DOGE/USDT Technical Analysis – Bearish Retest or Bull Trap?
$ Market Update: After a significant drop, DOGE has now shown a "Relief Bounce." The price is currently moving towards a critical zone where we might see a new rejection.
Technical Observations:
Market Structure: The 4H chart has confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS) downwards, indicating a bearish trend.
Resistance Zone: The price is currently retesting the area of $0.11000 - $0.11300. This is the same area where the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block (OB) are present.
The price has recently achieved a BOS (Break of Structure), indicating that the previous downtrend is over and buyers are now in control.
Entry Details
Optimal Entry Zone: Look for a "Buy on Dip" between $0.002650 and $0.002700. This aligns with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) where price often returns before moving higher.
Current Market Price (Aggressive Entry): You can enter a partial position at the current price of $0.002766, but keep the position small as it is near a local resistance.
Take Profit (TP 1): $0.002810 (Previous local high).
Take Profit (TP 2): $0.002900.
Stop-Loss (SL): $0.002550. If the price closes below this level, the bullish structure is invalidated.
Currently, the price is testing a major horizontal support (marked by your green line). However, the recent price action shows multiple BOS (Break of Structure) to the downside, meaning the trend is bearish. You should not "catch a falling knife" without confirmation.
1. The Entry Point
Optimal Entry: Wait for a 1-hour candle to close above the 0.1205 level.
Confirmation: Look for a "Bullish Engulfing" candle or a long lower wick (rejection) at this support. If the price breaks and holds below 0.1200, do not enter.
2. Take Profit (TP) Targets
TP 1: 0.1230 (This is the previous consolidation zone and near the "MSS" label on your chart).
TP 2: 0.1250 (Near the recent swing high/Order Block area).
3. Stop Loss (SL)
Stop Loss: Place it at 0.1188.
If the price closes below this level, the support has failed, and the price could drop significantly lower toward 0.1150.
Try to enter as close to $61.50 as possible to keep your risk low.
Stop Loss (SL): $60.20
A slightly wider SL is needed for a longer target to avoid getting "hunted" by small market dips.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $63.80 (Secure some profit here and move SL to entry price).
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $65.00 (Major psychological resistance).
Final Target (TP3): $66.00 (The "Big Win" zone).
Strategy for a $66 Target: Patience is Key: Since you are targeting $66, the price will face resistance at $63.50 and $65.00. Don't panic if it drops a little after hitting $64—that's just the market "breathing."
Trailing Stop Loss: Once the price hits $64, move your Stop Loss to $62.50. This way, even if the market turns back, you don't lose anything.
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