阿曾
专注web3币圈撸毛。
推特：@caizeng
微信：cai2080
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#美国伊朗如何影响市场 in the context of concurrent geopolitical tensions, gold prices have surpassed $5,000/ounce, reaching a historic high, fully reflecting the function of traditional safe-haven assets.
Lack of safe-haven attributes in BTC: In stark contrast to gold, BTC behaves as a risk asset that is sold off during rising geopolitical risks, which can be explained by the following factors:
1. Institutional holding structure: Currently, a high proportion of BTC holders are technology stock investors, who tend to reduce their positions in sync during macroeconomic risk increases.
2. Liquidity demand: Compared to the central bank reserve attributes of gold, BTC is more focused on trading and speculative functions.
3. Regulatory uncertainty: Geopolitical conflicts are often accompanied by expectations of tighter regulation, suppressing the performance of risk assets.
Despite short-term price pressure, the fundamental valuation indicators for BTC remain robust.
The geopolitical tensions have temporarily reinforced BTC and ETH's market positioning as "high beta risk assets."
In contrast to gold's safe-haven performance, cryptocurrencies endure more selling pressure rather than safe-haven buying during the initial stages of conflict. This performance aligns with the current institutional holding structure and liquidity characteristics of the crypto market.
Investment advice: At the current price level, the risk-reward ratios for $BTC and $ETH are relatively reasonable. In the short term, attention should be paid to developments in geopolitical issues and signals from U.S. regulatory policies, while in the medium to long term, one can still focus on structural opportunities brought about by institutional accumulation and infrastructure development.
Lack of safe-haven attributes in BTC: In stark contrast to gold, BTC behaves as a risk asset that is sold off during rising geopolitical risks, which can be explained by the following factors:
1. Institutional holding structure: Currently, a high proportion of BTC holders are technology stock investors, who tend to reduce their positions in sync during macroeconomic risk increases.
2. Liquidity demand: Compared to the central bank reserve attributes of gold, BTC is more focused on trading and speculative functions.
3. Regulatory uncertainty: Geopolitical conflicts are often accompanied by expectations of tighter regulation, suppressing the performance of risk assets.
Despite short-term price pressure, the fundamental valuation indicators for BTC remain robust.
The geopolitical tensions have temporarily reinforced BTC and ETH's market positioning as "high beta risk assets."
In contrast to gold's safe-haven performance, cryptocurrencies endure more selling pressure rather than safe-haven buying during the initial stages of conflict. This performance aligns with the current institutional holding structure and liquidity characteristics of the crypto market.
Investment advice: At the current price level, the risk-reward ratios for $BTC and $ETH are relatively reasonable. In the short term, attention should be paid to developments in geopolitical issues and signals from U.S. regulatory policies, while in the medium to long term, one can still focus on structural opportunities brought about by institutional accumulation and infrastructure development.
The essence of memes is the attention economy.
Last night when I published the article, $PENGUIN had a market value of 90m, today the highest is 170m, quite absurd,
However, I did not buy because I think these will eventually crash,
Memes are the attention economy; when the attention fades, the big players will also profit and escape,
Look at $PNUT and $TRUMP , both have dropped over 90%,
If penguin rises to too absurd a level, it might even be possible to short it.
Today I saw on x @clawdbot, this tool is an all-weather open-source AI assistant, it should be the latest trendy AI application tool. After watching many tutorials and reviews, the conclusion is that general artificial intelligence (AGI) has arrived.
Interested readers can go download it and try it out; it's open-source, can be installed on servers, and can also be installed on a Mac.
Today I saw a master challenge free solo climbing the Taipei 101 building; it turns out to be the big shot Alex from 'Free Solo'. He has previously free soloed over 900 meters high Chief Rock. This guy is a god; you cannot view him with normal thinking. If considering the difficulty, for him to free solo climb the over 500-meter Taipei 101 building is not difficult.
For me, a building over 500 meters high, that kind of height would make my legs weak even if I were just standing. Let alone climbing. After all, I might not even be able to hold on for 10 seconds on a pull-up bar with both hands.
