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BTC 1H
The first resistance level for the rebound has failed to break, leading to a decline.
Currently, it still belongs to a large fluctuation range, with the bearish target at 86.5-86.9K, supporting a rebound to go long.
The short position for the rebound is at 89.8K, 91.4k

Binance has launched contracts for Tesla and other US stocks, which in essence is a major negative for altcoins.

The idea that altcoins have a 'long-term value approaching zero' has gradually become an implicit consensus between exchanges and retail investors. After repeated harvesting of projects like $MYX and $RIVER, retail investors are not only unwilling to buy altcoins anymore, but even their interest in shorting is rapidly fading—because even the volatility itself is disappearing.
When an asset has neither bullish sentiment nor bearish interest, its existential significance is essentially over.

Cryptocurrency exchanges have begun to intensively introduce US stock targets, essentially placing 'computable assets' and 'pure narrative chips' side by side in the same trading scenario.
What are US stocks? They are companies with real businesses, cash flows, financial reports, and can be valued;
while the path of most altcoins is: financing → issuing tokens → continuous selling pressure, where the core function is not to create value, but to consume liquidity.

When these two types of assets compete for funds and attention in the same market, the outcome is almost certain.
On one side are assets that can be accounted for, verified, and compounded over the long term;
on the other side are chips supported by stories, with extremely short cycles and continuously collapsing expectations.
Where the funds will flow to doesn’t require much analysis.

This represents a typical 'dimensionality reduction strike' for altcoins.
Altcoins themselves are a game of existing stock with limited liquidity, and now they have to compete head-on with strong fundamental assets like US stocks, which will only further accelerate marginalization and clearance.

However, from a longer-term perspective, this may not be a bad thing.
Let the projects that should go to zero actually go to zero, allowing the market to complete a thorough cleansing, perhaps it is a necessary prerequisite for the cryptocurrency industry to restart.

看到币安合约下架的项目，有几个共同点：
1、长时间不作为，币价自由落体
2、没有主动做市痕迹，只有被动的 “卖货”，最后把项目都掏干了
3、市场上没有热度，少被人提及

币安合约被下架是很可惜的sb行为，项目方真的不知道自己失去了什么 ；

聪明的项目方，会找主动做市商，通过币价的拉升、爆空的方式赚钱，然后跟项目方分成，既可以保住自己的壳，还可以成为项目方赚钱的金窝窝，现在上币安合约越来越难，壳也是越来越值钱，居然能混到被币安下架真的太无知了！

$common ：上线后一直跌，拿到了头部顶级的投资机构的投资， polychain 、dragonfly、framework 等的投资；

$cudis ：也是去年火热的depin项目，前几天还有人问项目方要不要卖壳；

$ept ：当年估值5个亿的游戏，无语了

一个可以让你链上交易快速进步的方法，可能有些标题党，但我建议你看完。

打开GMGN，输入自己的地址，最好保存为书签，方便你每天不断打开。

1、每天复盘，你亏钱的交易是为何，你赚钱又是为何？

2、对这些交易的缘由分类总结12345，打好标签，亏钱的路径不要碰。

3、不要有所谓的不撞南墙不回头，聪明人不会和市场抬杠。

4、赚钱的路径，坚定复制下去，完善交易系统，加强系统信念。

5、积小胜为大胜。

举个例子，譬如我自己的交易分类。

①主流割肉亏损
②杂毛1m以下亏损
②二段杂毛亏损

然后我发现，我踏马1m以下的标的不能听风就是雨的瞎几把冲，不然全是贡献流动性了。

于是我进步了，我便知道，1m以下标的，没调研清楚前，不碰。

二段杂毛，等不到好的进场位置，说白了就是不符合交易系统的进场点位，不碰。

主流币，分仓进入，分时间段买入，心态到位，结果必然好。

很多人会说踏马错过了一些怎么办？放心吧，能错过的都是命中不该有的。

❤️
有句话很有道理，你可以感受一下：你其实能赚多少钱，都是注定的，你在1个标的里如果能赚100万，你打100个标的，也是100万，只要你该赚到这个钱你就会赚到，不需要太多复杂的操作。

所以很多时候，交易的频率太高，不妨停下来复盘看一看，盲目的乱冲只会害了你。

最后，祝大家都能走出自己的交易之路，并守住胜利的果实！
👊

What is Ethereum's new upgrade ERC-8004?

I just checked, and simply put, it means Ethereum is preparing to provide each user with a 'digital personal assistant' (AI Agent).

