Stop Panic Selling: The Whales are Literally Buying Your Bags Right Nowwww!!!!
$BTC just took a dive to $87,463.50, and while the retail crowd is hitting the panic button, the big players are treating this like a flash sale. We aren't looking at a trend reversal into a bear market; this is a classic distribution phase where risk appetites cool down and weak hands get shaken out. If you’re feeling the heat, take a breath. The long-term bull structure is still very much intact. Here is the breakdown of why this dip is actually a healthy reset for the next leg up. 1. The Great Leverage Flush The market was getting a bit too "foamy." To keep the rally sustainable, the speculators needed to be purged. Massive Liquidations: We saw $684 million wiped out, with roughly 70% of those being long positions.Funding Rates: These have finally returned to normal levels, meaning the "over-leveraged" gamblers have been cleared out.Healthy On-Chain Data: The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is sitting at 0.3534, which tells us that the majority of holders are still in the green—this isn't a catastrophic panic sell. Meanwhile, the MVRV is at 1.547, suggesting Bitcoin is currently trading near its "fair value" rather than being dangerously overheated. 2. Institutional Profit-Taking ≠ "The Exit" Last week saw $1.33 billion in net ETF outflows, including $537 million from IBIT and $451 million from FBTC. On paper, it looks scary. In reality, it’s just professional money management. These institutions bought the October lows and are now locking in some serious gains. It’s not a "collective escape"; it’s a strategic rebalancing after a massive run-up. 3. Macro Noise vs. Reality Everyone is talking about the "Yen intervention" as a crypto-killer. While the Yen carry trade has historically caused ~30% drops in BTC, this time the setup is different. The real macro driver right now is geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening Dollar (DXY), which recently hit a 4-month low. With Gold hitting $5,100, capital is simply rotating into traditional hedges for a moment of safety—it’s not a targeted attack on crypto. 4. Follow the Smart Money (The Whales) While retail is dumping, the whales are accumulating at a pace that should make you pay attention: Large Wallets: Addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have net-purchased approximately 100,000 BTC during this dip.MicroStrategy: Michael Saylor isn't flinching—he just scooped up another 2,932 BTC at an average price of $90,000. The Pattern: Retail sells in fear $\rightarrow$ Whales buy the re-accumulation. This is the textbook "Distribution to Re-accumulation" cycle. 5. The Technical Roadmap Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 support and its 50-day moving average. Technically, this opens the door for a retest of the $79,000 – $80,000 range. However, the RSI is already in oversold territory, and there is plenty of stablecoin "dry powder" sitting on the sidelines ready to buy. The most likely path forward? A bounce back to $92,000 to test the waters before we decide the next major direction. The Bottom Line This is a liquidity reshuffle, not a market funeral. Historically, these "scary" pullbacks are exactly what the market needs before a massive breakout. The biggest risk right now isn't the price dropping to $70,000—it's being on the sidelines when the recovery rally starts. If you’re a long-term player, this is your window to add to positions while the "noise" is at its loudest. The bull isn't dead; it’s just catching its breath.
$BTC briefly tagged $86.5k last night and BRS jumped to 55. The move was fast, but we’re still far from anything close to the 100 extreme.
As long as price holds above $87k, a short-term bounce is still on the table. That said, I’m staying on the sidelines for now. This isn’t an area I’m comfortable entering—whether for a quick trade or adding to spot.
Why I’m Waiting
A few things are keeping me cautious: • Overhead resistance: Price keeps getting rejected around the STH-RP zone. • LTH behavior: Long-term holders are starting to show signs of unease. • Whale activity: Accumulation from larger players has clearly slowed down. #BTC☀️ #BTC
Short answer: No. Everyone’s looking at Multiverse and Retro9000 like they’re printing new tokens, but they aren't. Let’s look under the hood at what’s actually moving the needle. 🧵
First thing: The $290M Multiverse and $40M Retro9000 programs don't add a single new AVAX to the total supply. They are funded entirely by the Foundation’s existing allocation. No "surprise inflation" or extra supply shocks here.
So where is the pressure? It's the pre-set daily linear unlock—100,000 AVAX every single day. That’s caused ~4.17% dilution over the last 6 months. Circulating supply is now at ~524.7M AVAX, roughly 73% of the total.
Price is down ~50% since July ($23.99 to $11.66). But don't blame the supply growth entirely. Most of that hit came from the massive Oct 2025 market liquidation event where everything tanked 40-70%. AVAX just has a high beta and followed the macro bloodbath.
