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Although at that time I was also bearish on the single downward trend when it was at 90,000, I initially thought my mindset might not have fully switched. Today I've been thinking about a question: My previous mindset was still stuck in that large fluctuation range (for example, if it dropped to a certain position like 60,000 or so, it would still bounce back to 80,000 or 90,000). However, I thought maybe I shouldn't think that way anymore. Perhaps now it's similar to when it first broke through 70,000 in 2024, and a lot of people opened short positions when it was pulled up to around 90,000, then were taken out all the way down to 100,000. Now it has just become a downward version of the situation, just like that main upward wave at that time wouldn't have had a quick downward correction, now it doesn't necessarily mean there will be a decent rebound that quickly.

  I feel very strongly that this time we absolutely cannot compare it to last year's situation where it dropped from 110,000 to 75,000 and then pulled back to 126,000. Last year we hadn't even entered a bear market; it was just a correction in a bull market that reached a second peak at 120,000. This means that after October 2021 was when we truly began to enter the bear market stage.

  From this perspective, there is currently no need to catch the bottom during the mid-term decline of the bear market, and it would be more appropriate to start regular investment in spot trading during the tail end of the bear market a few months later (just like the circles drawn in the picture). Blindly trying to do rebounds now is very much like shorting when it broke through 70,000 and was pulled up to around 90,000, which could lead to continuous losses.

  This viewpoint on the big trend is primarily for sharing, and everyone can maintain their own opinions. There will definitely be changes in speculations that are too far ahead. Perhaps I will also have new ideas after a while. But when all the big players and retail investors in the market are unanimously willing to catch the bottom, has it really bottomed out?

  Of course, rebounds are not impossible to make, just like there can be short positions during corrections in the early and mid-bull markets. Rebounds can also be made in a bear market, but the expectations for rebounds should be lowered, and the rebound cycle may be shorter.

$ASTER aster0.4 has started, as a blogger who has been consistently and publicly bearish on aster since the day aster1.4 began, and has been looking for various rebound structures to call on everyone to short aster. Now watching the 0.6, 0.5, 0.4 that was mentioned at that time gradually come to fruition, when will the next steps of 0.3 and 0.1 arrive?

No ambiguity, no after-the-fact analysis; the views in the community and the square are unanimous. From the short selling on January 29th to the reminders in the past few days, it has clearly communicated the thoughts and logic to everyone. Friends who follow me, even if you haven't short sold, at least won't have jumped in too early. I hope this has helped everyone hold on to their pants.
As for bottom fishing, it should still be as mentioned in the previous post (Figure 1); the end of a one-sided trend cannot be judged by price, but rather by opportunities and emotional releases.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 #USIranStandoff

$BTC 1 On January 29, it was suggested to short and recommended the aster short indicator. On January 30, it was suggested that there may be a one-sided decline, so do not catch the falling knife, and short positions can be arranged. The community will follow up throughout, and the posts will be made public in advance 💰, and the logic will be provided for everyone to discern rather than blindly relying on feelings.
So when can we short-term catch the bottom for a rebound? You can refer to Figure 3; the end of a one-sided trend is not so simple. Those who thoughtlessly try to catch the bottom at the so-called support levels of 81000, 80000, and 78000 are not being very rational, as it is basically confirmed to be a one-sided decline!
During a one-sided decline or one-sided rise, the so-called support and resistance have little significance. My personal opinion is to wait for a new negative news (as long as it’s not a black swan event) to appear, then after a period of accelerated killing, look for opportunities to try to 'pick up the bodies.' This way, the accelerated shift from short to long will be more effective.
#BTC何时反弹？ #Crypto market correction

$BULLA Everyone can refer to this, generally recently like Bulla, this kind of small clone, if the market starts to set up it should be around 100-200 million in market value, and there’s no need to chase later than that. After recommending Bulla at 0.072, my expectation was actually to reach about 0.35, which is around a little over 100 million in market value (see image 1). Coai and Pippin are after all a minority; not every one needs to be fantasized about like this. Of course, it doesn’t mean that 100-200 million can definitely be shorted, but making multiple long trades to take profit can refer to this market value range. Of course, there’s no need to do the subsequent short that drops to zero either, as that would only yield a 100% profit. But if one encounters Coai Pippin, it could lead to irreparable losses.

$BULLA 1 On the 29th of the month, it was clearly stated in the post that bulla cannot be shorted, and opportunities for going long should be sought! Moreover, I have clearly expressed my bearish view on the market in other posts!
The logic of copycats has never been that if it rises a lot, it should be shorted, and if it falls a lot, it should be bought; the main thing is to clearly see the intentions of the main players to judge their intent. The indicators, K-lines, etc. of small copycat projects are very deceptive, and only the funds of the main players are the most honest.

Is the continued plunge unexpected? In fact, there are signs to follow. On Friday, not only in the community but also in the square, I posted to remind everyone that the bearish momentum has not ended (the logic is in the first picture). The short positions in mainstream and aster can continue to develop.
At the same time, on the 29th, I posted two articles about aster and bulla. On Thursday, I recommended everyone to short aster and go long on bulla. The subsequent results are evident; bulla skyrocketed from 0.072 to a peak of 0.22, while aster and the broader market continued to plunge. These are viewpoints published in advance rather than screenshots posted afterward. Follow me, and I hope to become a treasure blogger on your list 🫰#美国政府停摆 $ASTER $BULLA

$BULLA Last night, the bulla funds data was sent, and the logic was explained quite clearly. I hope that last night, even if you didn't dare to chase the long position, you weren't stubborn enough to short it, resisting the market's independent rise.
Shorting was also recommended for aster yesterday morning.

