la piețele tradiționale prin contracte perpetue cu stabilire în USDT.

Începând cu Aurul (XAUUSDT) și Argintul (XAGUSDT), utilizatorii pot tranzacționa fără date de expirare, proteja portofoliile, diversifica expunerea și amplifica randamentele cu levere.

În ultimii douăzeci de ani, Statele Unite ale Americii au cunoscut o transformare dramatică în rolul său în piețele globale de energie. Odată importator net, foarte dependent de petrolul străin – în special din Orientul Mijlociu – SUA s-au impus ca cel mai mare producător de petrol brut din lume și un actor esențial de "piață" în dinamica globală a energiei. Această schimbare a fost determinată în mare măsură de revoluția şistului, progresele în tehnologiile de extracție și deciziile strategice politice, reconfigurând alianțele geopolitice, fluxurile comerciale globale și paradigmele securității energetice.

Bitcoin a revenit peste nivelul de 92.000 USD după ce a petrecut mai multe zile blocat sub 90.000 USD, oferind o scurtă senzație de ușurință pieței care a rămas sub presiune de la sfârșitul anului 2025. Recuperarea a ajutat la stabilizarea sentimentului pe termen scurt, dar încrederea rămâne fragilă. Mulți analiști continuă să avertizeze că 2026 ar putea evolua într-un piață bear, invocând o cerere slabă la punct, o mișcare care se dizolvă și o activitate constantă de vânzare din partea participanților mai mari.
Comportamentul pe lanț oferă o perspectivă mai precisă. Datele despre fluxul net de schimb sunt deosebit de relevante în perioadele de tensiune geopolitică, deoarece reflectă dacă deținătorii se pregătesc să vândă sau aleg să rămână în afara pieței. Când domina teama, intrările în schimburi cresc de obicei, pe măsură ce participanții mută monedele pe platforme.

The dominant market narrative is Volatility Exhaustion. BTC/USDT is currently trading at $91,100, down 2.58% in the last 24 hours, struggling to hold the $91k psychological floor. The Supertrend is flashing a definitive sell signal at $92,731.40, indicating that any minor bounce is currently being sold into by smart money.
​
Crypto Price Action
First Reaction: BTC will likely test the recent wick low of $90,675.52. With the RSI(9) sitting at 33.27, we are approaching oversold territory, but the downward momentum remains heavy.
​
Second Reaction: A trap bounce. Expect a fake recovery toward $92,000 to lure in "dip buyers" before a final flush toward the $89k-90k liquidity zone.
​#BtcLiquidation #ETHWhaleWatch $BTC
$ETH

Imaginea macroscopic s-a slăbit. Soldul comercial se extinde din nou, în timp ce exporturile rămân stagnante, iar importurile rămân ridicate. Statele Unite consumă mai mult decât produc. Acesta nu este un semn de forță. Este stres de cerere.

Productivitatea a crescut brusc la 4,2%. Arată bullish la prima vedere. Nu este. Productivitatea crește în timp ce costurile unitare ale forței de muncă urcă la 1,6%, ceea ce înseamnă că companiile forțează o ieșire mai mare din același număr de angajați fără a ușura presiunea salarială. Marjele rămân sub stres. Inflația nu dispare.

Semnalul real este în forța de muncă. Cererile inițiale de şomaj au crescut la 226.000, de la 199.000. Cererile continue au crescut la 1,897 milioane. Piața muncii se crăpă, nu se prăbușește. Este exact mediul pe care piețele îl prețuiesc greșit: frica de creștere crește, în timp ce presiunea inflaționistă refuză să dispară.

Această reprezentare capturează o narativă comună în finanțe: Bitcoin ca challenger "aur digital" al aurului tradițional, dar cu beneficii și riscuri amplificate. Pentru a evalua acest lucru în mod corect, voi analiza pe baza unor metrice cheie precum creșterea, volatilitatea, stabilitatea și alți factori, susținute de date istorice din ianuarie 2016 până în ianuarie 2026 (un interval de 10 ani în care datele zilnice fiabile se suprapun). Prețurile actuale la data de 7 ianuarie 2026: Bitcoin la 91.009,38 USD, Aur la 4.456,13 USD pe uncie troy.
1. Creștere (Returnuri)

Market participants are closely watching the U.S. December ADP private-sector employment report, scheduled for release today at 21:15, as institutions publish a wide range of forecasts following a sharp contraction in the previous reading.
The prior ADP report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, underscoring late-year labor market softness. Current institutional projections point to a return to job growth, though estimates vary significantly.
Forecasts by institution
Low-end estimates
Spartan Securities: +16K
Sumitomo Mitsui: +34K
Zürcher Kantonalbank: +40K
DZ Bank: +40K
Mid-range estimates
Allied Irish Banks: +45K
Scotiabank: +45K
Pantheon Macroeconomics: +45K
PNC Group: +48K
Upper-range estimates
Deutsche Bank: +50K
Goldman Sachs: +55K
Bank of Montreal: +56K
TD Securities: +60K
High-end estimates
BNP Paribas: +70K
Helaba: +75K
Mizuho Bank: +80K
Market context
The ADP employment report is often viewed as an early signal ahead of the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, though its predictive reliability has been inconsistent in recent months. Still, the data can influence short-term market expectations around labor market momentum, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy.
The wide dispersion in forecasts reflects uncertainty over year-end hiring trends, seasonal adjustments, and the broader trajectory of U.S. economic growth heading into 2026.
The release will be closely monitored across rates, FX, equities, and crypto markets for any deviation from expectations that could reshape near-term risk sentiment.
#USJobsData
#ADPJobsData