Asterfound

Bitcoin's Hash Ribbon Just Flashed the SAME Signal That Called the $15K Bottom (2022) and $49K Bottom (2024). While everyone panics about Bitcoin trading at $88K, one of crypto's most reliable on-chain indicators just triggered—and historically, what happens NEXT could shock casual traders.
What Just Happened🚨:
Bitcoin's Hash Ribbon indicator flashed a capitulation signal after the network hashrate crashed 20% from its October peak (1.2 ZH/s → 950 EH/s). Mining difficulty is set to drop 17% on January 22nd—the LARGEST difficulty decline since China's mining ban in July 2021.
But here's what most traders miss: This is EXACTLY when smart money positions for the next leg up.
What Is the Hash Ribbon?
Created by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, the Hash Ribbon tracks Bitcoin miner health using two simple metrics:
• 30-day moving average of hashrate (short-term trend)
• 60-day moving average of hashrate (long-term trend)
The Signal:
- When the 30-day MA crosses BELOW the 60-day MA = Miner Capitulation (dark red phase)
- When the 30-day MA crosses BACK ABOVE the 60-day MA = Capitulation Ending (light red → white)
Translation: Weak miners are shutting down (selling Bitcoin to survive), then strong miners emerge (buying opportunity forms).
Why This Matters?:
Miners Are Bitcoin's "Forced Sellers"
Unlike retail traders, miners MUST sell Bitcoin to cover:
- Electricity costs ($40/petahash-second per day breakeven threshold)
- Hardware investments
- Operational expenses
When profitability collapses (it hit $35/petahash in November—a multi-year low), miners are forced to: Shut down unprofitable rigs (hashrate drops), Liquidate and Bitcoin reserves (sell pressure spikes)
Exit the market entirely (weak hands capitulate)
Once this selling exhausts itself, a MASSIVE supply overhang gets removed from the market.
Historical Performance🎯:
The Hash Ribbon has called EVERY major Bitcoin bottom since 2012:
November 2022 (FTX Collapse):
Signal triggered at $15,000
Bitcoin rallied to $22,000 within weeks
Eventually hit $100,000 by January 2025 (+567%)
August 2024 (Yen Carry Trade Unwind):
Signal triggered at $49,000
Bitcoin rallied to $100,000 by January 2025 (+104%)
June 2022 (Bear Market Bottom):
Signal triggered during $17K-$20K range
Preceded entire 2023-2024 bull run
May 2021 (China Mining Ban):
Signal triggered at $30,000
Bitcoin recovered to $69,000 by November (+130%)
Current Signal (January 2026):
Triggered after drop to $81,000 (November low)
Bitcoin already bouncing to $90,000+ range
Pattern suggests 30-100%+ upside over next 6-12 months
WHY Does This Work?🤷
Three fundamental reasons:
1. Supply Shock Removal
When miners capitulate and shut down, daily Bitcoin selling pressure from mining operations DISAPPEARS. The network still produces ~900 BTC/day, but it's concentrated among profitable miners who can HODL instead of immediately selling.
2. Difficulty Adjustment Creates Profitability
As hashrate drops 20%, difficulty drops 17% to compensate. This means remaining miners can mine blocks with LESS energy and computing power, instantly improving margins and reducing sell pressure.
3. Market Psychology Reset
Miner capitulation signals the "maximum pain" phase. Retail is panicking, leverage is flushed, and weak hands have exited. This creates the FOUNDATION for the next rally.
The Current Setup (January 2026)🚧:
Bearish Pressures Causing Capitulation:
April 2024 halving cut block rewards 50% (6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC)
Hash price collapsed below $35 (worst levels since 2021)
Trump tariffs threaten mining hardware supply chains
October flash crash dropped BTC from $125K → $80K (-36%)
Macro uncertainty (Fed policy, government shutdown fears)
Miners pivoting to AI/HPC (Riot Platforms selling BTC to fund AI infrastructure)
Bullish Signals Emerging:
Hash Ribbon buy signal triggered (30-day MA crossing back above 60-day)
Difficulty dropping 17% = instant profitability boost
Bitcoin price recovering from $81K → $90K already
VanEck analysis: "Miner stress historically precedes renewed price momentum"
Inefficient miners exiting = network strengthening
What Smart Traders Are Doing RIGHT NOW:
• Strategy #1: The DCA Accumulator
Using miner capitulation as confirmation to dollar-cost-average into BTC at $85K-$92K range, targeting $120K-$150K by Q3-Q4 2026.
