Price is shaping up into a clean head & shoulders, and the right shoulder can’t reclaim the highs — a classic sign of distribution. Every bounce is getting sold into, and momentum is clearly rolling over.
As long as price stays capped here, the path of least resistance remains down. Running this with small leverage and a wider stop, letting structure do the work if the breakdown confirms.
Long setup on $RIVER as price stabilizes at a major support zone.
Entry: 38,800 – 39,400
SL: 36,800
TPs: 42,000 → 44,500 → 47,000
The drop into the 37.2k area was ugly, but the instant rejection wicks and shrinking candle bodies are a good sign. Selling pressure looks like it’s drying up, and price is starting to base instead of free-falling.
If this support holds, a relief bounce is very much on the table. Risk is defined, upside is clear — now it’s about execution and patience.
Bias stays bearish for now, especially with BTC acting shaky, which keeps pressure on alts.
Price keeps respecting the descending trendline, showing buyers aren’t stepping up yet.
Key zones to watch:
🔴 Resistance: 0.2546 → 0.2794 → 0.3051
🟢 Support: 0.1856 – 0.1781 (last real demand)
A short-term bounce from support could happen, possibly back toward 0.2035 → 0.2297, but unless structure flips, that move looks corrective, not a trend change.
Lose 0.1781, and downside likely accelerates into lower liquidity.
Quick takeaway:
Trend is still bearish. Support is being tested, not defended. Best play is patience — wait for a clear reclaim or a clean breakdown before acting.
Trend Weakening, Market Shifts Into Defensive Mode
On the D1 timeframe, #bitcoin is no longer maintaining its previous bullish structure. Price has fallen below both EMA 34 and EMA 89, while the two moving averages have started to slope downward and repeatedly act as rejection zones whenever price attempts to rebound. When EMAs transition from support into resistance, it often signals a shift in short-term control — sellers no longer need aggressive pressure; they simply wait for pullbacks to re-establish dominance.
The decline toward the 81,500 USD area carries the characteristics of an active distribution phase rather than ordinary volatility. Large daily candle bodies reflect decisive position unwinding, typically accompanied by leverage liquidations and a rapid shift in market sentiment from optimism to caution. Moves like this rarely conclude with a single touch of the low; they usually leave an after-effect in the form of weak and short-lived recoveries.
At the current stage, the 80,000 – 81,500 zone acts as a nearby psychological support where technical reactions may appear due to accumulated liquidity. Below that, the 76,000 – 78,000 region stands out as a notable former demand area should 80k be clearly broken. On the upside, the 89,000 – 93,000 band — where EMA 34 and EMA 89 converge — remains the key zone to evaluate the strength of any rebound. As long as price cannot establish acceptance above this area, short-term advances are more likely to be technical recoveries rather than structural reversals.
From a broader flow perspective, the environment does not yet favor an early breakout scenario. Heightened volatility across risk assets has reduced overall market leverage, while the absence of a strong catalyst limits the return of fresh capital into crypto. When liquidity fails to expand, markets typically choose between two familiar paths: sideways consolidation to absorb supply, or a deeper correction to rediscover a more attractive equilibrium.
Why Traders Freeze Even With a Profitable Strategy
One of the biggest hidden problems in trading isn’t strategy — it’s freezing under uncertainty.
Most traders who freeze actually know what they’re doing. They have rules, a tested system, and can spot good setups. The issue shows up at execution, when there’s no guarantee of outcome.
$XAG
Hesitation feels like patience, but it’s often just discomfort with uncertainty. Trades get missed, entries come late, and confidence drops — not because the strategy failed, but because it wasn’t executed.
$XAU
The key shift is simple: confidence doesn’t come before action, it comes from action.
Trading isn’t about certainty. It’s about following your rules despite not knowing what happens next. The traders who progress are the ones who can execute calmly in uncertainty — not the ones waiting for perfect clarity.
🚨 Strait of Hormuz Tensions Are Heating Up — Markets Are Feeling It
Things just got uncomfortable in the Middle East.
