CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data from Binance shows the current values related to liquidity behavior and trading pressure on Bitcoin within the platform, with Bitcoin trading at around $88,000.

In contrast, the Vol Delta value reached approximately –$59.6 million. This negative reading means that market sell orders exceeded buy orders by this amount during the measured period. Numerically, this represents significant selling pressure; however, its true significance becomes apparent when compared to price action. Despite this large negative figure, no sharp price collapse was observed, indicating strong liquidity absorption within the order book.

The imbalance (PCT) registers a value of approximately –0.205%, which is very low in terms of order-flow imbalance. This reading confirms that the market is not experiencing a sharp gap between supply and demand, but rather that selling pressure remains relatively balanced, without any structural imbalance that could lead to an accelerated decline.

From a statistical perspective, the 24-hour Vol Delta Z-score shows a reading of approximately –1.72. This value indicates that the negative volume delta is higher than its 24-hour average, yet it remains within a historically normal range. Such readings typically point to short-term tactical selling pressure rather than a phase of panic or widespread forced liquidation.

these values reflect genuine but controlled selling pressure, characterized by elevated selling liquidity, limited imbalance, and moderate statistical deviation. This combination often defines rebalancing phases, during which momentum temporarily weakens without a breakdown in market structure.

Written by Arab Chain

Rising political uncertainty in the U.S. likely triggered a short-term risk-off move. The probability of another government shutdown has climbed to 78% in prediction markets, with funding set to expire on January 30, 2026. As bipartisan negotiations stall, political risk has once again become a near-term drag on market sentiment.

In this environment, Bitcoin fell below $87,000. Around $170 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated within 60 minutes, and roughly $320 million over four hours. Nearly $40 billion in total crypto market value disappeared in a short period. The move occurred during thin liquidity, suggesting a derivatives-led deleveraging rather than broad spot selling.

Liquidations occur when futures positions fall below maintenance margin and are forcibly closed by exchanges. Leveraged longs—commonly used by short-term traders and hedging or arbitrage participants—had been built on expectations of a 2026 uptrend. During downturns, these forced closures hit the market as market orders, which can accelerate price declines when order books are shallow.

Open Interest (OI) helps clarify this phase. OI measures the total size of outstanding futures positions and reflects how much leverage is embedded in the market. When prices fall alongside declining OI, it indicates that liquidations and position unwinds are driving the move rather than a shift in fundamentals.

On-chain data shows aggregate OI near $28.4B, well below the ~$47B peak in late 2025, indicating that leverage had already been reduced. Still, OI has stabilized and slightly rebounded in early 2026, leaving room for further volatility during corrections.

The key focus is not the price level itself, but what follows: whether selling pressure fades after liquidations, whether spot demand absorbs supply as participants return, and whether leverage metrics normalize. Observing time and participation remains critical for assessing the next phase.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

On-chain data reveals a significant behavioral shift on the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. For the week starting January 19, 2026, Binance recorded massive capital outflows, marking the highest negative weekly netflow since November 10.

According to the multichain weekly netflow data, the scale of the outflows is substantial:

Bitcoin (BTC): approximately $1.97 billion net outflow

Ethereum (ETH): approximately $1.34 billion net outflow

Tether (USDT – ERC20): approximately $3.11 billion net outflow

Interestingly, while the Ethereum network experienced a large stablecoin withdrawal, the Tron network (USDT-TRC20) recorded a positive inflow of around $905 million, indicating capital rotation across networks rather than a complete exit from centralized exchanges.

A liquidity removal of this magnitude—exceeding $6 billion across major assets—is generally interpreted through two primary lenses:

Bullish interpretation: large holders and institutions may be moving assets into self-custody or cold storage, potentially setting the stage for a future supply shock.

Risk-off interpretation: exchange-specific concerns or broader market FUD may be driving capital away from Binance.

