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✅ The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

✅This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.

✅Japan is under heavy pressure. The yen has been weak for years, Japanese bond yields are at multi decade highs, and the Bank of Japan is still hawkish. Together, this creates stress not just for Japan, but for global markets. That is why central banks are now taking the situation seriously.

✅Japan has already tried to defend its currency many times on its own. But it failed in 2022 and 2024. Even the July 2024 intervention only worked for short time.

✅History is very clear on this: When Japan acts alone, it does not work. When the U.S. and Japan act together, it does.

✅We saw this in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan’s solo interventions failed, but when the U.S. joined, the yen stabilized. We saw it even more clearly in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, when coordinated action pushed the dollar down nearly 50% over two years.

✅That changed everything: The dollar weakened. Gold, Commodities, Non US markets all pumped.

✅If the Fed intervenes, this is how it'll play out :

📌The Fed creates dollars, sells them, and uses those dollars to buy yen.
📌That weakens the dollar and increases global liquidity.
📌And whenever the dollar is intentionally weakened, asset prices usually surge.

✅Now look at crypto.

✅Bitcoin has one of the strongest inverse relationships with the dollar and one of the strongest positive relationships with the yen. Right now, BTC yen correlation is near record highs.

But there is a catch.

✅There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade. People borrow cheap yen and invest in stocks and crypto. When the yen strengthens suddenly, they are forced to sell those assets to repay loans.

✅We saw this in August 2024: A small BOJ rate hike sent the yen higher. Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days. Crypto lost $600B in value.

-🔸So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto.

-🔸But dollar weakness creates long term upside.

✅Now, why is this bullish for crypto ?

Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement.

✅If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment.

🔥This may become one of the most important macro setups of 2026.
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🔸Canada sends about 75%-76% of all its exports to the U.S. That is over $450 billion per year. A 100% tariff would make most Canadian exports uncompetitive overnight.

🔸His core concern is trade routing. If Canada signs special trade agreements with China, Chinese companies could move goods into Canada first and then send them into the U.S., bypassing American tariffs. Trump calls this using Canada as a drop off port. That would completely break U.S. trade policy against China.

🔸We have already seen what tariffs can do.

🔸In 2018-2019, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel, 10% tariffs on Canadian aluminum. And Canadian steel exports to the U.S. fell by 41% and Aluminum exports fell by 19%.

🔸About $16.6 billion CAD of trade was disrupted. Some Canadian plants cut production and jobs. Supply chains became slower and more expensive

🔸And that happened with just 10%-20% tarrifs. But now Trump is talking about 100% tariffs.

🔸That would hit Autos and auto parts, Energy exports, Aluminum, manufacturing and steel.

🔸Canada’s economy is deeply linked to the U.S. Trade with the U.S. equals roughly two thirds of Canada’s GDP when you include direct and indirect exposure.

🔸At the same time, Canada has been trying to rebuild trade with China.

🔸China is a major buyer of Canadian agriculture like canola and seafood, Canada wants access to Chinese EV and battery supply chains, Canada wants to reduce dependence on a single trading partner.

🔸Economically, that makes sense for Canada. Politically, it puts Canada in the middle of the U.S.-China conflict where Canadian economy will face a major economic shock along with the markets.

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🔸The last time they shut down, gold and silver jumped to new all-time highs.

🔸But if you’re holding other assets like stocks, you need to be extremely careful…

Because we’re heading into a total data blackout.

📌Here are the 4 specific threats:

🔸The Data: No CPI or jobs reports leaves the Fed and risk models unable to see what’s going on. Volatility (VIX) must reprice higher to account for the uncertainty.

🔸Collateral Shock: With previous credit warnings, a shutdown could trigger a downgrade. This would spike repo margins and destroy liquidity.

🔸Liquidity Freeze: The RRP buffer is dry. There's no safety net left. If dealers start hoarding cash, the funding markets seize up.

🔸Recession Trigger: The economy loses ~0.2% GDP per week of shutdown, potentially tipping a stalling economy into a technical recession.

In the last major funding stress (March 2020), the spread between SOFR and IORB blew out.

🔸Watch the SOFR-IORB spread. If it starts gapping, it means the private market is starving for cash even while the Fed sits on a mountain of it. We saw this in 2020.

🔸This sounds scary, but don’t worry I’ll keep you updated on everything.

🔸When I decide to make a new move, I’ll say it here publicly for everyone to see, so pay close attention.

Alot of people will wish they followed me sooner.
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