#比特币走势分析 1. Current Price and Key Levels (2026-01-30)

- The current price is approximately $84,000, which is a drop of about 9% from the recent peak.

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- Key support: 84,000-85,000 (short-term accumulation zone) → 80,000 → 75,000 → 67,000 → 56,000 (extreme target).

2. Conditions for a drop to 56,000 (must meet all)

1. Technical: Monthly closing below 85,000-88,000, breaking the 200-week moving average (approximately 50,000) and other long-term supports.

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2. On-chain and capital: 75% holding cost line (93,000) unable to recover for a long time, stablecoin liquidity continues to shrink, large institutional sell-offs.

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3. Macroeconomic and regulatory: Reversal of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve, stock market crash, tightening of cryptocurrency regulations, ETF funds shifting from net inflow to large outflow.