Bitcoin is showing clear signs of stress, but also classic late-cycle behavior. • Funding rates on Binance just hit multi-month lows → leverage fear • Daily & weekly RSI at extreme oversold levels • On-chain metrics (Yardstick, Mayer Multiple) sit in historical value zones This doesn’t mean the bottom is guaranteed. But conditions like these rarely persist for long. In this phase, patience and risk management matter more than prediction.
Bitcoin is at extreme conditions. Oversold RSI, heavy liquidations, and emotional selling define this phase. Extremes create opportunity but only after structure confirms. Discipline > emotion.
1️⃣ Sentiment is deeply pessimistic Polls show extreme fear, historically seen near local bottoms rather than tops.
2️⃣ Liquidity has largely been taken Price already swept major liquidity zones. Further downside is possible, but marginal selling pressure is weakening.
3️⃣ Macro data is turning supportive Manufacturing PMI moving back above 50 + large players reallocating into BTC = medium-term tailwinds.
📌 Conclusion: This is not a confirmation of a reversal yet, but risk/reward is improving compared to the past weeks.
ON-CHAIN INSIGHT: $13B in Liquidation Liquidity Building Up Around BTC
Bitcoin is compressing inside a critical liquidity zone.
On-chain data highlights nearly $13 billion in liquidation levels clustered on both sides of price action — with downside pressure around $75,000 and upside triggers near $105,000.
This setup isn’t random. When liquidity stacks this tightly, it becomes a magnet.
Large players don’t chase price — they target where forced liquidations sit.
A decisive move beyond either level could unlock a chain reaction, accelerating momentum as positions are flushed and volatility expands.
The real question isn’t if volatility returns — it’s which side breaks first.
➡️ Below $75K: downside momentum strengthens
➡️ Above $105K: bullish continuation opens up
Market structure suggests a high-impact move is approaching.
Bitcoin is trading under pressure as macro uncertainty dominates short-term price action.
• Rising U.S. shutdown odds • Heavy long liquidations • Whales active on both sides • Spot demand still selective
This is not a trend environment.
It’s a liquidity + positioning market.
Volatility is driven by leverage resets, not by conviction yet. Patience and risk management matter more than prediction here. Waiting for confirmation > forcing trades.
Recent outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs point to a shift in institutional positioning, not necessarily a loss of long-term conviction.
When ETF inflows slow or reverse, the market temporarily loses a layer of buy-side support that had been absorbing supply. This can increase short-term pressure, especially in volatile conditions. What matters most now is persistence:
• Short-lived outflows often reflect risk management • Sustained outflows can weaken structure until demand returns
For now, this looks more like repositioning than structural abandonment.
Context and follow-through will define the next phase.
2021 was driven by exceptional liquidity conditions, not a repeatable playbook.
Markets respond to liquidity first, narratives later.
A few key points often overlooked:
• QT only fully ended in late 2025 • Liquidity rotations take time — especially toward altcoins • We’re likely in an acceptance phase, not a failure phase
Trading old assumptions in a new cycle is costly.
Structure and patience matter more than predictions.