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Key Points from the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Meeting on January 28, 2026 (Announced on January 29 at 3:00 AM Beijing Time)

1. Core Decision

- Maintain the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged: 3.50%—3.75%, ending three consecutive rate cuts in September-December 2025 (each by 25 basis points), and pausing the easing pace.
- Voting Situation: The majority supported maintaining the status quo, while Governor Stephen Miland (term ends January 31) voted against, advocating for faster rate cuts; Governor Waller (a potential candidate for Trump's chair) is under scrutiny, and his vote may affect nomination prospects.

2. Policy Statement and Key Points from Powell's Speech

1. Inflation and Economy: Core PCE year-on-year is approximately 3% (lower than the previous 3.0% forecast), housing inflation is slowing, but factors like tariffs may push inflation up; economic resilience remains, with a stable labor market, slight fluctuations in unemployment rate considered normal, tolerating a moderate rise in unemployment rate.
2. Rate Cut Pace: Emphasized that the current rate is close to the neutral range, future rate cuts will be gradual and very patient, not in a hurry to restart easing, with a very low probability of rate cuts in March and April, market expectations suggest the earliest possible in the second quarter of 2026 (June and beyond).
3. Policy Independence: In the face of external political pressure, the decision to “maintain the status quo” highlights the non-politicization of decision-making while downplaying the impact of administrative intervention on monetary policy.

3. Market Expectations and Impact

- CME FedWatch: Probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 97.2%, with only a 2.8% probability for rate cuts; expectations for rate cuts in March and April have significantly cooled.
- Asset Impact: The US dollar index may strengthen in the short term, US Treasury yields stabilize (10-year around 4.2%); commodities like gold and oil may face short-term pressure, high-valuation growth stocks may experience valuation corrections; the crypto market (especially Bitcoin) is affected by a stronger dollar and a decline in risk appetite, potentially weak and volatile in the short term.

4. Key Highlights

- Personnel Changes: Miland's term is ending, and the subsequent voting dynamics among governors may change; Waller's stance continues to influence market expectations for the Fed chair transition.
- Future Focus: February non-farm payroll and core PCE data will directly impact rate cut expectations for the March meeting, and Powell's subsequent speech wording (neutral rate, inflation tolerance) will be a key observation point.

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