沉默的劉多余

Let me tell you the stories of two dynasties, which may benefit many people for a lifetime.

During the Chu-Han Contention, Xiang Yu conquered the world through military force but indulged in power after his victory, burning cities, killing captives, and losing the hearts of the people; Liu Bang was not noble, but he always constrained the power of himself and his subordinates, setting three rules before entering the Pass, exchanging system for order. In the end, Xiang Yu did not lose to Liu Bang, but was abandoned by the world.

During the transition from the Ming to the Qing dynasty, Li Zicheng's rebellion entered the capital, and after his victory, he indulged in military discipline, looting and burning, quickly exhausting public opinion. When the Qing army entered the Pass, Dorgon also wanted to plunder (here's the key point: the Manchu people are a hunting and fishing nation, plundering is in their nature) but chose to restrain himself under the advice of his strategists, preserving the old systems and stabilizing order, ultimately completing the takeover of the regime.

What determines success or failure is never who is more ruthless, but who can better restrain themselves. Any force that indulges in self-circulation, small circles, and endless resource acquisition will only end up repeating Xiang Yu and Li Zicheng. Those who can go far are always those who hit the brakes at the moment of victory.

In fact, in the later period of the Kuomintang and Communist Party, the reason why so many people in the Huangfan area were anti-Chiang was also due to Chiang Kai-shek's failure to restrain his troops, and even in the minds of the common people in the Huangfan area, the impact of Chiang's army on the local area far exceeded that of "natural disasters and Japan." Later, during the Battle of Xuzhou, which determined the trend of the Kuomintang and Communist Party, the local people rose up against Chiang Kai-shek.

Of course, on the other hand, the Shanxi warlord Yan Xishan was very meticulous in managing power constraints and wealth distribution, and the Kuomintang and Communist Party experienced the most intense and prolonged battles in Shanxi.

History is monotonous, and many things have a certain rule. Zhao Kuangyin of the Song Dynasty also ended a chaotic era by using rules～

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The drama of tearing each other apart that has happened in recent days was actually predestined.

I have long warned that being too obsessed with the convenience brought by power is misguided, as true power is never gained through the accumulation of wealth, but rather through the restraint of one's own behavior.

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Two major leading CEXs are fully operational. In the short term, this is not a pleasant situation for the entire market, but in the long term, many behaviors will be corrected.

I am quite curious about one thing: from October 2024 to the Spring Festival in 2025, during my conversation with her, I clearly mentioned that the current management model of Binance will lead the platform into one public opinion vortex after another. In the final conversation, we discussed stopping some behaviors.

But people generally do not accept opinions; everyone is like this. Everything that has happened recently is what should have happened, and sooner or later, this day will come. If this model continues, we will see another giant fall.

Also, I am not interested in flattery and will not accept any fees for acting as a mouthpiece. Many things that people like bring me no personal joy. In fact, I am speaking much more calmly now than I did a year ago when I communicated directly.

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Sometimes it’s also quite funny. The day before writing this post, at a dinner party, I saw the person at the same table flaunting their large position in silver. I took a glance and replied, 'Pretty much making a profit, just eat and drink as you like. No matter if the precious metals rise or fall next, he can't hold his position.'

This chaos in the gold and silver stock market is not the end. It is just a signal before an outdated system shrinks. When the financial logic of an era needs repeated explanations, it has already begun to fail. What is truly important next is not to predict the rise and fall but to see clearly which assets are built on the old world and which have begun to be priced for the new world.

Those who can see this are probably those who have been following me for a long time. Compared to others, you are also guarding your own 'faith.' The light of cryptocurrency has already been lit tonight. The second stage of global liquidity chaos impact belongs to crypto assets. Perhaps, as mentioned in Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper, Bitcoin will become the third choice after the global liquidity chaos.

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Silver plummeted by 35%+, the chaotic resonance has just begun, and the good days are still ahead!

A couple of days ago, I mentioned that after waiting for so long, we finally got a decent chaotic resonance.

