### 💡 Why This Matters for Crypto: - **“Sticky inflation”** signals the Fed may delay rate cuts — bad news for risk assets like BTC/ETH - Crypto markets are now **highly sensitive to U.S. macro data** — especially CPI, PCE, and employment - **Leverage-heavy positions** are vulnerable during macro shocks — liquidations spiked 12% after CPI release (per Binance Futures data)
## 🧠 Strategic Takeaways for Crypto Traders
### 1. **Avoid Over-Leverage During High-Impact Events** - CPI releases often trigger **$500M+ in liquidations** within minutes - Use **Binance Liquidation Heatmap** to monitor vulnerable zones ### 2. **Watch Funding Rates Before Major Data Drops** - If funding is **persistently positive** before CPI → high long concentration → higher liquidation risk ### 3. **Hedge with Stablecoin or Options During Uncertainty** - Example: Buy **BTC put options** or hold **USDT/USDC** ahead of major U.S. data releases
### 4. **Monitor Bond Yields as a Leading Indicator** - Rising U.S. Treasury yields → stronger dollar → crypto under pressure - Track **Binance’s Yield Dashboard** or use external tools like TradingView + bond data overlays
✅ Final Tip: Set Alerts, Not Just Orders Use **Binance’s Economic Calendar Alerts** or apps like **Trading Economics / Tradays** to get notified 1 hour before major releases.
> “Crypto doesn’t trade in a vacuum — it trades against the U.S. dollar, bonds, and Fed policy. Master the macro, master your portfolio.”
Vadošā tirgus stāsts ir Stagflācija 2.0. izaugsme stāv pie 1,9%, kamēr CPI paliek pie 2,9% kvēpu pārneses un fiskālās atslābšanas dēļ no Viens liels skaistais likuma aktu (OBBBA) pasākumiem. Tirdzniecības dalībnieki iekļauj Federal Reserve, kas ir ieslodzīts starp palēnināto darba tirgu (4,6% bezdarba līmenis) un cietao inflāciju. Kriptovalūtas cenas Pirmā reakcija: BTC un ETH palielināsies. Tirgi tiks tulkotās februāra nodokļu samazinājumā un deregulācijas vidi kā masīvu likviditātes ieviešanu, pārvarot tūlītējās inflācijas bažas.
3 lietas, ko uzraudzīt, kamēr tirgi guļ (bet pasaule nē)
⚫ Nedēļas nogales vērošanas saraksts — 2026. gada 24.–25. janvāris
Tirgus var būt kluss, bet makro un uz ķēdes balstītie signāli nekad nebeidzas. Šeit ir jūsu kodolīgs, augsta signāla vērošanas saraksts nedēļas nogalei:
1. 🌍 Makro notikums: Japānas CPI izlaidums (Svētdien, 26. janvārī plkst. 23:50 UTC)** **Kāpēc tas ir svarīgi**: Japānas inflācija ir bijusi noturīgi virs 2% jau 8 mēnešus pēc kārtas. Ja **pamat CPI (bez svaigiem produktiem)** nāk klāt karsts (>2.4% gada)**, BOJ var beidzot norādīt uz negatīvo procentu likmju beigām—izraisot **masveida JPY carry tirdzniecības atcelšanu**.
Krypto tilts uz tradicionālajiem tirgiem kļūst stiprāks: Domas par Nasdaq un CME partnerību
Krypto tilts uz tradicionālajiem tirgiem kļūst stiprāks: Domas par Nasdaq un CME partnerību
2026. gada 24. janvāris · 5 minūtes lasīšanai Reizēm investīciju jomā notiek evolūcijas lēciens. Šodienas oficiālā Nasdaq Crypto™ indeksa pārrebranding uz Nasdaq CME Crypto™ indeksu iezīmē tādu nozīmīgu notikumu kripto investoriem—vienu, kas, mūsuprāt, mainīs to, kā institūcijas domā par kripto alokācijām. Šis nostiprinātais pamatindekss svin uzticamu partnerību starp Nasdaq un derivatīvu finanšu pakalpojumu gigantu Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group.