Last night when I published the article, $PENGUIN had a market value of 90m, today the highest is 170m, quite absurd,
However, I did not buy because I think these will eventually crash,
Memes are the attention economy; when the attention fades, the big players will also profit and escape,
Look at $PNUT and $TRUMP , both have dropped over 90%,
If penguin rises to too absurd a level, it might even be possible to short it.
Today I saw on x @clawdbot, this tool is an all-weather open-source AI assistant, it should be the latest trendy AI application tool. After watching many tutorials and reviews, the conclusion is that general artificial intelligence (AGI) has arrived.
Interested readers can go download it and try it out; it's open-source, can be installed on servers, and can also be installed on a Mac.
Today I saw a master challenge free solo climbing the Taipei 101 building; it turns out to be the big shot Alex from 'Free Solo'. He has previously free soloed over 900 meters high Chief Rock. This guy is a god; you cannot view him with normal thinking. If considering the difficulty, for him to free solo climb the over 500-meter Taipei 101 building is not difficult.
For me, a building over 500 meters high, that kind of height would make my legs weak even if I were just standing. Let alone climbing. After all, I might not even be able to hold on for 10 seconds on a pull-up bar with both hands.
This penguin is really fierce~ $PENGUIN Meme coins in the literature area are on the SOL chain,
Meme coins in the Chinese area are on the BSC chain,
Previously, $memes was listed on bn's alpha,
And this PENGUIN is now 138m, with a peak of 170m,
These memes are really exciting, sometimes increasing by dozens of times in a day,
It really is a huge casino,
Recently, it seems that the on-chain market is about to rise, and the casino has started to become active.
Meme coins in the Chinese area are on the BSC chain,
Previously, $memes was listed on bn's alpha,
And this PENGUIN is now 138m, with a peak of 170m,
These memes are really exciting, sometimes increasing by dozens of times in a day,
It really is a huge casino,
Recently, it seems that the on-chain market is about to rise, and the casino has started to become active.
#灰度提交BNB ETF申请
Grayscale officially submitted the S-1 application for the BNB spot ETF to the U.S. SEC on January 23, 2026, at 14:03 UTC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the code "GBNB". This marks the second institution to apply for a BNB ETF after VanEck, indicating mainstream financial institutions' recognition of the BNB ecosystem. The current BNB price is $892, which has gently increased by 0.47% within 24 hours after the announcement and is currently in a healthy consolidation phase. Technically, the key support level is at $870, with the derivatives market open interest maintaining a high of $2.7 billion and a slightly positive funding rate of 0.189%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment.
The S-1 document submitted by Grayscale aims to convert the existing BNB trust into a spot ETF, with Coinbase serving as the primary broker and custodian. This ETF plans to hold physical BNB, allowing investors to gain exposure to BNB through traditional brokers without directly holding cryptocurrency.
BNB is currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $121.5 billion, and is the core token of the Binance ecosystem.
The market's reaction to the ETF news has been relatively mild, with only a 0.47% increase within 24 hours, indicating that the market had some expectations or is suppressed by overall market sentiment.
Immediate support: $870 (Bollinger Bands lower limit)
Resistance level: $912 (20-day SMA), $954 (Bollinger Bands upper limit)
Current status: The price is fluctuating around $892, below the short-term moving average but above the 50-day SMA ($885).
Investment suggestions
Short term (1-4 weeks): Current price levels are suitable for building positions in batches, with a strict stop loss at $870. Mid-term (1-3 months): Pay attention to approval progress, and add positions if it breaks above $950. Long term (6 months+): Approval of the ETF will open up space beyond $1,200.
Grayscale officially submitted the S-1 application for the BNB spot ETF to the U.S. SEC on January 23, 2026, at 14:03 UTC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the code "GBNB". This marks the second institution to apply for a BNB ETF after VanEck, indicating mainstream financial institutions' recognition of the BNB ecosystem. The current BNB price is $892, which has gently increased by 0.47% within 24 hours after the announcement and is currently in a healthy consolidation phase. Technically, the key support level is at $870, with the derivatives market open interest maintaining a high of $2.7 billion and a slightly positive funding rate of 0.189%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment.