The A-shares are the same; the risks in tech stocks are too high. Do not compare them with the U.S. stock market; the markets are different, liquidity is different, and corporate culture and capital structure are also different.

If you've made money in tech stocks, pay more attention to daily necessities; this might be the only way for you to outperform the market in the coming times.

This is not investment advice, just casual talk. Those who understand will naturally get it. Those who don’t understand will never get it, no matter how much you discuss.

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No matter who takes the position, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve cannot change the fact that the United States is already preparing for the next generation of financial infrastructure.

During the Democratic administration, there was a push for cryptocurrency regulation and ETFs, while the Republican period pushed for a more lenient overall cryptocurrency policy.

Currently, the only regret left for the crypto community is that most retail investors have been completely wiped out over the past three years, with nothing left, especially among Chinese-speaking retail investors.

Looking back a few years from now, the chaotic events of the past few years can be seen as the Chinese-speaking community in the crypto space actively committing self-harm.

The last time it was about policy withdrawal, this time it is about active self-harm, marking the quiet end of an era.

It's those people who shout daily about various investments, bull markets, bear markets, and thousands of times MeMe, quietly taking you away without leaving a single hair behind.

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To be precise, the previous generation's financial infrastructure is not suitable for the next era.

Including the current capital models are not suitable for the next era, a new era is emerging with the rise of small teams everywhere, just like in every field; the hype in the cryptocurrency space, prediction markets, Ethereum, and more small teams are rising. When used, it doesn't seem to have much impact, but through continuous optimization, they seem to be writing the rules of the next era.

An era belonging to genius super brawls, the last occurrence was a hundred years ago.

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A senior brother asked me to talk about Binance again, so I will briefly discuss it.

The real hostage of Binance has never been external public opinion, but rather Binance's own management. An outdated governance system, a structure of traffic and discourse power built on personal relationships, factionalism, and infighting.

The problem with this system is that it is only suitable for the rough-and-tumble era and not for a company that has grown to the level of infrastructure.

A very simple example. Around 2010, Liu Qiangdong initiated the home appliance war between JD, Suning, and Gome.

At that time, JD was, to put it bluntly, not even worthy of carrying Gome's or Suning's shoes. But through extreme opposition, infighting marketing, and the boss personally getting involved, JD became famous overnight and completed a cold start. But what about today? When JD reignites the food delivery aggregation war, the result is that the noise goes to Taobao, the mindset to Meituan, and JD ends up as a runner-up. The reason is simple: the “infighting logic” that worked repeatedly in the rough-and-tumble era will directly backfire during the platform maturity phase.

Binance is on the same path. Back in the day, expanding rapidly with a sense of camaraderie, personal charm, and factional culture was fine, but when you are already a global-level crypto financial infrastructure, operating with that same method of personal rule + emotion-driven + internal division is not growth; it is self-harm.

The market never punishes growth; it only punishes successful entities unwilling to evolve. And Binance is a successful entity that has not evolved. In the past, I said Binance's midlife crisis had arrived, and looking at it now, it’s still like that. I'm not kicking them while they are down; after all, I said this two years ago, and I had discussions privately with the first sister about it. But at that time, perhaps I was too blunt, or perhaps I couldn’t accept it in my heart.

But now I can only tell Binance one thing: if you do not clean up the management and the old circle, the time left for Binance is running out～

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V God: In this mindset that many people default to, we must rush to become powerful overlords, or we will be swallowed by the existing overlords. And this is precisely the alternative we need. Success requires far more than just technology, but the technological aspect is something we can control. These tools are designed to ensure your autonomy and safety, which is a fundamental right that everyone should enjoy. Here, 'open' does not mean the hypocritical 'open means everyone has the right to buy products from us and use our API for $200 a month,' but instead refers to true openness, safety, and verifiability, allowing you to be confident that your technology can serve you.

Therefore, the business mindset of CEX itself is not applicable to crypto assets. Providing better foundational services and creating a solid trading matching infrastructure is the future path for CEX. Making trading data transparent may be the only opportunity for CEX to ensure its survival.