Vollstrītas Riks Rīders, iespējams, iegūst pamatu Trampa medībās pēc jauna Fed priekšsēdētāja
Galvenie pretendenti uz amatu Kevins Varšs: Bijušais Fed gubernators (2006–2011), kuru prognožu tirgi pašlaik uzskata par galveno favorītu. Riks Rīders: Globālās fiksētās ienākumu investīciju galvenais darbinieks BlackRock, kura kandidatūra nesen ir ieguvusi ievērojamu atbalstu. Kevins Hasets: Nacionālā ekonomikas padomes direktors un ilggadējs Trampa ekonomiskais padomnieks. Kristofers Valers: Pašreizējais Fed gubernators, kurš tikās ar Trampu intervijai 2025. gada beigās. Vašingtona Meklēšana pēc aizvietotāja Federālās rezervju sistēmas priekšsēdētāja Džeroma Pauela ir ieguvusi vēl vienu pavērsienu, ar tumšo zirdziņu, kas iegūst momentum: BlackRock's Riks Rīders.
Stabilā coin depeg riski pieaug ēnu banku stresa apstākļos
🔴 Piektdiena — 2026. gada 23. janvāris
Klusa spiediena veidošanās zem USDT un USDC Stabilie coin izskatās mierīgi virspusē — bet zem tā, likviditātes buferi kļūst plānāki. Kamēr visi koncentrējas uz Bitcoin ETF plūsmām un Feda pagriezieniem, ārvalstu dolāru finansēšanas tirgi kļūst saspringtāki. Galvenais signāls? Valūtu maiņas swap bāze starp USD un galvenajām EM valūtām (JPY, KRW, BRL) ir paplašinājusies līdz līmeņiem, kādus neesam redzējuši kopš 2023. gada beigām. Kāpēc tas ir svarīgi stabilajiem coin? - USDT ir ļoti atkarīgs no ārvalstu komerciālajiem papīriem un repo tirgiem — īpaši Singapūrā un Kaimanu salās.
Paziņojums par spot tirdzniecības pāru izņemšanu - 2026-01-23
Šis ir vispārējs paziņojums. Produkti un pakalpojumi, uz kuriem šeit atsaucas, var nebūt pieejami jūsu reģionā. Dārgie Binancieši, Lai aizsargātu lietotājus un saglabātu augstas kvalitātes tirdzniecības tirgu, Binance veic periodiskas pārbaudes visiem uzskaitītajiem spot tirdzniecības pāriem, un var izslēgt izvēlētus spot tirdzniecības pārus daudzu faktoru dēļ, piemēram, sliktas likviditātes un tirdzniecības apjoma dēļ. Balstoties uz mūsu jaunākajām atsauksmēm, Binance izņems un pārtrauks tirdzniecību ar šādiem spot tirdzniecības pāriem: 2026-01-23 03:00 (UTC): AI/BTC, ALLO/BNB, APE/BTC, AUCTION/BTC, BOME/FDUSD, DYDX/FDUSD, ENA/BNB, FIL/ETH, ID/BTC, KITE/BNB, LDO/BTC, LRC/ETH, NMR/BTC, PENGU/FDUSD, PNUT/BTC, PYR/BTC, STRK/FDUSD, XVG/ETH, YFI/BTC un ZIL/ETH
The RWA Illusion: Why “Tokenized Treasuries” Aren’t as Decentralized as You Think
BlackRock’s BUIDL. Franklin Templeton’s ETH ETF. Ondo’s USDY. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries are the hottest narrative of 2026—and for good reason: **real yield, on-chain, 24/7**.
But there’s a critical flaw most investors ignore: **Custody isn’t decentralized. It’s concentrated—and legally fragile.**
🔍 The Custody Reality Check All major RWA protocols rely on **a single custodian**: **Anchorage Digital** (now a federally chartered bank). - BlackRock’s BUIDL? Anchorage. - Franklin’s tokenized funds? Anchorage. - Even MakerDAO’s $1.2B Treasury? Anchorage.
