Aman Sai

Wall Street analysts are largely aligned in their assessment of Strategy (MSTR) following the company’s eye-catching fourth-quarter loss: while the numbers look severe on the surface, they do not indicate a liquidity crisis or an imminent need to sell bitcoin.
Headline Losses Mask Accounting Reality
Strategy reported a $17.4 billion operating loss and a $12.6 billion net loss for Q4. According to analysts at TD Cowen and Benchmark, these losses were driven primarily by non-cash, mark-to-market accounting adjustments tied to bitcoin’s price decline—not by cash outflows or operational weakness.
The market initially reacted negatively, sending Strategy shares down roughly 17% on a day when bitcoin and broader risk assets were already under pressure. However, sentiment quickly reversed as bitcoin rebounded from around $60,000 to above $70,000, lifting Strategy shares by about 21% the following day.
Solvency, Not Profitability, Is the Core Debate
Analysts emphasize that the key question for Strategy is solvency, not quarterly profitability. The company currently holds approximately 713,500 bitcoin, valued near $50 billion at current prices, against about $8.2 billion in convertible debt and $2.25 billion in cash.
Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer noted that genuine balance-sheet stress would only emerge if bitcoin fell below $8,000 and stayed there for years—a scenario he views as highly unlikely. Management also reiterated during the earnings call that none of Strategy’s debt carries covenants or triggers linked to bitcoin’s price or its average purchase cost.
Designed to Amplify Bitcoin Volatility
TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza highlighted that Strategy’s structure is intentionally built to amplify bitcoin’s volatility, with its equity historically moving about 1.5x the swings of bitcoin itself. While this leverage increases downside risk during drawdowns, it also enhances upside exposure during rallies.
Vitanza added that Strategy’s sizable cash reserve and staggered debt maturities make forced bitcoin sales in the near term extremely unlikely , even if bitcoin prices remain under pressure for an extended period.
Differing Angles, Same Conclusion
Where analysts diverge is mainly in framing, not conviction. TD Cowen views Strategy as a “digital credit engine,” pointing to its expanding preferred equity business, including STRC preferred stock that offers an 11.25% annualized dividend. Benchmark, meanwhile, places greater emphasis on bitcoin’s long-term upside and the optionality embedded in Strategy’s equity if prices surge.
Both firms remain constructive on the stock. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating with a $705 price target, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that assumes bitcoin reaches $225,000 by the end of 2026. TD Cowen also maintained a Buy rating, describing Strategy as one of the most efficient vehicles for leveraged bitcoin exposure outside of ETFs, though it did not specify a target price.
Key Takeaway
Analysts view Strategy’s fourth-quarter loss as an accounting outcome rather than a structural weakness. With substantial bitcoin holdings, ample cash reserves, and no price-linked debt triggers, the company remains positioned to withstand prolonged market volatility. For investors, Strategy continues to function as a high-leverage proxy for bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory rather than a business facing near-term financial stress.

Solana (SOL) is under intense selling pressure as the broader crypto market slides deeper into fear-driven territory. With market sentiment hitting extreme lows, analysts warn that SOL could face a further breakdown, potentially falling below the critical $50 level.
Solana Slips Below Key Levels

