加密大宝贝

1. It's sol's turn to surge, I saw $gas a few days ago but my attention was on bsc so I didn't buy. Unless something unexpected happens, bsc will continue to compete, the next step will probably be to launch another contract, I guess it's 'I’m here', because the bsc foundation bought 'I’m here' and Binance Life twice together. For entertainment only~

2. Why does the usd1 trading competition feel like not many people are paying attention? Is the focus being sucked away by the battle between sol and bsc? Yesterday's $安 pulled back, I didn't dare to act when it was too high yesterday, if it continues to pull back I might take action, after all, the competition lasts for 10 days, this is only the second day, I feel there will be movements later

3. rollx tge is here, $roll is on alpha today, the time hasn't been announced yet. Projects that can operate for more than a year without VC are not short on funds, let's see how the project team will operate, a low opening is just giving an opportunity, who knows alpha might just be a starting point.

The more abstract it gets
Grandparents and parents gather together, quickly completing a four-generation family reunion
Is this the fate of those who call out 'mom'?
When returning home for the New Year, your dad asks what you bought— you say, 'I bought mom'

The market improved slightly, so I started trading again. Last night before sleeping, I placed two orders:
One long position at $BREV 0.3, but when I woke up, it hadn't been executed. It was just a tiny bit away from the lowest price, and seeing it made me heartbroken.
One long position at $BTC 91600, which was executed, but perhaps I was too sleepy and accidentally touched the decimal point, entering 5.000 instead 😤

I'll never place orders when I'm not fully清醒 again. Missing out on two hundred million, I'm a perfect example of what not to do. Today, I'm planning to participate in the Binance TGE project $ZTC. The TGE is at 241 minutes, from 4 to 6 PM, and alpha will be available at 6 PM.

Btc has reached 93000 today, and the market is getting better too. A big golden dog has appeared on the sol chain, and the coin price is looking very green. Binance has also listed the spot $Brev, there's a feeling of prosperity. What I mentioned about being optimistic in January seems to really be coming back.

I took a look at the Brev chips, with an initial circulation of 25% and an initial selling pressure of about 5.5%.
Currently, the pre-market price is 0.45, corresponding to a market value of 110 million, and an FDV of 450 million, with a pool price of only 0.4.
At 8 o'clock, Binance Alpha, at 9 o'clock, community airdrop, at 10 o'clock, Binance HODLer airdrop.

Overall, the background of Brev is not bad; this FDV is not high, just the initial selling pressure is a bit larger. Moreover, normally, Binance hasn't listed spot for so long + this is the first spot of 2026, so the overall performance shouldn't be too bad.

After the market warms up, TGE projects will gradually follow up. The @rollxfi that was supposed to have TGE last month has been delayed, which is a smart choice. I guess it should be this month, and those who have harvested rollx's treasures can look forward to it.

The last month of 2025 was spent in the painting door of btc, thinking about my 2025 which was very simple:
Collecting hair, saving money to earn a little;
Playing contracts, the earnings after May were relatively high;
Sold part of $BNB at 1100 with a cost of over 500, sold $ETH at 3500, but looking at the current price, it's not bad now.

However, after 1011, most of the profits above have been given back, and I didn't make money over the year. So one thing I learned this year is: position management and controlling my hands.
This year, the change in my mindset is that I have become more peaceful, able to accept everything happening naturally, unlike last year when I would always feel anxious due to external factors that might disrupt plans or things that didn't happen. But it could also be that I really have no other options～
But I believe that next year I will become a better version of myself. That's it, see you next year～

A Few Truths about the Crypto World

1. Narratives are not meant for investment; they are meant to 'provide liquidity'.
The loudest narratives often occur when it is most necessary to take over.

2. The biggest misconception among retail investors is missing a hundredfold.
What is truly lacking is position discipline, stop-loss rules, and not over-leveraging.

3. You think you are researching projects, but in fact, you are researching emotions.
Prices are more driven by atmosphere than by fundamentals.

4. Most people do not lose due to cognitive issues; they lose due to timing.
They hesitate when they should be aggressive and become overconfident when they should pull back.

5. Bear markets are most prone to 'capital safety incidents'.
The less liquidity there is, the more black swans appear, leading to fishing, authorization, and malicious contracts, ultimately realizing that you didn't lose in trading but that your wallet is gone.

6. The witch hunt seems fair, but in reality, the power of discourse is always in the hands of the project party.
How rules are set, how they are checked, and how to appeal, it's all up to them; if you encounter unscrupulous parties, you can only accept your fate.

Why is BTC rising now but still very boring?

The core of a boring market is insufficient liquidity: without a continuous influx of capital, the market enters a difficult mode where it can rise, but it's hard to feel the abundance of opportunities everywhere.

Moreover, you feel it's dull not because it doesn't rise, but because the rises lack sustainability. BTC has been stuck in a range; even when it rises, there's not much to do. In such a structure, short-term trading mostly involves back-and-forth harvesting, and many who follow the market see the excitement but end up with continuous losses. In this kind of market, not overtrading is key; the best solution is to wait.

