🧠 Market Journal — Where We Are, Not Where We’re Going.
Lately, everything feels heavier.
Global markets aren’t collapsing — but they’re not expanding either.
Growth is slower. Policy is uncertain. Liquidity is selective, not generous.
In the U.S., the economy is sending mixed signals: jobs still exist, but confidence is thinner inflation isn’t exploding, but pressure hasn’t disappeared rate cuts are discussed, not delivered.
That kind of environment doesn’t reward risk-taking. It rewards hesitation.
And crypto feels it immediately.
Bitcoin isn’t reacting to one event. It’s reacting to a world that’s less willing to commit.
Less leverage. Less patience for narratives. Less tolerance for noise.
This doesn’t mean collapse. It means transition.
Markets tend to do this before clarity returns: they move slower they punish impatience they drain emotion before direction
The future here isn’t about predicting a rally or a crash. It’s about understanding that the rules are changing.
Easy money phases are behind us. Selective opportunity phases are ahead.
That doesn’t kill markets. It reshapes who survives in them.
For now, the most important skill isn’t being right early. It’s staying coherent while others rush to conclusions.
No urgency. No hero calls.
Just awareness of where the world — and the market — actually stands.
Ne katra zaudējošā fāze ir kļūda. Dažas fāzes ir filtri.
Tirgus nepārvietojas tikai, lai atlīdzinātu prasmes. Tās pārvietojas, lai novērstu steigu.
Šeit lielākā daļa cilvēku nepareizi interpretē notiekošo:
• Viņi domā, ka viņi neveicas • Viņi domā, ka viņi ir par vēlu • Viņi domā, ka viņiem ir jādara kaut kas Bet bieži vien tirgus vienkārši uzdod vienu jautājumu:
Vai tu vari pastāvēt šeit, nepiespiežot iznākumu?
Ja tu nespēj izturēt neskaidrību, tu nepārdzīvo skaidrību.
MEDĪBA nav par to, lai būt pareizam. Tā ir par to, lai paliktu neskartam pietiekami ilgi, lai tas būtu nozīmīgi.
Price is pressing lower while sell-side flow still dominates. Large and medium orders continue to exit → this is distribution pressure, not panic flushing yet.
What structure says:
• Price is trading below short-term MAs • RSI is weak → momentum favors sellers, but not exhaustion • Bounces so far are reactive, not defended • No clear acceptance above reclaim levels yet
What this phase usually does:
• Grinds • Traps early longs • Bleeds patience, not accounts (unless forced)
What to expect (not a prediction):
• Either a deeper liquidity sweep to force capitulation • Or sideways compression until participation dries up
Both outcomes punish impatience.
This is not a moment for conviction. It’s a moment for observation.
Structure before direction. Survival before action.
BTC is sitting in compression after heavy distribution.
What the data shows:
• Price: Holding around the same zone after a sharp sell-off → no impulsive follow-through.
• Money Flow: - Large & medium flows still net negative → big money continues to offload into strength. - Small flows flat → retail hesitation, no conviction.
• 24h Inflow: Still deeply negative → no real absorption yet.
• Structure (1H): - Lower highs intact - Price capped under key MAs - Current move looks like pause / balance, not reversal.
What this phase usually means:
• Market is resetting positioning, not choosing direction yet. • Shorts are taking profit, longs are not stepping in aggressively. • This is where fake confidence usually appears before the next decision.
Key takeaway: This is not trend continuation speed and not reversal confirmation. It’s a decision zone where patience beats prediction.
• Price broke below short-term structure and is trading under key MAs • RSI deeply oversold → momentum exhausted, not reversed • Open Interest still elevated → positions not flushed • No panic closeout → leverage remains in the system
What this means: This move is distribution under pressure, not capitulation. The market is forcing decisions while keeping participants trapped.
What to watch next: • OI behavior: drop = reset, flat/rising = more pain possible • Reaction at prior demand (≈87.7k–88k zone) • Speed of any bounce — weak bounce = continuation risk
Retail doesn’t lose because of bad entries. Retail loses because it thinks the market cares.
Cares about your bias. Cares about your indicators. Cares about your “perfect setup”.
It doesn’t.
The market is a liquidity machine. Every breakout you chase Every support you trust blindly Every “confirmation” you wait for is someone else’s exit.
Market Makers don’t predict. They engineer reactions.
They push price where: • stops are stacked • emotions peak • conviction feels strongest
Then they reverse it — quietly.
If you’re trading for excitement, you’re food. If you’re trading for certainty, you’re prey. If you’re trading because you need the outcome — you’re already dead money.
HUNT is not about entries. It’s about seeing who is trapped, where, and why.
• Fast downside expansion → stops + forced exits, not organic selling. • Reaction from ~91.8k → liquidity pocket did its job. • Bounce happened without structure reclaim → relief, not control.
What matters now:
• Price still below key intraday MAs → market hasn’t earned strength. • Open Interest rebuilding after the move → new risk entering late. • Long/Short ratio flipping fast → crowd reacting, not positioning early.
Translation: -The hunt phase is not the drop. -The hunt phase is what happens after the drop.
Morning mindset: No bias. No prediction. Just mapping who entered late and where pressure will appear next.
We observe. We log behavior. We let the market show its hand.
Lielākā daļa cilvēku nezaudēja, jo bija stulbi. Viņi zaudēja, jo steidzās izbēgt.
Tirgus jūtās kā durvis. Izbeigšanās veids no spiediena, rutīnas, klusuma, parādiem, laika. Tāpēc katra tirdzniecība nes vairāk nekā risku — tā nes cerību.
Un cerība ir smaga.
Tāpēc disciplīna pārsprāgst. Tāpēc laba loģika neizdodas nepareizajā brīdī. Tāpēc tirgus vienmēr šķiet vienu soli priekšā.
Tirgi nesoda nezināšanu. Viņi soda vajadzību.
Ja jūti steigu, medības jau ir beigušās. Nevis tāpēc, ka tu esi nepareizs — bet tāpēc, ka esi pakļauts.
Izdzīvošana ir pirmajā vietā. Izpratne ir nākamā. Viss pārējais ir troksnis.
Price is holding around 95.3k after a sharp move, but the story isn’t in the candles — it’s in participation.
Open Interest (1H): OI has been bleeding steadily while price holds range. That tells us: → Positions are being closed → Leverage is leaving → This is not aggressive new positioning
This is de-risking, not expansion.
Top Trader Long/Short Ratio: The ratio keeps sliding lower. → More accounts leaning short → Confidence is shifting against price → Crowd positioning is getting heavier on one side
Market makers love this phase.
Price Structure (1H): → Higher low held at ~94.2k → Price reclaimed short-term MAs → No impulsive continuation yet, but no structural breakdown either
This is compression after volatility, not trend exhaustion.
What matters next (not predictions): • Does OI continue to drop while price holds? → absorption • Does price move while OI expands again? → real intent • Does crowd flip aggressively short? → fuel builds
The market isn’t offering answers yet. It’s offering information.
Hunters don’t guess. They watch who commits — and who backs away.