bitcoincycle

Dacă ai fost în crypto suficient de mult, deja cunoști acest sentiment.
Totul pare puternic. Titlurile sunt optimiste. Prețurile zboară. Oamenii încep să spună: „De data aceasta este diferit.” Apoi, dintr-o dată… Bitcoin scade cu 10% într-o zi. Apoi 20%. Apoi frica preia controlul.
Și toată lumea începe să pună aceeași întrebare:
„Este acesta sfârșitul… sau doar un alt ciclu?”
Pentru a înțelege ce se întâmplă în 2026, mai întâi trebuie să ne uităm la ce s-a întâmplat înainte.
Pentru că Bitcoin nu se mișcă aleatoriu. Urmează modele de comportament uman, flux de bani și levier.

Piața cripto este în prezent un cimitir al visurilor de "noi maxime". În ceea ce pare a fi o clipire din ochi, Bitcoin a căzut de la vârfurile sale din octombrie 2025 în regiunea de 60.000 $, lăsând investitorii de rând șocați și sentimentul în prăpastie.

Pentru mulți, aceasta pare a fi sfârșitul. Dar dacă ai urmărit teza mea despre Minima Ciclică din 2026, aceasta nu este o surpriză - este o confirmare.
Anatomia unei adevărate minime
Istoric, prima cădere bruscă într-un ciclu este rar minimul. Este "Faza de Șoc." Adevăratele minime generational nu sunt construite pe dramă sau panică zgomotoasă; ele sunt construite pe apatie.

$BTC has now tested the $60K region, sending sentiment sharply bearish and flipping the narrative from “new highs” to “cycle is broken.”

BTCUSDT
Perp 65,988.5
-5.77%

📉 Price is down, fear is rising, but structurally the thesis remains intact.

Why $60K isn’t the bottom:

Historical cycle lows form later, not during the first wave of pain

Expect failed rebounds, low volatility, and dwindling participation
True bear market bottoms arrive quietly, with apathy—not drama

💡 Key takeaway:

Opportunity isn’t about timing the exact bottom

It’s about preparing strategically when conviction fades

Markets bottom when nobody is left to speak

If the 2026 low model (~$25K) is even directionally correct, moves like $60K are just early-to-mid cycle compression, part of the process that resets expectations.

The real accumulation phase will feel boring and pointless — that’s when long-term wealth quietly forms.
#BTC #BitcoinCycle #BTC60K #CryptoMarketInsights

In my previous post, I shared the idea that Bitcoin’s potential cycle low could form around ~$25,000 near 2026.
Since that analysis,
has now traded down into the $60K region. For many people, this already feels like capitulation.
Price has dropped materially, sentiment has flipped bearish very quickly, and the narrative has shifted from “new highs” straight to “the cycle is broken.”
However, from a structural perspective, this does not invalidate the original thesis — it actually supports it.
History shows that major cycle lows are not formed during the first wave of decline.
They form later, after:
Multiple failed rebounds
Long periods of boring, sideways price action
Declining volume and participation
A widespread belief that “crypto is dead”
What we are seeing now looks more like early-to-mid cycle compression, not a final bottom.
Sharp drops are painful, but true bear market bottoms are slow, grinding, and emotionally numbing.
They don’t arrive with drama — they arrive with apathy.
If the model pointing to a ~$25K low in 2026 is even directionally correct, then moves like $60K are not the end of the pain; they are part of the process.
The market doesn’t just need to erase price — it needs time to erase hope.
The key takeaway remains the same:
The goal is not to predict the exact bottom.
The goal is to be mentally and strategically prepared when conviction is completely gone.
Markets do not bottom when fear is loud.
They bottom when there is no one left to speak.
If this cycle follows the same path, the real accumulation phase will not feel exciting — it will feel pointless.
And that is usually when long-term wealth is built, quietly.
Final Note:
Avoid investing in weak or hype-driven alt tokens. In uncertain market conditions, focusing on strong, high-quality coins is a far better option.
#BTC #BitcoinCycle #BTC60K #CryptoMarket