Iran announced live-fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. immediately answered with heavy air drills and a carrier group moving into the region. That strait isn’t just a map detail — about 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.
$XAU
Even the threat of disruption is enough to move markets.
Oil didn’t wait around. Prices jumped toward $65, and that tells you everything: traders are pricing in risk, not waiting for confirmation.
🛢️ Why this matters (and why crypto cares)
Higher oil = higher energy costs
Higher energy costs = inflation pressure
Inflation pressure = rate cuts get pushed back
That’s the chain reaction. And that’s why BTC and risk assets pulled back a bit today. Not panic — just the market tightening its seatbelt.
$XAG
📉 Is this bad for the bull market?
Probably not — unless it escalates.
We’ve seen this movie before. Middle East tensions spike, oil jumps, markets wobble… and then calm returns once nothing actually happens. 2019 is a good example.
The difference this time is supply is already tight, so the reactions are sharper. But so far, this looks like macro noise, not a trend breaker.
🔍 How I’m looking at it
• If this stays political theater → volatility fades → risk assets recover
• If tensions cool fast → oil drops → markets breathe again
• If Hormuz actually gets disrupted → different story, risk-off gets real
For now, we’re in headline-driven chop, not a structural shift.
🧠 Bottom line
This is a reminder that geopolitics can shake markets short term, even in a strong cycle. But unless actions replace words, these moments usually turn into opportunities, not disasters.
Stay alert, don’t over-leverage, and watch oil — it’s telling the story before price does.
As uncertainty in financial markets and geopolitical situations increases, investors are accelerating their flow into safe-haven assets, significantly weakening the importance of #bitcoin . The shift in market sentiment is closely related to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy. Recently, President Trump's tough stance on major trading partners has sparked market concerns. Last weekend, Trump warned that the U.S. might impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches trade agreements with Asian countries, reigniting market concerns about trade tensions. Bitcoin is likely to experience further declines, and unless trading volume increases or a clear catalyst breaks this trend, $BTC appears more likely to consolidate than to surge. Recent weeks have shown that optimism alone is not enough to change this narrative.
$DASH looks like it’s done bleeding for now and is starting to build a proper reversal base. After the sharp drop, selling pressure is clearly easing and buyers are finally stepping in where it matters.
Long idea:
Entry: 55.5 – 57.2
SL: 54.2
TP1: 64
TP2: 72
TP3: 81 🔥
Why this bounce could turn into more than just a bounce:
Selling momentum on the 1H is fading fast
Strong reactions twice from the 55 zone → real demand showing up
First higher low after a downtrend = early structure shift
Above 62, there’s clean air with little resistance
Shorts look crowded after the dump
This is the kind of base that often catches people off guard. If buyers keep defending this zone, $DASH ould flip from “dead coin” to violent recovery very quickly 🚀
Solana Price Analysis: Crypto Expert Says Stack $SOL Under $200
Solana has been pretty quiet lately, and that’s exactly why it’s interesting. This doesn’t look like panic selling or weakness — it looks like price going into wait mode.
Instead of breaking down with the rest of the market, SOL has been chopping sideways in a wide range. Buyers keep showing up at support, sellers keep defending resistance, and neither side has fully taken control yet.
On the daily chart, $SOL is still boxed between the $110–$120 support zone and the $180–$200 resistance area. Every dip into the lower range gets bought, and importantly, price is not making lower lows. That usually signals balance, not fear.
Momentum backs that up. Daily RSI is sitting around the middle — not overbought, not oversold. That’s what a reset looks like, not a breakdown.
Zooming into the 4H chart, the story stays the same. SOL recently bounced again from the low $120s, a level that’s already proven itself multiple times. The move up stalled around the mid-$140s, but what really matters is what happened next.
Instead of dumping hard, price drifted lower slowly, printing smaller candles. That kind of action usually means indecision, not aggressive selling. Momentum cooled off, but it never flipped bearish. The 4H RSI flattening out fits perfectly with consolidation.