That means: ✅ Your yield is real ❌ But your asset is **legally owned by a centralized entity**—not held in a smart contract
If Anchorage faces regulatory action, capital controls, or even a compliance freeze (like Silvergate in 2023), **redemption could halt overnight**—even if the underlying Treasuries are untouched.
⚖️ The Legal Risk No One Talks About U.S. Treasuries are **bearer instruments**—but only if you hold the physical certificate or use a qualified DTC participant. Tokenized versions are **IOUs**, not direct ownership. In a crisis, courts may side with traditional finance—not DeFi users.
Remember: > “Code is law” doesn’t apply when **sovereign regulators say otherwise**.
🛡️ How to Mitigate This Risk 1. **Diversify RWA exposure**: Don’t put all stable yield into one protocol 2. **Monitor custody disclosures**: If a project won’t name its custodian, walk away 3. **Prefer over-collateralized models**: e.g., protocols using ETH as backstop + Treasuries
This isn’t FUD. It’s **due diligence** in a market racing toward institutional adoption—without institutional safeguards.
🗳️ **POLL**: Would you still hold tokenized Treasuries if redemption required KYC? A) Yes—yield is worth it B) No—I’d move to pure DeFi alternatives C) Only if backed by multiple custodians D) I avoid RWAs entirely
👇 **Is RWA the future—or a Trojan horse for centralization? Let’s debate below.** ➡️ *Follow me for “Risk Radar Fridays”—next week: “The Stablecoin Trilemma: Why FDUSD’s Growth Is a Double-Edged Sword.”*
CZ Binance Square AMA atkārtojums: Bitcoin 200 000 USD, altkoinu sezona, meme monetu un padomi sākumā
Pēdējā AMA tiešraides straumē Binance Square, Binance līdzizveidotājs un bijušais prezidents Changpeng Zhao (CZ) dalījās plašām viedokļiem par Bitcoin ilgtermiņa izskatu, altkoinu sezonu, meme monetu, tirdzniecības riskiem un kriptovalūtu sociālo platformu evolūciju.Zemē ir pilnīgs atkārtojums par galvenajiem ieguvumiem.1. CZ brīdina pret meme monetu izlaišanu, pamatojoties uz viņa X vai Binance Square publicējumiemCZ brīdināja lietotājus, lai neizmantotu viņa vai Yi He sociālo tīklu publicējumus kā pamatu meme monetu izveidei.Viņš teica, ka šādi projekti ir ļoti mazas iespējas veiksmīgi, ar neskaidriem izcelsmes avotiem un augstu neveiksmes risku, un ieteica lietotājiem neuzskatīt, ka tās ir atbalstītas tikai tāpēc, ka tās ir minētas vai publicētas neformāli.
Stabilo valūtu piedāvājuma attiecība (SSR) tikko atdeva stiprāko signālu kopš 2024. gada — šeit ir tā nozīme
Vairums tirgotāju uzrauga BTC cenu. Inteliģentā nauda uzrauga likviditāti. Un pašlaik kritiska tīkla metrika — stabilo valūtu piedāvājuma attiecība (SSR) — atrodas retā pozitīvā signālā, ko nav redzēts kopš 2024. gada augšupvēršanās
🔢 Kas ir SSR? SSR = Bitcoin tirgus kapitalizācija ÷ kopējā stabilo valūtu piedāvājums - Augsts SSR = Pārāk daudz BTC, kas meklē pārāk maz stabilo valūtu likviditāti → uzmanība - Zems SSR = Ievērojams stabilo valūtu Pēc 2026. gada 15. janvāra: - BTC tirgus kapitalizācija: 1,32 triljoni USD - Kopējais stabilo valūtu piedāvājums (USDT + USDC + DAI + FDUSD): 189 miljardi USD
**China Isn’t Collapsing—It’s Rewiring the Global Economy from Within**
[Crypto Edge] *January 14, 2026 | Global Macro Brief*
You’ve probably seen it: > “CHINA JUST BROKE THE GLOBAL MARKET!!” > “$48 TRILLION PRINTED—COMMODITY APOCALYPSE IMMINENT!” > “Western banks short 550% of global silver supply—IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER!” Sounds terrifying. Feels urgent. But it’s mostly **noise**—amplified by algorithms, recycled memes, and a deep misunderstanding of how China actually works. Let’s reset with facts.