The S-1 document submitted by Grayscale aims to convert the existing BNB trust into a spot ETF, with Coinbase serving as the primary broker and custodian. This ETF plans to hold physical BNB, allowing investors to gain exposure to BNB through traditional brokers without directly holding cryptocurrency.
BNB is currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $121.5 billion, and is the core token of the Binance ecosystem.
The market's reaction to the ETF news has been relatively mild, with only a 0.47% increase within 24 hours, indicating that the market had some expectations or is suppressed by overall market sentiment.
Immediate support: $870 (Bollinger Bands lower limit)
Resistance level: $912 (20-day SMA), $954 (Bollinger Bands upper limit)
Current status: The price is fluctuating around $892, below the short-term moving average but above the 50-day SMA ($885).
Investment suggestions
Short term (1-4 weeks): Current price levels are suitable for building positions in batches, with a strict stop loss at $870. Mid-term (1-3 months): Pay attention to approval progress, and add positions if it breaks above $950. Long term (6 months+): Approval of the ETF will open up space beyond $1,200.
#eth走势分析 From a technical perspective, $ETH is currently in a key support area. The daily RSI is 39.67, indicating an oversold condition. The price is testing the lower Bollinger Band support at $2,896, and the conditions for a technical rebound are ripe.
Bearish factors (institutional selling pressure):
Continued outflows from ETFs constitute major pressure:
In the past week (1/17-1/24), the net outflow from ETH spot ETFs was approximately $553 million,
BlackRock's single-day maximum sale reached $431 million (1/23),
Three consecutive days of net outflows: 1/22 (-$341 million) → 1/23 (-$65 million) → 1/24 (-$60 million), , Bullish factors (bottom signals): Fear and Greed Index at 24 (extreme fear), usually corresponding to market bottoms,
Retail investors are selling off significantly, while whales are buying at lower prices (recently, a whale purchased 3,947 ETH at an average price of $2,991).
Trading Suggestions
Short-term traders: Consider light positions to go long around $2,900, with a stop loss at $2,850.
Partial profit-taking can be done in the $3,050-3,100 range.
Long-term investors:
Current valuation is at a historical low, MVRV shows an undervalued state. Implement a staggered buying strategy, with a focus on observing whether ETF outflows slow down. Key buying range: $2,800-2,900.
Bearish factors (institutional selling pressure):
Continued outflows from ETFs constitute major pressure:
In the past week (1/17-1/24), the net outflow from ETH spot ETFs was approximately $553 million,
BlackRock's single-day maximum sale reached $431 million (1/23),
Three consecutive days of net outflows: 1/22 (-$341 million) → 1/23 (-$65 million) → 1/24 (-$60 million), , Bullish factors (bottom signals): Fear and Greed Index at 24 (extreme fear), usually corresponding to market bottoms,
Retail investors are selling off significantly, while whales are buying at lower prices (recently, a whale purchased 3,947 ETH at an average price of $2,991).
Trading Suggestions
Short-term traders: Consider light positions to go long around $2,900, with a stop loss at $2,850.
Partial profit-taking can be done in the $3,050-3,100 range.
Long-term investors:
Current valuation is at a historical low, MVRV shows an undervalued state. Implement a staggered buying strategy, with a focus on observing whether ETF outflows slow down. Key buying range: $2,800-2,900.
After seeing many friends in the group making a fortune from the airdrop of the seeker phone today,
it's a lie to say I'm not envious. The project party $SKR has been artificially inflating the price, and getting involved in such projects really means a good year ahead.
I also came across Mr. P's summary on the sol phone,
it's no wonder that others are making money,
with awareness, execution ability, and willingness to invest,
it's inevitable for them to earn big bucks.
The combination of poor awareness and poor execution results in a huge opportunity gap.
Indeed, there is a vast chasm between knowing and doing.
Recently, the airdrop price of Binance Alpha has been quite good, $SPACE surprisingly has a hundred U big gain, it has been a long time since such a significant airdrop occurred.