As we approach the monthly cut-off, today is Friday again, and many retail investors are getting emotional about bottom fishing. There is a possibility of a one-sided bet on a downward trend here. The short position mentioned earlier can still be held; at worst, it will break even. Don't trade altcoins on Friday; wait to assess the situation over the weekend. If the market is one-sided, the altcoin market makers may not support it.
#加密市场回调

$ASTER The large pancake has dropped a bit quickly, falling to around 85000. The short position in aster mentioned this morning can be partially closed, more than half perhaps. I originally planned to take profits tomorrow, but there has already been a 10% drop from this morning until now. It's fine to take profits on part of it, because for aster to drop unilaterally, the overall market needs to drive it. Personally, I feel that the conditions for a unilateral market are not yet sufficient, so there's no need for a special strategy for this aster short position at the moment.

$BULLA Don't short bulla, the net inflow of bulla contracts is 15 million, while the total position of bulla's contracts is also only 15 million. This indicates that the main force has increased the contract funds today, which are basically all long positions. Don't think you can short just because it has risen a lot! Shorting with a copycat mentality isn't the logic here! The main force has just put in so much money; don't foolishly become their opposing fuel.
Maybe there will be a pullback or even a big spike because of the rise, but this uncertain decline is not the logic for you to short. I have previously recommended coins to short after a massive increase, and it certainly wasn't just because they had risen a lot. This type of coin, where the main force is purely increasing long positions, should be considered for attempting to go long on the right side after a consolidation, pullback, or spike. A potential small pullback should be taken with a stop loss at 0.062 (after there is a certain small level spike on the 5-minute or 15-minute chart). If it hits the stop loss, there might be a larger spike (a spike at the four-hour candlestick level). Once a big spike occurs, wait for the next four-hour support level to find an entry point and set the stop loss (observe at that time). If the operator of this coin wants to manipulate, this is just considered the starting point here.

$ASTER The square has been lazy and hasn't been updated for a while. Just today, the community is talking about aster, which has also been discussed in the square. To put it simply, the logic is that the rebound is dominated by the short position in the bottom warehouse. After the daily line closed with a weak K, the cost-effectiveness of betting on the end of this small rebound is relatively high, and the stop-loss is also easy to find. Then, for the larger trend market, we need to wait for the opportunity after the monthly line is cut.

$ASTER Is Aster still holding fantasies? Take a look at how poorly Aster performed in this round of market rebound, and you'll understand that when I said 0.5, 0.3, or even 0.1 when Aster was at 1.4, it wasn't alarmist. The bottom of such a hot coin absolutely doesn't come quickly, and coins in this distribution phase can't follow the market rebound too much.
As for replicating BNB, no coin can replicate BNB.

$FET fet in the short-term rebound at higher levels, there is no actual fund inflow, and the overall long-term trend remains dominated by short positions, which is a clear sign of weakening.

$CLO Yesterday's recommended multi-label clo reversed a small segment against the overall market, although it hasn't reached my expectation yet. However, due to acceleration with volume and stagnation, funds have slightly flowed out after continuous volume increase, possibly leading to a pullback, so I've reduced a portion of my position. That said, this does not mean we can short here. I'll continue observing the next buying opportunity for clo. The trend for this instrument probably hasn't ended yet.

$CLO clo is the upward push of multiple increased holdings, with net inflow of 20 million contract funds in 48 hours, and current market cap is less than 100 million. If the major players want to manipulate this coin, a market cap of 200-300 million for such a new coin would not be difficult. It's worth watching for potential.

The overall market has risen significantly during the week, which might lead to a pullback affecting clo. It is recommended to enter in batches with one times leverage. I estimate that significant fluctuations in clo should occur near the weekend or after a market correction.

$PROMPT The prompt shows no inflow of contract funds. There are signs of accelerated volume, so you can try to test the top around 0.0675 with a stop loss. It's a small loss for a gamble. If there is a fifteen-minute accelerated volume drop in a short position, you can exit.

Happy New Year everyone! Thank you for the companionship over the past year. In the new year, we will continue to make money together in the crypto world 💰💰
Today, I would like to share some thoughts and bold speculations. If a similar market trend emerges, you can refer to this. For details, please see the chart.
In summary: 1. January's volatility will be significant. If there is a downturn, for example, BTC may likely experience a sharp drop from 100,000 to around 80,000, similar to the previous drop to about 71,000 (I previously made a bold prediction about the drop from 100,000 to 80,000, and it ultimately came true). 2. This time, the sharp drop in January will likely be followed by a quick recovery, and then a wide range of fluctuations, unlike December's narrow fluctuations due to the institutional window period. 3. In a few months, if Bitcoin stabilizes around 69,000, it might be a good spot to try buying in the spot market. We will see how it goes then. #加密市场观察

$ETH (Update: the stop loss might be too shallow, everyone should adjust based on their actual situation, it doesn't have to be that shallow. Recently, it's important to seize the opportunity in mainstream high positions as a one-sided market might arrive quickly.) Based on my judgment that mainstream coins will experience a monkey market before a downturn, I have reopened some of the positions I closed last night. The stop loss can be as shallow as 3010 with no problem. Recently, altcoins have become harder to trade, so I haven't opened any new altcoin short positions and am still holding onto the previous batch of altcoin shorts.)