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The contraction of the Fed's balance sheet will lead to a persistent liquidity crisis; and now 2/3 of the new dollars are flowing into the asset side. To reverse this distorted allocation, the Fed will compress banks' excess reserves, forcing banks to lend, reducing easy interest earnings, and allowing funds to flow from the financial system to the real economy and consumption.
As a result, the market direction is beginning to shift from risk assets to defensively positioned basic consumer sectors with ample cash flow, which is the expected speculation of the Fed's monetary policy.
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