🔢 1. China’s M2 Is Huge—But Not What You Think Yes, China’s M2 money supply hit **¥310 trillion RMB** (≈ **$43.2 trillion USD**) by December 2025 ([PBoC](https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/)). That’s **more than double** the U.S. M2 of **$20.9 trillion** ([Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)).
🚨 *Alarming?* Only if you ignore context. In the U.S., capital flows through stock markets, bonds, and venture capital. In China, **everything runs through banks**. M2 includes corporate deposits, local government financing vehicles, and even idle savings from households wary of property markets. > 💡 **Key insight**: China’s M2 has always been inflated by design. It’s not “printed cash”—it’s a reflection of a **bank-dominated financial system**. And growth is actually *slowing*: M2 expanded just **7.2% YoY in 2025**, down from double digits in 2020–2022.
🏗️ 2. Is China Hoarding Commodities?
Partly—but not in a panic. - **Gold**: China added **331 tonnes** since November 2022, now holding **2,279t** ([World Gold Council](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-gold-reserves)). That’s strategic—but still less than half of U.S. reserves (8,133t). - **Copper**: Imports fell **3.2% YoY in 2025** ([China Customs](http://english.customs.gov.cn/))—a sign of weak construction demand, not hoarding. - **Lithium & Cobalt**: China doesn’t just buy—it *controls processing*. It refines **~70% of global lithium** and **60% of cobalt** This isn’t “printing yuan to buy metal.” It’s **vertical integration**—securing supply chains for EVs, solar panels, and defense tech. 🥈 3. The “4.4 Billion Ounce Silver Short” Is a Myth One viral claim insists Western banks are short **4.4 billion ounces of silver**—over **550% of annual mine supply** (~850M oz, per [Silver Institute]
**This is false.** Reality: - Total COMEX silver futures open interest: ~**180,000 contracts** = **900 million oz** *notional value* - Actual short positions? Likely **under 200 million oz** across all instruments (futures + OTC). - Physical delivery is rare: **<1%** of contracts result in metal exchnge. Markets don’t collapse because shorts exceed annual flow. They adjust via **price, recycling (200M+ oz/year), and paper settlement**.
> 🚫 The “mathematically impossible squeeze” is a **decades-old myth**—repeated in 2011, 2019, and now 2026. 🌍 4. The Real Game: De-Dollarization Here’s where China *is* making bold moves: - **U.S. Treasury holdings**: Down from **$1.3T (2013)** to **$760B (Nov 2025)** - **RMB trade settlement**: Over **50% of China’s trade** now uses yuan—up from 15% in 2015 - **CIPS (China’s SWIFT alternative)**: Transaction volume up **45% YoY** in 2025. This isn’t about “dumping Treasuries tomorrow.” It’s about **building alternatives**—so China can’t be financially strangled in a crisis. 🧭 Two Visions of Economic Power
**The West** | Faith in markets, liquidity, and financial innovation | Faith in physical control, industrial policy, and state coordination | **China** | Wealth = stocks, bonds, derivatives | Wealth = mines, refineries, ports, and long-term resource contracts |
Neither is perfect. The U.S. faces political gridlock and eroding trust. China battles deflation, aging demographics, and tech bottlenecks. But as global confidence in **unbacked fiat** wavers—amid $37T U.S. debt, persistent inflation, and geopolitical fractures—the side that controls **real inputs** gains leverage.
✅ The Bottom Line - China’s economy is **slowing**, not collapsing. - Its M2 is large but **structurally normal**. - It’s securing commodities **strategically**, not frantically. - The “silver short apocalypse” is **fiction**. - And yes—China is **quietly decoupling** from dollar hegemony.
