We are going to enter a period, soon, in which big bulls will flip into big beras. Or already are.
The very same that were looking for a complacency shoulder to above 100K+ BTC or new ATHs will be calling for 40K or lower & the entire 2026 to be bearish.
The most entertaining outcome is the most likely.
Also plenty of perma bears that finally "nailed it" at the top will fail to flip bullish in time. Just like they failed to do so at the 2025 April lows or after (despite claiming otherwise, they simply were bearish the whole time)
One of my biggest mistakes in my trading in my past was not accepting a loss at my pre-defined level & moving my stop loss. Or not knowing my pre-defined level.
What should've been a small loss, turned out to be a big one, which often turned into me trying to make up for my mistake quickly which often led to a further loss.
Every once in a while when I tried to cheat that it always hurt me.
Getting rid of this mentality has done wonders for me. As I believe it will do to all of you.
It goes against our natural behavior. We hate being wrong. We are taught at school that being wrong is penalized by a bad mark.
So generally when the market moves against you, we do not want to admit it --> move SL.
Yet by admiting our wrongs & failiures we grow the most.
It is twisted schematic in society. Kill those bad habits & start growing with us. On the longevity path.
My bias has remained the same for a while now and still stands for the crypto market.
There was no signal to flip bullish HTF.
We got the sell-off in November, then the bounce. Range followed, and even with the fake LTF bait to the upside and now the sell-off happened.
Target is still the lower blue.
I cannot wait to get bullish on the space again but as of right now, not seeing it.
My best hopes are that the market "finishes the job quickly" so that we can restart even quicker. Cheering for any upside here, as I expected, only prolongs the inevitable.
That said, looking for counter views & narratives. Or further confirming ones that I perhaps missed. Lmk in the comments ✍️
Keep the longevity approach & stay calm. Wishing you all a great week ahead.
🚨 WARNING: WE ARE ONE STEP AWAY FROM THE BIGGEST COLLAPSE… AND THE MARKET IS NOT READY
This is not an exaggeration. Not fear bait. The global setup is turning extremely fragile. Every major tariff event since early 2025 has triggered the same outcome. February dump. October dump. January dump. Even the Supreme Court decision will not change the trajectory because tariffs approved or cancelled both lead to the same reaction. Confidence breaks and liquidity tightens.
We have now entered the pressure loop where headlines are released while markets are closed. Fear builds with no liquidity to absorb it. Once futures reopen the emotional flush normally arrives because traders react to days of tension in the span of minutes. Shortly after the initial shock investors remember tariffs are scheduled weeks out so panic cools but stress remains. Midweek buyers return because there is still room for negotiation and the narrative of progress appears again. This creates the illusion of stability until officials begin teasing trade talks which eventually leads to a headline that pushes markets up again. The same cycle has repeated many times since 2025 and big institutions continue capturing the flow while retail gets trapped.
This is how the largest wealth transfer forms. The system feeds on volatility and most participants do not understand they are being played inside a predictable psychological loop. With uncertainty rising across global indices and major regions showing synchronized drawdowns the risk is reaching a critical point.
If you hold any asset especially BTC be extremely careful with leverage. #Bitcoin reacts faster and harder to funding stress and tariff shocks often spill directly into crypto liquidity. Wealth is rarely created when the crowd feels safe. It forms when fear reaches the point where even you hesitate to buy.
Chart just exploded to like $7k then $2.7k in minutes on Binance, then crashed right back down. Couldn’t even sell at the top — classic thin liquidity pump or straight manipulation/glitch.
Now it’s chilling back at normal price 150$. One sec you’re dreaming of millions, next sec it’s gone. Alt season vibes are wild af, nobody catching these moves without getting wrecked 😂
Merry Christmas crypto fam, stay safe out there 🚀🔥
History not always repeats, but when this setup appears, it usually means one of the two assets is mispriced relative to the other.
This time, our view is fairly simple: Gold looks stretched relative to Bitcoin. And when these imbalances unwind, it's typically through rotation, not collapse.
What we like about this lens is that it reframes how we think about "bear markets". Instead of only asking how long BTC/USD has been below the 50 week SMA, we're also looking at relative value. That framework worked well in past cycles (reminder: markets can change).
BTC underperforming Gold this aggressively doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin is broken. It more likely suggests Gold has become crowded.
What seems different this cycle is the speed. We've only been below the 50w SMA for 16 weeks, yet RSI is already getting crushed. In prior cycles, it took 40/50+ weeks to reach similar conditions.
If that matters, the reset may not be as drawn out this time. It could be shorter, sharper, and rotation driven, rather than the slow grind most are conditioned to expect.
No guarantees. Just another angle. Sometimes, those are the ones worth paying attention to.