Old Dengmen, accept your fate! CEX is the least technically demanding thing in the entire blockchain industry; it only requires courage. But that era is over; even Musk is actively breaking the inherent information cocoon of Twitter. In the future, the cost of maintaining stability after making mistakes will rise sharply.

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Why has the Binance public opinion incident fermented so quickly on Twitter?

The fundamental reason lies not in a single statement from Cathie Wood, but in Elon Musk's proactive breaking of the long-standing information echo chamber within Twitter.

Regarding the October 11 related incidents, it has not been that no one mentioned them in the past. Many leading figures in the crypto industry, including Tom Lee, have expressed their views at different times and occasions, but they have remained within their respective circles, making it difficult to form a true spillover.

What makes this time different is that Musk consciously pried open Twitter's originally rigid traffic pool structure, allowing information to no longer be intercepted by the 'circle algorithm,' but rather pushed to a broader, more heterogeneous audience.

This is not a case of 'a single statement igniting public opinion,' but rather the result of the algorithm's distribution logic being briefly reset, allowing genuine discussions to naturally spread. For all Twitter users, this change is 'relatively fair,' but for the platform, public relations teams, and entities reliant on maintaining stability through public opinion, the pressure will increase exponentially, and these incidents will become normalized in the future.

Perhaps this is precisely the ideal form Musk envisioned when he acquired Twitter, not to create consensus, but to get as close to the truth as possible.

For many years, I often said that Twitter was very boring, even digging into every information echo chamber to form an 'internet cult.' In the past, prying into Twitter's traffic was very low, and maintaining core information rooms was also very cheap, but that has changed. Musk has also realized the dangers posed by information echo chambers.

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Binance's current turmoil was anticipated, and those who have followed me for a long time should know that I have previously written many clarifications saying that I am critical of Binance.

I merely conducted a rational analysis two years ago, including Binance DEX and the trend of decreasing market share. I am not interested in whether it is the crypto emperor, the largest CEX, or the richest in crypto.

If the current management structure does not adjust, Binance is bound to face extinction, and it is not just a matter of whether it has been four months.

Derivatives have hype, and the spot market connected to institutional funds has CB, leaving little room for other exchanges at the moment.

The brother who privately messaged me saying I was critical of "Binance", is what happened today similar to what I told him? Many things have their own rules. One can generally see the direction of things; as for the built-in DEX, I also suggested making a small market back then, but its service direction deviated from the initial expectations.

Many things in this world can be predicted; publicly reasoning out the direction of a matter is not being critical, and the domestic economy is the same; the upcoming chaos can be completely reasoned out～

I will not discuss these boring topics anymore, rules are fair to everything. It is not that having enormous financial resources and power can free one from troubles.

It is not that I was so smart to predict that Binance's market share would decline exponentially before the Bitcoin bull market, but rather it is a predetermined rule.

Just like Bitcoin's market share, it will also continue to decline from its peak; the entire industry is developing upwards, and there will not be a situation of one company dominating.

If she flips through the chat records, besides suggesting a built-in market and developing a prediction market, I also suggested changing the management model, including Binance Labs at that time. From the perspective of an onlooker, many issues had already occurred～

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Every individual is the axis of the universe from birth, and one should never let wealth and power erode their inner self.

Whether a road is appropriate or sustainable does not depend on who the builder is or who it serves. Can it sustainably bear real life in the long term, rather than a sprint for short-term interests?

No one is obligated to persuade others, and neither am I. Seeing the news from the past couple of days, I initially did not want to say much, as my initial ideas were simply different from my expectations. If you can see it, you can flip through the last dialogue box; today's public opinion event has long been predetermined.

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Sometimes the world is really strange. In October 2024, Binance was in a very low phase, with various negative news flooding in.
During that AMA, He Yi was crying.

It was also at that point in time that a friend's account was banned, and I helped him find her. I also took this opportunity to propose some ideas.

I made it very clear at the time that a Web3 wallet should not just be a wallet; it should be a bridge connecting CEX and the on-chain world. We could start with a small market that not only absorbs CEX traffic but also facilitates true participation in the on-chain ecosystem, rather than just staying within the exchange.

