Political disagreement over funding for the Department of Homeland Security has raised the likelihood of a partial government shutdown before the end of January. Some prediction markets currently place this probability very high.
A shutdown isn’t just a political headline — past ones have slowed economic activity, delayed paychecks, paused contracts and approvals, and created uncertainty that ripples through markets.
Recent tensions between federal officials and local leaders in places like Minneapolis have added to the pressure on Congress to reach agreement. Congressional debate over funding bills tied to these disputes could make a shutdown more likely if progress stalls.
When uncertainty increases like this: • Fixed-income markets tend to move first • Risk assets like equities react next • Highly volatile assets like crypto often feel the sharpest swings
Right now, market pricing doesn’t fully reflect the risk of a funding gap, but conditions could shift rapidly.
Stay informed — changes in legislation and political dynamics can have real effects on prices.
U.S. sessions haven’t shown clear direction. We get volatility after the open, then price often fades back by the close.
ETF flows are large but inconsistent, offering little conviction.
I’ve felt this way since mid-December—there’s no need to force trades here. A few selective setups are fine, but overtrading in this market is likely to hurt.
The coming days could be a major turning point. Risk is elevated, and there’s no clear upside scenario right now.
Key warning signs are flashing: • Equity valuations are at extreme historical levels • Long-term valuation metrics are near zones last seen before major crashes • Capital is rotating into metals like gold and silver
Pressure is building further: • A large share of U.S. debt needs refinancing soon • Trade tensions are rising again • Political and legal uncertainty is adding stress
Big money is preparing for volatility—not chasing upside.
Markets don’t peak when fear is high. They peak when risk is ignored.
Opportunity comes later, when panic takes over.
I’ll be watching closely and sharing updates ahead of the move.
Gold has been hitting new highs while stocks, crypto, and the dollar weaken. That combination has appeared before major market resets.
History shows a pattern: • When gold peaks during periods of fear, sharp corrections often follow • Past cycles saw gold fall 20–40% after strong ATH runs • These moves were followed by long, frustrating consolidations
Today, the backdrop looks familiar: • Rising geopolitical and economic stress • Record-level U.S. debt • Weakening dollar • Capital rotating into metals for safety
When too much liquidity crowds into one “safe” asset, reversals can be violent.
Gold strength doesn’t guarantee safety—it can be a warning.
Risk management matters here more than narratives.
This year, my focus is on accumulating ETH on dips, ideally all the way down into the $1900–$2000 zone if the market gives the opportunity.
Markets might feel boring and illiquid right now, but once this phase ends, the next expansion will be much larger and stronger than what most people are prepared for — even compared to metals.
This is a 12–18 month vision, not a short-term trade. (Consider this more of a investment thesis rather than a 25x long trade thesis)
Whether this chop phase ends next month or in six months, a major bullish phase will follow.
◦ ATH set at $126.2k ◦ Drop to $80.6k = manipulation ◦ Range formation (sideways movement) ◦ Clear liquidity play ◦ Sharp LONG move ◦ New ATHs, $BTC around $130k
NOTE THIS PLAN, SEE YOU IN A MONTH...
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