起飞小喜

Institutional funds are withdrawing, where is the new narrative?
On the first day of February 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell helplessly below $76,000, directly breaking through the lowest point since April 2025. The total market capitalization of the entire crypto world evaporated by approximately $111 billion in just 24 hours—this figure is equivalent to a large tech company suddenly disappearing from the earth.
The entire contract market is in despair, with a liquidation amount of $2.566 billion, meaning over 400,000 investors have been forcibly 'liquidated' in their sleep or while awake. Even more unsettling is that traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have not been spared, with spot prices plummeting over 10% and 26% in a single day, respectively.

The price of Bitcoin unexpectedly broke through the 76,000 dollar mark, hitting a new low since April 2025.
In just 24 hours, the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by over 110 billion dollars. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount across the network reached an astonishing 2.566 billion dollars, with over 420,000 investors being ruthlessly 'targeted for liquidation'.
While the cryptocurrency world was bleeding, gold and silver, seen as traditional 'safe havens', also experienced an epic flash crash. The spot price of gold encountered the largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years on January 31, plummeting by over 10%, and the silver market was similarly in ruins.

Let's call it 'Black Sunday' — Bitcoin plummeted sharply within just a few hours, breaking through several key support levels, and the total liquidation amount across the network reached the highest record since the epic crash in October 2025.
First Pressure: Trump's 'Ace in the Hole' and the Return of a Strong Dollar
When Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, the air on Wall Street became tense. Who is Warsh? A staunch hawk, an advocate for tightening the monetary reins.

In the last week of January 2026, the market experienced a thrilling roller coaster ride. Looking back at these few days known as 'policy week', what exactly happened?
The macro spectacle comes to an end: risk aversion dominates, gold is 'really fragrant'.
This week's macro focus is undoubtedly on two major events: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the U.S. government's 'shutdown' crisis.
First, the Federal Reserve announced at its meeting on Wednesday (January 28) that the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
Next up is the fiscal drama on Capitol Hill. To avoid a government shutdown due to depleted funds on January 30, lawmakers from both parties have been arguing fiercely. Although the House of Representatives ultimately passed a temporary funding bill and sent it to the Senate.

Today, a "closed-door war" that will determine the fate of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry for the next few years is about to begin. On the table is that love-hate relationship of the (Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, DCIA). It is no longer just a piece of paper, but a "complete form" with as many as 11 amendments, each one like a scalpel, ready to precisely cut into the gray areas of existing regulations.
1. From the "Wild West" to the "Chu River and Han Border": What does the DCIA intend to do?
In recent years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have been fighting fiercely over jurisdiction over crypto assets, like two sheriffs both claiming ownership of a piece of land. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler wields the big stick of the "Securities Law," believing that almost all tokens are securities; while the CFTC insists that decentralized assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are more like "commodities" such as soybeans and crude oil.

The price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $89,000, seemingly both bulls and bears have entered a halftime break.
The market's fear and greed index has already fallen to the 'extreme fear' range of 24, which indicates that although people may not say it, their bodies are very honest: a storm that will determine the direction for the next few months or even years is approaching.
These two matters are like a huge pair of scissors, cutting towards the throat of the market from the dimensions of policy and liquidity. Tomorrow, will it be the 'Judgment Day' of the crypto world, or the 'Liberation Day' that breaks the shackles?

Only three days left until January 30, 2026.
According to the latest temporary funding bill, the U.S. federal government's funds will run out on January 30. If both parties in Congress cannot reach an agreement on a new budget before then, a large-scale government shutdown will be inevitable.
The mirror of history: How has cryptocurrency performed during the standoff?
To predict the future, one must first look back at history. Government shutdowns in the U.S. are not new; in the decade since the birth of cryptocurrency, we have experienced two significant 'samples'.
Case 1: October 2013, the 'fuel' in the bull market.

Throughout 2025, the increase in gold prices can only be described as 'insane,' achieving a rise of 60% to 70%, setting a new high since 1976. Its 'little brother' silver staged a 'comeback' performance, with an annual increase that once reached 150%, marking the best performance since 1980.
Behind this grand feast of precious metals is the heightened risk aversion in global markets. The fog of geopolitical tensions, the frenzied buying behavior of central banks, and the ambiguous doubts about the credibility of the US dollar system have all contributed to elevating gold and silver to a divine status.

Many people, upon hearing about digital RMB, may immediately have two questions in their minds: How is it different from WeChat and Alipay? Is it the same as Bitcoin?

In fact, a simple analogy can clarify: digital RMB is 'money,' while WeChat and Alipay are 'wallets.' Your wallet can hold cash as well as bank cards. Similarly, in the 'electronic wallet' of WeChat and Alipay, you can use the deposits in your bank card or directly use digital RMB for payments. The key difference is that digital RMB itself is the legal currency issued by the People's Bank of China, equivalent to banknotes and coins, and has legal tender status, meaning no institution or individual can refuse to accept it. In contrast, WeChat and Alipay are payment tools, and the money in them is essentially your deposits held in commercial banks.