Solana price has dropped below the $70 mark for the first time since 2023, touching a weekly low near $68. This move represents a sharp 20% decline in just one week, signaling strong bearish momentum.
Technical indicators suggest that sellers are firmly in control. If the current trend continues, analysts see $50 as the next major downside target in a worst-case scenario.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also weakened, falling nearly 9% and trading below $67,000, adding pressure across the altcoin market. Major tokens such as ETH, ADA, DOGE, and XRP have all slipped below their key support zones.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index Crashes to 5
Market sentiment has deteriorated rapidly, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunging to 5, its lowest level since the FTX collapse. Such extreme fear often reflects panic selling, defensive positioning, and heightened volatility.
Over the past 24 hours alone, more than $300 million in Solana long positions were liquidated. The single largest liquidation reached $6.69 million near the $73 level. Across the market, total crypto capitalization has fallen by 3.21% to around $2.29 trillion, while Bitcoin recorded the largest liquidations at approximately $1.23 billion.
Solana Treasury Firms Hit Hard
The prolonged downturn has also impacted companies holding Solana as part of their treasury strategy. SOL has declined nearly 40% over the past month, translating into heavy losses for these firms.
Forward Industries reported losses of around 64%Solana Company is estimated to be down 65%Other firms such as DeFi Dev Corp, Sharps Tech, and Upxi have suffered losses of 42%, 68%, and 47%, respectively
As of February 5, 2026, Forward Industries remains the largest Solana treasury holder, though all such firms are currently facing significant stress.
Will SOL Drop to $50? Key Levels to Watch
The latest SOL price hovers near $83, struggling to regain upward momentum after failing to hold above the $100 resistance level. The $80 support zone is now crucial.
Below $80 → risk of a slide toward $70Further breakdown → potential move toward $50 in an extreme bearish scenario
Momentum indicators remain weak. The MACD continues to print negative signals, indicating ongoing bearish momentum, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stays below zero, confirming that selling pressure outweighs buying interest.
On the upside, a sustained move above $85 could offer short-term relief, opening the door for a rebound toward the $90–$100 range. Until then, Solana remains vulnerable to further downside amid one of the most fearful phases the crypto market has seen in recent years.

#NFA #DYOR

Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (MARA) has transferred a sizable amount of bitcoin across multiple counterparties and custody venues, a move that is drawing attention amid heightened market volatility.
On-chain data tracked by Arkham shows that MARA moved 1,318 BTC, worth approximately $87 million, over a roughly 10-hour period. The transfers were split across trading firms, custodians and new wallets, suggesting a mix of potential use cases rather than a single outright sale.
Largest share sent to Two Prime
The biggest portion of the transfers went to Two Prime, a digital asset credit and trading firm. One transaction sent 653.773 BTC, valued at about $42 million, to a Two Prime–tagged address. This was followed minutes later by a smaller top-up of roughly 9 BTC, worth around $580,000.
Because Two Prime operates as a trading and credit counterparty, this leg of the transfer is likely to attract the most scrutiny. While such movements can precede spot selling, they are also commonly associated with collateral posting, structured trading strategies or liquidity management.
Funds also moved to digital asset custodian and new wallet
In separate transactions, MARA sent 200 BTC and 99.999 BTC , together worth about $20.4 million at the time to an address associated with a well-known digital asset custodian.
Another 305 BTC, valued at roughly $20.7 million, was transferred to a freshly created wallet. Such moves are often linked to internal treasury reshuffling, enhanced security practices or preparation for future transactions rather than immediate liquidation.
Timing raises market questions
The transfers come at a sensitive moment for crypto markets. Bitcoin prices have been swinging sharply following a liquidation-driven selloff earlier this week, leaving traders alert for any sign that miners may be turning into forced sellers in a thin and fragile market.
Large miner-related transfers frequently spark speculation because miners represent a natural source of supply. In stressed conditions, even routine operational movements can be interpreted as bearish signals, despite often having benign explanations.
Pressure building across the mining sector