Image
However, some are happy while others are distressed. This Alpha airdrop's Spacecoin is the world's first decentralized payment system (DePIN) based on satellites, which can create a trustless internet connection globally.
If you participated in another intodotspace sol prediction project, then it's unfortunate for you. I didn't participate, but I roughly looked at the process. The project originally planned to raise 2.5 million, but as many people participated, they raised 20 million. Seeing so much money, the project party finally decided to raise 14 million.
With more money, the airdrop tokens won't be valuable, and it's highly likely they will break even, leading to user losses, and thus participating users began to protect their rights.
I don't know how things will unfold later, but the current new issuance market is indeed quite challenging for making money.
it's a lie to say I'm not envious. The project party $SKR has been artificially inflating the price, and getting involved in such projects really means a good year ahead.
I also came across Mr. P's summary on the sol phone,
it's no wonder that others are making money,
with awareness, execution ability, and willingness to invest,
it's inevitable for them to earn big bucks.
The combination of poor awareness and poor execution results in a huge opportunity gap.
Indeed, there is a vast chasm between knowing and doing.
Recently, the airdrop price of Binance Alpha has been quite good, $SPACE surprisingly has a hundred U big gain, it has been a long time since such a significant airdrop occurred.
Image
However, some are happy while others are distressed. This Alpha airdrop's Spacecoin is the world's first decentralized payment system (DePIN) based on satellites, which can create a trustless internet connection globally.
If you participated in another intodotspace sol prediction project, then it's unfortunate for you. I didn't participate, but I roughly looked at the process. The project originally planned to raise 2.5 million, but as many people participated, they raised 20 million. Seeing so much money, the project party finally decided to raise 14 million.
With more money, the airdrop tokens won't be valuable, and it's highly likely they will break even, leading to user losses, and thus participating users began to protect their rights.
I don't know how things will unfold later, but the current new issuance market is indeed quite challenging for making money.
#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 This is favorable for the macro economy, beneficial for the US stock market, and gold has reached a new high.
This actually also indirectly benefits the cryptocurrency market, which is also favorable for $BTC and $ETH .
This actually also indirectly benefits the cryptocurrency market, which is also favorable for $BTC and $ETH .
First exclude Guangdong and Guangxi
Is this table of dishes from the south or the north?
#美国加密市场法案延迟
1，
$FIGHT All the money sent has been refunded. I participated in the public offering, sent in $5000 but only got 30u in,
The project layout is very large, all the public offering money has been refunded, and the tokens were directly airdropped to the wallet, but the airdrop was a bit small, only 711 coins were given, not even 20u, and after deducting the 10u KYC cost, it seems that I only made 10u?
2，
A few days ago, Binance Alpha PRE-TGE's $SENT has become tradable, which is not bad. Recently, there have been few large movements, and after deducting costs, the value of the airdrop is over a hundred dollars.
3，
Today gold has reached a new high again and again, feeling like all the funds are going to buy gold, silver, and copper, and not buying Bitcoin anymore.
Gold is at a new high, but the price of $BTC is on the verge of collapse, truly a world of ice and fire.
The FUD on Twitter says that the price of Bitcoin will drop below 20,000. If Bitcoin drops below 20,000, then other altcoins will be in a bloodbath.
The risk of holding altcoins is too high.
Holding altcoins is not as good as shorting altcoins; maybe the odds are higher.
1，
$FIGHT All the money sent has been refunded. I participated in the public offering, sent in $5000 but only got 30u in,
The project layout is very large, all the public offering money has been refunded, and the tokens were directly airdropped to the wallet, but the airdrop was a bit small, only 711 coins were given, not even 20u, and after deducting the 10u KYC cost, it seems that I only made 10u?
2，
A few days ago, Binance Alpha PRE-TGE's $SENT has become tradable, which is not bad. Recently, there have been few large movements, and after deducting costs, the value of the airdrop is over a hundred dollars.
3，
Today gold has reached a new high again and again, feeling like all the funds are going to buy gold, silver, and copper, and not buying Bitcoin anymore.
Gold is at a new high, but the price of $BTC is on the verge of collapse, truly a world of ice and fire.
