Nathan金言

Someone has recently been trading gold, and has been asking me continuously. It's possible, but don't have a large perspective. For pullbacks, protect or take profits at 30 minutes or 1 hour. The gold market hasn't peaked yet. Short positions should only be for the short term, not for the long term first. #黄金

1.23 Market Analysis
Overall, it is still in a downtrend correction. If it pulls back again:
BTC: 87500-87200, hard stop loss (daily level): if the daily closing price falls below 87263 again and continues (unable to recover the next day), stop the long strategy.
ETH: 2905-2865, hard stop loss: if the daily closing price continues to fall below 2860 and cannot recover, stop the long strategy.
Macro-wise, the market is under the backdrop of "Trump's tariffs/geopolitical rhetoric changes + fluctuations in US and Japanese bond yields," with risk appetite fluctuating; after Trump retracted some tough statements, the stock market rebounded, the dollar weakened, and gold strengthened, with BTC/ETH declining/weakening." #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

1.22 market
BTC is currently in a consolidation recovery phase. Light position at 89500-88500,
core level at 87400-86600. Stop loss structure: a break below 87200 on a 4-hour chart is considered a true break, hard stop loss at 85800.
Main resistance at 938-947, reduce position, while the range of 9-905, 92 is considered a mid-journey rhythm gate, which is a pressure level on the hourly chart.

ETH light position trial at 3000-2950,
core level at 2900-2865. Structural stop loss at a break below 2860 on a 4-hour chart, hard stop loss at 2790. Look for a rebound first at 3090~3130 (reduce first)
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

In the next few days, I will likely be bottoming around the area of 87895-87550, with rebound resistance at 90588, and then make another attempt at a lower bottom to clear out the long stop losses. ETH 3000-3030 has also become a new resistance, BTC is okay, but ETH has completely broken down. It's better to go long on the right side of the position, or continue to short on the rebound. #eth

The long positions given yesterday morning from 3160-3170 have a temporary low of 3165, perfect
ETH has support at 3140 and 3100, today's operations are roughly as follows, strictly with stop-losses

BTC: 92050-91550; structural stop-loss: 91080 (if it breaks and does not recover within 1 hour), hard stop-loss: 90780 (to prevent extreme spikes)
First target: 93650-93950 Second target: 94750-95600

ETH: 3170-3125; structural stop-loss: 3075; hard stop-loss: 3035; target 1: 3245-3285; target 2: 3309-3355

The points yesterday were quite impressive, with a low of 3165. Those who haven't placed their bets can continue to do so here, paying attention to the futures gap. #ETH

Ethereum's non-entity breaking below 3180 is not a problem. If you want to go long, you can set a buy order between 3160-3170 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

1.16 Market Brief
Market Rhythm:
Pullback without breaking 94/95 → Re-test 979 (near this week's temporary high) → Test the 100 barrier;
Only if below 94 is broken will the trend switch to a rapid downward move back to 92/90 (more prone to stop-loss triggers).
ETH: Structure shows clear supply around 3400; support at 3100+3050 (structural bottom). If strong, test 3400 or fake breakout; if weak, re-test 31xx for secondary confirmation.
BTC pullback to 946–952, structural stop-loss: below 938 (confirmed by 1h close); system hard stop-loss: 93300 (to prevent night-time pin); First target: 97200–97900; Second target: 998–100500 (start taking profits in batches here, avoid over-trading).
ETH pullback to 3220–3270 (enter light position first), add-on zone: 3120–3170 (consider only near 3100 pivot); structural stop-loss: below 3090 (1h close); hard stop-loss: 3040; Target 1: 3380–3400; Target 2: 3480–3550 (requires BTC to strengthen in sync).
Core points from last night to today:
1) ETFs in the capital segment show real inflows, with daily inflows reaching multi-month highs, indicating major funds are treating BTC as the primary allocation.
2) Derivatives short squeeze has occurred (near 700 million level), increasing the likelihood of a short-term 'push—wash—re-select direction' pattern; avoid chasing, wait for pullback confirmation.
3) Two key triggers today: U.S. macro data (industrial output, etc.) + ARB unlock supply shock—both can directly trigger stop-losses and volatility. #btc

1.15 Market Early Report
BTC structure remains bullish. The close was near the high end, with the main force seemingly holding to wait for a second sweep of liquidity.
Buy in batches at 94780-93860, exit if 4-hour close breaks 93860, hard stop-loss at 932; first target 96950-97900, look at 99500～100000 if confirmed.

ETH, although I have short positions, still follow the trend: buy back at 3300-3280, exit if breaks 3280, hard stop-loss at 3235, target 3400-3450;
eth only consider going above 3450 if it holds above 3400 and retests without breaking, with the number #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 remaining unchanged.

1.14 Market Analysis
BTC market is currently showing short-term bullish momentum, but it's about to enter a period of high supply density. This wave is likely to follow three stages: 1. First, sweep above the 965 liquidity zone; 2. Re-test and confirm support around 94-93; 3. Then decide whether to push toward 98/100! (Major milestone, high resistance, strong barrier). Conditions for a bullish structure to remain intact: re-test does not break below 93-94.5, and no consecutive breaks within the day.
Conditions for structural weakening: break below 91, indicating structural breakdown.
Short-term re-test: partial entries between 94,150 and 94,800; structural stop-loss at 936, hard stop-loss at 92,980; target first 963, then 982! #btc

It's about to change direction, within the next one or two days

1.12 Market Morning Report
BTC intraday preferred position: 908-90050; structural stop-loss 889, resistance 92-932-947; first resistance 92 is not small
Selected order remains open: 879-864, structural stop-loss 858, system hard stop-loss 836;
My ETH long position from yesterday has already been secured. Currently waiting for the next opportunity
ETH current position: 3120-3102, structural stop-loss 3050, hard stop-loss 2960, resistance 3208-3300-3440
Backup order: 2990-2970, structural stop-loss 2890, hard stop-loss 2765 #BTC

BTC failed to surge to 95 and retreated to 90, with overall risk assets slowing down;
24h liquidation reached $252 million, with long liquidations dominating—typical 'deleveraging'; today’s price is more likely to drop to support levels before rebounding;
Deribit Weekly Report shows a bullish funding rate, indicating significant long leverage, so a failure at the upper end could trigger faster sell-offs, making chasing longs more prone to being wiped out.

