EmaanTravelConsultant

Talk of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 picked up steam this week after comments from former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, adding fuel to an already bullish narrative across crypto. Optimism is growing — but not everyone is convinced the path forward is straight up.
A more cautious view came from well-known analyst Ali Martinez, who pushed back on X with a notably bearish take. In a post dated January 25, he sarcastically noted that “the super cycle is super cycling,” before outlining a scenario where Bitcoin could face a deep retracement, potentially falling into the $31,000–$32,000 range in 2026.
Martinez’s argument is rooted in price fractals — repeating patterns that tend to show up across market cycles. He points out that Bitcoin’s current structure closely mirrors the 2021–2022 cycle. Back then, BTC topped near $67,000, dropped roughly 55% into the low $30,000s, briefly pushed to new highs around $69,000, and then rolled into a prolonged bear market that ultimately bottomed near $15,500.
According to Martinez, Bitcoin may now be echoing that same behavior. From its recent all-time high around $126,000, BTC has already pulled back more than 32%. He views this as a potential early phase of a broader corrective structure, similar to 2022 — though likely with a higher floor this time. His projected downside target near $31,800 would still represent a sharp 65% drawdown from current levels.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $79,000. While supercycle narratives continue to gain traction, Martinez’s perspective is a reminder that historical patterns still matter, and that the road to long-term expansion may include much deeper volatility before the next sustained leg higher.
In short: optimism is rising — but the market may not be done testing patience yet.