The FUD on Twitter says that the price of Bitcoin will drop below 20,000. If Bitcoin drops below 20,000, then other altcoins will be in a bloodbath.
The risk of holding altcoins is too high.
Holding altcoins is not as good as shorting altcoins; maybe the odds are higher.
#黄金白银价格创新高 doesn't know why the big pancake $BTC has dropped below 90000 again, $ETH has also dropped below 3000, this market is too exhausting, it hasn't stayed up for a few days and has fallen again.
It feels like the influence of geopolitical factors is too significant, what is Greenland again, the beautiful country is just domineering, if it has its eyes on a country's resources, it will just go and grab it, without even putting on a show.
Image
Recently, while browsing Ostium, I learned about XAU, XAG, and also SPX, NDX, HG, NVDA, and PLTR. What do these codes represent?
In a nutshell:
XAU: Gold
XAG: Silver
SPX: S&P 500 (U.S. stock market index)
NDX: Nasdaq 100 (technology stocks)
HG: Copper (economic barometer)
NVDA: Nvidia (AI computing power)
PLTR: Palantir (AI + government big data)
For people in the country, it's not easy to buy these unless you have a Hong Kong stock or U.S. stock account to trade,
Actually, you can also buy and sell U.S. stocks on the blockchain now, and there are some Web3 exchanges that support trading U.S. stocks, which is quite convenient.
It feels like the influence of geopolitical factors is too significant, what is Greenland again, the beautiful country is just domineering, if it has its eyes on a country's resources, it will just go and grab it, without even putting on a show.
Image
Recently, while browsing Ostium, I learned about XAU, XAG, and also SPX, NDX, HG, NVDA, and PLTR. What do these codes represent?
In a nutshell:
XAU: Gold
XAG: Silver
SPX: S&P 500 (U.S. stock market index)
NDX: Nasdaq 100 (technology stocks)
HG: Copper (economic barometer)
NVDA: Nvidia (AI computing power)
PLTR: Palantir (AI + government big data)
For people in the country, it's not easy to buy these unless you have a Hong Kong stock or U.S. stock account to trade,
Actually, you can also buy and sell U.S. stocks on the blockchain now, and there are some Web3 exchanges that support trading U.S. stocks, which is quite convenient.
#美国核心cpi低于预期 No wonder $ETH and $BTC have fallen sharply again, it's the crypto winter ~ the crypto market no longer has independent trends.
Today, upon looking at @ETHGasOfficial's air drop eligibility, besides tweeting on X, it is also necessary to consume more than 0.5ETH, which is really difficult.
For those who previously bound x for tasks, it was all in vain, and in the end, only 2 accounts were eligible. The project's scope is too small, right? For many newcomers to the circle, how could a wallet possibly consume as much as 0.5ETH? Only those wallets that are very early would have the possibility to consume such a high amount of 0.5ETH.
Wasted time participating in the binding of hundreds of wallets and x tasks, it was really all in vain.
Today, what disgusted me the most is the project @HeyElsaAI $ELSA , which was done last year. I MINTed an NFT and completed tasks to earn over ten thousand points, but ended up not being eligible for the airdrop.
So frustrating.
I originally thought there would be at least some rewards, but unexpectedly, there were no rewards at all.
The old method of making easy gains has failed again.
Today, I played this @axisrobotics flower watering task, which was quite fun. It allows control of a robot's movements through a browser, and it's said that in the future, this method could be used to control real robotic arms to perform mechanical actions.
This project is positioned in the crypto-driven physical AI infrastructure sector, addressing the data bottleneck in the robotics industry through simulated data collection and decentralized incentive mechanisms.
As for whether it can be realized in the future, it depends on the efforts of the project team.
For those who previously bound x for tasks, it was all in vain, and in the end, only 2 accounts were eligible. The project's scope is too small, right? For many newcomers to the circle, how could a wallet possibly consume as much as 0.5ETH? Only those wallets that are very early would have the possibility to consume such a high amount of 0.5ETH.
Wasted time participating in the binding of hundreds of wallets and x tasks, it was really all in vain.