In the past, if you wanted to stake some ETH or buy a newly launched meme coin, you had to open your wallet, connect to the official website, authorize, jump through pages, and the process was very cumbersome. With E-8004, you just need to say to your phone, 'Help me take the 10 ETH sitting in my wallet to earn the highest returns,' or 'Help me find the hottest meme coin on Twitter recently and buy $100 worth.'

The AI will automatically run errands for you in the background, signing contracts; you don’t need to worry about how many steps are involved, just look at the results. It’s essentially a universal language: if I have Secretary A, and you have Secretary B, and they don’t know or trust each other, ERC-8004 allows these different AI secretaries to 'scan each other’s codes and add friends,' achieving secure collaboration.

In summary, the current blockchain is too inhuman and has too high a barrier. You have to click this and that, authorize, and choose chains. With it, Ethereum becomes simple enough even for elderly people who are not very tech-savvy. In short, the future is AI taking over the technical work for us; Ethereum will no longer just be a ledger; it aims to become a super financial brain that can think and get things done.

When a bull market comes, it's false to say you're not moved.
I have chased gains and experienced FOMO before, and the result was classic— the faster I rushed, the higher I stood, the stronger the wind.

When BTC fluctuated, I used to overthink: is it over? Am I being tricked into the market again?
Later I realized that the market is actually swaying most of the time; stability is the norm, yet I always wanted to prove how smart I was during its fluctuations.

I truly started making money when I chose to stop.
I don't randomly switch tracks, nor do I spread my investments everywhere; I only focus on one or two directions.
If I can eat, I eat; if I can't, then forget it.

Now I don’t chase rankings or add drama.
The strategy is set, and the position is in hand.
The market will come back and forth, but if the capital is gone, then it’s really game over.

Binance life triggers daily oversold signal.

Daily oversold ≠ immediately going all in to catch the bottom.

Right now, its structure is deteriorating, EMA moving averages have broken down, and jumping straight in can easily catch you halfway up the mountain.

A prudent approach is to:

Wait for it to first make a decent rebound, return above the EMA moving average, stabilize, and then combine with the 1-hour or 4-hour level oversold signals to form a resonance of larger and smaller cycles.

At this point, consider trying a small position, with a clear stop-loss and a stable mindset.

Lastly, a friendly reminder, to demystify altcoins, do not get caught up just because their names seem "full of pattern", and risk your hard-earned money against the capitalists' scythe...

$ZEC $ZEN $DASH

These privacy coins can be acquired now. Layout for a potential government shutdown in the United States. If a shutdown occurs, the privacy coin sector may see a significant surge! Last time there was a shutdown, ZEC skyrocketed several times.
This time, I think the probability for Dash is higher.
ZEN is favored by Grayscale, and the control is too severe.
ZEC has already seen a significant increase before.
Only Dash has insufficient concentration of chips, but it has enough popularity.
In this wave, Dash will at least rise above 500.

This year's opportunities in the second-tier shanzhai are indeed quite numerous.

Cryptocurrencies with over ten times returns include HYPE, ASTER, M, RIVER.

Especially the three giants HYPE, ASTER, RIVER, which can see returns of dozens of times.

When each project just comes out, it can capture the signs of certain opportunities.

Before the TGE, HYPE was highlighted by CZ and TOLY as the next mainstream in the perp dex track.

Before the TGE, ASTER was the project that CZ first frequently retweeted and had high hopes for.

Before the TGE, many institutional leaders were optimistic about RIVER’s business growth potential.

This is also why I kept asking everyone to track their data when they just launched.

Have you noticed how opportunities arise:

When the top few in the industry are optimistic about a future track, it’s worth focusing attention on the first project to emerge.

When the top 1 or 2 projects are being praised daily, they must be deeply explored, analyzed, and engaged with.

When a project has flywheel potential in its business, it’s time to record data and monitor the fundamentals.

If you want to make money, besides not being lazy, you really need to think critically.

All opportunities are traceable.

$BTC

Last night saw huge fluctuations, back and forth

The reason for this is because there was a divergence between the large funds on the buying and selling sides

They used capital to test the market's supply and demand

Clearly, after a spike, the price continued to rise

On the 1-hour level, HH and HL have been formed, but we have not seen a structural breakthrough

In the Asian time zone, the price touched the MSS resistance level, and the breakout failed (in fact, liquidity in the Asian time zone is relatively low, which is normal)

Now, as long as the low point is not broken, we can look forward to a strong bullish candle during the active hours in the US to break through

It is important to emphasize that we still maintain a strong viewpoint with a weak holding strategy

I am observing the 15-minute chart, waiting for this 15-minute downtrend to be broken, then establishing a 30% position to bet on a breakthrough on the left side.

