TheCryptoDegen
Dare to Fly Higher :Blockchain & Digital Asset Management -Bitcoin Fixing World -Shedding Light on Blockchain,Bitcoin & Crypto Currency Trader 24/7
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4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.
The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.
But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year cycle (regardless of which years are bull or bear). Current cycle average is $90k, clearly above past cycle's average of $34k, and is still going towards S2F $250k-$1m range (2 years to go) IMO. I still fundamentally believe that.
$BTC
The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.
But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year cycle (regardless of which years are bull or bear). Current cycle average is $90k, clearly above past cycle's average of $34k, and is still going towards S2F $250k-$1m range (2 years to go) IMO. I still fundamentally believe that.
$BTC
Bitcoin is challenging capital from the largest assets in the world like real estate, bonds, currencies, precious metals, and stocks.
The 20,000 shitcoins are challenging capital from one another because they all do the same thing, not much at all.
I fast realised that no one was using anything other than Bitcoin for payments.
Also, most of the creators of these shitcoins had shady history.
The best thing I ever did was piss off all the shitcoins.
It's not too late. Everyone has been there. Back the only asset worth backing. Bitcoin.
The 20,000 shitcoins are challenging capital from one another because they all do the same thing, not much at all.
I fast realised that no one was using anything other than Bitcoin for payments.
Also, most of the creators of these shitcoins had shady history.
The best thing I ever did was piss off all the shitcoins.
It's not too late. Everyone has been there. Back the only asset worth backing. Bitcoin.
$XAU
Gold is most overbought ever in history.
Once it tops, money will rotate to Bitcoin and crypto like every other time in history.
Patience
Gold is most overbought ever in history.
Once it tops, money will rotate to Bitcoin and crypto like every other time in history.
Patience
"Bitcoin has no usecase,"
BITCOIN per coin:
$0
$10
$100
$10,000
$100,000 < we are here haters
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
^^^^
You can send this much anywhere in the world for $0.30 in fees.
No one can stop it
Hasn't been stopped in 17 years
The centralized system had their chance to stop it early days
First, they laugh at us
Then they ignore us
Then they fight us
Then we win
BITCOIN per coin:
$0
$10
$100
$10,000
$100,000 < we are here haters
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
^^^^
You can send this much anywhere in the world for $0.30 in fees.
No one can stop it
Hasn't been stopped in 17 years
The centralized system had their chance to stop it early days
First, they laugh at us
Then they ignore us
Then they fight us
Then we win
In 2028, the bitcoin block reward drops from 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes, to 1.56 BTC.
From 2028 to 2032, bitcoin will mark the last 4 years where the bitcoin block is above a whole coin.
In 2032, it drops to 0.78 BTC.
If you are alive and watching, this is quite the experience.
One day, your grandchildren will ask questions about the last whole bitcoin reward Epoch.
History in the making.
#BTC
From 2028 to 2032, bitcoin will mark the last 4 years where the bitcoin block is above a whole coin.
In 2032, it drops to 0.78 BTC.
If you are alive and watching, this is quite the experience.
One day, your grandchildren will ask questions about the last whole bitcoin reward Epoch.
History in the making.
#BTC
🚨 WARNING SIGNAL 🚨
ALTCOINS MAY BE HEADING INTO A SERIOUS DOWNTURN.
THE ALTS/BTC RATIO IS SHOWING THE SAME RED FLAG WE SAW BEFORE THE 2017 AND 2021 COLLAPSES — AND BOTH ENDED WITH HEAVY LOSSES.
THE CYCLE PATTERN IS STARTING TO RHYME AGAIN.
STAY ALERT. RISK IS RISING. ⚠️📉
ALTCOINS MAY BE HEADING INTO A SERIOUS DOWNTURN.
THE ALTS/BTC RATIO IS SHOWING THE SAME RED FLAG WE SAW BEFORE THE 2017 AND 2021 COLLAPSES — AND BOTH ENDED WITH HEAVY LOSSES.
THE CYCLE PATTERN IS STARTING TO RHYME AGAIN.
STAY ALERT. RISK IS RISING. ⚠️📉
When you buy $100 of Bitcoin, you probably feel like you're not getting much. WTF is 0.0011 BTC (110,000 Satoshis) going to do? It's not even close to a whole coin.