• Strategy #2: The Range Trader
Buying support at $85K-$88K, selling resistance at $94K-$100K, using Hash Ribbon as confirmation the downside risk is minimizing.
• Strategy #3: The Patient Holder
Viewing this as similar to the $49K August 2024 setup that led to $100K+ in 5 months. Holding through volatility with 6-12 month time horizon.
Critical Levels to Watch👀:
a. Support Zones:
$85,300 (previous low + ETF cost basis area)
$80,000 (November psychological low)
$75,000 (extreme bearish scenario)
b. Resistance Zones:
$94,500 (key breakout level)
$100,000 (psychological round number)
$108,000 (previous consolidation zone)
Hashrate Recovery Confirmation:
Watch for the 30-day MA to FIRMLY cross above the 60-day MA and stay there for 7+ days. This confirms the capitulation phase is truly over.
The Contrarian Truth:
Everyone wants to buy Bitcoin at $150K when CNBC is screaming "new all-time highs."
Nobody wants to buy when:
🍁Miners are capitulating
🍁Headlines scream "crypto winter"
🍁Hashrate is crashing
🍁Fear & Greed Index shows "Extreme Fear"
But that's EXACTLY when the Hash Ribbon signals opportunity.
Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
Charles Edwards (Hash Ribbon creator): "When miners give up, it is possibly the most powerful Bitcoin buy signal ever."
🤔
Are you buying the signal that called the last 4 major bottoms?
Or are you waiting for confirmation when Bitcoin is already at $120K and miners are profitable again?
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. The Hash Ribbon is speaking. Are you listening?🗿
#bitcoin #hashrate #MiningDifficulty

Bitcoin down to $87K. Your portfolio bleeding red. FOMO screaming "BUY THE DIP!" while fear whispers "SELL EVERYTHING!"👀
Sound familiar? Let's fix your trading psychology RIGHT NOW.
The Current Market Reality📉:
• BTC range: $85K-$94K (most analysts agree)
• ETF outflows: $1.3B in one week
• Regulatory uncertainty: Clarity Act delayed
• Sentiment: "Extreme fear" (Fear & Greed Index)
🎯 The Winning Trader's Mindset:
1. Plans Beat Emotions EVERY Time
❌ Wrong: "It's crashing! Panic sell!"
✅ Right: "My stop-loss is at $84K. I stick to the plan."
Define your entry, exit, and stop-loss BEFORE opening positions. No exceptions.
2. Position Sizing Saves Accounts
Never risk more than 1-2% of your portfolio on a single trade.
Example: $10,000 portfolio = max $100-200 risk per trade
Even if you're wrong 5 times in a row, you're still in the game.
3. Understand Support & Resistance
Those $84K and $94K levels aren't random:
$84K = Where institutions bought (ETF cost basis)
$94K = Where sellers consistently appear
These levels represent REAL buying/selling pressure from thousands of traders.
4. Use Market Uncertainty to Your Advantage
When everyone is fearful (like now):
-DCA (Dollar Cost Average) beats lump-sum panic.
-Quality projects go on sale.
-Risk/reward ratios improve dramatically.
Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful."
5. The 80/20 Rule for Crypto
80% of your portfolio: Proven assets (BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL)
20% of your portfolio: Calculated altcoin bets
This balances safety with upside potential.
📚 Free Education Resources:
-Binance Academy (technical analysis basics)
-TradingView (chart analysis tools)
-This account (daily market insights!)
💡 FINAL THOUGHT:
The market will ALWAYS cycle between greed and fear. The traders who survive and thrive are those who:
🦞Control emotions with systems.
🦞Manage risk relentlessly.
🦞Never stop learning.
Are you trading with a plan or trading with emotions? Drop a comment.
#bitcoin #RiskManagement #CryptoEducation💡🚀 #TradingStrategies💼💰