The key point is that both risk assets (BTC, ETH) and stablecoins exited simultaneously, which often precedes elevated volatility rather than immediate directional clarity.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Active Sending Addresses on the Tron network has hit a new All-Time High of 3.1 million. This impressive surge indicates sustained growth in demand and network utility, independent of short-term market volatility. While the $TRX price consolidates around $0.29, this divergence between network activity and price could be a strong indicator of an upcoming bullish move, as the network fundamentals are stronger than ever. 🚀

Written by CryptoOnchain

The global risk map is being redrawn. An earthquake in the financial markets reveals a historic capital migration, redefining the concepts of safety and danger. While the traditional pillars of the American economy waver, a metallic glow attracts investors: gold and silver, which not only break records but ascend as the new bastions in a world where the dollar loses its status as an absolute safe haven.

THE NUMBERS TELL THE STORY OF A DESPERATE SEARCH FOR SOLID GROUND

◾ Silver → Breaks the historical barrier, skyrocketing to US$100 per troy ounce.

◾ Gold → Vertiginous climb towards US$5k per troy ounce, currently worth US$4.9K. The metal followed with a staggering weekly appreciation of almost 8%.

◾ Dollar → Faces its greatest weekly devaluation since May of last year, when the American economy was still feeling the effects of Donald Trump's extreme tariff hike, which was in April. This is no coincidence. The exit from the dollar leads a bit of money to gold.

◾ Crypto Counterpoint → The flight is selective. Bitcoin ETFs in the USA bleed US$1.33 billion in one week, the largest outflow since February 2025. However, as discussed in the previous analysis, we have the resilience of the miners, who find themselves in a zone of operational neutrality, which prevents the price of BTC from collapsing. In short, it is clear that in the short term, the search is for the classic refuge, not the innovative risk.

CONCLUSION

We witness a paradigm inversion. The flight is no longer to U.S. Treasury bonds, or to assets tied to American risk and volatility. Capital seeks concreteness: gold and silver. This movement carries its own paradox. The concentrated race toward a limited market makes these metals volatile, their current shine overshadowed by the risk of a sharp short-term correction, as they stand in a high-risk zone by price action. Yet, we see a transformed world: the refuge now wears a metallic face, demanding caution from those who seek it.

Written by GugaOnChain

When #Bitcoin Supply in Profit drops below 70% and fails to recover above 80%, it is historically a sign of a potential further decline and often a confirmation of a bear market. Let’s monitor it closely.

Written by elcryptotavo

Bitcoin’s on-chain P&L structure has shifted, but it has not broken. Spot trades near $88k, while the realised price sits around $56k, so the representative holder remains comfortably in profit. Price is no longer parabolic, yet it still sits almost 60% above the aggregate on-chain cost basis, a compression of profitability, not its destruction.

That compression is most visible in breadth. Roughly two-thirds of the supply remains in profit, and one-third now sits in loss. Earlier in the year, almost every coin was in the green; now, a meaningful minority is underwater and therefore more price-sensitive. However, these loss levels are still far from the 80–90% extremes that have historically marked cycle lows.

Valuation has also normalised. The MVRV ratio has cooled to about 1.5x, well below the 3–4x “blow-off” band but above the sub-1x levels that have historically signalled deep value in prior bears. NUPL tells a similar story: the market has migrated from euphoria into an “optimism/anxiety” zone where gains exist, but conviction is weaker.

Finally, Net Realised Profit/Loss has flipped from persistent profits to choppy, modest losses. Realised P&L now prints negative often enough to matter, but we have yet to see the sustained, outsized loss spikes that typically signal broad capitulation.

Taken together, these signals describe an early-bear or digestion regime: profit cushions are thinner, stress is building at the margin, but the cycle has not fully reset. For professional allocators, this backdrop argues for smaller net-long exposure, greater use of relative-value and volatility strategies, and patience in waiting either for renewed momentum or for a clearer capitulation opportunity.

Written by Novaque Research

There is an amazing change in the funding fee.

The detailed explanation of the chart is just this.

Historically, it has been wrong only once.

Please look at the change in ROC.

This is the content that I want to explain and talk about.