Today, what disgusted me the most is the project @HeyElsaAI $ELSA , which was done last year. I MINTed an NFT and completed tasks to earn over ten thousand points, but ended up not being eligible for the airdrop.
So frustrating.
I originally thought there would be at least some rewards, but unexpectedly, there were no rewards at all.
The old method of making easy gains has failed again.
Today, I played this @axisrobotics flower watering task, which was quite fun. It allows control of a robot's movements through a browser, and it's said that in the future, this method could be used to control real robotic arms to perform mechanical actions.
This project is positioned in the crypto-driven physical AI infrastructure sector, addressing the data bottleneck in the robotics industry through simulated data collection and decentralized incentive mechanisms.
As for whether it can be realized in the future, it depends on the efforts of the project team.
The New York Stock Exchange will support tokenization of US stocks for 24/7 trading,
Isn't this similar to the crypto world?
In the future, the 'u' of the New York Stock Exchange will be stablecoins,
And there will be no concept of 100 shares anymore,
Investors will be 10u warriors, hahaha
Investors can also trade US stocks like playing with meme coins. #USStockForecast2026
Isn't this similar to the crypto world?
In the future, the 'u' of the New York Stock Exchange will be stablecoins,
And there will be no concept of 100 shares anymore,
Investors will be 10u warriors, hahaha
Investors can also trade US stocks like playing with meme coins. #USStockForecast2026
今日本想再补一些ETHGAS的，不过早上看到DC里面说今日8点已经快照了，时间真的太紧了，还没好好上号就结束了，而且这个项目上了币安alpha，真的短平快的感觉；
Tradegenius这个项目更是快，前天发公告说要追溯积分，因为短短几天就注册了150w地址，其实明眼人都知道不可能有这么多真实用户的，这里面起码有95%的水分，都是工作室的地址，项目方已经意识到这个问题了，因此必然是严查女巫的。
如果最早刷了交易有积分并且躲过女巫的话，那么挺赚的。
现在就是太卷了，因为总积分是固定的，所以大家就是互相在卷。
项目方就爽了，手续费上不封顶。
不过，项目方是要奖励真实用户，因此怎么做一个真实用户就最为关键。
这个项目第一季截止时间的4月12日，卷吧。
现在撸毛的话速度要快，效率要快，不能慢悠悠了，比如ETHGAS这个项目从知道截止日期开始就应该买好三件套然后全力去注册，
虽然不知道能不能有空投，但是三件套成本低，即使空投数量少，也不会亏钱的。
晚上看到一个消息：纽约证券交易所将实现美国股票全天候交易，这是美股币圈化了，24小时交易，不知道这里面会有什么样的商机。
Tradegenius这个项目更是快，前天发公告说要追溯积分，因为短短几天就注册了150w地址，其实明眼人都知道不可能有这么多真实用户的，这里面起码有95%的水分，都是工作室的地址，项目方已经意识到这个问题了，因此必然是严查女巫的。
如果最早刷了交易有积分并且躲过女巫的话，那么挺赚的。
现在就是太卷了，因为总积分是固定的，所以大家就是互相在卷。
项目方就爽了，手续费上不封顶。
不过，项目方是要奖励真实用户，因此怎么做一个真实用户就最为关键。
这个项目第一季截止时间的4月12日，卷吧。
现在撸毛的话速度要快，效率要快，不能慢悠悠了，比如ETHGAS这个项目从知道截止日期开始就应该买好三件套然后全力去注册，
虽然不知道能不能有空投，但是三件套成本低，即使空投数量少，也不会亏钱的。
晚上看到一个消息：纽约证券交易所将实现美国股票全天候交易，这是美股币圈化了，24小时交易，不知道这里面会有什么样的商机。
Returning to the old method of farming,
Today I am doing @ETHGasOfficial and @renaissxyz, I need to use x and discord, I have to complete tasks, and then I found that many of the previous local three-piece sets have expired, I can only buy them again,
There is a feeling that I have returned to the POW farming state, which is to compete for work volume,
Today is actually the anniversary of Trump issuing MEME coin $TRUMP ,
One year ago today, the great President issued a meme coin,
Making many people wealthy and causing many to lose money,
The coin price dropped from a high of over 80u to now 5u,
A drop of over 90%+
Wealth transferred from the pockets of the majority,
To the pockets of a few,
So everyone can demystify these meme coins,
In the end, they will all go to zero,
They are all bubbles,
It’s about who buys fast and runs fast,
Whoever believes in this stuff is the one paying the bill.