I always used to feel like time was running out and I needed to get more as soon as possible because of FOMO. The leads to mistakes - you'll buy more than you can afford, and you'll have to potentially sell some later.
Don't put yourself in this position.
Remind yourself that if you're stacking Bitcoin now, you are ahead of 95% of the world. Most people have no clue what this is or where it's going. Your 110,000 Satoshis is very likely more than the average person will EVER have access to.
If you're already buying consistently, you're doing more than most people ever will. When Bitcoin was a fraction of a penny, people probably thought they were missing out even though they had thousands of coins.
I've learned that I will ALWAYS feel like I'm too later, I don't have enough, or I should gamble in some way to get more without working for it.
If you feel this way:
PAUSE.
TAKE A BREATH.
We are EARLY.
There will only ever be 21M Bitcoin.
You're going to be fine if you just continue to dollar cost average. Think in terms of years and decades, not days and weeks.
If you continue to buy $100 of Bitcoin every week, you'll have 0.05-0.1 BTC (worth $500K+) in 20 years. If you want more, find ways to increase your daily buys, but DON'T GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU HAVE.
Focus on consistency over intensity.
#BTC
I always used to feel like time was running out and I needed to get more as soon as possible because of FOMO. The leads to mistakes - you'll buy more than you can afford, and you'll have to potentially sell some later.
Don't put yourself in this position.
Remind yourself that if you're stacking Bitcoin now, you are ahead of 95% of the world. Most people have no clue what this is or where it's going. Your 110,000 Satoshis is very likely more than the average person will EVER have access to.
If you're already buying consistently, you're doing more than most people ever will. When Bitcoin was a fraction of a penny, people probably thought they were missing out even though they had thousands of coins.
I've learned that I will ALWAYS feel like I'm too later, I don't have enough, or I should gamble in some way to get more without working for it.
If you feel this way:
PAUSE.
TAKE A BREATH.
We are EARLY.
There will only ever be 21M Bitcoin.
You're going to be fine if you just continue to dollar cost average. Think in terms of years and decades, not days and weeks.
If you continue to buy $100 of Bitcoin every week, you'll have 0.05-0.1 BTC (worth $500K+) in 20 years. If you want more, find ways to increase your daily buys, but DON'T GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU HAVE.
Focus on consistency over intensity.
#BTC
THE US DOLLAR INDEX DXY IS ABOUT TO CRASH REALLY HARD 🚨
And here’s why:
For the first time this century, the Fed is planning to stop the Japanese yen from going down.
This is what we call “yen intervention.”
To do this, the Fed first needs to create new dollars and then use them to buy yen.
This causes the yen to strengthen and the USD to dump.
And the US government benefits from a weaker USD.
• Future debt gets inflated away
• Exports get a boost due to a cheaper dollar
• The deficit goes down
And for those holding assets, this intervention can result in a huge rally.
Back in July 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in the yen.
Markets were volatile for a few weeks before forming a bottom.
After that, BTC and alts rallied to new highs.
This time, the entity is the Fed itself.
Markets could stay volatile for some time, but as the dollar gets devalued, Bitcoin and alts could go parabolic.
And here’s why:
For the first time this century, the Fed is planning to stop the Japanese yen from going down.
This is what we call “yen intervention.”
To do this, the Fed first needs to create new dollars and then use them to buy yen.
This causes the yen to strengthen and the USD to dump.
And the US government benefits from a weaker USD.
• Future debt gets inflated away
• Exports get a boost due to a cheaper dollar
• The deficit goes down
And for those holding assets, this intervention can result in a huge rally.
Back in July 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in the yen.
Markets were volatile for a few weeks before forming a bottom.
After that, BTC and alts rallied to new highs.
This time, the entity is the Fed itself.
Markets could stay volatile for some time, but as the dollar gets devalued, Bitcoin and alts could go parabolic.
Satoshi Nakamoto has now been holding Bitcoin for 17yrs.
Here's how his holdings have performed over time:
$0 in 2009
$4.5K in 2010
$317K in 2011
$5.5M in 2012
$14.5M in 2013
$827M in 2014
Today, he is worth $100 BILLION and among the top 15 richest people in the world.
The power of not giving up!