This isn’t chaos. It’s **calculated adaptation** in a multipolar world. The winners won’t be those shouting about “trillion-dollar collapses.” They’ll be the ones watching who controls the copper, the cobalt, and the clearing systems—and betting accordingly. #ChinaEconomy #worldmarket #binanxcesquare
Kā 2026. gadā tiek pārdefinēts retums: Jauns spēles plāns Bitcoin, zelta un sudraba lietošanai
Stāsts par „retumu” 2026. gadā piedzīvo pamatmainu. Tā vairs nav tikai par galīgu pieejamību; tā ir par to, kā šis retums darbojas mūsdienu finanšu sistēmā, kas veidota stāstu, tirgus piekļuves un uzticamības ietekmē. Tirgus neatrod vienu uzvarētāju, bet piešķir atšķirīgas lomas Bitcoin, zelta un sudraba .
📜 Nekustamās vērtības pārvērtēšana: Ģenerētājs
Nekustamās vērtības vērtība tagad tiek novērtēta caur trim aspektiem:
· Uzticamība: Vai ir uzticams retuma mehānisms? (Kods pret ģeoloģiju pret rūpniecisko pieprasījumu)
Binance launches TradFi perpetual contracts, starting with gold and silver
Key Takeaways •Binance introduces TradFi perpetual contracts for 24/7 trading. •These contracts allow trading 24/7, providing exposure to traditional markets with the flexibility of crypto trading terms.
Binance is expanding its futures ecosystem with the launch of TradFi Perpetual Contracts, offering seamless, 24/7 access to traditional markets through USDT-settled perpetual futures.
Starting with Gold (XAUUSDT) and Silver (XAGUSDT), users can trade without expiry dates, hedge portfolios, diversify exposure, and amplify returns with leverage.
These contracts operate with a robust pricing and risk management model and are traded on FSRA-regulated infrastructure, reinforcing Binance’s leadership under the ADGM regulatory framework.
*Nafta kā tirgus veidotājs: ASV enerģētikas dominēšanas celšanās*
Pēdējās divdesmit gados ASV ir piedzīvojusi dramatisku pārveidojumu savā lomā globālajos enerģijas tirgos. Agrāk kā tīrs importētājs, kas bija atkarīgs no ārvalstu naftas—īpaši no Austrumiem—ASV ir kļuvusi par pasaules lielāko brūno naftas ražotāju un būtisku "tirgus veidotāju" globālajās enerģijas dinamikās. Šis pārveidojums ir bijis galvenokārt izraisīts šaleļu revolūcijas dēļ, izstrādes tehnoloģiju uzlabojumiem un stratēģiskām politiskām lēmumiem, kas pārveidojušas ģeopolitiskās savienības, globālos tirdzniecības plūsmas un enerģijas drošības paradigmas.
Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $92,000 level after spending several days trapped below $90,000, offering a brief sense of relief to a market that has remained under pressure since late 2025. The rebound has helped stabilize short-term sentiment, but confidence remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that 2026 could evolve into a broader bear market, citing weak spot demand, fading momentum, and persistent sell-side activity from larger participants. On-chain behavior offers a more precise lens. Exchange Netflow data is especially relevant during periods of geopolitical stress, as it reflects whether holders are preparing to sell or choosing to stay sidelined. When fear dominates, exchange inflows typically surge as participants move coins onto platforms. Conversely, muted inflows or continued outflows suggest that investors are not rushing to reduce exposure, even amid unsettling headlines.
Exchange Netflows Suggest Caution, Not Panic The analysis places the current geopolitical headlines into a broader historical context. During past military conflicts—most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and more recent flare-ups in the Middle East—Bitcoin often experienced sharp but short-lived price volatility. However, on-chain data told a calmer story. Exchange Netflow, which captures whether coins are being moved onto exchanges to sell or withdrawn for holding, rarely deteriorated in a sustained way during those events. Since 2023, the market has shown a growing ability to absorb localized geopolitical shocks without triggering widespread liquidation behavior.
The situation surrounding Venezuela appears consistent with that pattern. While headlines have introduced uncertainty and contributed to short-term price sensitivity, there is no meaningful surge of Bitcoin moving onto exchanges. The absence of elevated inflows suggests that investors are not reacting with panic. Instead, the market seems to be monitoring developments while maintaining existing exposure.