This is a brief follow-up to my earlier view that Bitcoin could form a cycle low near $25,000 around 2026.
Since that analysis, $BTC has retraced to the $60K zone, which many are already interpreting as capitulation.
Price has pulled back significantly, sentiment flipped bearish almost overnight, and the narrative shifted from “new all-time highs” to “the cycle is broken” at lightning speed.
Structurally, however, this move doesn’t weaken the thesis—it actually aligns with it.
Historically, true cycle bottoms don’t occur during the first wave of downside. They emerge much later, after:
Several failed recovery attemptsExtended periods of boredom and compressed volatilityFalling volume and fading participationA dominant belief that “crypto is finished”
What we’re seeing now resembles early-to-mid cycle compression, not final capitulation. Fast sell-offs are painful, but genuine bear market lows are slow, grinding, and emotionally draining. They don’t arrive with panic—they arrive with indifference.
If the framework pointing toward a 2026 bottom near $25K is even broadly accurate, then levels like $60K are not the conclusion of downside—they’re part of the process that resets expectations. Markets need time to erase optimism, not just price.
The core takeaway remains the same:
The real edge isn’t calling the exact bottom.
It’s being mentally and strategically prepared to act when conviction disappears.
Markets don’t bottom when fear is loud.
They bottom when no one cares anymore.
If this cycle plays out similarly, the true accumulation phase won’t feel exciting—it will feel pointless.
And that’s usually when long-term wealth is built… quietly.
#BTC #BitcoinCycle #Marketstructure #CryptoPsychology #Bitcoinprice

$BTC This is a quick follow-up to my earlier outlook that pointed toward a potential Bitcoin cycle low near $25,000 in 2026.
Since then, $BTC has sold off into the $60K zone, and for many traders, this already feels like full-blown capitulation.
Price is down hard.
Sentiment flipped bearish almost overnight.
The narrative shifted fast from “new highs incoming” to “this cycle is broken.”
But structurally, nothing here breaks the thesis — it actually aligns with it.
Historically, true cycle bottoms don’t form during the first wave of pain. They appear much later, after the market has gone through:
• Multiple failed relief rallies
• Long periods of sideways boredom
• Shrinking volume and participation
• A general belief that “crypto is dead”
What we’re seeing now looks more like early-to-mid cycle compression, not final exhaustion.
Fast drops hurt, but real bear market lows are different. They’re slow, grinding, and emotionally draining. They don’t arrive with panic — they arrive with apathy.
If the 2026 ~$25K model is even roughly accurate, then moves like $60K aren’t the end of pain. They’re part of the process that resets expectations. Markets need time to erase hope — not just price.
The takeaway remains the same:
The edge is never about calling the exact bottom.
It’s about being mentally and strategically ready when conviction disappears.
Markets don’t bottom when fear is loud.
They bottom when no one cares anymore.
If this cycle plays out the same way, the real accumulation phase won’t feel exciting — it’ll feel pointless.
And that’s usually when long-term wealth is built… quietly$BTC
#BTC #BitcoinCycle #BTC60K #CryptoMarkets #MarketPsychology

Înțelegerea ciclului evolutiv de patru ani al Bitcoin într-o piață în maturare

„În 2026, Bitcoin intră într-o fază de ciclu moderat în care capitalul instituțional oferă o ofertă constantă, chiar și atunci când deținătorii pe termen lung distribuie oferta—creând un echilibru prelungit între acumulare și distribuție, mai degrabă decât un colaps tradițional al pieței urșilor.”
Introducere: Un ciclu care s-a îndoit, dar nu s-a rupt
Ciclul de patru ani al Bitcoin a servit mult timp ca un cadru structural pentru participanții la piață. Ancorat la programul de reducere a recompenselor protocolului, acest ciclu a livrat istoric un raliu puternic după reducere, urmat de o corecție ascuțită și o piață bear prelungită.

La începutul anului 2026, lumea crypto asistă la o schimbare ideologică fascinantă. Murphy, un lider de opinie proeminent (KOL), a aprins recent o dezbatere masivă pe X contestând credința rigidă în "Ciclul de Patru Ani" al Bitcoin-ului.
Punctul de vedere al lui Murphy nu se referă doar la cifre; este vorba despre psihologie. El susține că, deși ciclul—alimentat în mod tradițional de "Halving" în fiecare patru ani—este un cadru analitic util, nu este deloc o lege a naturii. În schimb, el îndeamnă traderii să se uite la Sentimentul Pieței și Datele Comportamentale ca la adevăratele volane de direcție ale acțiunii de preț din 2026.