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My trading career has been filled with hardships; looking back, it feels like I have walked every possible wrong path step by step. Therefore, I can deeply understand traders who are still crawling and exploring. I came to this platform to share, sharing without reservation, not to show off. Instead, it is partly to document my thoughts and insights and partly because I have been through the rain, so I want to hold up an umbrella for others!
In 2007, just after graduating, I was introduced to stocks through a recommendation from a college classmate, and I opened my first stock account at Northeast Securities. At that time, it was the tail end of a bull market, and I experienced the bustling atmosphere. I also fantasized about becoming one of those geniuses who could make money just by clicking a mouse, because I knew that everything has a key to unlock its secrets, and I considered myself smart enough to find the golden key to stock market investment. So, for the next six months, I studied technical analysis almost every night, staying up until three in the morning, sometimes all night long. I became obsessed with MACD, KDJ, RSI, and the like, and I was very familiar with terms like 'old duck head' and 'emerging lotus'. However, it was regrettable that even the resonance signals from three golden crosses could slap me in the face the next day; the golden cross could disappear, or it could appear and then immediately turn into a dead cross, or I would sell immediately if it didn’t rise after half a day! In this way, the down payment for a house disappeared over the course of six months! I clearly remember that the price of houses in Chongqing was 3800 per square meter. I was filled with regret!

Shorting at the top (shorting in the market/individual stocks/futures at high levels) has a poor cost-effectiveness ratio, mainly due to the asymmetry of risk and reward (risk-reward ratio is extremely poor), specifically reflected in the following aspects: 1. Market top characteristics: easy to rise, difficult to judge the top + very short time.
Statistically, the time spent in a low position (bottom) for markets/individual stocks/futures is much longer than that at a high position (top).
For example, A-share historical data: undervaluation range (cheap) often lasts for several years, while overvaluation range (expensive) usually only lasts for a few months or even weeks.
This means that it is difficult for you to accurately catch the 'true top', often 'touching the top' during an upward trend (false top), resulting in a continued rise.