Written by HaDaliO_iHDWu

The LTH–STH MVRV Ratio continues to trade below its 365-day average, signaling that Bitcoin is still operating within a bearish holder regime. This metric compares the profitability of long-term holders versus short-term holders, offering a structural view of market health beyond price action alone.

Historically, sustained bullish regimes only emerge after this ratio reclaims and holds above its 365-day trend. That crossover does not mark the start of a rally, but rather the acceptance of a bullish market, where short-term holders regain profitability and new capital enters with confidence. This transition typically occurs with a delay, after liquidity improves and demand becomes persistent.

At present, the ratio remains meaningfully below its annual baseline, indicating that recent buyers are still under pressure while long-term holders maintain a profit advantage. This imbalance suggests rallies are being driven by short-term momentum rather than broad participation or strong spot demand.

In previous cycles, similar conditions were associated with consolidation phases and corrective environments, not sustained bull markets. For a confirmed regime shift, the market needs stronger liquidity inflows, improved short-term holder profitability, and a decisive move of the LTH–STH MVRV Ratio above its 365-day average.

Until that occurs, the data suggests Bitcoin remains in a bearish holder regime, with a bullish market requiring further confirmation through liquidity expansion and structural demand recovery.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Recent on-chain data reveals a significant development within the Ethereum network. The 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Ethereum's Active Addresses has surged to an unprecedented level of 718K. This marks a new historical all-time high (ATH), signaling a massive spike in user demand and network interaction.

Crucially, the chart highlights a distinct Bullish Divergence between price action and network activity. While the price of Ethereum (ETH) remains in a consolidation phase, the number of active participants has skyrocketed. Historically, such divergences often serve as leading indicators for bullish price momentum, as fundamental network growth tends to precede price appreciation.

This surge suggests that despite market volatility, the underlying utility of the Ethereum blockchain is stronger than ever. Whether driven by Layer-2 adoption, renewed DeFi activity, or fresh retail interest, the data indicates that the network is vibrant. The market may soon begin to re-price ETH to reflect this record-breaking fundamental growth.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Data from Binance shows that the XRP reserve on the platform has reached approximately 2.74 billion XRP, its highest level since last November. This is a notable development after a prolonged period of consecutive declines in the platform’s supply, which reached its lowest point last December at 2.63 billion XRP.

During November and December, Binance’s XRP reserve experienced a sharp decline, reflecting a significant outflow of the cryptocurrency from the exchange. This behavior was consistent with a repositioning phase among investors, as many preferred to hold assets in external wallets, either for long-term storage or to mitigate risks associated with exchange custody. Consequently, the reserve fell to relatively low levels, establishing a new structural base for the market.

However, the current reading indicates a gradual return of liquidity to Binance, pushing the reserve to its highest level since November. This increase does not necessarily imply immediate selling pressure; rather, it often reflects the market’s readiness for a period of heightened activity, whether through spot trading or the use of XRP as a working asset in derivatives markets. Historically, such increases in reserves are often preceded by periods of higher trading volume.

The most important aspect of this reading is its timing it comes after a clear period of supply depletion, meaning the market has shifted from a liquidity-scarce environment to a phase of more measured reinvestment.

Written by Arab Chain

The Exchange BTC Leverage Pulse, which normalizes Bitcoin open interest against exchange stablecoin reserves, shows that leverage risk has materially cooled despite elevated price levels. This metric captures how aggressively traders are deploying leverage relative to available collateral, offering a cleaner view of systemic risk than open interest alone.

Following multiple leverage expansions throughout 2024 and mid-2025, the Pulse has sharply compressed. The ST-ELR has dropped below its 20-day moving average, with the leverage ratio now hovering near the lower band of its historical range. This signals that open interest has been reduced faster than stablecoin reserves, indicating capital is available but leverage is being actively unwound.

Historically, major drawdowns tend to occur when leverage ratios push above the upper band, reflecting crowded positioning and fragile market structure. That condition is absent today. Instead, the current setup resembles prior post-deleveraging phases where forced liquidations cleared excess risk without triggering broader structural stress.

