The Crypto Economist with Memes

JPMorgan says bitcoin futures oversold as silver flips overbought, sees $8,500 gold long term
Courtesy By Yogita Khatri
#GoldvsSilvervsBitcoin
#JPMorganCryptoWarning $BTC
JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin futures appear oversold while gold and silver futures have moved into overbought territory, as investors increasingly favor precious metals over bitcoin across both retail and institutional channels.

Retail investors embraced the so-called “debasement trade” for much of 2025, buying both bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds, but that trend shifted around August, when cumulative bitcoin ETF flows stagnated and then declined in the fourth quarter, the JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said in a Wednesday report.

Over the same period, gold ETF inflows increased sharply and ended the year with close to $60 billion in cumulative inflows, the analysts noted. Most inflows into silver ETFs also occurred in the final quarter of 2025, coinciding with bitcoin ETF outflows, suggesting a rotation by retail investors away from bitcoin toward precious metals, the analysts added.

Institutional behavior has reinforced that shift, according to the analysts. JPMorgan’s proxy for institutional futures positioning — based on changes in CME futures open interest — shows a sharp increase in long positioning in silver during the last quarter of 2025 and into early 2026, driven largely by hedge funds. A similar buildup has been observed in gold futures over most of the past year.

In contrast, the analysts said bitcoin futures positioning has not seen a comparable increase over the past year.

Momentum indicators, which the analysts use as a proxy for positioning by trend-following traders such as commodity trading advisers, show a clear divergence across the three assets. Gold futures are overbought, while silver futures are currently very overbought, and bitcoin futures are oversold, the analysts said. They added that this positioning raises the risk of near-term profit-taking or mean reversion in gold and silver.
Indeed, since the report was published, both silver and gold have pulled back from recent highs.
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare

Pakistānas zīmols Maria B ienāk Bangladešā kā pirmais starptautiskais sieviešu zīmols
#MariaB
#Bangladeshi🇧🇩
Maria Butt, Pakistānas modes nama Maria B dibinātāja, runā ar medijiem zīmola pirmā veikala atklāšanas laikā Daka, Bangladešā, 2026. gada 20. janvārī. (Maria B)
Globālie zīmoli ražo apģērbus Bangladešā, bet tiem nav oficiālu veikalu
Pirms Maria B Junaid Jamshed ģimenes modes zīmols atvēra veikalu Daka
#BinanceSquareTalks
DHAKA: Pakistānas zīmols Maria B, kas šonedēļ atvēra savu pirmo filiāli Daka, ir kļuvis par pirmo starptautisko sieviešu apģērbu zīmolu, kas izveidojis klātbūtni Bangladešā, valstī, kas ražo daudzus pasaules apģērbus, bet trūkst ārzemju mazumtirgotāju.

Europeans have trillions of dollars worth of leverage on the U.S. economy. They're not likely to use it.#WEFDavos2026
$2Z $SENT
A selloff of Treasurys would hurt the U.S. economy. But it would hurt the Eurozone, too.
courtesy by:
Greenlandby Sabri Ben-Achour
At the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump switched gears Wednesday and said he doesn't want to use force to acquire Greenland. But he left a lot of questions unanswered, too.
Europe has been thinking about a whole bunch of ways that it might be able to retaliate against American aggression, including, potentially, selling off some of the trillions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasurys held by Europe's central banks and its private sector.
Europeans own at least $8 trillion worth of U.S. Treasurys. Selling them off would make it harder and more expensive for the U.S. to borrow money to fund all its spending.
There is, however, a problem.
“These assets are not help predominately by European governments, they’re held by private investors,” said Josh Lipsky, international economics chair at the Atlantic Council.
He said European governments don’t have a quick way of forcing private investors to sell their Treasurys. 
Then, there’s another, minor issue.
“It would not be in Europe’s own economic interest to do something like this,” said Daniel McDowell, a political science and international affairs professor at Syracuse University.
#TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat
U.S. Treasurys back a lot of financial instruments around the world.
“Any mass sale of Treasurys like that would likely cause severe disruptions that not only impact the U.S., it would also impact European banks and the entire global economy,” McDowell said.
#usa
And, on top of that, a lot of Europeans would lose a lot of money because it’d basically be a mega-flash sale of U.S. Treasurys.
“When everybody is going through the exit door at the same time, it’s impossible to get out and you’re gonna have to lose a lot in value if you’re trying to all sell at the same time,” said Luis Alvarado, global fixed income strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
#economy
Plus, this would mess with currency markets — make the Euro appreciate and European goods more expensive. 
But on the other hand, money isn’t everything.
“I think we’re well past the point where considerations have to be only a financial and economic nature without consideration of national security,” said Nicolas Veron, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
So let’s say Europe did decide to burn it all down and force a sell off of Treasurys. Where would it put all that money?
There isn’t an alternative, said McDowell at Syracuse.
“There’s no other market capable of absorbing that much capital in a short time without major disruptions,” he said.
And if European investors, like all investors, want to be where the money is? That leads right back to the U.S.
“The U.S. is the center of AI, we have superior growth track, superior productivity,” said John Canally, chief portfolio strategist at TIAA Wealth Management.
There are lots of other pain points Europe could hit before selling off Treasurys — tariffs, going after U.S. tech companies. So an official move to unload U.S. debt looks unlikely.
What we might see though, said the Atlantic Council’s Josh Lipsky, is an unofficial, gradual, organic backing away from that debt.
“There is a move out there and I think it was already underway before what happened in the past week, to find alternatives to diversify your portfolio,” he said.
Not a wave or a catastrophe, just a gradual waning of U.S. financial importance.