The broader context adds to the tension. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from last year’s peak above $126,000, and current prices are estimated to be around 20% below the average cost of production.
Data from Checkonchain places the average cost to mine one bitcoin at roughly $87,000, while spot prices have recently hovered near $60,000. Historically, periods when bitcoin trades below production cost have been associated with bear-market conditions and increased financial pressure on miners.
What the moves may and may not be signal
While MARA’s transfers are sizable, they do not automatically imply imminent spot selling. Movements to trading desks, custodians or new wallets can reflect collateral management, balance-sheet optimization or preparations for over-the-counter transactions rather than market sales.
Still, in a volatile and liquidity-thin environment, miner activity remains closely watched. Whether these transfers turn into actual supply hitting the market or remain part of routine treasury operations will likely shape near-term sentiment as traders assess the health of the mining sector.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered sharp criticism of parts of the crypto industry during a Senate hearing, accusing some market participants of actively resisting regulation and slowing progress on long-awaited digital asset legislation.
Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, Bessent said there appears to be a group within the crypto industry that prefers no regulation at all, even when constructive rules are on the table.
“There seems to be a nihilist group in the industry who prefers no regulation over this very good regulation,” Bessent said, referring to negotiations around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
Rare alignment with lawmakers
Bessent’s comments drew vocal support from Senator Mark Warner, one of the bill’s key Democratic negotiators. Warner echoed the frustration, saying lawmakers are working intensively to move the legislation forward despite continued resistance from industry voices.
“I feel like I’m in crypto hell,” Warner remarked during the hearing, noting that unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and national security remain major sticking points.
Industry pushback complicates talks
The Clarity Act has faced sustained criticism from parts of the crypto sector, particularly over provisions related to decentralized finance, stablecoin yield rewards, and how tokens are classified under securities law.
Among the most prominent critics has been Brian Armstrong, who has raised concerns about how the bill could affect innovation and DeFi activity. Armstrong’s decision to withdraw support for an earlier version of the legislation last month was seen as a significant setback in the bill’s momentum.
Lawmakers have struggled to balance competing demands from crypto firms, traditional financial institutions and regulators, especially on the issue of stablecoin yields and oversight authority.
National security and DeFi concerns
Warner emphasized that while technical issues such as rewards and yields can be resolved, national security risks tied to decentralized finance cannot be ignored.
“These national security issues around DeFi are real,” Warner said, warning against regulatory gaps that could weaken existing enforcement powers or create large exemptions for certain crypto activities.
“Move to El Salvador”
Bessent stopped short of naming specific companies but made his position clear on the need for federal oversight. He argued that the crypto industry cannot fully advance in the U.S. without clear market structure rules.
“It’s impossible to proceed without it,” Bessent said of the Clarity Act. “We have to get this across the finish line. And any market participants who don’t want it should move to El Salvador.”
The comment underscored the administration’s view that operating in U.S. markets requires accepting regulatory oversight, even in an industry built on decentralization.
Building on stablecoin regulation
Bessent pointed to the earlier GENIUS Act as an example of balanced crypto legislation, saying it successfully combined innovation with safeguards. He suggested a similar approach could ultimately bring the Clarity Act across the finish line later this year.
“There are people who want to live in the U.S. but not have rules for this important industry,” Bessent said. “We need safe, sound and smart practices, along with government oversight, while still allowing for the freedom that defines crypto.”
A defining moment for U.S. crypto policy
The exchange highlighted growing tensions between policymakers pushing for regulatory clarity and industry factions wary of increased oversight. As negotiations continue, the fate of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is increasingly seen as a turning point for whether the U.S. can establish a coherent framework for crypto markets or risk losing innovation to jurisdictions with looser rules.