Today I am doing @ETHGasOfficial and @renaissxyz, I need to use x and discord, I have to complete tasks, and then I found that many of the previous local three-piece sets have expired, I can only buy them again,
There is a feeling that I have returned to the POW farming state, which is to compete for work volume,
Today is actually the anniversary of Trump issuing MEME coin $TRUMP ,
One year ago today, the great President issued a meme coin,
Making many people wealthy and causing many to lose money,
The coin price dropped from a high of over 80u to now 5u,
A drop of over 90%+
Wealth transferred from the pockets of the majority,
To the pockets of a few,
So everyone can demystify these meme coins,
In the end, they will all go to zero,
They are all bubbles,
It’s about who buys fast and runs fast,
Whoever believes in this stuff is the one paying the bill.
This is fun $哭哭马 The storytelling is interesting. This emoji might even make it to the Spring Festival Gala
$我踏马来了 When will this coin be listed on the contract? Based on historical experience, short it!
今日说点玄学的：赤马红羊劫
今天聊点玄学的东西。
说实话，我以前并不太相信玄学。
但经历得越多，越发现一件事——
人，可能真的有命数。
放在历史的洪流中看，个体其实非常渺小。
我们更像是浪潮上的一朵浪花，被时代裹挟着向前，
很多时候，谈不上选择，只是随波逐流。
对绝大多数普通人来说，真正能改变一生命运的机会窗口，可能只有一到两年。
合适自己的机会，往往就集中出现在那么短短的一两年里。
如果抓住了，人生就可能完成一次跨越阶层；
如果错过了，下一次，也许要再等十年、二十年，甚至一辈子。
2026—2027 年，有个说法是“赤马红羊劫”。
大致意思是：
每六十年左右，会出现一次社会结构层面的巨大变动，比如——
科学革命文艺复兴战争爆发文明的兴起与更替
当然，这本质上仍然是一种偏迷信的历史总结，
信不信，全凭个人。
但如果只从现实层面看，2026 年可能是站在一个剧烈变革的起点。
AI 正式进入大规模应用阶段
写作、编程、作曲、视频生成，已经是基础能力；
一些工厂直接训练机器人，直接替代人工操作，
很多人会失业；虚拟货币 目前体量仍然不算大
但马斯克曾说过一句很有意思的话：比特币的本质是能源这已经不只是“数字黄金”的金融叙事，
而是把它看作未来能源的一种载体。
如果能源才是终极硬通货，那这个逻辑的想象空间就完全不同了。一边是漂亮国逐步立法、拥抱创新，另一边则是严厉打击。能源与资源正在被重新定价
黄金创下新高，白银大幅上涨，
接下来，铜、铝等大宗商品，不排除继续走强。
再叠加——
地缘政治的演变、
货币政策的转向、
新能源与 AI 产业的剧烈变动，
会不会真的发生一些，能被后人拿来“印证”所谓赤马红羊劫的事件呢？
看《权力的游戏》的时候，小指头说过一句话我印象深刻：
混乱，是阶梯。
真正的机会，往往就藏在混乱之中，
只是大多数人看不到，或者不敢抓。
回头看过去几十年：
互联网浪潮房地产红利人口红利
有的人稀里糊涂地踩中了风口，命运就此改写；
有的人擦肩而过，只能拍断大腿。
你真的觉得有的人暴富了是因为能力吗？可能踩中了风口，猪都可以起飞，运气的成分很大。
对普通人来说，其实不需要看懂所有机会。
只要在对的时间——
看懂一个，重仓一个，
也许，就足以改变自己的一生。
说实话，我以前并不太相信玄学。
但经历得越多，越发现一件事——
人，可能真的有命数。
放在历史的洪流中看，个体其实非常渺小。
我们更像是浪潮上的一朵浪花，被时代裹挟着向前，
很多时候，谈不上选择，只是随波逐流。
对绝大多数普通人来说，真正能改变一生命运的机会窗口，可能只有一到两年。
合适自己的机会，往往就集中出现在那么短短的一两年里。
如果抓住了，人生就可能完成一次跨越阶层；
如果错过了，下一次，也许要再等十年、二十年，甚至一辈子。
2026—2027 年，有个说法是“赤马红羊劫”。
大致意思是：
每六十年左右，会出现一次社会结构层面的巨大变动，比如——
科学革命文艺复兴战争爆发文明的兴起与更替
当然，这本质上仍然是一种偏迷信的历史总结，
信不信，全凭个人。
但如果只从现实层面看，2026 年可能是站在一个剧烈变革的起点。
AI 正式进入大规模应用阶段
写作、编程、作曲、视频生成，已经是基础能力；