Historically, Bitcoin’s more pronounced on-chain reactions have been tied to structural economic threats rather than isolated military actions. Events such as US–China trade tensions, aggressive regulatory shifts, or capital control measures tend to impact global liquidity and investor freedom more directly, leaving clearer footprints in exchange flows.
At this stage, the Venezuela narrative has not crossed into that category. Exchange Netflow behavior indicates a market on alert, but not in retreat. #VenezuelaNews #USChinaTradeagreement
The dominant market narrative is Volatility Exhaustion. BTC/USDT is currently trading at $91,100, down 2.58% in the last 24 hours, struggling to hold the $91k psychological floor. The Supertrend is flashing a definitive sell signal at $92,731.40, indicating that any minor bounce is currently being sold into by smart money. Crypto Price Action First Reaction: BTC will likely test the recent wick low of $90,675.52. With the RSI(9) sitting at 33.27, we are approaching oversold territory, but the downward momentum remains heavy. Second Reaction: A trap bounce. Expect a fake recovery toward $92,000 to lure in "dip buyers" before a final flush toward the $89k-90k liquidity zone. #BtcLiquidation #ETHWhaleWatch $BTC $ETH
Tirgus izredzes: Šķīdēja paradīze Dominējošā tirgus stāsts ir volatilitātes izsīkums. BTC/USDT pašlaik tirdzniekojas par 91 000 USD, samazinoties pēdējās 24 stundās, cīnoties saglabāt psiholoģisko 91 000 USD grīdu. Uzrāda noteicošu pārdotās signālu, norādot, ka jebkāds mazs atgriešanās punkts tiek šobrīd pārdots ar gudrām naudas plūsmām.
Kriptovalūtas cenas kustības BTC tuvojas pārāk zemām vērtībām, taču lejupvērstā kustība paliek stipra
Trapu atgriešanās. Ekspektējiet mānīgu atgriešanos uz 92 000 USD, lai pievilinātu "dip buyer" pirms galīgās iztukšošanas uz likviditātes zonu.
ASV datu kvalitāte klusi deteriorē. Kriptovalūtas reaģēs skaļi
Makroekonomiskā attēla kvalitāte tikai vēl vairāk samazinājās. Tirdzniecības bilance atkal paplašinās, kamēr eksports paliek nemainīgs, bet imporrs paliek augsts. ASV patērē vairāk, nekā ražo. Tas nav stiprums. Tas ir pieprasījuma stresis.
Produktivitāte tikai uzrādīja 4,2%. Uz pirmo aci tas izskatās pozitīvi. Tomēr tā nav. Produktivitātes pieaugums vienlaikus ar vienības darba izmaksu pieaugumu līdz 1,6% nozīmē, ka uzņēmumiem izdodas iegūt vairāk produktivitātes no tā paša darba spēka bez atvieglotām darba samaksas spiedieniem. Margi paliek apgrūtināti. Inflācija nepazūd.
Patiesais signāls ir darba tirgū. Sākotnējie bezdarba pieteikumi tikai pieauga līdz 226K no 199K. Turpināmās pieteikumu skaita pieaugums sasniedza 1,897 miljoniem. Darba tirgus sāk plaisāt, bet ne sabrukt. Tas ir tieši tāds vide, ko tirgi nepareizi novērtē: augošs izaugsmes bailes, kamēr inflācijas spiediens nepazūd.
This depiction captures a common narrative in finance: Bitcoin as the "digital gold" challenger to traditional gold, but with amplified upsides and downsides. To evaluate this fairly, I'll break it down using key metrics like growth, volatility, stability, and other factors, backed by historical data from January 2016 to January 2026 (a 10-year period where reliable daily price data overlaps). Current prices as of January 7, 2026: Bitcoin at $91,009.38 USD, Gold at $4,456.13 USD per troy ounce. 1. Growth (Returns) Bitcoin's Strength: BTC has demonstrated explosive growth, far outpacing gold. Over the past decade, it delivered a total return of 21,235.16%—turning a $100 investment into about $21,335. This stems from its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, increasing institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024), and its role in emerging tech like DeFi and NFTs. Events like the 2020-2021 bull run, driven by pandemic stimulus and corporate buys (e.g., Tesla, MicroStrategy), exemplify this potential. Gold's Lag: Gold returned 319.2% over the same period—a solid but modest gain, turning $100 into $419. It's influenced by inflation, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying, but lacks BTC's speculative fervor. For instance, gold surged during the 2022-2023 inflation spike but didn't match BTC's multiples. Argument: The image's "growth" label for BTC is spot-on; it's a growth engine for risk-tolerant investors. Gold "lags" in raw returns but provides consistent appreciation tied to real-world economics, not hype cycles.