Importantly, this decline in leverage is occurring while Bitcoin price remains elevated, suggesting the move is driven by position reduction rather than panic selling. Traders are operating with smaller position sizes, lowering cascade risk and improving market resilience.

From a market structure perspective, reduced leverage during high-price regimes often precedes either consolidation or healthier continuation, as rallies driven by spot demand are structurally stronger than leverage-led expansions.

In short, the Exchange BTC Leverage Pulse indicates a risk reset, not risk escalation. Leverage is no longer the dominant driver of price, lowering liquidation vulnerability and shifting the market toward a more stable footing despite recent volatility.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has recently recorded a significant surge, signaling potential selling pressure from major market players.

According to recent data, the Exchange Whale Ratio (All Exchanges) has hit 0.54, marking its highest level since August 2024. Concurrently, on Binance, this metric has climbed to 0.443, reaching a high not seen since March 2025.

Why does this matter?

An elevated Whale Ratio typically indicates that a large portion of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges is coming from whales (the top 10 inflow transactions). Historically, when whales move assets onto exchanges, it is often with the intention to sell or use coins as margin for derivatives trading, which can lead to heightened volatility or price corrections.

With Bitcoin currently trading around the $88,200 level, this sudden uptick in whale activity serves as a caution for short-term traders to tighten their risk management. If this trend persists, the market could face increased selling pressure, potentially testing lower support levels in the near term.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s Exchange In-House Flow (Total) across all exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2022, reaching a record-low zone around 14K BTC. This metric tracks internal Bitcoin transfers within exchange-controlled wallets and is commonly interpreted as a proxy for operational activity and short-term distribution readiness.

A sustained decline in this indicator suggests that exchanges are moving significantly less BTC internally, reflecting reduced trading preparation, weaker market-making activity, and overall liquidity contraction.

Focusing on Binance, while Exchange In-House Flow (Binance) has not printed a new all-time low, it remains dangerously close to its historical floor at approximately 2.7K BTC. This alignment at depressed levels across both aggregate and single-exchange data reinforces the narrative of structural inactivity rather than a temporary fluctuation.

From a market dynamics perspective, low in-house flows often coincide with increased holding behavior and diminished arbitrage activity. While this can reduce immediate sell pressure, it also implies thinner order books and heightened sensitivity to external demand or macro-driven shocks.

Overall, the current configuration points to a “liquidity pause” phase in Bitcoin’s market structure. Historically, such periods tend to precede sharp directional moves once capital rotation and exchange activity begin to normalize, making this metric critical to monitor in the coming weeks.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Highest amount of realized losses in three years.

Capitulation precedes bottom relevant to price.

The last time this occurred in Bitcoin, the price was trading at $28,000 after a brief correction period that lasted about a year.

Written by G a a h

The current Bitcoin market is best described as a range-bound adjustment phase rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend. Directional bias remains conditionally neutral to slightly constructive, but price levels themselves are no longer the primary driver of short-term behavior. Instead, when the market moves has become more important than where it trades.

An analysis of Price Action on Each Day of the Week shows a consistent concentration of volatility during the middle of the week, particularly from Tuesday to Wednesday. During these sessions, short-term trends are more likely to form and persist. In contrast, Saturdays tend to exhibit compressed ranges and limited directional follow-through, with price oscillating within narrow bands.

This pattern reflects differences in market participant composition rather than shifts in fundamental supply and demand. On weekends, institutional traders, arbitrage desks, and macro-driven participants are largely inactive. While order books become thinner, the absence of new large flows also limits directional pressure, resulting in constrained price movement rather than instability.

On-chain data supports this interpretation. Exchange balances show no abrupt inflows or outflows, leverage remains broadly neutral, and liquidation activity is muted. Together, these signals suggest that the market is not under stress but is instead lacking the catalysts needed to break out of its current range.

The key risk to this view would be a simultaneous increase in exchange inflows and leverage expansion, even outside typical high-activity periods. Absent such signals, the base case remains a structurally range-bound market where timing, not price targets, offers the clearest insight into short-term dynamics.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin Growth Rate Difference: Bears are losing strength, but is it enough for a trend reversal?