Right now, $120 is the line in the sand. As long as $SOL holds above it, the bigger structure stays intact. On the upside, the $140–$150 zone needs to be reclaimed before targets like $180 and $200 come back into play.
Solana doesn’t look ready to explode yet — but it doesn’t look weak either. This feels like a market building pressure, and when it finally picks a direction, the move probably won’t be small.
$Q pushed up into a clear supply zone, and… same story. No acceptance, no follow-through. Sellers stepped in immediately and momentum is already rolling over. This looks like a dead-cat bounce, not a trend change.
Bias: Short
Entry: 0.0216 – 0.0226
SL: 0.0234
Targets:
🎯 0.0208
🎯 0.0196
🎯 0.0182
Every push higher is getting sold, and the move up feels corrective rather than impulsive. As long as price stays capped under this resistance, downside continuation is the cleaner play.
Bitcoin is forming a huge bearish flag on the daily/weekly chart! This is an extremely good pattern for all bears around, but for the bulls, it's indeed not that good because the classic profit target of this pattern is 42k (by classical technical analysis of a bear flag pattern). How to measure the profit target? I did it for you on the chart, but you take the flagpole, copy it, and move it to the breakout point of the flag. But of course we are not going to go down in a straight line!
$XAU
There is a minor support of 71k that can temporarily hold the price, so if you want to trade, really take profit after a few days. 42k is the main target of this bear flag, and I expect that bitcoin can reach this level at around September to October 2026. This should be the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin, so if you want to buy very cheap Bitcoin, this is pretty much your chance. But for now we are waiting for Bitcoin to hit this level.
In order to understand why in September or October, please take a look at my previous important analysis below
What about price action in the short term? Bitcoin can go up in the short term because there is some interesting price action on the 1h chart, but this is really not the point of this analysis. This is an analysis on the daily chart, and in this timeframe, I am of course bearish. But in the short term, #bitcoin can test levels of 91k - 93k before dropping down!
In this very detailed and unique analysis, we will look at the most important #Bitcoin fundamental analysis of halving cycles. I predict Bitcoin will crash to 49k or 60k in 2026, so if you are buying now for the long term as an investment (buy and hold), you can probably wait for a better price! We can statistically predict Bitcoin moves with this simple chart because it's always right and never wrong. What can we say with certainty?
Statistically:
👉 Bitcoin's bull markets last for 742 to 1065 days
👉 Bitcoin's bear markets last for 364 to 413 days
👉 The correction is every time weaker, but still huge
Statistically, $BTC crashes every 4 years by 86% to 77%. The market cap is getting bigger as institutions step in, so this time I expect a weaker crash (around 65% to 50%). Still, it's a huge crash, and many investors will sell at a loss as usual. Knowledge of the Bitcoin cycles will save you a lot of money.
For people who are prepared, this may be an incredible investment opportunity. Also, you can short Bitcoin at the top of a corrective wave B and ride the investment in the opposite direction, plus you will make money on funding fees every 8 hours.
So what to do now? The only way to make money is to trade futures on the crypto market, because pretty much everything is going down. If you trade futures, you can make money on the way down, but it's risky if you don't know what you are doing.
Bitcoin halving is coded to occur once every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, and will continue in this fashion until the final supply of 21 million $BTC is reached. It is assumed that the last $BTC will be mined in 2140. After that, transaction fees are supposed to be the only source of block rewards for miners.
$GIGGLE /USDT – 12H Chart: Still Heavy, Still Bearish
On the 12-hour timeframe, $GIGGLE is firmly stuck in a downtrend. Lower highs, lower lows, no mystery here — sellers are still running the show. Every bounce keeps getting rejected by the descending trendline, and that trendline hasn’t been broken once.
Right now, price is sitting right above a major historical support zone, which makes this area a real decision point. Something has to give soon.
$BTC /USD – 30M – Bullish Continuation From Support
$BTC just ran the stops below demand, flipped the tape bullish, and pushed straight into the 90.7k–91k resistance. Now it’s pulling back into old support. Nothing scary here — this looks like a breather, not a breakdown, as long as buyers actually defend it.