People who often play with memes find it hard to go a day without looking for a few Ca to charge. I have a good method for this, which is to make the funds temporarily unable to reach the wallet. With these funds unable to reach the wallet for a short while, I can minimize my losses by at least tens of thousands of U over the next few days. Looking back, the memes I wanted to buy in the past two days have basically dropped to zero.

Those who can buy are apprentices, those who can sell are masters, and those who can hold are the great ones. Let us all strive towards the realm of greatness.
🙏🙏

This kind of currency, RIVER, should not make you envious, and do not touch it if it has nothing to do with money! Primarily, it will challenge your technical framework and disrupt your investment logic. You can defeat the Tsinghua and Peking University debate team, but you will never win against the village aunt at the village entrance...

Rise 1000 times and retail investors still lose money
It's not the market issue, but the shakeout issue, which is an unchanging rule in the cryptocurrency world for the past ten years,

The core strategy of the main players is not to crash the market,
but to wash repeatedly, especially after falling from 100 to 10, retail investors become numb, because at the peak, human nature is greedy, but it hovers between 10 and 8. Retail investors are extremely panicked, as the most fearful moments occur at the bottom. At the real top, no one wants to exit; at the real bottom, no one wants to buy. It makes you give away your best chips when "it hasn't dropped much."

Retail investors do not die from the crash,
but die from:
Rising for a while, shaking for a while, you feel there’s no hope, and you switch, while the original continues to soar.

From the result, it's "missing out,"
from the essence, it’s that you have been managed by the rhythm.

Therefore, what truly kills retail investors is never the downturn,
but making you doubt your direction in the upward trend. Therefore, in the cryptocurrency world, direction ranks first, and then there are bottom chips; patience and technical indicators are the last things to run.

The cruelest part of the market lies here:
It doesn't blow you up,
it washes you away.

So this is why so many KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) don't talk to you about the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency world, no one talks to you about macro global M2, the comparison of the sham industry, the ten-year residual value of altcoins, doesn't discuss the market share of Ethereum during the bull market, doesn't talk about Bitcoin's peak escape indicators, not a single one pays attention, always making retail investors chase highs and lows within the K charts, relying on fans to sustain life. It is the macro and market capitalization that determine the direction of bulls and bears, not the candlestick charts.

BTC Market Analysis 1/27

Bitcoin was in an oversold + divergence state yesterday, making it unwise to short, as a rebound is likely. Currently, it has rebounded about $2000 from the bottom, but this is merely a rebound, and it will continue to fall after the rebound.

1) First resistance level for the rebound 90500-91000
2) Second resistance level for the rebound, bearish OB on the 4-hour chart above 92000
3) Daily support level below 83700 is a strong support.

Main and side lines of various SOL chain sectors.

1. Leader $PENGUIN
🐧
, top buffs stacked, selling across the internet.

2. Claude line: $SOL, Ai variety of tomatoes, non-living entities caring for living ones, @himgajria leading the team, narrative fully engaged, $Calwd lobsters, ai assistant fully focused.

3. New sector Mr. Beast + gene mouse: $Dale.

4. $psyopanime, attention from Musk.

5. Humorous meme: $testicle magic orb.

6. Nostalgic retro, original authors/designers, etc. claiming, $clippy, $buttcoin, classic from 2016, etc.

7. Agentic ai: $MIA, claimed by developers.

8. TikTok popular: $objects, etc., etc., etc.

9. Modern version of Frankenstein: $Lumen

The cryptocurrencies that are aggressively promoted are likely to be controversial 'junk' projects. It is best to pair them with some hedging mechanisms so that there is enough short-selling power. On the contrary, the so-called 'high-quality' projects are all being bought long, which means they can only sell to everyone.

It seems that the market makers have found a new balance with the exchanges. Compared to the previous version of AIA, Coai is more stable, reducing costs through rate manipulation while ensuring the safety of the exchange's insurance fund during trading.

Today, the spot premium began to rise, while the price action did not continue the trend of a significant decline in volume. Instead, there was a rebound with volume afterwards. Although the bearish structure continues for now, I always feel that it is impossible to create a "major drop" market here.
Future thoughts:
1. If the weekly chart is forming a continuation structure of a decline, then it will maintain a fluctuating downward trend, gradually approaching the previous low position before truly breaking down.
2. However, if the price can rebound back to the middle track this week, then it will still be a large range fluctuation structure, meaning that the expected rebound above 100,000 is still possible...
To be honest, from a long-term perspective, I still tend to be bearish, but I can't help but feel unwilling because there hasn't been a strong rebound that gives people "renewed hope," similar to the structural trap on March 27, 2022...