Bitcoin slipped below the $68,000 mark during U.S. morning hours on Thursday, extending a week-long selloff that has closely tracked weakness across global risk assets. The move has increased concerns that the market could see more downside in the near term, especially as leveraged positions continue to unwind.
The decline triggered a sharp wave of liquidations across the crypto market. Over the past 24 hours, more than $1 billion worth of positions were forcibly closed, with roughly $980 million coming from bullish leveraged bets that were unable to handle the drop in prices.
Liquidations Accelerate as Key Levels Break

Bitcoin had already moved under $70,000 earlier in the session, a level many traders were watching as a major liquidity threshold. Data from Coinglass shows that liquidity thins out quickly just below this zone, leaving fewer liquidation-driven buy orders to slow the fall once prices move decisively lower.
According to liquidation heatmaps, clusters of forced-exit levels become sparse beneath $70,000 until the high-$60,000 range. This makes the area mechanically important. If price breaks cleanly, there is less resistance from forced buying, which can allow selling pressure to push the market lower at a faster pace.
Liquidation heatmaps highlight price zones where leveraged traders are most likely to get forced out. These zones often act as short-term magnets for volatility, rather than exact reversal points, and traders use them mainly to identify crowded risk areas.
Risk-Off Sentiment Spreads Across Markets
Bitcoin’s weakness has played out alongside broader deleveraging in global markets. Renewed pressure in assets like silver, combined with risk reduction across macro trades, has added to a risk-off environment. In this backdrop, crypto assets have increasingly traded as part of the same liquidity-driven complex as traditional risk assets.
As leverage is reduced, volatility has increased, and price moves have become more sensitive to liquidity shifts than to fundamental news.
Prediction Markets Signal Lower Expectations
Sentiment data from Polymarket also reflects growing caution. Contracts tied to bitcoin’s 2026 price outlook now lean toward lower levels, with traders assigning the highest probability to outcomes at or below $65,000.
At the same time, expectations for a return to six-figure prices have faded sharply compared to January highs. Odds for deeper drawdowns into the mid-$50,000 range have climbed in recent days, showing that retail traders are preparing for a longer consolidation or further declines.
ETF Outflows and Reduced Leverage Add Pressure
Flows data points to similar caution. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have logged net outflows this week, while activity in perpetual futures markets has thinned as traders reduce leverage. This pullback in speculative positioning has removed a layer of short-term support that previously helped slow price drops.
Some market participants still see the $68,000–$70,000 zone as an important technical area, citing heavy prior trading activity and long-term holder cost bases clustered nearby. However, a sustained break below this range could open the door to a deeper consolidation phase, similar to earlier post-rally drawdowns.

Tether, the company behind the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, has invested $100 million in Anchorage Digital, a federally regulated digital asset bank in the United States. The move signals a deeper push by Tether into U.S.-based, regulated stablecoin infrastructure as regulatory frameworks continue to take shape.
Anchorage Digital holds a U.S. national banking charter and provides institutional services such as digital asset custody, staking, settlement, and stablecoin issuance. Following the investment, Anchorage is expected to further expand these offerings, including increased support for Tether-related products.
Strengthening an Existing Partnership
The two firms already had an established working relationship. Anchorage serves as the banking and issuance partner for USAT, Tether’s U.S.-focused stablecoin designed to comply with American regulatory requirements. The new capital injection formalizes and strengthens this partnership, positioning both companies to benefit from rising institutional demand for regulated stablecoin services.
By backing Anchorage, Tether gains a stronger foothold within the U.S. financial system at a time when regulated players are increasingly favored by lawmakers, institutions, and large investors.
Strategic Shift Toward the U.S. Market
Historically, Tether’s primary focus has been offshore users and emerging markets, where its flagship USDT token has grown to a market capitalization of around $185 billion. The Anchorage investment represents a notable strategic shift, reflecting Tether’s intention to play a more active role in the U.S. stablecoin ecosystem.
This move comes as regulatory clarity improves following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which has accelerated the transition toward compliant and transparent stablecoin infrastructure within the United States.
Regulatory Alignment and Institutional Focus
Anchorage’s status as a federally regulated bank gives Tether exposure to a segment of the market that prioritizes compliance, security, and regulatory oversight. As institutions increasingly seek stablecoin partners that operate within clear legal frameworks, the partnership allows Tether to align itself more closely with U.S. regulatory expectations.
According to the companies, the investment is aimed at building secure and resilient financial infrastructure capable of supporting stablecoin adoption at institutional scale.
Executive Perspective
Commenting on the investment, Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, said the company’s mission is to challenge traditional financial systems while building global infrastructure rooted in transparency and security. He added that the partnership with Anchorage reflects a shared belief in regulated, trustworthy digital finance.
Outlook
The $100 million investment marks a significant step in Tether’s evolution from an offshore-focused stablecoin issuer to a more integrated participant in the U.S. financial system. As stablecoin regulation continues to advance, the partnership with Anchorage positions Tether to compete more effectively in a market increasingly shaped by compliance, institutional adoption, and regulatory oversight.