一些工厂直接训练机器人，直接替代人工操作，
很多人会失业；虚拟货币 目前体量仍然不算大
但马斯克曾说过一句很有意思的话：比特币的本质是能源这已经不只是“数字黄金”的金融叙事，
而是把它看作未来能源的一种载体。
如果能源才是终极硬通货，那这个逻辑的想象空间就完全不同了。一边是漂亮国逐步立法、拥抱创新，另一边则是严厉打击。能源与资源正在被重新定价
黄金创下新高，白银大幅上涨，
接下来，铜、铝等大宗商品，不排除继续走强。
再叠加——
地缘政治的演变、
货币政策的转向、
新能源与 AI 产业的剧烈变动，
会不会真的发生一些，能被后人拿来“印证”所谓赤马红羊劫的事件呢？
看《权力的游戏》的时候，小指头说过一句话我印象深刻：
混乱，是阶梯。
真正的机会，往往就藏在混乱之中，
只是大多数人看不到，或者不敢抓。
回头看过去几十年：
互联网浪潮房地产红利人口红利
有的人稀里糊涂地踩中了风口，命运就此改写；
有的人擦肩而过，只能拍断大腿。
你真的觉得有的人暴富了是因为能力吗？可能踩中了风口，猪都可以起飞，运气的成分很大。
对普通人来说，其实不需要看懂所有机会。
只要在对的时间——
看懂一个，重仓一个，
也许，就足以改变自己的一生。
If the BSC meme heats up again, and if you don't want to gamble, then why not buy more $BNB
Binance Alpha has already become a chaotic mess, I truly don't understand.
What are all these things? I really can't make sense of it.
I feel like I'm just an old fool.
Today, CZ is again giving hype on X about predict, saying the prediction market will always have a big opportunity.
The last time CZ did this was for the perp dex赛道, $ASTER , and I didn't take it seriously then, truly regretting it now.
This time I'm actually tempted to rush to get a spot to join the predict...
Anyway, the rule is: either go all in to bet on right or wrong, aiming purely for profit, or go all in on hedging to earn points.
I've finally figured it out: the coins from BN TGE are always centered around CZ and Heyi, the couple singing in harmony.
Whenever CZ says something, Heyi replies right away, and it's highly likely to get into Alpha; if they repeat it several times, it's very likely to get listed on futures or spot as well.
What are all these things? I really can't make sense of it.
I feel like I'm just an old fool.
Today, CZ is again giving hype on X about predict, saying the prediction market will always have a big opportunity.
The last time CZ did this was for the perp dex赛道, $ASTER , and I didn't take it seriously then, truly regretting it now.
This time I'm actually tempted to rush to get a spot to join the predict...
Anyway, the rule is: either go all in to bet on right or wrong, aiming purely for profit, or go all in on hedging to earn points.
I've finally figured it out: the coins from BN TGE are always centered around CZ and Heyi, the couple singing in harmony.
Whenever CZ says something, Heyi replies right away, and it's highly likely to get into Alpha; if they repeat it several times, it's very likely to get listed on futures or spot as well.
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