Have you ever thought that a government bond you bought, or even a part of a property, could be traded on the blockchain like cryptocurrency at any time? It sounds a bit sci-fi, but it's becoming a reality. This is RWA, the tokenization of real-world assets—moving valuable things from the traditional world onto the blockchain to become digital tokens.

In simple terms, RWA refers to the process of creating a corresponding, tradable 'digital twin' of tangible assets such as bonds, real estate, and commodities through technological means on the blockchain. This twin must represent real assets (with verifiable records) and clearly define legal ownership. This is not a fantasy; financial giants like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs, as well as native crypto protocols like MakerDAO, are actively trying this out.

DAO, Decentralized Autonomous Organization, sounds like a trendy term. In simple terms, it is a group of people trying to organize in a new way using blockchain technology. There are no traditional bosses or hierarchies; the rules are written in public code, and everyone votes to make decisions. Many believe this could be the model for future organizations, almost like a 'utopia' in the digital world. But can it really live up to that?

What is a DAO? Rules written in code
DAO stands for 'Decentralized Autonomous Organization'. You can think of it as an internet-based 'digital cooperative'. Its core rules, such as how to vote, how to distribute funds, and how to join, are written into smart contracts on the blockchain. Once these contracts are set, they execute automatically and are hard to unilaterally alter; this is what is meant by 'code is law'.

Is it really safer to keep money in the bank? In 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers caused countless people's wealth to evaporate. Shortly after, the Bitcoin white paper was published, proposing a revolutionary idea: we may not need to give control of our assets to any intermediaries. This idea is 'self-custody' — being your own bank. Your crypto assets are not held by any exchange or institution, but completely under your control. Data confirms this trend: in 2023, the number of self-custody wallet users surged over 300%, while exchange users have been declining.

Why self-custody? The trust crisis of centralized custody

Many people find the private keys and mnemonics of Web3 wallets mysterious and fragile, as if they could be cracked at any moment. In reality, quite the opposite is true; the security foundation of this system is astonishingly solid. The real risk often lies not in the system itself, but in how we manage it.
Cornerstone: Elliptic Curves and Private Keys
The core of wallet security is built upon a mathematical maze known as 'Elliptic Curve Cryptography.' Your private key is the unique key that unlocks the maze.
This private key is essentially an extremely large random number, ranging from 1 to 2 raised to the power of 256. How big is this number? It's far greater than the total number of atoms in our observable universe. This means that even if we harness all the computational resources on Earth to guess from the beginning of the universe until now, it would be nearly impossible to accidentally guess your private key. Therefore, trying to crack it through 'brute force' is not feasible in reality. This mathematical fortress serves as the foundational defense for protecting your assets.

In the cryptocurrency market, do you often feel that when you buy, the price drops, and when you sell, it rises? Simply looking at price charts can be confusing; instead, we can look at deeper aspects—Bitcoin’s on-chain data. This data is publicly recorded on the blockchain and can help us gain insights into the movements of 'smart money'. Today, we will mainly discuss four practical on-chain indicators.
Four key indicators
1. Long-term holder supply (LTH Supply): Observing the actions of 'veterans'
Refers to addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. These individuals are usually seasoned and less likely to trade due to short-term fluctuations. Their changes in holdings are significant signals: if the price of the coin skyrockets and they begin to reduce their holdings, it may indicate that they believe the price is high and are taking profits in batches. Conversely, during market downturns, they quietly increase their holdings, often indicating that they believe it is a good time to accumulate.

Quantum computing is often depicted as a science fiction weapon that can instantly crack all passwords, especially concerning cryptocurrency holders who worry it could render Bitcoin worthless. Today, let's discuss how sharp this 'sword of Damocles' really is and when it might actually fall.
What is the strength of quantum computing? The key is 'parallel computing'
Traditional computers process information using 'bits', which can be either 0 or 1. Quantum computers use 'qubits', which leverage the principle of 'superposition' in quantum mechanics, allowing them to exist in a state where they are both 0 and 1 simultaneously.
What's so powerful about this? Imagine needing to find a way out of a huge maze. Traditional computers have to try each path one by one, which is very slow. In contrast, a quantum computer with multiple qubits can explore all possible paths simultaneously, thanks to superposition and 'entanglement' effects, finding the answer almost instantly.

Not long into the new year, a prediction from the well-known research institution Delphi Digital hit like a deep-water bomb, stirring up a thousand waves: '2026 will be the year of Solana.'
Hardcore data: 10 billion transactions and RWA ambitions
Entering 2025, Solana's network activity can only be described as 'terrifying.' Multiple data sources show that its decentralized exchange (DEX) sees daily trading volumes often exceeding 10 billion USD. During certain peak periods, daily trading volumes even approach 30 billion USD.
If the 10 billion level of trading volume is Solana showing off its muscle, then its layout in the RWA (real-world assets) field is where its true ambition lies. RWA, simply put, is about bringing real-world assets like houses, bonds, and private credit onto the blockchain. This is seen as the key to the crypto world moving mainstream and embracing a trillion-dollar market.