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This is the real reason why Bitcoin $BTC is trapped in a certain range. If you want to know why, no matter how many people try to push the price up, $BTC has been hovering between $85,000 and $90,000, I can tell you the answer now. And this issue is likely to be resolved within a week, before the expiry of the options on January 30. The reality is this: Bitcoin is at a critical options reversal point, around $88,000. Above this level, market makers are forced to sell in an uptrend and buy in a downtrend. Any rebound will be limited, and the price will be pulled back to the middle position. Below this level, the situation is completely different. Selling pressure will self-reinforce, and volatility will continue to increase rather than be absorbed. This is why the price repeatedly returns to the same area. It's not the traders' fault. Now let's look at why the $90,000 level has been consistently blocked. The call options at $90,000 are very concentrated. Traders have shorted these call options. Whenever the price approaches this level, they hedge by selling spot Bitcoin. Therefore, the so-called "selling pressure" is actually forced supply, coinciding with the point where traders expect momentum to occur. This is why every attempt to break through $90,000 ends in failure. On the other hand, the situation at $85,000 is the opposite. There is a large amount of put option positions there. As the price falls, traders hedge by buying spot. This is why every drop is quickly bought up. This creates a seemingly completely normal narrow trading range, but in reality, it is extremely unstable. The reason this is important is because of timing. A large amount of options exposure will expire on January 30, 2026, which is the last Friday of that month. Once January 30 passes, this pressure will disappear. It's not because people suddenly change their minds, but because the forces that maintain price stability no longer exist. Almost every major market top has been predicted, including Bitcoin's all-time high in October. Please pay attention and turn on notifications.

Ethereum $ETH 's current situation is not optimistic. It has lost its upward trend support level and is now struggling to return to the $3000 mark. Currently, it is very likely that Ethereum will break below the support level of $2800-2850 before the next round of upward movement.

We need to understand that the real market cycle is not merely the traditional four-year cycle, the end of quantitative easing, the start of quantitative easing, and interest rate cuts. The fluctuations in the macro market stem from what we call the 'business cycle.' The reason for the 'four-year cycle' is that the last three global business cycles have each lasted four years. Bitcoin's price movement is consistently aligned with the global business cycle, not just halving events. When the business cycle peaks, the price of Bitcoin also peaks; when the business cycle bottoms, the price of Bitcoin bottoms as well. Even the structure of the Bitcoin cycle aligns with business cycle indicators. Over the past three years, business cycle indicators have clearly been in a contraction phase (sideways consolidation). This indicator has never broken through 55, which is why cryptocurrencies have never experienced parabolic rises. This time is different: - After the interest rate cuts due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the maturity date of U.S. debt has been extended by more than 1.5 years. - Logically, this may have also extended the business cycle by 1.5 years. As long as the economy remains in a slowing phase, cryptocurrencies cannot experience explosive increases. Historically, when the business cycle begins to expand again, Bitcoin will exhibit the most significant volatility. #加密市场观察

The warning signals for Bitcoin $BTC are increasing. The first dangerous signal: cracks are appearing in the support level. Then confirmed:
Bitcoin's price rebounded but failed to hold above $95,500. This failure triggered a price pullback to the support area. Now the price is further narrowing within the range... This means that the $90,000 threshold remains unresolved.

Bitcoin $BTC Weekly: Success or Failure Rides on This Move. Bitcoin is retesting the 50-week moving average. This level has provided support multiple times during this cycle. Bullish Perspective: Regaining and holding the 50-week moving average, with prices continuing to rise. Bearish Perspective: Being blocked at the 50-week moving average, with prices potentially falling further.

On the daily chart, many people believe that Bitcoin $BTC
experienced a "breakout" after the price broke through the 94500 USD mark, and I feel the same. However, I must remind everyone that these price levels are subjective interpretations by retail traders. They merely indicate the location of stop-loss points at the time of the breakout. As of now, Bitcoin may be in an upward trend range, but it has not yet been noticed by everyone. Given the market remains uncertain, I am currently not engaging in any Bitcoin/Ethereum trading. Personally, I tend to be bearish because we have raised liquidity to 98000 USD (where retail stop-loss points are located), but the bulls may not have truly followed through. It might take a few more days, but as of now, the trend for Bitcoin and Ethereum does not look optimistic.

Bitcoin $BTC roadmap: Double bottom breakout is bullish. We are now retesting the $91,000 to $92,000 range.
Bitcoin target price? Who cares about $110,000 now... let's break through $100,000 first. Then we can discuss target prices: $102,000 / $105,000 / $107,000 / $110,000. This looks like liquidity expansion rather than speculation. #Strategy增持比特币

$BTC
Breaking below 94.5k will confirm a price divergence from previous highs. If this level is breached, the next potential downside targets are 90k and 84k.