Here's how his holdings have performed over time:
$0 in 2009
$4.5K in 2010
$317K in 2011
$5.5M in 2012
$14.5M in 2013
$827M in 2014
Today, he is worth $100 BILLION and among the top 15 richest people in the world.
The power of not giving up!
EXACTLY AS EXPECTED🔥🔥🤑🤑🤑✅️✅️
$BTC
$BTC
VERY IMPORTANT 🔥
$BTC false Breakout .
During false Breakout btc formed a Fair Value Gap between 89,250- 89,600 on 15m TF .
Fvg must be filled , however it mighty lose momentum and land to level 89,600
on liquidity zone which acts as the support
#Bitcoin❗
$BTC false Breakout .
During false Breakout btc formed a Fair Value Gap between 89,250- 89,600 on 15m TF .
Fvg must be filled , however it mighty lose momentum and land to level 89,600
on liquidity zone which acts as the support
#Bitcoin❗
iPhone 4S - 47.9 BTC
iPhone 5 - 15.9 BTC
iPhone 6 - 0.5 BTC
iPhone 7 - 1 BTC
iPhone 10 - 0.13 BTC
iPhone 11 - 0.06 BTC
iPhone 12 -0.06 BTC
iPhone 13 -0.018 BTC
iPhone 14 - 0.04 BTC
iPhone 15 - 0.03 BTC
iPhone 16 - 0.013 BTC
iPhone 17 - 0.007 BTC
iPhone 5 - 15.9 BTC
iPhone 6 - 0.5 BTC
iPhone 7 - 1 BTC
iPhone 10 - 0.13 BTC
iPhone 11 - 0.06 BTC
iPhone 12 -0.06 BTC
iPhone 13 -0.018 BTC
iPhone 14 - 0.04 BTC
iPhone 15 - 0.03 BTC
iPhone 16 - 0.013 BTC
iPhone 17 - 0.007 BTC
🇺🇸 Fed bought $15.22 billion in T-bills this week.
🇨🇳 China injected ¥1.18 trillion in liquidity this week.
🇺🇸 Treasury pumped $16 billion in liquidity this week.
🇺🇸 US cancelled all Greenland-linked tariffs
🇺🇸 President Trump hinted towards tariffs dividend again
Gold, Silver, and the Russell 2000 Index hit new all-time highs this week.
And still, Bitcoin and alts had their worst week in 2026.
#WeeklyMarketHighlights
🇨🇳 China injected ¥1.18 trillion in liquidity this week.
🇺🇸 Treasury pumped $16 billion in liquidity this week.
🇺🇸 US cancelled all Greenland-linked tariffs
🇺🇸 President Trump hinted towards tariffs dividend again
Gold, Silver, and the Russell 2000 Index hit new all-time highs this week.
And still, Bitcoin and alts had their worst week in 2026.
#WeeklyMarketHighlights
In 1 year,
Gold is up 100%
Silver is up 200%
SPX is up 15%
and
BTC is down 15%
You know what this means, right?
#WEFDavos2026
Gold is up 100%
Silver is up 200%
SPX is up 15%
and
BTC is down 15%
You know what this means, right?
#WEFDavos2026
VERY IMPORTANT 🔥
$BTC false Breakout .
During false Breakout btc formed a Fair Value Gap between 89,250- 89,600 on 15m TF .
Fvg must be filled , however it mighty lose momentum and land to level 89,600
on liquidity zone which acts as the support
#Bitcoin❗
$BTC false Breakout .
During false Breakout btc formed a Fair Value Gap between 89,250- 89,600 on 15m TF .
Fvg must be filled , however it mighty lose momentum and land to level 89,600
on liquidity zone which acts as the support
#Bitcoin❗
weekend bullTRAP or what ?
$BTC reclaiming $91k...
$BTC reclaiming $91k...
$BTC back to 90k 😅😅 are we ready for $100k ?
BREAKING NEWS from the future
Bitcoin just hit a new ATH of $156,000
ETH just broke $12,500
BNB trading at $2,000
SOL is stable at $550
LINK struggling to break $150
US bought $10B in BTC for its treasury
Bitcoin just hit a new ATH of $156,000
ETH just broke $12,500
BNB trading at $2,000
SOL is stable at $550
LINK struggling to break $150
US bought $10B in BTC for its treasury
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