Solana’s price has slipped below the $95 level for the first time since early 2024, extending a sharp downtrend that has dominated the market in recent days. The token has fallen more than 8% in the last 24 hours, while weekly losses now stand close to 27%, highlighting strong and persistent selling pressure.
At the time of writing, Solana is trading near the $92 zone, well below its key moving averages, suggesting that bears remain firmly in control of short-term price action.
Broader Market Weakness Adds Pressure
Solana’s decline is not happening in isolation. The overall crypto market has dropped by over 4%, bringing total market capitalization down to around $2.5 trillion. Major assets have also seen sharp corrections, with Bitcoin falling roughly 5% and Ethereum down nearly 6%.
Other large-cap tokens, including BNB, XRP, ADA and DOGE, are also trading lower. Market sentiment remains deeply negative, with fear-driven selling and a surge in long liquidations amplifying downside momentum.
Trading Activity Surges Despite the Drop
Interestingly, Solana’s trading volume has increased significantly during the sell-off. Daily trading volume has jumped to approximately $7.1 billion, representing a rise of nearly 74%. This spike indicates heightened activity from both panic sellers and opportunistic traders reacting to increased volatility.
Rising volume during a price decline often reflects strong conviction in the current trend, reinforcing the idea that selling pressure is still dominant.
Solana Ecosystem Activity Remains Strong
Despite the price weakness, on-chain activity on the Solana network remains relatively robust. In January, the blockchain saw a surge in token creation, with over 1.3 million new SPL tokens launched, marking one of the most active periods in the past year.
While this highlights continued developer and ecosystem engagement, it has not yet translated into near-term price support for SOL, as broader market conditions continue to weigh heavily.
Solana ETFs See Growing Inflows
Adding a contrasting signal, Solana-focused exchange-traded products have recorded notable inflows. On February 2, 2026, Solana ETFs attracted approximately $5.6 million in net inflows, led by the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), which alone saw around $3.4 million in fresh capital.
Other products, including Fidelity’s Solana fund and Grayscale’s Solana fund, also reported positive flows. This trend suggests that while spot market sentiment is weak, institutional interest in Solana-linked investment products remains active.
Key Levels to Watch: $90 in Focus
From a technical perspective, the $90 level has emerged as a critical support zone. A clear breakdown below this area could open the door for a deeper correction toward the $80 region, where the next layer of demand is expected.
On the upside, any relief rally is likely to face strong resistance near $100, making it difficult for SOL to regain bullish momentum in the short term.
Momentum indicators continue to flash warning signs. The MACD remains firmly bearish, with the indicator line below the signal line, while the red histogram suggests continued downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 21, placing SOL in oversold territory and hinting at the possibility of a short-term bounce , though not necessarily a trend reversal.
Outlook
Solana remains under heavy selling pressure, driven by broader market weakness and negative sentiment. While oversold conditions could trigger a temporary rebound, the overall trend still favors the bears. Unless SOL can reclaim key resistance levels, any recovery may remain limited, with the $90 support acting as the next major test for price stability.