My read:
✅ Bullish path 🚀
Hold 88.5k and show a decent bounce → structure stays clean.
First push back toward 90.7k–91k, and if that gives way, we could see 91.8k–92.2k next.
❌ Bearish path 📉
Lose 88.5k with acceptance and the story changes. That would break structure and open a slide toward 86.3k, killing the bullish setup.
Levels that matter:
🔴 Resistance: 90.7k–91k
🟢 Support: 88.5k / 86.3k
No predictions, no hype — just watching how price reacts where it matters and taking it from there.
#Ethereum is showing solid strength around the $2,700 daily support, and so far, buyers are doing their job. Price is holding where it matters, which keeps the door open for a bullish reversal rather than a deeper breakdown.
If this support continues to hold, the first real upside target sits around $3,700, where heavy resistance comes in. A clean break above $3,700, especially with strong volume, would be a big deal — that’s when momentum could really start to expand.
From there, $ETH could be looking at a run back toward prior highs or even fresh multi-week highs, depending on how the broader market lines up. For now, $2,700 is the line in the sand — above it, bulls stay in control.
$PIPPIN just ripped +46.7% to $0.5689, then immediately got hard rejected, printing a massive 75% upper wick. Price is now hovering around $0.476, still sitting ~29% above fair value with RSI 75.7 and MFI 75.9.
That’s not healthy profit-taking.
That’s distribution into late FOMO buyers.
What the chart is telling us 📉
Price is deep in premium: $0.476 vs equilibrium at $0.369
Heavy supply overhead from the last bearish order block ($0.398–$0.375)
Yes, structure flipped bullish (CHoCH)… but the rejection at $0.5689 formed a lower high
Rejection came with above-average volume, confirming sellers were active at the top
This combo is classic: strong rally → euphoric buying → smart money selling into strength.
Indicators: stretched and conflicted ⚖️
Bearish pressure
RSI & MFI deep overbought
Stochastic rolling over
Price far above equilibrium
ADX extreme → trends usually cool here, not extend
Bullish context
MACD still positive (lagging, reflects past momentum)
Long-term ascending trendline near $0.30 still intact
EMAs below price acting as support
The issue? Momentum indicators lag, while price + volume show real-time selling.
Trade idea 🎯
Primary scenario: pullback to value
Watch for a 4H close below $0.442 to confirm weakness
Shorts favored in the $0.45–$0.48 zone
Targets:
$0.369 (equilibrium)
$0.315 (FVG fill)
$0.263 (swing low / demand)
Alternate scenario
If price reclaims and holds above $0.442 with volume, we could see another push toward $0.52–$0.57 — but that’s the lower-probability path right now.
Bottom line
This isn’t a crash call.
It’s a mean reversion setup.
$PIPPIN is stretched, overheated, and rejecting hard.
Don’t chase green candles. Let price come back to value or prove continuation.
RSI at 99.4… This Parabolic Move Is on Borrowed Time ⏰
This is one of those rare extremes you don’t see often — and they usually don’t end well for late longs. RSI at 99.4 and MFI at 94.5 scream exhaustion. Price is stretched ~39% above fair value, deep in premium territory. That rubber band is tight.
What the chart is saying:
👉 Price: $33.93 vs equilibrium around $24.44
👉 Heavy rejection near the highs → clear signs of distribution
👉 Upper wicks + declining volume = weak breakout energy
👉 Last major supply sits around $24.2–$23.8
Yes, there’s still a rising trendline below, but at these levels, those lower wicks look more like trapped late buyers than real accumulation. $HYPE
Bias: Fade the move, don’t chase it.
Primary idea — Mean reversion short:
Trigger: Rejection here or a clean breakdown below $26.42
Targets:
👉 $24.2 (first major support)
👉 $23–$22.8 (FVG zone)
👉 $20.5 (swing low / trendline base)
Invalidation: Strong reclaim and hold above $26.42
Could it squeeze higher first? Sure. But with momentum this overheated and price this far from value, risk favors a pullback, not continuation.