Ethereum $ETH breaks through the $3400 mark and continues to rise. Yesterday, Ethereum, like Bitcoin (BTC), saw a significant price increase to near $3400. Currently, the price is consolidating, and finding a new pattern is crucial. For today's trading, I am considering three possible scenarios. The first scenario is that the price gains liquidity below the low around $3270. If this happens, I will go long, taking advantage of the breakout in the M15/H1 market structure. When the price tests the weekly high near $3400, if the H4 price stabilizes, I will look for long opportunities; if the H4 price fails to stabilize, I will look for short opportunities. Shorting is limited to low-risk short-term trades, with the goal of gaining liquidity (counter-trend trading). If the H4 price breaks through the high near $3450, I will look for continued long opportunities. Go long when the price retraces near $3600. Let's see if there are trading opportunities today.

$BTC continues to rise, touching around $97,400. Bitcoin completely missed my long entry point I established this morning, which is a very bullish signal. If this daily candle closes above approximately $95,600, it will further confirm its strength. How to continue trading in this scenario? In fact, the price is already overextended, and it's too late to go long now. Do you really want to go long immediately? Don't do it—because that's FOMO (fear of missing out), which could lead to significant losses. Right now, the key is to wait for a slight pullback and a clearer pattern to emerge. If you still want to go long, I'd prefer to enter when the price potentially retraces, with a final target at around the $106,000 resistance level. 'If' this happens, it might not occur until next week. Another trading opportunity could be shorting, moving toward my long entry point. But remember, this carries higher risk, as it's a counter-trend move. I would only go short if the price shows very strong bearish market signals and if there's good target liquidity, allowing for potential long retracements. I love this situation—our long-awaited move has finally arrived.

Bitcoin price quickly rose after $BTC . Now we hope the price can hold above $95,000 to see if the rally continues. If it drops below $94,500, it's likely a false breakout. 😅

26 Reasons to Be Bullish on the Market in 2026: ● Trump Announces Purchase of $200 Billion Mortgage-Backed Bonds ● New Federal Reserve Chair ● Clear Act Passed ● More Rate Cuts ● $2,000 Tariff Dividend ● Significant Tax Cuts ● Changpeng Zhao's Super Cycle Theory ● Major Banks Buying Bitcoin ● Consumer Price Index Declines ● Midterm Election Benefits ● Russell 2000 Index Hits New All-Time High ● Federal Reserve Purchasing Treasury Securities ● Global Liquidity Reaches All-Time High ● Altcoin ETFs Approved ● Bitcoin/Gold Bear Market Continues for 12 Months ● Global Regulators Approve ● Gold and Silver Overheating ● Statutory Liquidity Ratio Eased ● Long-Term Holders Stop Distribution ● Over $8 Trillion in Debt Refinancing ● Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Expands ● Dollar Depreciation ● GDP Growth ● Market Sentiment at Historical Low ● Bitcoin Market Share Reaches Peak ● ISM Index Above 50$BNB

Currently, the Bitcoin price is stuck between two liquidity zones. The lower liquidity zone is around $88,000 to $88,500, which also coincides with a gap in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The upper liquidity zone lies between $92,000 and $95,000, a key resistance area. I believe both liquidity zones could be broken next week.

$BTC $When the price drops below $90,000, a large number of spot orders accumulate on the order book. Once these buy orders are absorbed by market sellers, the price will drop rapidly, with the last major support level at $87,000.

$ETH Liquidity fell after inflow. Ethereum reached a daily high of about $3,148, with liquidity breaking through a high of about $3,135. My bearish inclination remains unchanged, and the ultimate target is still the weak monthly opening price of about $2,970. Today's trading may present good shorting opportunities. I believe the best shorting time was this morning, but if liquidity breaks through the daily highs of about $3,124 and/or about $3,150, additional entry points may also appear. When liquidity breaks through one of these highs, I will watch whether the market structure is broken on the 15-minute or even 5-minute charts as a timing for entering short positions. My ultimate target is the weak monthly opening price, and I will set two take-profit points in between. Today is Friday, so I expect there won't be a break of the monthly opening price this week. If a break occurs, it is likely to happen on the next weekly candle. Let's see if any trigger signals appear today.

Many people ask me: 'I'm not unaware of the rules, I just can't do it.'
I'm very familiar with this statement. Because I've also experienced being rational before the market opens, a gambler during trading, and a philosopher after the market closes.
The system is clearly written, yet at critical moments, my hands still tremble. It's not that I don't understand—it's that when emotions take over, you completely change.
Lefevre once said something I've read many times over the years: 'What determines success or failure is never the judgment, but emotional control during execution.'
You think you lose due to technical skill, but actually you lose when you see floating profits and start fantasizing; when you see drawdowns and start justifying yourself; when you see opportunities and start getting anxious.
The cruel truth about the market is: it doesn't punish ignorance—it repeatedly punishes those who 'know but can't act.'
Here are three practical reminders:
First, rules only work before the market opens—don't 'reflect on life' during trading.
Second, the moment emotions rise, your position size must be lighter than what you originally intended.
Third, a system that can be consistently executed is always worth more than a perfect one.
In the end, trading isn't about who sees it correctly, but who can still place orders like the same person when emotions strike.
If you've ever experienced such a 'personality switch,' leave a comment telling me one emotion that makes you prone to mistakes.$BNB