At that time, the three of us, along with the wallet manager, were in a small group.
I had also suggested the direction of prediction markets to them. But later, I slowly felt that we were going off track. Not only was the product off track, but it also deviated from my initial expectations, and I never thought about contacting them again.~

The last chat I had was probably around the Lunar New Year in 2025. I sent her a long message, which was almost a blunt criticism.
She did not reply.

Looking back now, the first half of what I said has been realized, and the second half, which I was worried about at the time, has also happened.

Only no one needed these judgments at that time. Perhaps one day, I will publicly share what I said back then in full.

Be yourself; everyone should be the axis of the universe in their own hearts.

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Yesterday, an older brother tempted me to talk about the domestic economy. What I've said in the past about adjusting the economic structure, improving social welfare, refining the tax system, combating involution, and promoting the development of the financial market has almost all happened last year. In fact, this is not a prediction, but an inevitable result of the economic transition period.

To put it bluntly, stay away from financial positions within the system. The economic adjustment cycle is evident; many issues do not require prediction, they will surely arise, and no policy can reverse the damage done in one year.
Stabilizing the housing market, stabilizing enterprises, stabilizing employment, increasing residents' income, improving social welfare, addressing employment and education, these policies, when put together, inherently have structural contradictions.

1. Stabilizing the housing market will suppress the development of new industries.

2. Stabilizing enterprises often stabilizes old sectors.

3. Stabilizing employment can easily lower efficiency.

4. Improving welfare and residents' income requires fiscal support.

5. Employment education relies on economic growth.

This is not a problem of policy capability, but a problem of physical constraints. The result is that, in the short term, it seems like effort is being made, but in the long term, friction, low efficiency, and fluctuating expectations will still appear. The pain of the transition period is not caused by making mistakes, but is the cost that must be paid for the exit of the old growth model; no economic policy can eliminate decades of accumulated structural problems in a year.

The reason I want you to stay away is that in places with many problems, people will naturally bear the burden of those problems; from the perspective of the system, this is the biggest hurdle in nearly forty years. Who will bear these problems? Don't be stubborn; the biggest issue requires the biggest 'prison'.

Have you read about Zhu Yuanzhang's 'Hongwu Case' in history? How many heroes and talents fell during the economic transition period? The Hongwu Case was triggered by issues of economic distribution; history has its parallels.

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Yesterday, an old friend reached out to discuss whether Bitcoin has 'disconnected' from mainstream assets like US stocks and gold. From another perspective, what most people see as a correlation is essentially a psychological illusion created by short-term price relationships, rather than a true reflection of asset characteristics.

Since I entered this space, I have emphasized that crypto assets are crypto assets; they are not accessories to any old financial system.

Even today, Bitcoin has not been fully accepted by the mainstream, not because it is not mature enough, but because politicians are unwilling to relinquish power, mainstream capital is unwilling to deny the old financial infrastructure on which they rely, and many ordinary people are still unaware that their wealth is being silently diluted.

Crypto assets are inherently non-mainstream assets that are gradually dismantling the underlying structure of the previous generation of financial systems. Prices may move in the same direction in the short term, but their fates are not on the same track.

What it truly challenges are the rights to issue currency, the authority to make settlement decisions, the ability to freeze assets and levy taxes, and this path inevitably touches the vested interests of the previous generation of financial infrastructure.

For the past two years, I have been emphasizing 'broadening our vision.' From the systematic rise of commodities to the periodic prosperity of the stock market, the global trade and financial system built around the United States is being dismantled. Today's globalized system was established by the US, and today, it is also the US that is dismantling it.

What you are buying is not Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, but your own property rights. Just like the story of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms I mentioned a few days ago, Huang Chao's line 'When autumn arrives on September 8, I will bloom and the hundred flowers will die,' the meaning of this poem is not about slaughter, but rather that the old order can no longer provide him a path for promotion, and he must fight for it himself.