Ongoing influencing factors: The narrative of early-year ETF inflows 'returning' is gaining traction, providing underlying support for BTC, but intraday trading should still follow the structural levels I provided.

Additionally, Reuters reports: Morgan Stanley has filed for BTC/SOL ETFs; SOL is a relatively strong candidate driven by events.

Key upcoming events this week: U.S. jobs data on 1/9, CPI on 1/13; false breakouts and stop-loss sweeps are likely around these events, so a two-layer stop-loss is mandatory at #加密市场观察

1.8 Market Report
BTC btc917 There's a small resistance here; sell off the positions bought around 915 yesterday, place orders at 906-90,000, exit on a retest below 894, hard stop-loss at 888; take profits in batches at 928-938-947.
ETH 3136 No need to sell the positions bought yesterday, hold for now. Alternative strategy for Ethereum: buy once at 3120-3138, add once at 3055-2975, move hard stop-loss to 2885, or exit on a retest below 2935. #行情前瞻

This Week's Key Focus (Event List Affecting Volatility/Direction)

1. Wednesday (U.S. session): Dense data releases including ADP, ISM Services, and JOLTS → likely to cause "a sharp move followed by a directional trend".

2. Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls: The biggest source of volatility this week.

3. ETF Flows: If inflows continue → support below will be stronger; if flows turn back to outflows → upside may see easier pullbacks.

4. BTC 94 Level Threshold: Holding above = more trend-like; failing to hold = more range-bound. #加密市场观察

1.7 Market Update: Pay attention to whether today/tomorrow can reclaim above 94, if not, continue range-bound trading; if it can break above and hold, then continue upward movement.
Only above 94 is there potential for trend extension; below 94, continue treating as a range. BTC Key Levels: 94380-94790; downward support at 91580-91280—only if this level breaks will deeper demand emerge toward 88650-87580. Otherwise, trade within the range for short-term positions!
Short-term support at 91580-91280 with light position; structural stop-loss: exit on a break below 905 with a pullback, or hard stop-loss at 89580; resistance at 93750-944-947;
ETH: Staying above 3300 = trend; below 3300 = range-bound; short-term support: 3195-3136; structural stop-loss: exit on a pullback above 3098 (if broken, trend weakens); resistance: 3295-3308-3440 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

2026.1.6 Market Early Report
BTC Short-term First Support Level: 93080-92020, if it breaks below 911 during the day, it will rebound, resistance at 945-948;
Short-term suitable positions are at 905, 891; if it breaks below 885 during the day, it will rebound.
Eth Short 1:3196-3153; if it breaks below 3135 during the day, it will rebound, resistance at 3265, 3300, 3440;
Short suitable positions: 3084-3034, if it breaks below 3000 during the day, it will rebound. #BTC走势分析

Looking ahead to the market in 2026: 2026 is more like a year of oscillating upward with multiple drastic fluctuations, rather than a straight line. Prices will rise, but will experience 2-4 significant pullbacks/spikes to wash out leveraged positions before rising again. Under normal circumstances, the first half of the year is more inclined towards breaking new highs and brushing against previous highs, with a mid-section deep pullback washing out 20%-35%, and then the second half will follow a trend or wide oscillation at a high level. Suitable for: low frequency, wide stop-loss, structural positions, and wave trading! In January-February, I tend to be bullish.
Not suitable for: chasing prices, frequent stop-losses, intraday speculation!

Core Idea:
2026 is not a year for placing orders every day; if you want to catch waves daily, it's exhausting and can easily lead to losses!

Trend trades: make 1-2 trades a year. The real money is not made daily, but from those few suitable positions throughout the year! For example: when the market pulls back to a point where no one dares to buy, or breaks through, stabilizes, and confirms a trend, such opportunities happen only once or twice a year! What we need to do is not to trade frequently, but to wait until we find positions where the risks are minimal even with our eyes closed before making a move!

Profits primarily come from: ambushing during pullbacks → wave trading, meaning buying after a drop and selling when the sentiment rises, placing orders at key positions in advance, and not rushing to sell after buying at these key positions, enjoying a substantial move before exiting!

As long as the overall direction remains intact, the fluctuations in between are actually not important! Trends are moving upwards with multiple 20-30% deep pullbacks, so chasing prices will lead to losses; wait for pullbacks to enter in batches.

1. The annual trend center is 85-95, which is the "bull market base" for 2026. As long as this position holds, look for opportunities to go long; if it breaks down quarterly, it will trigger a trend-ending alert!

2. The trend top is not just a preparation point, but a range of 150000-180000, with an extreme of 200. This does not mean to chase prices; it simply informs everyone that above 140, only reduce positions; above 150, it is prohibited to increase positions; above 160, start considering exiting to take profits, and no longer stay in the battle!

3. The trend bottom is 78000-82000. If in 2026 we see a crash, panic, and a bearish sentiment across the board, but the price is around 80, that is an annual opportunity, not a risk! #比特币2026年价格预测

3077 ETH long position, add to position at 3010. All orders are short-term trades and are not held for long. If not executed before sleeping during the day, withdraw the order and wait for opportunities. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