Europe’s Role in the Next Wave of Tokenisation
Tokenisation of real-world assets (RWAs) has moved beyond being just a buzzword and is now becoming a practical foundation for institutional blockchain adoption. What earlier looked like small pilot projects is slowly turning into live market infrastructure. In this shift, Europe is starting to play an important role in shaping how tokenised markets actually scale.
In the first half of 2025 alone, the value of tokenised real-world assets grew sharply, reaching close to $23 billion in on-chain value. This kind of growth points toward a structural change in financial markets, where blockchain-based versions of assets like bonds, funds and securities are being taken more seriously than before.
Tokenisation Has Momentum, but Still Faces Limits
Large global institutions have already shown interest in tokenisation. Firms such as BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs have explored or launched initiatives linked to tokenised assets. Even with this progress, large-scale adoption has not fully arrived yet.
Most tokenised assets today are still issued inside permissioned systems, often split by regulatory uncertainty and limited interoperability. Public blockchain infrastructure that can support institutional-scale markets is still developing. In simple terms, tokenisation works, but the broader market rails needed for global adoption are still getting built.
Regulation as the Missing Enabler
The biggest thing holding tokenisation back is not technology, but regulation. Institutions need legal clarity before they commit balance sheets or long-term strategies. Retail investors also need rules that protect them without pushing them out completely. Markets need standards they can rely on.
Without these elements, liquidity stays shallow, systems remain siloed and innovation finds it hard to move beyond early adopters.
This is where Europe has managed to move ahead.
Europe’s Regulatory Edge
Europe has treated regulation more as an enabler rather than a roadblock. With Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) now in force, along with the DLT Pilot Regime, the region has moved past fragmented national sandboxes.
For the first time, there is a unified regulatory framework across the continent for digital assets and tokenised securities. This gives legal and operational certainty that institutions usually look for before building at scale. Instead of dealing with different rules in each country, market participants can work under a more consistent structure across the EU.
From Pilots to Real Market Activity
Europe’s regulatory-first approach is already showing results on the ground. Under MiCA and the DLT Pilot Regime, European banks have started issuing tokenised bonds on regulated infrastructure, with issuance crossing €1.5 billion during 2024. Asset managers are also testing on-chain fund structures meant for wider distribution, while fintech companies are integrating digital-asset rails into licensed platforms.
These developments show a shift from testing ideas to actual deployment. One of the industry’s long-standing challenges , building compliant infrastructure from the start , is slowly becoming less of a blocker.
The Next Phase: Interoperability and Market Structure
As tokenisation moves into its next phase, interoperability will matter more than ever. If standards are not aligned early, digital markets risk repeating the same fragmentation seen in traditional finance, just on blockchain.
Europe’s regulatory clarity gives it a chance to influence how global standards are shaped. Encouraging cross-chain interoperability and common disclosure rules could help tokenised markets scale without creating new silos.
The next wave of tokenisation will not be defined only by speed, but by trust , trust in who builds the infrastructure and how it is governed. Europe’s focus on clear rules and market structure gives it a real opportunity to lead here.
Why Europe Going Forward
Europe may not lead tokenisation through hype or aggressive experimentation, but through credibility and structure. By putting trusted frameworks in place early, the region has created conditions for institutions to move beyond cautious trials toward longer-term commitments.
As tokenisation slowly becomes part of core financial infrastructure, Europe’s steady and regulation-led approach could turn out to be its biggest strength, allowing markets to grow in a way that is scalable but also sustainable.

Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a software stock, as its recent price correction has unfolded alongside a broader sell-off in the software sector. Market data suggests that bitcoin’s behavior is becoming more aligned with technology equities , particularly software-focused names , rather than moving independently as a distinct asset class.

On a 30-day rolling basis, bitcoin’s correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV) has climbed to 0.73, according to research from ByteTree. This is a notably high level of correlation, indicating that price movements in bitcoin and software stocks are currently closely linked. Year to date, IGV has declined roughly 20%, while bitcoin is down about 16%, reinforcing the similarity in performance.
IGV is heavily weighted toward major software and services companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Intuit, and Adobe. Weakness across these names has pulled the ETF lower, and bitcoin has increasingly mirrored this pressure.
This trend stands out because the broader technology market has remained relatively resilient. The Nasdaq 100 is only modestly below its all-time highs, suggesting that selling pressure has been concentrated in software rather than spread evenly across tech. Bitcoin, however, appears to be tracking this weaker segment instead of the broader index.
The primary reason software stocks are under pressure is the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence. Growing concerns around artificial general intelligence (AGI) have sparked fears that traditional software business models could face long-term disruption. As investors reassess valuations across the sector, software equities have borne the brunt of the sell-off.
Analysts argue that bitcoin may be caught in this same narrative. From a structural perspective, bitcoin can be viewed as internet-native, open-source software , placing it closer to technology assets than to traditional commodities or currencies. Over longer time frames, bitcoin’s performance has shown periods of high correlation with technology stocks, especially during market stress.
ByteTree also highlights that the average technology-sector bear market tends to last around 14 months. Since the current downturn began in October, this suggests that pressure on software stocks , and by extension bitcoin , could persist through much of 2026. That said, a resilient macroeconomic environment could still provide underlying support and limit downside risk.
In short, bitcoin is behaving less like an uncorrelated hedge and more like a high-beta technology asset. As long as software stocks remain under pressure from AI-driven uncertainty, bitcoin may continue to trade in close alignment with this troubled sector rather than breaking out on its own.