Here’s the "Alpha": Retro9000 is building a burn flywheel. Rewards for devs are literally based on how much AVAX is burned on the C-Chain. Use the app -> burn AVAX -> dev gets paid. It’s a smart way to turn ecosystem activity into a supply sink.
Then there’s the big money staking. To run a subnet, you need 2,000 AVAX per validator. Institutional heavyweights like Galaxy Digital and Aave are already building subnets. This locks up supply for real, high-value usage.
Watch out for March 2026, though. We’ve got an 8.75% supply unlock coming. That’s the real "final boss" for price action in the short term, and it’s way more important than any grant program.
Aizmirstiet "Wen Airdrop" baumas. Arbitrum maina spēli. Vairs nav gaidāmi masīvi ARB kritumi. Tā vietā viņi ir pārgājuši uz DRIP programmu.
Gudrā daļa? Viņi izsniedz stabilās monētas (siUSD/wsrUSD) vietā. Tulkot: Mazāk pārdošanas spiediena uz vietējo tokenu. 🧠
Paskatāmies uz cenu. ARB atrodas ap $0.169—samazinājies gandrīz par 20% pēdējā mēnesī. Tas izskatās neglīti, bet grafiki kliedz "pārdots pārmērīgi."
RSI ir zem 30 1h un 4h laika ietvaros. Vēsturiski, kad $ARB ir tik stipri izsists, tehniskais lēciens ir tepat aiz stūra. 📈
"Zivju" faktors 🐋: Neskatoties uz drūmajiem laikiem, mēs tikko redzējām $17M tilta ieplūdes. Lielie spēlētāji iegādājas somas ap $0.17 atbalsta līmeni.
Ar finansēšanas likmēm dziļi negatīvā teritorijā, tirgus ir piepildīts ar īsām pozīcijām. Tas ir klasiskā iestatījuma piemērs īso pozīciju saspiešanai.
Bet neļaujiet sev pārāk atslābināties. Nāk milzīgs "Pēdējais bosses" 2026. gada 16. februārī.
Arbitrum plāno atbloķēt 93 miljonus ARB (~$15.8M). Tas ir gandrīz 2% no piedāvājuma, kas vienlaikus nonāk tirgū. Katru reizi, kad redzam šādu apjomu atbloķēšanu, cena parasti samazinās par 10-15%. 📉⚠️
Spēles plāns:
Īstermiņā (1-4 nedēļas): Sagaidiet lēcienu. Ja $0.17 noturēsies, mēs varam redzēt atvieglošanas ralliju uz $0.20 vai $0.22, kad tehniskie rādītāji atjaunojas.
Februāra vidū: Esiet uzmanīgi. Atbloķēšana ir liela gravitācijas aka.
Arbitrum pamati (TVL $11B+) ir stabils, bet atbloķēšanas grafiks ir bosses, kuru nevar ignorēt. Palieciet modri. 👊
$ETH ir pamata stabilā monēta par $2,950 pašlaik. Garlaicīgi? Varbūt. Bet zem virsmas notiek kaut kas milzīgs, ko tirgus pilnībā nepareizi novērtē.
Kamēr visi strīdas par L2 maksām un "ETH ir miris" memēm, inženieru komandas klusi ir laidušas klajā daudzklientu post-quantum (PQ) izstrādes tīklus. Tas nav tikai baltā grāmata—tas ir faktisks kods, kas darbojas Zeam, ReamLabs un Grandine.
Džastins Dreiks izmet $2M atlīdzību, lai izsistu Poseidona hashu, nav tikai izrādīšanās. Tas ir stresa tests primitīvām, kas aizsargās tīklu nākamo 50 gadu laikā. Mēs runājam par leanVM un ar hashi balstītām parakstiem, kas virzās uz ražošanas līmeņa testēšanu.
Kāpēc tirgus ir klusums? Jo tu nevari 50x "ilgtermiņa izdzīvošanas" stāstu uz 24h perp. Finansēšanas likmes ir plakanas un likvidācijas ir mazas, jo tas ir 10 gadu spēle, nevis "nākamās nedēļas" pumpis.
Reālā konkurence vairs nav par to, kuram ir augstākais TPS. Tas ir: "Kurš izdzīvo, kad matemātika sabrūk?" ETH: Konta abstrakcija + PQ izstrādes tīkli = Pivot gatavs. BTC: UTXO modelis + lēns konsensus = 75+ dienu riska logs. Solana: Liela ātruma, bet nav skaidra ceļa, lai izdzīvotu kriptogrāfiskā melnā gulbja gadījumā.