The current boredom is just the appetizer for a trending market, not the final chapter. Those who can endure this phase will be qualified to enjoy the main course later. Continuous observation, risk control, and patience are essential.

At the beginning of the month, the support price of $ASTER is the cz cost price. Half a month later, cz also lost money.
When cz publicly shared the order at 200wu, it was really thought that this time would be different, but in the end, it was all just retail investors.
However, looking at it from another angle, losing money together with cz is also a kind of fate.

I saw someone say that the prediction market is not competitive, but in reality, the competition in the prediction track has become fierce, and the liquidity diversion risk is high. However, there are a few projects that need to be followed up on from time to time.
1. predictdotfun's open interest broke $10 million, with a daily trading peak of $13.5 million, definitely the second in the BSC prediction market. The weekly points cycle has ended, entering a 3-day settlement period.

2. Probable and Predict were launched one after the other in quick succession, still being attracted by liquidity. Coupled with the blind mining points mechanism, it will deter some participants. The depth is not very good right now.

3. 42space designs attention and truth modes, narrating differently from traditional prediction markets; however, the former seems to be easily disturbed by external factors, like the case of Brian Armstrong.
Beta data for the past month: trading volume of 130 million tUSDT, 950 active traders, and a maximum profit of 6.8 million.

👆 These prediction markets are either just launched or about to launch, for now, it's better to prioritize brushing up on opinions. It seems that all the major V's are saying that TGE is coming. The first prediction market on BSC still needs to create some wealth effects, otherwise, these later prediction markets might face failure.

【Binance Alpha】New scoring method is here: Square chat room transfers can also earn points

1️⃣ Enter Binance Square
Open 'Binance Square' → Search for your nickname, go to the homepage and click 'Chat Room'

2️⃣ Add friends in the chat room
Enter the chat room → Click the upper right corner/member list to apply to add friends

3️⃣ Key point: How to transfer to earn Alpha points
In the Binance chat room, for every 2 transfers to different recipients, you will earn 1 Alpha point, with a maximum of 5 points during the event

⚠️ Note:
Transferring repeatedly to the same person will not continue to earn points, so to be efficient, add more new friends in the chat room, and everyone can help each other expand and transfer points.

The crypto market in 2025 is more mature but also harsher: 84.7% of projects are below TGE valuation, with only 15% rising.

A few thoughts on this:
1. TGE is no longer an early investment opportunity.
The decline is generally between 80% and 93%, indicating that the vast majority of projects in 2025 collapse rapidly after launch, and buying at TGE prices is often the highest point, not the starting point.

The era of "getting on board and doubling your investment" is over; now it’s a liquidity exit event: VCs and teams cash out at high valuations, and retail investors bear the crash after taking over.

2. Be cautious of high FDV projects.
Ranging from hundreds of millions to tens of billions of dollars, but actual products, users, and trading volumes often do not keep up, leading to rapid re-evaluation of the market. The market is becoming increasingly wary of excessive hype and high FDV launches, and retail investors are no longer easily buying into narratives.

New projects need to stand out with genuinely strong products, sustainable tokenomics, and real demand, rather than excessive hype.

3. Focus attention on the chip structure.
The distribution of tokens, unlocking rhythm, and holder concentration determine a project's performance in the secondary market, often more important than narrative, team, or product; it directly affects selling pressure, price elasticity, community confidence, and long-term trends.

In the future, participation in the secondary market may need to wait for a correction after TGE before considering, rather than blindly rushing into TGE. This also aligns with Binance's strategy after changing its listing mechanism.

Today there are two things to pay attention to

1. OKX Flash Earn $NIGHT has started, with a total quota of about 50,000 dollars for 5 tokens. I've seen quite a few people talking about it, so there should be a lot of participants.

2. At 10 PM @humidifi TGE, the public sale was cold opened last night and did not hit, preventing both scientists and retail investors. The total public sale is 10%, and the TGE is fully unlocked, but the selling pressure is still quite large. Detailed notes are below 👇

$WET Solana AMM DEX, TGE at 10 PM
Fundamentals:
- No VC financing, has public sale
- Total supply 1 billion, initial 23% = 230 million
- Pre-market price 0.13, corresponding FDV 130 million, market cap 29.9 million

Chip distribution:
- Binance Alpha estimated at 1%
- Public sale 10% (average cost 0.056, fully unlocked at TGE)
Whitelist: 4%, 2 million, cost 0.05
JUP stakers: 3%, 1.5 million, cost 0.05
Public sale: 3%, 2.07 million, cost 0.069

Launch schedule:
- Binance Alpha, estimated around 8 or 9 PM
- 10 PM: MEXC, TGE + public sale fully unlocked
- 11 PM: Gate, Bybit

Simple summary:
It's rare to have a background without VC, which is considered quite top-tier on Sol. After 10 PM, the selling pressure is relatively large; you can wait to see if there are any opportunities as the ICO pressure decreases. The contract has not been listed yet.

So handsome that I faint~~~