Currently, the old financial system has also lost its path for ordinary people to advance, and the valuations of major unicorns have reached sky-high levels～

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For assets, it only cares about the coverage of services, never mind whether it’s a black cat or a white cat. Just like US stocks, it only cares about its own asset rules, yet serves global capital.

Where the money comes from and where it goes is not important; as long as it follows the rules, it will be fully accepted. Cryptographic assets are the same. They are naturally global assets. As more capital gets involved, regardless of how the rules change, the ultimate beneficiary will certainly be the crypto itself.

More than a year ago, I mentioned that the simultaneous rise of US stocks and gold is an extremely dangerous signal. This means global assets have entered a huge area of systemic risk.

But the problem is that the persistence of this capital is too strong. Thus, whether it’s US stocks, precious metals, or commodities, they have all been unified under a narrative of "economic nihilism."

It is precisely at this moment that I confirm that crypto assets have officially entered a super cycle.

And now, most people still do not realize that their hard-earned money is being rapidly diluted, companies are unaware that supply chain costs are uncontrollably rising, and consumers have not truly felt that goods have entered a comprehensive cost increase cycle.

The result will be the same: a large number of manufacturing companies will die. Especially those domestically, over 50% of which are already in a state of loss.

This is the reality that is happening. Soon, a large number of companies will be forced into a vicious cycle due to rising raw material costs and the devaluation of residents' "cash" income, leading to a cycle where a large number of mid-to-low-end manufacturing industries will perish.

I believe mainstream media will soon discuss how cash is rapidly devaluing compared to global asset prices, so crypto will enter a super cycle. A wave of financial nihilism stronger than after the pandemic in 2019 is preparing to flood the global market, perhaps driving crypto assets into the largest cycle in history.

In March 2024, I compiled the following chart. All the assets on this chart will be remembered by everyone, just in a different order.

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I just said it's inexplicable that recently I've been getting U transfers from people, it turns out that Lao Xu sends me money every day 😆

Some friends are looking forward to a comprehensive altcoin season, which is not very realistic. Funds will only increasingly concentrate on leading protocols, and if we extend the time a bit, we are currently in the best stage for value investment in the crypto world.

I never talk about hundred times, altcoin seasons, or anything without fun, but quite a few protocols can indeed perform well in the upcoming market, depending on personal choices. Keep it up!

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After the broadcast of 'The Year of Great Peace', everyone started to rush to understand the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, as if searching for a footnote to the present in a time of chaos.

Many people say that the Russian people are a fighting nation, but the ones who truly took the power struggle to the extreme are on this land that has repeatedly collapsed and been rebuilt. No ethnic group or region has experienced such frequent and brutal internal elimination.

During the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, the fact that fourteen emperors and dozens of rulers came and went over several decades proves only one thing: as long as the power structure enters a period of adjustment on this land, a purge is almost an inevitable action, and this has repeatedly happened in history.

The most interesting thing is that later generations often reflect on why this is the case. However, when the power structure is adjusted, they will fall into a new cycle. After the Hundred Schools of Thought during the Spring and Autumn period, in the culture of this land, power is greater than contracts, systems, and even everything in the world, yet their words are full of benevolence, righteousness, morality, and institutional norms.

In reality, many issues can be resolved with a piece of paper and tens of thousands of words signed as a public contract, but this has never been completed.

If there is a creator, the creator might also find it hard to believe. An extremely hardworking, highly disciplined, and remarkably capable nation cannot complete the most basic public institutional negotiation at the lowest cost.

I used to think that only politics was like this and that one should stay away from politics, but later I realized that every aspect of life is like this; from birth, it is determined that only thoughtless lies can integrate into this land.

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Stay away from politics, cherish life.

In Eastern culture, politics is often not about public management, but a collection of power risks, taboos, and fate.

I used to often hear people boast about their connections, saying someone was their something or another, but later those people disappeared.

So I have never understood those who work day and night to take civil service exams, or those parents who push their children into officialdom.

In Eastern culture, political narratives are close to danger, and getting involved can lead to losing control.

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