Lielie naudiņi to saprot. Coinbase nenāk ar smagsvariem kā Dan Boneh PR nolūkos—viņi hedžē. Institūcijas necenšas pēc 20% svārstībām; viņi izsvītro ķēdes, kas nevar izdzīvot kvantu pārejā.
Ja tu būvē uz 2035. gadu, Ethereum pašlaik ir vienīgais L1, kas sniedz ticamu post-quantum ceļa karti. Tas nav par cenu šodien; tas ir par to, kurš vēl stāv, kad mūzika apstājas.
Tagad varat arī pelnīt naudu, prognozējot @CZ tvītu skaitu
YZi Labs ieguldītā prognožu tirgū predict.fun tikko atvēra jaunu prognožu paneli, prognozējot CZ tvītu skaitu, jāatzīst, ka viņu UI dizains ir ļoti labs, ļoti intuitīvs, un varat reāli redzēt CZ pašreizējo tvītu skaitu.
1. Solana Seeker Airdrop is Printing $SKR is the talk of the town. Solana Mobile dropped 20% of the supply to Seeker users. - The Gains: Top tier got $30k, even base users got $400. - Action: Price skyrocketed 350%, hitting a $300M cap. Staking APY is sitting at 23.9%. The "phone pays for itself" meta is alive and well.
2. FUD Alert: intodotspace Controversy Be careful with self-hosted ICOs. intodotspace raised $20M (way over their $2.5M goal) and then suddenly changed their math to $13.5M. The community is screaming "soft rug." Same vibes as the Blockstranding drama—moving goalposts on FDV is a massive red flag.
3. TGE Tonight: $FIGHT & $SENT
- Fight ID ($FIGHT): Hits Binance Alpha at 19:00 UTC+8. UFC’s official partner. They actually handled refunds decently, which is rare these days. - Sentient ($SENT ): Goes liquid at 18:00 UTC+8. Massive $93M backing, so expect heavy volume.
4. ETH ETF Milestone Grayscale (ETHE) started distributing staking rewards to holders. This is the first time Wall Street gets ETH yield in a standard brokerage account. ETH is officially a "productive asset" now, not just a digital pet rock.
5. The White House Meme War A White House tweet about "memes" sparked a race between Solana and BSC. Surprisingly, BSC won this round with a $28M cap vs Solana’s $3.6M. However, Binance leads are already saying they won't support these low-effort "wordplay" memes much longer.
6. Quick Funding News Warden Protocol: Confirmed a $4M round at $200M FDV. They actually have $2.5M in annual revenue—rare for this space. Bitway: BTCFi L1 IDO is currently live on KAITO.
The "Grand Unification": Perp DEXs Are Finally Coming for the CEX Crown
Let’s be real: if you still think DeFi is just about swapping tokens or farming yield, you’re stuck in 2021. The game has shifted. By early 2026, Perp DEXs have clawed their way to a 19% market share. Meanwhile, CEX trading volumes in Q4 2025 tanked by 68%. This isn’t just a "bear market" slump; it’s a mass exodus. Veteran traders are finally asking: "Why am I keeping my capital in a black box that could rug or go offline the moment things get volatile?" When trust breaks, the tech takes over. Today’s Perp DEXs aren't the clunky Uniswap clones of the past. They’re fighting on three fronts: Speed, Cost, and Capital Efficiency. The Heavy Hitters Redefining the Game 1. @Paradex: Where the Whales Play Paradex doesn't care about retail hype; it’s built for the big fish. With $201B+ in cumulative volume, it’s clear where the institutional money is moving. They’ve solved the last two reasons to stay on a CEX: depth and fees. If you can get zero fees, high performance, and privacy without giving up your keys, why stay on a centralized platform? 2. @Extendedapp: Making Margin Work for You Extended has a killer hook. Instead of your USDC sitting idle as collateral, it’s parked in a yield vault generating 15%–35% APY while you trade. You’re catching market moves while your base capital is compounding. CEXs can't (or won't) offer that level of transparency on your idle funds. 3. @Variational_io: The "Long Tail" King Variational is for the degens and the pros who need niche markets. Using an RFQ (Request for Quote) model, they’ve spun up over 500 markets. If there’s a derivative you want to trade—no matter how obscure—they probably have it. Once you get used to that level of customization, a standard CEX menu feels like a straightjacket. 4. @AURAMoney: The All-in-One Gateway AURA is the sleeper hit. Their beta saw $50M+ in 6 weeks with a tight-knit community of "trading squads." They’re not trying to be just an exchange; they want to be your home screen. Perps, prediction markets, and Memecoins all in one mobile UI. They’re stealing the "easy-to-use" card that CEXs have played for years and bringing it on-chain. 5. @GRVT_IO: The Performance Beast GRVT is basically a CEX experience on steroids. Insane Speed: 600k TPS and sub-1ms latency. You literally cannot feel the "on-chain" lag.Double Yield: They offer a 10% account yield share plus GLP strategy vaults hitting 24-48% APY.Privacy: They use ZK-tech to hide your trade details, protecting you from MEV bots and front-runners. Why is this time different? We’ve heard "DEX > CEX" for years, but the stars have finally aligned: The Post-FTX Trauma: Nobody trusts centralized "trust me bro" accounting anymore.The Hardware Caught Up: Layer 2s and App-chains mean speed is no longer a bottleneck.Real Yield: Fees are going back to the users and LPs, not to buy some CEO a third yacht.