2. Volatility Bitcoin's Drawback: With an annualized volatility of 62.76%, BTC experiences wild swings—e.g., dropping over 50% in 2018, 2022 bear markets tied to regulatory fears and macro events like FTX collapse. This makes it unsuitable for short-term stability. Gold's Strength: At 13.23% volatility, gold is far steadier, often moving <1% daily. It shines during crises (e.g., COVID-19 in 2020) as a safe haven, with price tied to physical demand from jewelry, tech, and reserves. Argument: The image accurately highlights BTC's volatility as a trade-off for growth, while gold's stability makes it a portfolio anchor. However, BTC's volatility has decreased over time with maturation, though it remains higher than gold's. 3. Stability and Other Factors Bitcoin: As a digital asset, it's borderless, divisible, and transferable 24/7, but faces risks like hacks, bans (e.g., in China), and energy concerns. It's not "laggy" but innovative—yet unproven over centuries. Gold: Tangible and scarce, with 5,000+ years as money. It's stable but "lags" in portability (physical storage costs) and yield (no dividends). Central banks hold trillions in gold reserves, underscoring its reliability. Shared Traits: Both are inflation hedges with limited supply, non-correlated to stocks often, and seen as alternatives to fiat currencies amid debt crises. Argument: Gold's "stability" is rooted in history and tangibility, while BTC's "volatility" comes from its youth (launched 2009). But calling gold a "lag" overlooks its role in diversification—portfolios with both often outperform single-asset ones. Conclusion The image effectively illustrates the core trade-off: Bitcoin offers transformative growth potential at the cost of high volatility, while gold provides time-tested stability with more modest returns. Based on the data, this holds true—BTC has crushed gold in growth but with stomach-churning risks. For investors, the choice (or blend) depends on goals: aggressive portfolios might favor BTC for its upside in a digital economy, while conservative ones stick with gold for preservation. In 2026's uncertain world—with AI, geopolitics, and inflation—diversifying into both could be the smartest play, as neither is a perfect "store of value" alone. If you're considering investment, factor in your risk tolerance and consult a financial advisor. #BTC #XAU $BTC #XAUUSDT
Institutions Forecast U.S. December ADP Employment Data Ahead of Release
Market participants are closely watching the U.S. December ADP private-sector employment report, scheduled for release today at 21:15, as institutions publish a wide range of forecasts following a sharp contraction in the previous reading. The prior ADP report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, underscoring late-year labor market softness. Current institutional projections point to a return to job growth, though estimates vary significantly. Forecasts by institution Low-end estimates Spartan Securities: +16K Sumitomo Mitsui: +34K Zürcher Kantonalbank: +40K DZ Bank: +40K Mid-range estimates Allied Irish Banks: +45K Scotiabank: +45K Pantheon Macroeconomics: +45K PNC Group: +48K Upper-range estimates Deutsche Bank: +50K Goldman Sachs: +55K Bank of Montreal: +56K TD Securities: +60K High-end estimates BNP Paribas: +70K Helaba: +75K Mizuho Bank: +80K Market context The ADP employment report is often viewed as an early signal ahead of the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, though its predictive reliability has been inconsistent in recent months. Still, the data can influence short-term market expectations around labor market momentum, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy. The wide dispersion in forecasts reflects uncertainty over year-end hiring trends, seasonal adjustments, and the broader trajectory of U.S. economic growth heading into 2026. The release will be closely monitored across rates, FX, equities, and crypto markets for any deviation from expectations that could reshape near-term risk sentiment. #USJobsData #ADPJobsData
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