Bitcoin has been technically in a bear season since October 30th.

What is Growth Rate Difference?

This metric measures the difference between Bitcoin's Market Cap growth rate and Realized Cap growth rate.

Market Cap represents speculation, while Realized Cap represents actual capital inflows. Positive values indicate bull markets where speculative demand dominates, while negative values signal bear/consolidation periods where price grows slower than actual capital flows or declines.

Simply put, if price growth outpaces real money inflows it's a bull market, if slower it's a bear market.

Conclusion

We've been in negative territory since October 30th, which technically means bear season.

However, we've moved from -0.0013 on November 22nd to -0.0009 today. Bears are losing strength, pressure is easing, but we haven't broken above zero yet. So the correction continues, momentum is weakening for bears, but we can see bulls haven't taken control. Patience is key.

Until we break the zero line, this isn't a recovery—it's just bears getting exhausted.

Do you think the trend can break above 0 (bull territory) before the end of Q1?

Written by burakkesmeci

Since the start of the year, the market’s behavior appears to have changed. Notably, the previous price decline occurred after the 72-hour moving average of funding rates turned negative, suggesting short sellers were convinced enough to pay interest. With funding rates now returning to those previous highs, I personally find the current environment risky. There is a real possibility that the unwinding of these crowded long positions could trigger a decline, warranting a cautious approach.

Written by nino

📰 Daily Market Update:

📊 [Binance] Multi-Asset Netflow Cumulative – $Value

This chart represents the cumulative dollar value of netflows for major crypto assets on Binance:

📈 Positive netflow → assets moving into the exchange

📉 Negative netflow → assets moving out of the exchange

These movements help us track investor intent and liquidity positioning.

💵 First: USDT Flow Analysis

🔬Key Observations:

📉 USDT cumulative netflow on Binance declined sharply to $4.6B

📉 The downtrend in USDT netflow started on January 8

📉 Binance USDT reserves dropped from $9.16B on January 7 to $4.6B today

📉 Total reduction exceeds $4.5B in less than two weeks

₿ Second: BTC Flow Analysis

🔬Key Observations:

📈 BTC cumulative netflow to Binance started increasing on January 15

📈 This coincided with a short-term BTC price recovery above $95,000

📈 Since January 15, BTC inflows increased by approximately $1.16B

📊 Fed Net Liquidity – Macro Pressure Builds

Fed net liquidity is generally calculated as the Federal Reserve's total assets minus the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) and reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) balances.

Why It Matters:

📈 Liquidity expansion → supports risk assets (stocks, Crypto)

📉 Liquidity contraction → pressures risk assets

🔬Key Observations:

📉 On January 21, Fed Net Liquidity dropped from $5.8T to $5.71T

📉 That’s a $90B contraction in system-wide liquidity

🧠 Final Conclusion

Historically, periods where:

Stablecoins flow out of spot exchanges

Bitcoin flows into spot exchanges

tend to coincide with profit-taking, distribution, and reduced exposure to crypto assets.

⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.

Written by Amr Taha

The chart shows two key indicators:

1. Accumulator Address Demand – red line

2. Liquidity Inventory Ratio (Month) – blue line

Retail investors do not typically withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges.

These withdrawals are mainly done by whales (large holders), and their buying pressure is reflected in the Accumulator Address Demand metric.

This indicator is currently at an all-time extreme level.

It can be described as an extreme value, suggesting that whale FOMO is at a very intense level.

As a result, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (Month) has reached another extreme value of 3.8 when looking only at U.S. exchanges.

This indicates that a large amount of Bitcoin has left exchanges for the first time in years, while Accumulator Address Demand remains elevated.

A value of 3.8 theoretically implies a Bitcoin supply shock in about four months.

Of course, this does not mean a supply shock will actually occur.

Rather, it highlights how strong whale buying pressure currently is.

This metric also suggests that a further bullish trend could be ahead.

Written by CoinNiel