Crypto Daily: BTC Dips, but TGE Season is Heating Up
Market's looking a bit bipolar today. #BTC took a hit below $91k thanks to Greenland jitters and tariff talk, but the primary market is absolutely buzzing with launches and airdrops. MicroStrategy is still the ultimate HODLer. Saylor just dropped another $2.13B to bag 22,305 $BTC . It’s their biggest single buy in 7 months. While retail is panic-selling the dip, MSTR is vacuuming up the floor. Acurast ($ACU) is finally live. The DePIN project hit mainnet and listed on 6+ exchanges including Binance Alpha and Gate. Price is sitting around $0.097—down about 30% from the opening wick, which is standard TGE volatility. Airdrop check for the farmers: * Acurast: If you had 241+ points, go grab your 320 $ACU on Binance Alpha. ETHGas ($GWEI): Backed by Polychain. Snapshot is done. Check your eligibility tonight (21:00 UTC). If you’ve spent a lot on gas over the years, this one’s for you. Solana ecosystem news: $SOL Strategies dropped STKESOL. It’s a new liquid staking token (LST) with 500k+ SOL already staked at launch. You can already loop it or provide liquidity on Orca and Kamino. Base chain gems: Football.Fun ($FUN) is seeing some solid growth—TVL is up 30% to $5.2M. If you’re farming Aerodrome, look into the "Funderdrome" rewards. 5M $FUN is up for grabs. Keep an eye on the calendar: Jan 21: Solana Mobile ($SKR) listings.Jan 22: Sentient AGI ($SENT) launch. This is the big one. 57% of the supply is going to the community. High expectations for this airdrop.
The Trove saga is a masterclass in how to incinerate trust. From Pokémon cards to casino wallets, this is everything that went wrong with the perp DEX that everyone thought was the "next big thing." The Promise: - Trove launched as a Perp DEX for illiquid assets: CS2 skins, Watches, RWAs, and Pokémon cards. - 5-10x leverage. - Built on Hyperliquid. - $1B testnet volume / 24k users. - ICO raises $11.5M (460% oversubscribed). - Everything looked perfect. Until it wasn't.
The "Last Minute" Switch:Jan 11, 2026. 5 minutes before the ICO closes, the team edits the contract to extend the sale by 5 days.
Why? Because massive bets (up to $300k) just appeared on Polymarket wagering the ICO wouldn’t end. One trader lost $73k in minutes trying to hedge.
The Backtrack:The community caught the "extension" in the code immediately. The team panicked, cancelled the extension, and finished the ICO "as planned."
The apology? "We were optimizing for a small group." The reality? It looked like blatant insider trading via Polymarket.
The $10M Exit: Hours later, wallets linked to Trove began dumping $10M of $HYPE (the core of their Hyperliquid strategy). The founder denied controlling the wallets, but the on-chain breadcrumbs don't lie. They were de-risking while the community was still locked in.
The Casino & The Shills:Then the skeletons came out of the closet: - $45k of angel investor funds tracked to a casino wallet. - Influencers paid $5k/month just to wear a "badge." - Massive undisclosed shills and discounted ICO bags for KOLs. Zero transparency.
The Pivot: Suddenly, Trove announces they are ditching Hyperliquid for Solana.
In crypto, a "chain pivot" after a scandal is usually just an attempt to find a fresh audience that hasn't heard about your previous disasters yet.
Where are we now? - TGE? Delayed. - Again? Delayed. The "Anonymous" team has effectively lost the mandate to lead. When a team gambles your money at a casino and bets against their own ICO close date, the story rarely has a happy ending.